Brown bounces

As warned yesterday evening, two opinion polls this morning will put a smile on Gordon Brown's face.  An ICM poll for The Guardian* gives Labour a 4% lead and YouGov for The Daily Telegraph* puts the  Labour lead at 3%.

I cannot find any below-the-headline-detail within The Guardian coverage but there is additional information from YouGov:

• Brown enjoys a 35% to 23% advantage over Cameron on who would be the best PM - this contrasts with a 30% to 25% advantage for Cameron in April.
• Labour is back in the lead on economic competence; 35% to 27%.
• By 52% to 37% voters believe that it is possible for Labour to enjoy a fresh start under Brown.
• 43% are optimistic in some way about Brown as PM but 49% are not optimistic in any way.
• By 48% to 25% voters think Brown is an asset to Labour.
• By 37% to 28% voters think the 'new' Cabinet looks much the same as the old one.

Fieldwork for the ICM survey began after Brown became PM on Wednesday and was finished on Thursday night.  The Telegraph says simply that their YouGov survey was only undertaken after Brown became PM.  It is possible that these polls will only have captured some of the early honeymoon effect, therefore.  Yesterday's newspapers were, for example, very positive about Brown's Cabinet.

Today's Telegraph also covers David Cameron's embrace of 'the politics of and':

"In Wednesday's speech, which was overshadowed by Mr Brown's coronation as Prime Minister, Mr Cameron said he believed in "the politics of and" rather than of "or".  The party leader, according to Conservativehome.com, delighted some shadow Cabinet members, when he said they would be "committed to protecting the environment and would be a party of free enterprise; a party that was tough on crime and its causes - particularly family breakdown; a party that would campaign for a referendum on the EU treaty and would prioritise international development"."

* The changes shown in the graphic above are different from those reported in The Guardian and Telegraph.  That is because ConservativeHome compares with the most recent polls by ICM/ YouGov for any media organisation rather than for the most recent poll for that particular media organisation.

Comments

[R.Baker.]

It gets better by the day,for Brown,Dave needs to come up with something really substantial before the recess.

I know a few who will be calling for DC to go by the end of September if we dont get back in front by then,many of them post on here regularly too.

[Common Sense]

R. Baker - are you a mad UKIPer or a Labour troll? You say:

"I know a few who will be calling for DC to go by the end of September if we dont get back in front by then,many of them post on here regularly too."

Tell you what, let's have list of names so we can judge for ourselves how much weight we should attach to these calls. This is virtual reality politics. A poster with a bogus name warns that other posters with bogus names will be calling for the dismissal of the most successful Tory leader for years because the new Labour PM is enjoying a bounce in the polls.

It's strange, isn't it? Brown is trying so hard to position himself as a centrist. Why? I wonder what he knows that our foaming chums on here don't? Perhaps that elections are won by the leaders who can most convincingly portray themselves as moderate. That's why Maggie played it softly softly in 1979 but could afford to move right against a self-evident extremist like Foot in 1983.

I admit that there are some Tories who want to get rid of DC. They are the thick and the mad - the people who have despised him from day one. The Simon Heffers and Edward Leighs who pose as incorruptible men of principle and keepers of the true faith but have no idea what it takes to win a general election and probably don't care about the result as long as they have the satisfaction of emoting and posturing.

Cameron has the right strategy for beating Brown. His critics haven't a clue.

[CCTV]

have no idea what it takes to win a general election

and had no role in writing the 2005 Manifesto or running the campaign.....yes that is true.....who did write the manifesto and run the campaign ?

[cleo]

The party has to hold its nerve and continue with the Cameron agenda. Returning to focus on Europe and tax cuts will show that the Conservatives have not changed and are just like the party of the past and Brown will win.

[EML]

I have to say that Brown has done quite well in his first few days. There certainly haven't been any hiccups and the media have obviously given him a free ride.

It just depends what he does in the next three weeks until the recess. Will he have any big announcements up his sleeve? He's made his appointments and he has gone as far as he can with personnel - unless another defection is in the offing.

We have to keep steady and calm until the immediate gold-plated honeymoon period has ended. Then we'll see what our policy groups report and how well Cameron manages to mould these possible policies into his vision for tackling Britain's social problems.

The two by-elections should be the immediate priorities, especially in Ealing Southall where a shock victory shouldn't be dismissed too easily.

[HF]

The Ealing Southall by election has become very important.

2nd place or better = Progress

[simon]

What we see in the polls is an increasing tendency toward 'mass indecision' in the country about the top 2 parties ( i think the LibbyDems are effectively screwed next Gen Elec). Is it 'indecision'- or a 'could not care less' attitude? We will soon see... If it's the latter we are in trouble.

[English Parliament now]

Brown might be gurning from ear to ear this week, but an email is doing the rounds, which will scare the haggis out of him. Pass it on to everyone in your inbox. Let's see if the "listening Prime Minister" can spin his way out of this one, without revealing his true, dictatorial self -

THE PRO-REFURENDUM RALLY – THE FIGHTBACK STARTS HERE!!

We are organising a Pro-Referendum Rally soon. As rally organisers we do not care which way you vote as long as you get the opportunity to vote. The rally platform covers the full spectrum of British society, and is inclusive of all those people who have a single unifying purpose – to force the Government to hold a referendum on the latest European treaty.

NEWS UPDATE: SUPPORT IS COMING IN FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE WORLD!!

However the Pro-Referendum Rally will not happen unless YOU ALSO step up to the mark – even if that is just an email wishing the Rally success. However see STEP 2 below for more specific volunteer categories. If you can help contact Dr Jonathan Wilson Email: [email protected]

OUR WEBSITE WILL BE UP AND RUNNING SOON!!

REGULAR RALLY UPDATES TO BE POSTED IN THIS COLUMN!!

Below is the Plan of Action.

1. STEP 1 –THE PARAMETERS FOR THE RALLY
a. The sole aim of the Pro-Referendum Rally organisers is to provide a public event through which all British people may focus their efforts to regain their right to a vote on the latest European treaty
b. The Pro-Referendum Rally organisers do not care which way you wish to exercise your democratic right – just vote!
c. The public event to be peaceful and conducted in full accordance with the law
d. The Pro-Referendum Rally organisers will be non political to the extent that any communications (web, press etc) will deal with organisational matters of the rally only

2. STEP 2 – A SMALL ACTION ORIENTATED STEERING GROUP AND AN ARMY OF NATION WIDE VOLUNTEERS

THE RALLY ORGANISERS NEED THE FOLLOWING FOR THE STEERING GROUP:

a. A good lawyer who can deliver the legal permission for the rally
b. Operations expert to co-ordinate route marshals and the on-the ground activities
c. An qualified accountant
d. An advisor group – people with lots of rally experience and/or public credibility

THE RALLY ORGANISERS NEED THE FOLLOWING FOR THE ARMY OF NATION WIDE VOLUNTEERS:

e. Volunteers
i. As route officials (5 groups – North, South, East, West and Central London – see STEP 3)
ii. In every village, town and city to hang posters, distribute leaflets and collect petitions

If you fit the bill (or you know someone who does) on any of the above categories and want to get things going send an email with a short qualifying statement to [email protected]

3. STEP 3 - THE ROUTE, DATE AND A RALLY AGENDA

a. Subject to revision but would include 4 convenient routes into London, North, South, East and West each starting 5 miles out
b. 4 routes to merge in central London and conclude at Buckingham Palace
c. Date: Monday 3rd September 2007 (provisional)
d. Rally agenda
i. Set up petitions in every village, town and city to collect signatures of those who cannot attend rally
ii. Pro referendum public speakers representing all walks of British society for conclusion of rally

Together we can create a context for the British pro referendum voice to be heard

STEP UP TO THE MARK NOW!!

Contact Dr Jonathan Wilson: Email: [email protected]

Thank you Daily Telegraph for your help

Posted by Dr Jonathan Wilson (Walton-upon-Thames) on June 27, 2007 10:09 AM

[peter]

R.Baker, how dare you write here at the "Save-Dave Home" website (formerly "IDS Home")?

[Raj]

1. Someone remove the spam, please.
2. cleo is right. You guys aren't going to go anywhere by changing direction.

Seriously a conservative (small "c") agenda was tried in:

1997
2001
2005

It didn't work then, and it will not work now. Why is it some people cannot accept that? Because it wasn't hard enough? Oh sure, being even more right-wing will work! :p

As Common Sense said (very apt name), Thatcher won with a moderate position the first time around. She could only have a hard-line position later because her opponent was a left-wing loonie.

Tories cannot rely on Labour being prats anymore - they've changed. You need to keep fighting for that centre ground, even if you carefully remind people from time-to-time that you're more centre-right, because that is where the votes are!

[Ken Stevens]

We certainly have to make allowance for the honeymoon effect.

However, it nevertheless remains essential and urgent to construct and consolidate a distinctive Tory "brand" that is readily discernible within the consciousness of us ordinary consumers/voters. Otherwise it's a Cinzano/Martini situation (.. for those who recall the Leonard Rossiter/Joan Collins TV adverts, where consumers market-researched afterwards could never quite recall which brand was being promoted)

Given that the main parties are striving for supremacy over broadly the same patch of centrist territory, I find myself liking a bit of this party's policy on a topic and a bit of another's on something else, so I'll have a Martini/Cinzano cocktail please.

There needs to be a distinctive plus factor across a core range of topics. At the moment, Mr Brown can easily outflank any little Tory skirmishes. If he did something stunning on EU - perhaps even a referendum - the rug would be pulled from under your feet on everything else, however good your ideas. If it resulted in a return to national parliamentary supremacy, retrieving powers from EU, I would certainly switch my vote to Labour at the next GE, on the basis that all the things I didn't like about that party had a chance of being sorted out in subsequent GEs. I wait with interest to see whether Mr B's intentions on restoring faith in MPs includes reinstating their parliamentary relevance against the current 80% of legislation originating from elsewhere.

I would have mentioned the West Lothian Question as well, except that all three parties seem to have tacitly agreed not to tackle the problem!

[york tory]

Cameron should join the campaign to scrap tax breaks for Buy To Let (BTL) and help to bring some sense back to the housing market and assist First Time Buyers who are now priced out in most places and down to an all-time low of 8.9% of the market.

http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/yorknews/display.var.1507104.0.end_tax_break_for_buytolet.php

[Andy Stidwill]

There are 2 important things to watch out for: how long this honeymoon period goes on for, and how high in the polls Brown can take Labour within that honeymoon period.

[Oberon Houston]

Editor, what happened to the "no more long lecturing posts", how many words are in English Parliament's post?

Anyway, returning to the thread and a long winded post of my own, that Brown is enjoying a surge in support is no surprise.

A taylors manequin would do as well as him given the relief most people feel at Blairs dfinally gone. Blair was a self serving populist with no sense of duty and only good insomuch as one cannot do too much damage if you don't actually care. Brown will enjoy a much longer surge in support than most people think, it will only be after his 'changes' take effect that this will really diminish, which is about a year in time frame. This is why he will likely call for a spring election. This gives him just enough time to get traction on policy and on an election footing.

Cameron can do little about this as its largely outwith his control. But he should stay the course and do the best he can, his strategy is good and he can beat Brown with it. A move to the right will only repeat the mistakes of the past. And, sorry Tim, 'and' theory is only just that dressed as change. The bloggers on this site did not elect Cameron to be leader, the members of the party did, by a huge magin.

Ironically CH played a big part in that. Ironic given that this site does not really represent the grassroots, despite best intentions, but largely the right of the party and UKIP supporters. A region of political belief that is a graveyard for those members of the Conservative party who would rather that Labour and Brown were in opposition not power.

[michael m]

Years ago I bought a record from Central Office- the late Iain Macleod's speeches and broadcasts.The record is called "In pursuit of Excellence" I recommend that all Tory MPs listen again to these as they have much to learn.

He showed by the power of a few words how you can demolish a Government. It used to be said that Macleod was the only Tory Harold Wilson feared and when you hear the recordings you will realise why and what a powerful force he was.
Is there anyone in the Party today whom Brown fears? Where is our Iain Macleod?

[David Graves-Moore]

Is it suprising that Brown has bounced Labour up in the polls ? The Conservative Party must start advocating Conservative polices rather than aspiring to be “the heir to Blair”. To quote Malcolm (29th June) out of context “Toryism has become afraid to speak out”. Admittedly this is not entirely the result of David Cameron’s desire to seem trendy, because things have been moving this way for some years now. Look at our pathetic record on the question of political correctness. The Party has been afraid of being called old fashioned, etc.
As an example of the supine way that the Party strives to appear cuddly, look at the departure of Tony Blair.
So Tony Blair has gone at last. Why did we have to endure the sickening sight of a standing ovation for him on his last appearance as Prime Minister in the Commons ? Worse still, why did the Conservative MPs join in (at David Cameron’s bidding) ? Is it any wonder that so many of the public are tired of politicians who do not mean what they say ? Is there really ANYONE on the Conservative benches who admires Blair’s “achievements”, whatever they are supposed to be ?
A final question (for the moment) did any of the Conservative MPs have the courage to do the right thing and sit in stony silence during the applause in the Commons ?

[William MacDougall]

"Common Sense" writes in response to Mr. Baker: "Tell you what, let's have list of names calling for DC [to go by the end of September]"

Well Mr Sense, I see you hide your name too, like many Cameron critics, and supporters, on this site for a variety of good reasons. Anyway, I use my real name, and am still a member of the party (Association Chairman 2001, Parliamentary Candidate 2005), and I certainly join Mr. Baker's call for DC to go. The Party will lose under Cameron because he has alienated the core Tory vote without gaining much elsewhere.

[R.Baker.]

We don't have an Iain MacLeod and that's perhaps some of us are jumping ship.

Imagine the cries and howls on here if an MP of ours jumps in the next couple of months or so.

You can cross me off your lists but I say it as I see it and isn't that what honest Forums/blogs want?

[michael m]

The kind of talk from the likes of William MacDougell makes me despair of this great party. Loyalty clearly counts for nothing these days and that's very sad.

Either we want a Tory Governemnet next time or we resign ourselves to more years out of office, where we can only talk of getting things done and nothing more.

[cleo]

The party will never win if it does not unite behind David Cameron and develop a progessive change programme for government dealing with peoples concerns: NHS, schools, environment, crime, economic stability. Tax cuts, over emphasis on Europe, attacking the leader just hand Brown the next election.

[Martin Bristow]

None of thisshould come as any surprise.It has always been obvious that the lead we held in the polls was "soft".The reality for the Cameron leadership is that even following all the modernisation the Conservative shareof the vote is hardly moved from the 2005 election.

We have wasted the last 18 months pursuing an agenda which made us look like a Blairite party just at he moment that this approach is totally discredited.We have not articulated positive policies that resonate with the demands of the ordinary voters.Instead choosing the agenda of environmentalism, when people really want good schools,streets free from crime,a choicee in health care and lower tax.

[Yet Another Anon]

Imagine the cries and howls on here if an MP of ours jumps in the next couple of months or so
Depends on what context it happens in, there has been a change of Prime Minister and appears to be something of a realignment underway - people are re-evaluating their positions so there could be a number of changes in affiliation regardless of how it is actually a result of differences of opinion between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, differences of style, or even a rebranding or merely a progression from where things are at that moment based on the opportunity of a perceived change that probably Tony Blair is genuinely mostly in agreement with - anyway the landscape has changed; with this and re-evaluation of positions there will be a number of switches including possibly people who have become Respect councillors, Independents, some Liberal Democrat MP's may defect to Labour and some Conservative MP's may defect to Labour, equally though some Labour MP's even of a Fabian outlook who have Libertarian attitudes. Equally though there is the possibility of defections from the Conservative Party to UKIP, the English Democrats and Cornerstone if it felt that the Conservative Party had lost it's way even forming it's own party.

Labour will be stronger as a result, but it does not neccessarily mean that the Conservative Party will be weaker as a result, the problem for the Conservative Party is not just one of getting Labour out of the way, but also one of having sufficient strength to form a government - the next election is going to be fought on a more intellectual basis than any in living memory, something more like the 1966 campaign in many ways probably. White Heat of Technology and focusing on innovation and David Cameron's problem is that he has found an ideal strategy for fighting the 1997 General Election which was when people were a bit fed up with politics and wanted something nondescript which was how Tony Blair presented himself at that time.

While there is still an aversion to any notions of having a substantial shift towards nationalisation prevalent in fringe Labour and Liberal Democrat elements or radical libertarianism favoured by elements of all 3 main parties, there is on the other hand now also an aversion to image based politics. People are wanting a more ideas based approach, and do not want a blurring of positions presented as being moderate - so people such as Jon Cruddas, Gordon Brown, Ed Balls, David Miliband, Vincent Cable, Nick Clegg, David Davis, IDS, Peter Lilley, John Redwood, Edward Leigh and Nigel Farage are all far more appealing to voters than before;, on the other hand people such as Peter Mandelson, Tony Blair, Charles Kennedy, David Cameron, Francis Maude and all the others who might spend more time on thinking about their image than actual policy thinking - people are sick of them now and want a harder edge but one based on solving problems not on appealing to class politics.