Brace yourself for two bad polls tomorrow...

8pm update: The YouGov/ Telegraph survey gives Labour a 38% to 35% advantage and Brown a 12% advantage over Cameron on best Prime Minister.

An ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian will put the Labour Party four points ahead (39% to 35%) and there'll be a YouGov poll for The Telegraph that is also expected to give Gordon Brown the lead. I'll provide more as soon as I get it...

A poll published in today's Economist but taken before Gordon Brown entered Number 10 (click on graphic to enlarge for details) gives Cameron relative advantages  on tax, the EU, improving schools, improving the NHS and reducing immigration.  There's nothing much to choose between the two leaders on climate change and Gordon Brown enjoys a solid advantage on strengthening the economy.  UK Polling Report has commentary here.

A Populus poll for today's Daily Politics programme on BBC1 (that was conducted at the start of this month) found that 48% agreed that Mr Cameron was "superficial and lacks any clear convictions".  40% disagreed.  36% said Mr Cameron had the "strength and judgment to be a good prime minister".  49% said he did not.  54% agreed that it was "no longer clear what the Conservative Party stands for".  36% disagreed.

Comments

[HF]

Even more reason to pile in resource into Ealing Southall. What MPs have turned up there apart from DC?

[David Brackenbury]

After the saturation coverage of Tony Blair's departure and Gordon Brown's arrival, I am not a bit suprised that Labour have come ahead in the polls. However, let's take a look at things once the new administration settles down.

We need to hold our nerve, continue the development of credible alternative policies and above all stick together!

[Henry Mayhew]

What a great test of spin and charisma.

The degree of success achieved by DC's fightback should prove instructive to us all.

[Liberal Tory]

I like to keep old newspapers on historic days. I've just dusted off my copy of the 'Independent' from Thursday 29 November 1990 - the first day of John Major's Premiership, with reports on the appointment of his first cabinet - and the first opinion poll.

I remember at the time Labour using the old "Tories have had saturation coverage" argument. But the reported poll is striking:

Harris/ITN poll, 29 November 1990

Voting intention:
Conservatives: 49%
Labour: 38%
LibDem: 9%

Best candidate for PM:
Major: 49%
Kinnock: 24%

Who do you think will win the next election?
Conservatives: 60%
Labour: 29%
Don't know: 11%

Labour's bounce now doesn't seem so big in comparison, does it?

[Alistair Burt MP]

I think we knew this would be a testing time. The attention on Brown must have an effect on his rating, and he has the advantage over DC that he can put what he has been thinking about into practice immediately. DCs policy work from his teams is very extensive in some areas, as people will see, but in Opposition we cannot produce the same immediate dividend. Time not just for DC to be tested, but the party as well. This is a tough period, but hang in there. Remember whatever held back Brown in terms of character vis a vis Blair is still there. This is very early and easy days for Brown; but has he changed? I don't think so.

[Tory T]

Very good comments all, David Brackenbury is exactly right and it's good to see an MP posting here.

Here's how Anthony Wells describes the "Brown bounce" vs Cameron-Brown underlying fundamentals:

"On every other issue Cameron is seen as likely to deliver by more people, though in most cases Cameron’s lead in the proportion of people who think he will deliver is small, and the real difference in the proportion of people who think they won’t. 26% of people think Brown will improve the NHS, 47% think he won’t - a net score of -21. 27% of people think Cameron will improve the NHS, 41% think he won’t - a net score of -14. On improving schools Brown’s net score is -16, Cameron’s -5. On protecting British interests in Europe Brown’s score is -8, Cameron’s is +5. On reducing immigration Brown’s score is -40, Cameron’s is +11.

The increasingly positive poll ratings that Gordon Brown is receiving elsewhere suggest that people wish him well and are willing to give him a chance, but these figures suggest that they don’t actually have very high expectations of him and in most cases think David Cameron is actually more likely to deliver."

We can expect a small bounce, which as pointed out above is nothing compared to the one Major got. It won't last.

[Alex Fisher]

I agree completely with Alistair Burt MP's comments, and would add how good it is to see you with us; please stay around.

I fully expect to see us on top in the polls later this year or early next year. Brown can and will mess up.

[TomTom]

Back in the Heath years 1970-74 he brought in a businessman called John Davies from the CBI to head up the Department of Trade & Industry where he was a disaster - he subsequently became EEC Negotiator...........

What Brown is doing is not new...it may not even be successful

[Benedict White]

I think Liberal Tory's post says it all, as bounces go it is not that big.

We need to hold our nerve. There is no point in running around like headless chickens as we will look like headless chickens running around!

[Chris]

No big worries, just the predictable Brown bounce which should subside over time.

Beginning to wonder whether this is a forced leader question though; 26% to be split between Lib Dems and others? Thats a drop of 11% since last month...

[CDM]

How tiresomely predictable.

We should expect nothing but Labour leads until after the party conference season.

[CDM]

The only question now is whether these kind of figures are enough to make Brown take the plunge and call an election in September.

[John]

The benefit for those of us who really distrust Brown the last few days have only emphasised everything that he is.

The spin.
The deceipt.
The oppressive need to control.
The need to have inferiors in his cabinet so he can dictate.

Now is certainly not the time to waiver. The interest rise in the next couple of weeks should start to take the sheen of his coronation!

[Andrew Woodman]

This was to be expected. It's been wall to wall Brown and Blair for a week. Let's wait for things to settle down, Brown's new ministers to show their incompetence, and for us to bring out firm policies and things will turn round.

[Scotty]

"I agree completely with Alistair Burt MP's comments, and would add how good it is to see you with us; please stay around."

I am delighted to see Alistair Birt MP posting here, a welcome addition to the threads. I agree entirely with his analysis. As Tim has mentioned already, its time to fasten the seatbelts and hold on tight. Gordon Brown will be hoping to cause mayhem, lets make sure he is left very disappointed!

[Tory T]

CDM - I most sincerely hope he does.

[eugene]

While it cannot be denied that a Brown bounce was to be expected, who on earth would have expected our leaders to pick a neeedless fight over grammar schools and NOT snipe at Labour throughout the Blair replacement campaign.

[Afleitch]

It is, as they say, a 'dead cat bounce'; the lead is small and expectedly so. Of course we must let the summer pass (where holiday plans play havock with the pollsters), and the conference season before the polls settle down enough for a clear pattern to emerge. It may take a few months, but we have to wait.

[Andrew Lilico]

It's disappointing that all Cameron's leads concern how he won't make matters worse as rapidly as Brown - they both have net negative on all the issues in which Cameron is ahead except for the EU, on which presumably the thought is that Cameron would give away less than Brown.

Then we have the odd number that Cameron would be more likely to reduce immigration than Brown. The poll does not tell us whether or not that is thought a Good Thing. (e.g. I might have thought that Howard would have reduced immigration, and regarded that as one of his weaknesses.)

We clearly need to do a lot more work to convince people that we can make things better, as opposed to simply screwing things up a bit less royally than Labour.

[Richard Tyndall]

But surely those results are entirely unsurprising Andrew. After all Cameron has made great play of the fact that on many things he is simply following the Blair?Brown agenda - taxes, NHS, spending, the environment and education. Cameron has so closed the gap between the two parties on all these issues and has moved so far towards Labour on almost every issue of importance that if the Labour position is seen by many - as I believe it is - to be poorly considered and unlikely to make things better then by implication the Cameron position is cast in the same light.

As long as Cameron continues to take the Tory party along the road that Brown and Blair have paved, they will always be seen as simply 'Labour Light'.

We will see no improvment in the polls until Cameron realises that the majority of people in this country feel effectively disenfranchised by the Tory drift to the centre and the failure of any other party to adopt an effective right of centre manifesto.

[olivepeel]

Its the exchange rate etc ..... stupid

I think we re-entered cosy decline in 2001 as per the 70's. But for the time being the trend established has not hit home. Folks with high debt ( mostly MC in their 30 - 50s ) will ignore the trend, even with higher interest rates as they only have a perspective of 2 to 4 years. Gord has a huge plus here on '' stability'' - god knows why, except that there is the £ which keeps import prices lower in a time where we have the highest inflation in europe. £ will go back to $1.5 or below, but almost certainly not in time for the election in May.

I think CCHQ have to hit hard on interest rates come October

[Richard Tyndall]

And a classic example of what I have just written is to be seem in the sidebars of this very page where much space is given up to the misleading and unscientific drivel of Peter Franklin and his climate change garbage. It is the emphasis placed on this sort of ill thought opinion that damages the credibility of the party.

[TFA Tory]

CDM - "We should expect nothing but Labour leads until after the party conference season." After a huge lead in the May elections?

If tomorrow's polls reflect the ed's predictions, May and`June can only viewed as a catastrophic Cameron failure. The Conservatives should be at least 10 points ahead of The Dour One's Old Labour.

Tory T wants a September election. October, resulting in the cancellation of the Tory conference, is more likely. At this rate, Brown will enjoy an increased majority.

The key will be the two by-elections. We have a candidate in Ealing who has no political track record and is not even a member of the party.

The lunatics are running the asylum!

[Andrew Woodman]

What is the supposed strategy which will see us 10 points ahead in the polls TFA Tory? I see it bandied about with no evidence or policy ideas to back it up.

[Malcolm Redfellow]

"Liberal Tory" and others:

Just hold on to those newspapers. I remember the Daily Telegraph editorial on the 1959 election. It promised that the Labour Party was finished for at least twenty years.

Bollocks.

[Malcolm Redfellow]

"Liberal Tory" and others:

Just hold on to those newspapers. I remember the Daily Telegraph editorial on the 1959 election. It promised that the Labour Party was finished for at least twenty years.

Bollocks.

[TomTom]

It would have been nice had the Bank of England been made independent it it was not.

The Monetary Policy Committee was moved from The Treasury to The Bank but the Chancellor still controls the selection of Non-Bank Members of The Committee and can impose them on The Governor.

They are not subject to treasury Select Committee approval and the Governor can be overruled by the Committee.....I somehow think the ECB and Fed are more independent......and I think The Bank should have its own statistical service publishing its own assessments

[William [Bill] Pipe]

Give it a week or two & we will be back on top in the polls. The so called "Brown Bounce" is very poor. We expected it, but I honestly thought he would have had a better bounce than this! There can't be much talent in the Labour Party if he has to go looking "outside" for it! Most of them have the IQ of a "Keep Left" sign.

[TomTOM]

Labour's bounce now doesn't seem so big in comparison, does it?

Yes that Poll was taken one week after Margaret Thatcher resigned......she was somewhat unpopular and Neil Kinnock was not an alternative

[Sean Fear]

Well, we've just got to take it on the chin. The Brown Bounce won't last. But we would be in a better position, had Cameron not thought it a good idea to poke traditional Conservatives in the eye. But, we must just keep our nerve.

[Matt Wright]

In the short term Brown may pull off the biggest bit of pure spin New Labour has attempted based on supposed completely new politics etc. Possibly Browns strategy is a long planned stage 2 of New Labour's smoke and mirrors reign. As such he may try for an early election if the public are conned and the polls look favourable for him. Then if he wins he would have time to try and gerrymander things even further in the hope of keeping Labour in one way or another. As an obsessional strategist he will have planned this for a while. He may be thinking that leaving things too late would allow the public to see through his spin about change and for interest rates and housing problems to come to a head. There is little doubt he has been plotting but other than this I am not in anyway taken in by him, most of what he is proposing policy wise will be a disaster I'm afraid,

Matt

[Goldie]

I am hardly a chearleader for Project Cameron, but the Editor should know better than hype such useless polls. Things need to settle, we'll know more after the summer.

[anonanaon]

Just what Cameron deserves after the stupidity of listening to sheer madness his advisors came out with to grab headlines from Brown.

Cameron has, single handidly, destroyed Conservative credibility and probably cost us the next election.

[David Brackenbury]

Again I say it. We need to be united. This is no time to criticise the leadership over one issue, or another. Indeed there has been a Labour bounce, but this week, who could have expected anything else?

As things settle down, we will have much more time to proceed with our own changes and review the policies that we have.

Gordon Brown has calculated his reshuffle and the matter of Quentin Davies to cause the maximum damage to the Conservatives. It has not been the success that Labour have hoped for, partly because DC drew all the political heat out of PMQs and also because Labour's problems are not so easily solved.

It will be an extremely interesting few months, but as other contributors to this thread have remarked, we will be in a better position to analyse the position after the Conference season.

I bet Gordon Brown and his team are doing the same thing!

[Rinka the dog]

I'm a big supporter of an early election - how else can we guarantee that Ming will stay in place until polling day?

[TFA Tory]

Andrew Woodman wrote "What is the supposed strategy which will see us 10 points ahead in the polls TFA Tory?"

My views are the same as TFA's Hon Chairman, Riger Helmer. As a founder of the "Reinstate Roger" campaign, I am surprised that you ask that question. Have you sold out, Andrew?

Perhaps you applied to join the Candidates List. If you have, prepare for disappointment as the Camerloons will not let you near a winnable seat. So let's turn to your question.

The British people (rather than the metrosexuals who dominate Cameron's inner circle) want

- Large cuts in taxation and regulation;
- Out of the corrupt and undemocratic EU
- An end to the Nanny State;
- More grammar schools;
- Choice in "public" services;
- Opposition to green and health fascism; and
- Prosecuting muggers, burglars and thieves rather than motorists, smokers and foxhunters.

That would give us a 10% lead!

[Conservative Homer]

"The British people (rather than the metrosexuals who dominate Cameron's inner circle) want

- Large cuts in taxation and regulation;
- Out of the corrupt and undemocratic EU
- An end to the Nanny State;
- More grammar schools;
- Choice in "public" services;
- Opposition to green and health fascism; and
- Prosecuting muggers, burglars and thieves rather than motorists, smokers and foxhunters."

Maybe they do. But the BBC and public opinion drivers dont. Camerons steering the right course under the circumstances. Maybe if he can rid us of the BBC in a few years time the agenda will be allowed to change.

[Scotty]

TFA Tory, YAWN. We have heard it all before and that is why we are sitting with less than 200 MP's.
Labour are ahead the polls for about the 2nd time in months because of the favourable headlines, presenters like John Craig on Sky keep talking about the new Brown cabinet as if they were the new Beatles! Cameron does well in the polls when he is in the news.

[Pete]

If the party was supporting the policies above at least you would understand it had a purpose.

[Andrew Woodman]

TFA Tory, I would love to reply to your points but my long reply keeps coming up as spam and won't register. Annoying.

I'll just say I'm not and I doubt ever will be on the candidates list and prefer the term pragmatic to sell out.

[Raj]

TFA Tory

If it was that simple, that would have been Tory policy ages ago. But it isn't. Howard was smacked in 2005 for suggesting any tax cuts. That wasn't a random event, it's because the public are more concerned with public services being good than having more money to spend.

Choice sounds good, but what does that mean? People will fear it means the rich can have their private health care and education subsidised by them. No one likes the idea of that, apart from a very small number of voters that couldn't possibly hope to win an election for anyone. You won't be able to allay people's fears on that, however hard you try.

The problem with too many Tories is they think they can win votes by doing the very things that voters keep saying they don't want. Rather than stick your heads in the sand and put your fingers in your ears, shouting "LALALALALALA - TAX CUTS GOOD - LALALALALA - CAN'T HEAR YOU - LALALALALALA!", why not actually accept a more moderate position is needed? Otherwise why were Hague, IDS and even Howards so unpopular? Spare me the crap about a liberal conspiracy. The only people who talk about conspiracies are pathetic losers who can't accept they've lost the argument and prefer the idea they're being discriminated against than the fact they're in a minority.

Labour won in 1997, 2001 and 2005 because they were hungry for victory. The Tories will only win when their membership accepts the fact they can't win any time soon with a traditional platform. The economy is growing well, unemployment is reasonably low and interest rates are still lower than they were for a long time under Major. You can't expect people to vote out a government because of sleaze, ID cards, etc. Remember, just because you hate the Labour Party does not mean the swing-voters give a monkey's. They will vote for anyone and a fairly good economy is automatic points for the government.

So, as I said, stop thinking about the glory-days of tax-cuts and generally being selfish and think about what people want to hear. After all, after an election you can just change your drift like the Labour Party does and wrap it up in spin! Seems to work every time, so why don't you try it?

[daved]

Never mind it was good while it lasted.

[David Bodden]

After Cameron sucking up to B’Liar at the last PMQ’s then I’m not surprised support for the Conservatives have slumped. He should have said words to the effect of “you will be arrested as the first act of a Conservative government and put on trial for your crimes against the British people and when found guilty you will be executed in the same way and same place as Guido Fawkes in 1606. After that you will be handed over to stand trial for war crimes”.

The line of “not revealing our policies because Labour will steal them” is total bollocks. It makes the Conservatives look like they have no policies at all. People need hope. People need to believe that those that committed crimes against them will be brought to account and the victims have their lives repaired.

[Jaz]

No need to worry, bound to be a bounce. Just wait for the next HOME OFFICE scandal... and labour will be down with a bump.

[Torygirl]

I'm not surprised that the polls have slipped. Seeing Cameron encouraging the Tory MPs to stand and give Blair an ovation was enough to make people realise that Cameron is Blair MkII.

[Seabiscuit]

ICM/Guardian 08/12/90 45 43 9 +2
Gallup/Telegraph Dec 90 43 40.5 10.5 +2.5
MORI/Times 19/11/90 38 46 12 -8
ICM/Guardian 10/11/90 33 49 13 -16
Gallup/Telegraph Nov 90 44 41 10 +3

Keep whistling in the wind lads and lasses.Here's the actual message of Major's bounce in terms of polls, anything from a 3% lead to a 16 deficit.As Anthony wells quite rightly states on his polling report site all polls pre 92 are a little suspect due to the lack of 'weighting' for likelihood to vote and weighting by past vote.The fact is Cameron has been unable to breach 40% in the polls despite having an all but leaderless third term government to shoot at for almost 12 months.Those aren't the polling figures of an opposition leader on the way to number 10...they are Neil Kinnockesque ..

[Ken Adams]

Conservative Homer
"Maybe they do. But the BBC and public opinion drivers dont. Camerons steering the right course under the circumstances. Maybe if he can rid us of the BBC in a few years time the agenda will be allowed to change."

We do not elect the BBC, If that organisation is working against Conservative values it is up to Conservatives to challenge it. A clear commitment to break up the BBC by the leadership because it is working against the wishes of the people of this country might well be a better answer than caving in running scared and designing polices which the majority of the people of this country simply so not want.

[TomTom]

All we get is people stating what they think goes on in Gordon Brown's mind.....they don't know....they simply parrot some line on a newsletter or Email from some propaganada unit.

The issue is to address the voters and give them reason to believe there are alternative policies. So far we have the impression that there is no alternative to Blair and that the Conservatives are relaxed about his approach to things and want to take up where he left off.

It is not impressive to electors to hear about Gordon Brown from the Media, Gordon Brown from Labour and Gordon Brown from the Conservatives.......the story becomes simply Gordon Brown master of all he surveys

[ToMTom]

A clear commitment to break up the BBC

No. A clear commitment to decriminalise the TV licence fee and stop sending people to prison for non-payment is a far better theme......simply make the BBC pay its own costs of collecting the licence fee...the public will do the rest

[city trader]

Brown's honeymoon with the electorate will not last long as the cracks in our over-indebted hollowed-out economy become increasingly clearer.

Jeff Randall sums it up perfectly in the Telegraph:

".....As (Alistair Darling) ploughs through the nation's balance sheet, he will quickly work out that the "golden legacy", which Brown inherited from Ken Clarke, has been largely squandered. Behind a diaphanous veil of economic success is an ugly accumulation of private and public debt, the pain from which is only just starting to be felt.

If we were about to embark on a fresh start, in which honesty and clarity prevailed over cynical manipulation, Darling would come clean on the scale of his predecessor's profligacy.

He would explain why, after a decade of unbroken economic expansion, more than five million Britons are claiming benefits. He would admit that, despite hundreds of billions being tipped into health and education, there is chaos in the NHS and criminally low levels of literacy at many state schools. He would put back at least some of the money pilfered by Brown from pensioners and offer more help to those who are bereft.

None of this, however, will be part of the new Chancellor's brief. Instead, as bankruptcies rise, homes are repossessed and Britain's economic performance sags under the burden of rising taxes and sluggish productivity, Darling's task will be to sweep up the piles of dung left behind by Brown, all the while tugging his forelock and thanking Gordon for the job."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/29/do2902.xml

[TomTom]

I see from this morning's FT that a £2 billion cut in NHS capital spending was imposed on England alone just before Brown switched jobs.....

[Yet Another Anon]

No. A clear commitment to decriminalise the TV licence fee and stop sending people to prison for non-payment is a far better theme......simply make the BBC pay its own costs of collecting the licence fee...the public will do the rest
Better to merge it with Channel 4 and expand the commercial activities and trim the number of channels, maybe get rid of BBC Local Radio & BBC Regional TV or transfer it to Local Authorities and leave it to them whether they maintain some kind of radio services or not - if for example services in particular languages locally or particular religious services are deemed appropriate and at a cost to the Local Authority if they wanted to fund it and it would be left to them if they wanted to maintain them, whatever the balance would be between private and public and how it would be funded - although still with oversight by Media Regulators and the NAO.

Some or all of BBC TV could then be sold off and BBC National Radio and anything else left (News 24 perhaps for example?) could be merged into Channel 4 as a private charity limited by guarantee.

Besides funding through advertising breaks there are also subscription services, sponsorship of programmes and as a charity the new organisation could also accept donations from the public that could have tax paid with them - either for the organisation as a whole or for specific types of programme making. Then of course there is m,oney to be made from programme and film archives that could bring it in revenue, Oneword after all does not use advertising, but is funded by Channel 4.

[frustrated tory]

"I see from this morning's FT that a £2 billion cut in NHS capital spending was imposed on England alone just before Brown switched jobs....."

and the worst of it is, TomTom, is that no Tory spokesman has yet been on the media to comment on these NHS cuts (which don't effect Scotland or Wales) despite the story being all over the front of the Financial Times.

Are the opposition hibernating?

[TFA Tory]

Raj's comment defies belief. He wants to surrender our Conservative beliefs and principles without making a public case for individual freedom, capitalism and national sovereignty.

Thatcher won three elections with those policies. She was only defeated by the spineless Europhiles, wets and establishment toffs who despised her, her beliefs and background.

It was the sleaze and negative equity, caused by joining the ERM, that led to electoral defeat in 1997. Hague was badly advised by the ex-SDP clique of Finkelstein, Nye and Cooper. IDS had a poll lead when he was undermined by the power-hungry "modernisers" who had failed under Hague.

After 10 years of failure and spin, the voters now want to return to successful, traditional Conservative policies. Cameron is only offering more failed Blairism so the voters are turning to Brown in desperation.

[Edward]

The fact is you can't fatten a pig on market day. It was always going to be a long hard slog - we have to work to get much of the middle and lower middle classes to come back to us. It's vital we keep slogging away.

[TomTom]

Posted by: Yet Another Anon | June 30, 2007 at 11:05

I have a feeling you could not get elected with your plans for the BBC.....but decriminalising the BBC licence fee would gain votes

[Conservative Homer]

"We do not elect the BBC"

?

I don't recall saying we did.

[malcolm]

Glad that on this thread at least the overall reaction to the Brown bounce has been measured and realistic.
I genuinely cannot see that GB has done anything yet to deserve the round of applause the media (not only BBC and Guadian but also others usually sceptical of the Labour party)have given him. His actions in the next few weeks will determine whether that applause has been justified or not.
We ,the Conservative party ,have to hold our nerve.

[Steve]

The Polls are RIGGED, lets not skirt around the ussue, the 'Pollsters' are in McLabours pockets just like the media and they all 'do as they are told'.

[TomTom]

The Polls are RIGGED, lets not skirt around the ussue, the 'Pollsters' are in McLabours pockets just like the media and they all 'do as they are told'.

Posted by: Steve | June 30, 2007 at 19:17

So there's no hope then - time to don your suicide belt and blow yourself up in protest......the Labour Party controls everything just as the Conservatives did for EIGHTEEN years