Conservatives 5% ahead in Communicate Research survey

You can be sure that this poll suggesting the Tories enjoy a 5% lead will receive a lot less attention than the weekend's Ipsos-MORI poll that gave Labour a 3% lead.  Today's Communicate Research survey for The Independent gives the Conservatives a 37% to 32% advantage.

The one key thing that the MORI and Communicate Research polls have in common is that the Tories are on 37%.  But whereas MORI gives Labour 39% of the vote and the LibDems just 15%, Communicate Research puts Labour on 32% and the LibDems on 18%.

The survey was carried out on Friday 22nd to Sunday 24th June - after the Ashdown offer, during the aftermath of the EU summit and partly on the day of Brown's 'coronation'.

All headline polls need to be treated cautiously at the moment but this will steady some Tory nerves.  ICM and YouGov polls are expected this week.  There may be plenty of opportunities, therefore, for Cameroons to declare that everything is well with the project and sceptics to say that the party is doomed!

The ConservativeHome poll of polls now includes MORI again.

PS This is the first time I have ever blogged from a lift.  I am stuck somewhere between third and fourth floor in our Victoria Street offices and have been for forty minutes.  Fortunately I have my Mac and an internet connection.  I hope to see daylight sometime soon!  (8.35am update: I am out of the lift and going in search of a bacon roll).

Comments

[Chris]

Meh, one good and one bad poll from two of the lesser respected companies isn't too bad considering we've had nigh on no good media coverage recently.

Not sure about ICM, but YouGov will probably still show us ahead, as they already normally show the Liberal Democrats at lower levels than other pollsters.

[601]

Wow! That was a short honeymoon!

[Tory T]

Personally, I am disappointed. I wanted a Brown bounce so he'd go to the country. Sigh.

CR and Mori are both unreliable and neither should be in ConHome's poll of polls. Mori is the only major pollster in the UK not to weight by past vote recall. As pointed out on PB.com, had Mori applied to its data the same weightings CR does, Mori, too, would have shown a Tory lead.

I'm afraid we are stuck with Brown for a while.

[Tory T]

PS - so as not to disappoint Tim, "there is nothing wrong with the Project"! :)

[James Maskell]

CR's numbers have fluctuated too much since they started. I dont trust them. A 5% lead for the Tories is probably a very soft one if true.

[EML]

Will it depend on the results of the ICM and Yougov polls as to when they will be published - i.e. good/bad for Labour/Conservatives?

[EP]

Tim, you must be the master of modern technology to get through in this digital world ... I only hope that the rest of us will be able to catch up eventually!

[TomTom]

Fortunately I have my Mac and an internet connection.

Very wise to wear a mac with all this rain.....but in a lift ?

[malcolm]

Glad you got out of the lift, have you not been paying the lift company's bill?
As regards the CR poll you're right.No sign of it all on the BBC website.

[Chris]

EML, Mike Smithson said this morning that ICM was due today, but the Guardian are likely holding it over until tommorow when Brown goes to the palace.

[Clockwork Mouse]

Keep fit and run up the stairs in future.

[Mark Fulford]

The Mori sample was heavily biased towards Labour. 35% of their respondents had voted Labour in the 2005 GE -- yet, in the actual 2005 GE, only 22% voted Labour.

This poll, and the last, are equally meaningless.

[Clockwork Mouse]

......and keep off the bacon rolls!

[Ted]

If you look at CR since their methodology changes they are far less volatile and this year trends are in line with ICM & YouGov. If the next two polls are on same basis as regular monthly ICM & YouGov wouldn't be too surprised to find Conservatives in upper 30's and Labour in low 30's as I think people have discounted Gordon Brown's assumption of power and there will be no huge swings.

[Andrew Woodman]

Helpful result but I think ICM and Yougov will be more reliable.

Lucky Tim isn't claustrophobic!

[tapestry]

They needed one nice poll for Gordon's Parade. They paid for it, and got it (just borrowed a few Liberal Democrats for the day). Now the party's over, they're handing the Liberal Democrats back again.

It was such a lovely party. Gordon looks so happy. I hope Tony gets a nice job. It's all so lovely.

[Peter Harrison]

Minor point - the "Political polls" section on the right of the page hasn't been updated since February! Can I suggest that it should either be updated or removed?

On the poll itself, I too will be happier when I see similar figures from YouGov, but this is encouraging. It will be interesting to see if all the (largely adulatory) coverage Brown is receiving at the moment makes any difference.

[Voice of Sanity]

You'd better enjoy this one.

Now that Cameron is a prisoner of the right it's probably the last lead you'll see.

[James Maskell]

You wish he was one. It would make you sound sane. Unfortunately you are wide of the mark and again are making completely bizarre comments. Go away.

Tim of Sam, can you please get Voice of Sanity off this site? Reasoned debate is welcome, but this isnt reasoned at all. Its just a pathetic attempt to kick up an argument.

[Editor]

Thanks Peter. I'll update it within 24 hours.

[Mark Fulford]

Now that Cameron is a prisoner of the right it's probably the last lead you'll see.

It's far more clear cut that the BBC is the prisoner of the left. I liked this impassioned gem from Nick Robinson last night:

The place maketh the man. A century ago it wouldn’t have seemed at all unusual to have a Prime Minister who was the son of the manse, who believed in hard work and duty and not trifling with important matters. Gordon Brown believes the country is ready for those values again. The question is, in the 21st century, is he right?

No, Nick, that is not the question.

[Graham D'Amiral]

The polls are a bit all over the place just now, so we've had one small labour lead and one fairly small tory lead, perhaps ICM will point to lib dems set to form first government for 100 years.

[James Cleverly]

I am sure lifts break down more often under a Labour government......

And don't even get me started on how much it rains now that Maggie isn't PM!

[Chris]

James, don't get me started on the colour of the sky...

Graham D'Amiral, Only MORI has shown a huge shift and seeing as it's known for it's radical swings I wouldn't count that as "all over the place".

[Frank McGarry]

Why (sob,sob) do the pollsters never ask me?

[malcolm]

Wouldn't worry about it Frank,they sometimes ask damn fool questions. Shortly before the 2001 election I was asked by a pollster (ICM I think) if I supported Europe! My reply was yes I do in the Ryder Cup. Pollsters face was a picture!

[Simon Denis]

And the moral of the story is that when Mr Cameron actually does what he is paid for and leads Tory opinion, the people know where they are, his natural supporters cheer him on and those who want something different from Labour know where to find it. Result? Favourable opinion polls. How much more momentum might he now be enjoying had he not rounded so viciously on those of us who support grammar schools? The deep underlying reason for this is that the logic of a two party system is slowly and inevitably reasserting itself. There was never any need to court the Beeb or the so-called "centre" ground. The few sensible adjustments necessary to stop us sounding too much like Peter Hitchens after a sleepless night have been gradually made. The minimum wage, the acceptance of devolution - we've done all that. The "modernisers" have simply cottoned on to the changes and taken them several steps too far.

[EML]

As long as the Guardian's ICM poll doesn't show a Labour lead of 5% - that would be splashed everywhere on the day Brown becomes PM.

I wonder how far into the paper they'll bury it if it actually shows a 5% Conservative lead.

[Jack Stone]

Rather bizzare text above Simon. Firstly you say Cameron should lead opinion, then you say he made a mistake by leading opinion and should have followed opinion in the party. I don`t think you have really got your thoughts clear there somehow.
As far as I can see David Cameron is doing what he is paid to do, lead the party and as rightly made few concessions to the prejudices and obsessions of the party`s right-wing.

[Alex Swanson]

"there is nothing wrong with the Project"

We're all doomed! Doomed I tell you, Doomed!!!

[Curly]

Hope you found the bacon butty after your unfortunate but temporary imrisonment in the lift, spare a thought for Alan Johnston (or Tony Blair - his next outing looking for a bacon buttie may be very arduous!)

[Yet Another Anon]

Personally, I am disappointed. I wanted a Brown bounce so he'd go to the country. Sigh.
Gordon Brown's been a politician long enough by far to know how unreliable opinion polls are - after all for much of the time between October 1974 and April 1992 Labour or the Alliance were supposedly poised to sweep to power according to the media and opinion polls; after April 1992 supposedly there was goping to be a snap General Election to increase the Conservative government and up until well on in that summer the media were talking of the Conservative Party as being unbeatable; of early elections since 1945 - only 1966 has really worked out well, October 1974 achieved limited results, it may well be no coincidence that both involved Harold Wilson as PM and Edward Heath as Leader of the Opposition. If Labour had held on in the 1950's until 1954 or 1955 it is quite possible that they would have won a majority with more than 50% of the vote, equally both the snap elections of 1970 and February 1974 were dismal failures for Labour and the Conservatives respectively!

If Labour goes for a General Election this year it is doubtful it would win a majority, next year it might scrape a majority, if it keeps up a steady recovery in 2009 it will be ready to win a comfortable majority and then Gordon Brown can have people from other parties in the government if he wants and appear magnanimous rather than simply clinging on to power.

[Matt Davis]

Wow now there's a first a Jack Stone posting wholly correct in both spelling and grammer.Shame about the content of course.

[Spellchecker]

and grammer

GRAMMAR

[Mike A]

"Wow now there's a first a Jack Stone posting wholly correct in both spelling and grammer.Shame about the content of course.

Posted by: Matt Davis | June 26, 2007 at 13:00"

Is this a joke?

[Observer]

If Labour had held on in the 1950's until 1954 or 1955 it is quite possible that they would have won a majority with more than 50% of the vote,

1959 "Life is better with the Conservatives, don't let Labour ruin it"

2009 "Life is better with Labour, don't let Tories ruin it"

Prosperity and Peace.

I do not remember any period in my lifetime when the economy has been so sound and the prosperity of our people at home so widely spread; but we must also do what we can to extend a generous helping hand to the Commonwealth family and others overseas.

As for peace, it is of course the supreme purpose of all policy. I have lived through two wars and all my efforts are directed to prevent a third. Events of the last few months give me hope that we may be moving into a more constructive period. Vital international negotiations lie ahead and I ask you to continue to entrust them to a Conservative Government

Eight years ago was a turning point in British history. The Labour Government had failed in grappling with the problems of the post-war world. Under Conservative leadership this country set out upon a new path. It is leading to prosperity and opportunity for all.

The British economy is sounder today than at any time since the first world war.

Conservative policy is to double the British standard of living in this generation and ensure that all sections of society share in the expansion of wealth.

While we have been in charge of the nation's affairs, many more of the good things of life have been enjoyed by families large and small, and so long as we remain in charge they will be able to fulfil many more of their hopes and ambitions.

By raising living standards and by social reform we are succeeding in creating One Nation at home. We must now carry this policy into the wider world where the gap between the industrialised and the underdeveloped nations is still so great. This can be done by individual service, by increased trade and by investment, public and private.

We are determined to keep Britain a great and go-ahead country, leading the world in important branches of technology, and translating its technological advance into productive capacity with a high and rising rate of investment.

This is how we shall set about this task in the next five years.

1. EDUCATION
During the next five years we shall concentrate on producing a massive enlargement of educational opportunity at every level. The necessary work is already in hand. Four programmes, each the biggest of its kind ever undertaken in Britain, are gathering momentum.

Training colleges for teachers, which will now provide a three-year course, are being expanded by nearly two-thirds so as to get rid of over-large classes; the number of students at universities is to be further increased by at least one-third; new technical college buildings are opening at the rate of one a week; and we shall spend some £400 million by 1965 to improve the quality of our school buildings.

Already, up and down the country, hundreds of new modern schools are showing the shape of things to come. Our programme will open up the opportunities that they provide for further education and better careers to every boy and girl; and by 1965 we expect that at least 40 per cent will be staying on after fifteen.

On the curative side there will be a big programme of hospital building. We already have sixteen new general or mental hospitals and some fifty major extension schemes under way; over the next five years our target is to double the present capital programme.

We intend to review the system of criminal justice and to undertake penal reforms which will lead offenders to abandon a life of crime. A scheme for compensating the victims of violent crime for personal injuries will be considered.

Our policies look to the future and offer the best hope of prosperity and peace with justice.

1959 Manifesto The Conservative Party

Three years after Suez, the Prime Minister succeeded by his Chancellor Harold Macmillan, and Conservatives won the election against Gaitskell's Labour Party

[Tory T]

It's always very amusing when people get hoity-toity about the linguistic skills of others, and then spell things incorrectly in their own snooty posts!

[Simon Denis]

Jack, you make a superficial debating point which turns exclusively on the use of language. When I refer to "leading Tory opinion" I don't mean dragging the party in any old direction so long as it gets centrist votes - the Hilton line; I mean setting oneself plausibly at the head of an entire body of attitudes and articulating them as forcefully as possible.

[Oberon Houston]

I think its always difficult for an opposition party to bite the government when the economy is doing reasonably well. Often people really need to see a need for change to want to switch. Since Labour is evidently still hungry for power, unlike the Tories in ’97, who were exhausted), we still face a big task to win. The biggest factors, as I see it to success in the next election are (in rough order):

1. Economy (2% more on rates will lead to a housing collapse?)
2. Party unity (essential if want to be taken seriously)
3. Media (difficult to project message without this)
4. Personality of party leader?
5. Gaff free zone (if it’s close this can be all important, e.g. Kinnock in 1992)
6. Policy (gets much more important if there is a really stupid policy in there)

Thing that has be confused about these polls is the awful numbers the LibDems are getting, yet silence from them. Surely something’s got to give soon?

[Simon Denis]

The next big thing will be the fall of "Ming". He's not a complete duffer. He wrongfooted the ghastly Mandleson on Question Time some weeks ago. But when all is said and done, he's just another complacent Establishment hack. His answer to any problem seems to be more money. Courtesy of the taxpayer of course. The voters are tired of that. Should one of the Orange Book boys take his place, however, Cameron goose might well be cooked.