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I think the poll results are to be expected. Labour were bound to have a bounce once Tony went and Gordon moved in.

If the survey respondents regard Mr Brown as a 'stronger' leader than Mr Cameron, but would prefer Mr Cameron anyway; then surely that suggests Mr Brown is seen as a 'bad' leader with a firm grip on a supine parliamentary labour party?

The more personal votes seem to be about right. Cameron clearly is more charismatic than Brown, but on the substance stakes, Brown has the edge.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Brown is elected without a challenger. His mandate wouldnt be very strong. He wasnt leading the Party in the last general election and he didnt beat anyone for the top job.

We MUST MUST MUST not allow Brown to present himself as a fresh face. Every time he critiwues Blair, we should eb there asking "Isn't that your fault anyway? You were the Chancellor."

We must also try and puncture this idea that (secretive plotter and control freak) Brown is somehow an 'open' and 'straight' politician.

I think the real Brown bounce will come when he pulls us out of Iraq. The LD challenge will wither on the vine at that point.

CH: "It will be sometime after the autumn's party conference season before we can fully assess the impact of Gordon Brown on the political landscape."

Perhaps you should stop covering polls until then and resume coverage in November?

That would mean more blogspace for serious discussion.

James, very good points.

Looks like many of the Labour voters who defected to the LibDems are slowly returning to the fold.

The countdown to Ming's departure starts here. I think both main parties will be hoping it's a long one........

I agree with James too. We must ALWAYS talk about the Brown-Blair years.

With Brown announcing his plans to build 1 million new homes, it looks like he is aiming to win the support of the new generation of wannabe homeowners in the same way the house price boom has helped to win over the middle classes.

Just this suggestion of a massive increase in supply could help dampen house price inflation and prevent a sudden crash.

Brown is not going to win any beauty contests but then people didn't vote in for Bush or Sarkozy for their 'niceness'.

Let's see the parties fighting on good old fashioned policies like this.

"With Brown announcing his plans to build 1 million new homes"

Are you sure? I thought he was just asking for an increase from 185,000 to 200,000 new homes a year -- which exactly matches the last 5 years of the last Conservative government. Why should anyone be impressed by Gordon Brown's "plan"?

My gut feeling is that Brown is such an unattractive and deeply flawed character that, as Prime Minister, he will simply not establish the same rapport with the electorate that Blair did, nor come across as the sort of national leader the electorate want.

I saw him on Treasury questions last night and I couldn't help but think how terrible he was compared to Blair.

Frankly, he scares virtually everyone I speak to sh1tless. Especially women. Even if they do think he was competent as Chancellor, they don't think he'll be a competent Prime Minister.

I think he's already lost Southern England and he won't get it back. Blair was worth 50 seats and I'm convinced they will switch straight to Cameron.

Question is, whether Cameron can dispell some of his negatives to pull the other 60 seats off Lab/Libs he needs for a majority?

"Are you sure? I thought he was just asking for an increase from 185,000 to 200,000 new homes a year

Yes, he just upped the stakes. Do a Google news on 'Brown one million homes'. It was in City AM and the Mirror are running with it now.

A measure that will appeal to both homeowners (stops fears of losing equity in a big crash) and homebuyers (making property more affordable).

If 4% is it for the honeymoon, they are so screwed.

So it's going to be a two-horse race :-D

People are still reacting to Labour as lead by Tony Blair, once it is confirmed that Gordon Brown is leader - whether simply because he is the only one with sufficent nominations (this will be known when nominations close on Thursday) in which case he will be Leader Elect effectively until he is declared leader on 24 June, Tony Blair remains leader until that date and John Prescott remains Deputy Prime Minister until that date. Gordon Brown won't become Prime Minister until 27 June though, subject to approval of the monarch of course - that is both Lizzie and also Mr Blair.

Opinion polls though, especially mid-term opinion polls on voting intention are really so wildly unreliable that they are little more than a spot of entertainment.

Felicity Mountjoy makes a very valid point. By the time of Conferences the MTAS/MMC mess in the NHS should be in full flower.....August 1st is not far away and should produce a very evident problem for those entering hospitals.

This is something that can be allowed now to fester so that Brown can putrefy in August-October as the unfolding disasters leave him on the defensive - hopefully facing a well-prepared Conservative assault.

Getting a bit complacent here... When the Party starts to publish policy and the new policies have had the time to sink in, the polls will tell the probable trend for the next election. I'm confident that the Party will 'win', but i'm beginning to think a Commons majority is slowly slipping away. Why? Too much PC namby pamby publicity stunts. Churns my stomach. Won't exactly encourage the 'millions' of lost voters to start coming back to the polls.

YHN, your Google must be faster than mine! I can't find the story either there, or at The Mirror. Can you provide a link?

This slight drop in how far behind Labour are is to be expected given the amount of neutral or positive news Labour are getting as a result of leadership PR etc. It is hiding the bad news that would otherwise be reported. That said we have to ensure that the true nature of the Blair-Brown project and its failings are kept uppermost in peoples minds AND we also have to say how we will be deifferent and how and where we are taking our great country. It needs the grit and substance that was correctly identified as the second phase in the Conservative revival,


Editor, YHN is Chad Noble.

He has blogged that at Guido's site. Perhaps if he recants his endless anti-Tory, anti-Cameron, pro-Brown, pro-Labour trolling he could be allowed back. Otherwise, check out his latest anti-Cameron blog on his name.

repost from Guido

yhn said...

Chad Noble

Everybody knows you are Lord Cashcroft

LoL Mong 7:18pm. Not me. Why does everyone think every malcontent is me? I'm too busy enjoying West Ham's premiership survival that I even posted something nice on Iain's site.

9:25 PM, May 13, 2007

Tory T, I made a similar observation on this thread:


YHN - Aha! Your secret is out!

"YHN, your Google must be faster than mine! I can't find the story either there, or at The Mirror. Can you provide a link?

Sure, it's here. It is pretty much as you noted, but it is being reported with the kind of headlines that non-politicos respond well to (and indeed are even here on a Tory-filled trading floor).

Re all the crap afterwards...

I'm not Lord Cashcroft as Tim I'm sure is fully aware, as he is able to track ip addresses.

I was 'Sarahty' and 'Definitely not Chad so don't delete this comment' though!

Anyway back to the thread, otherwise I'll get 'banned' again. ;-)

Back to the thread perhaps chaps?

It is pretty much as you noted

You mean it's exactly as I noted ;-)

I think we can understand why Gordon, master of making small things look big, didn't announce "15,000 extra homes a year (matching what the Conservatives were doing between '91 and '96)".

Yes, I guess you are pretty much right Mark. ;-)

The topic presumably being Chad that the polls showing the squeeze is on, that British politics is again a two-horse race, and that you and other (former?) ukippers are "better off out" of minor parties if you want your vote to count?

Oh no you don't, Chad. That was your favourite troll trick "back to the thread" when you would post something on-topic attacking DC and the party.

It's highly disruptive to have nothing but anti-Conservative, anti-Cameron posts all the time and you did not allow it on ukip home.

Even Labour posters like Comstock contribute other points to discussion.

If all you have to say is attacks on Cameron, like your latest blog, please have some manners and don't troll just as you didn't want it at your place.

Cheeky Alexander!

I think what you are not taking into account that no one party deserves our vote in all circumstances.

I am reassured that local govt is controlled by conservatives as they focus on good old fashioned value for money, lower taxes etc. It's good that ukip are standing oand offering a choice though as we know, the parties are traditionally similar (ignoring the current Tory incarnation).

For nationals, I would vote for the best-placed to win BOO whether they be Lab, Tory or ukippers, and for the euros, UKIP really are the only choice with their membership of the 9-country Ind Dem group.

So, no, there is not a single party answer, and I would like people to vote for the people most likely to deliver their aims not the party, as we know there are good people like Philip Davies fighting for eu withdrawal against the party line etc.

Chad with duplicitousness like

"'Definitely not Chad so don't delete this comment'"

I don't think you've got anything to say to anyone else.

If you're only here to attack David Cameron I hope you leave. Would you allow me to post nothing but anti-Farage rants on your latest blog, yes or no?

Look, all this talk of who is or isn't Chad is excruciatingly boring, comes up in every thread Chad comments on, and is utterly irrelevant. And yes I am only adding to it.

The only reason it explodes is that Chad responds to all the comments about him and attention seeks. Successfully.

Can we ban him again?

Back to the thread now please. Chad's knack for derailing threads is impressive, YHN is now banned.

Re: thread. Important that Labour's increase comes entirely from the LDs and the Tory vote is static even though we are starved for oxygen at the minute.

Brown vs Cameron clearly indicates a wide preference for Cameron. But if he is nowhere near a screen, just as in advertising, Labour's polling improves.

Therefore, as Tim says, expect a distortion in the polls until after Brown is PM. That will be all summer and will include the kissing of hands, the first Cabinet, etc.

The heartening thing is that I see our posters and members are completely unfazed. We knew this was coming and the "political market" has factored it in. Labour may even draw level before the autumn.

But right now, even at the worst possible stage for us in the media cycle we still lead by 4% with no reduction in our own vote share.

That's encouraging.

I think that confirms whatb we saw from You Gov at the weekend a small increase in labour support at the expense of the lib dems whilst conservative support remains steady.

With apologies to the Deputy Editor:

(o o)
Wot, no Chad?

After watching Dispatches last night and reading this poll, 33 % want a psychotic in charge.

Hope it is not true.

Probably is true. After all, the British have voted three times in the last ten years for a delusional authoritarian narcissist....

Wot, no Chad?

Sigh. What have I been banned for this time?

Will somebody please explain to a 74 year old novice blogger exactly what a "Troll" is.
To avoid confusion I am a Labour supporter however that does not mean I think everything the Tory's do is either bad or wrong. Quite the contrary, what it means is I have an open mind and will listen to reason. I detest people being over bearing and know-it-all's as it usually means they know "B" all, an answer is all that is required at this time. Thank you.

Brown and his million homes is an example of the sort of "promises" by Brown as he apparantly seeks the leadership of the Labour party. In fact he is running a sort of general election campaign with the Tories in mind probably as dishonest as most of his budgets. There are more weeks of this and I would suggest Cameron and Co. had better start treating Browns leadership campaign as an election campaign.

Will somebody please explain to a 74 year old novice blogger exactly what a "Troll" is.

Basically someone who says something they don't really believe purely to get a reaction.

Sometimes a troll can be quite blatent, sometimes the line between trolling and simply raising a contraversial point can be quite a fine one, with people wrongly accused of trolling.

Welcome aboard, btw, I vote Labour too, although I'm not a party member.

Davis Sergeant,

we should already be treating this as blatant electioneering. For example one milion new homes over 5 years is a minimum of £100 billion in spending - either from central or local authorities or borrowing. Add to that his promises on Education spending (to bring spending up to private education spending per pupil) and we are talking about a humungous amount of cash to be found. The man is very free with our cash isn't he.

Ted, surely the one million new homes will be paid for by the people who buy them, not the treasury?

Many Thanks Comstock I do appreciate your help.

I am not a Labour Party paid up member either but neither will I be a troll. If I state something it is because I honestly believe it, not to produce a reaction.
Having said that I believe it is only fools that never change their mind and if someone can convince me with a good debate that he/she is right then after due consideration I have been known to alter opinion. That is why I think it is healthy to read and observe opinions from all quarters.
Those that are dogmatic or insulting have never been able to alter my opinion one Iota and I have never had any patience either with fools or smart Alec's.
I think unless people keep a civilised open mind whilst debating, they not only do themselves a great dis-service but the Party they support and achieve nothing into the bargain.
I look forward to some fruitful and interesting debates.

I am not a Labour Party paid up member either but neither will I be a troll. If I state something it is because I honestly believe it, not to produce a reaction......
I look forward to some fruitful and interesting debates.

Something tells me you will be an asset to these boards. Why not go to the community page

and tell us a bit about yourself.

Ok that link doesn't work, but it's on the left of the page towards the top, 2nd block down.

We haven't had a new profile in there for a while.....

Comstock, Thank you for info, will do that at another time.
What a coincidence your profile is not unlike mine.
I will read them all more thoroughly then fill in my details.

Joseph, some fine sentiments you've expressed today. I'm not quite sure how they fit in with your troll-like opening salvo:

"...we will see how Cameron and his pathetic lead stacks up then."

Still, I'm happy to give you the benefit of the doubt and hope that next time you'll come up with a better counter-argument than "...juvenille pranks, I suggest you try another Tac never-the-less 6/10 for your effort".

After Willets' comments on grammar schools I think we can forget the Conservatives as a future government.

In the South there are public schools and the bulk of remaining grammar schools, but in the North very few options where the grammar schools were destroyed largely under the Heath Government.

If there is no room for grammar schools it is uncertain that public schools have a future and maybe should be subject to VAT on fees. To say that selection is only possible in fee paying schools is to make a mockery of selection-by-ability.

Labour it seems has set the political agenda of this country for the future, and it seems hard to believe the Conservatives will ever form a government on their own as a Southern regional party.....how crass can Willets get ?

Looks like the "Cameron Effect" is going...going.

Come the election of Brown it should be - satisfyingly - gone.

After Willets' comments on grammar schools I think we can forget the Conservatives as a future government.

Looks like the Cameron mafia are running scared again Tom Tom. Very scared.

Back to the manic gimmicky Bluelabourism of Cameron's early days, but this time it won't wash.

Once again the reaction of angry genuine Conservatives is building up, ready to strike back when Cameron finally flounders in the polls - as he will.

Those ministerial limousines may be about to slip out of Bluelabour's grasp.

So sad.

Traditional Tory/"Tory Loyalist"/"Alex Forsyth" etc etc, I wondered when you'd resurface. I think you said you would evenually.

Got anything positive to say this time, or are you going to still rant and carry on?

Hi Alexander. Did you know that the delusion that your opponents are all the same person is the first sign of...well I'm no psychiatrist.

I understand you are an Australian who once worked at Smith Square (or was it Starbucks?) while backpacking your way round Pomland. That means you will be well in touch with the way rank-and-file Conservatives are thinking - NOT!

Get used to this. Most Tories don't like Cameron's Bluelabour policies but are prepared to tolerate them while he rides well in the polls.

A powerfully-motivated minority have always detested Cameron, his clique, and his policies and won't support him at any price. Many of us are veterans of the successful war against Major.

We bide our time.

...presumably because you haven't got anything better to do with your time than stew in a corner?

Get a grip, sport.

Excuse me Alex, dear, but I have just given this forum 5 minutes of my time while eating my breakfast.

Considerably less time than you've spent here this week.

There was a time, many years ago, when I was obsessed by politics (and you must be similarly obsessed to take such an anorak-ish interest in the politics of somebody else's country)

Nowadays I prefer to make money, but that doesn't mean that I am not prepared to take a patriotic interest in the future of my (note emphasis) country.

And for me that future excludes "Dave".

I applaud anyone that has an interest in their country's affairs, TT/TL/AF - it's just a shame that in your case your severehangups and chippiness clouds your view.

Looking forward to you posting something positive some time.

Just a shame you're not capable of doing it any time soon.

I'm not quite sure how they fit in with your troll-like opening salvo:

"...we will see how Cameron and his pathetic lead stacks up then."

Mark, please see my definition of a troll posted at 19.50 yesterday. I fail to see how that remark (which I can't find BTW, unless it is on another entry?) constitutes a 'troll'.

A 4% could hardly be described as 'overwhelming', it might not even be a lead at all, given the margin of error of polls and the fact this is a mid-term.

Mark I do not retract my opening Salvo one Iota, I meant exactly what I said. This Labour Government has been in trouble now for almost a year and Cameron's lead SB in double figures, it is not.
As for "...juvenille pranks, I suggest you try another Tac never-the-less 6/10 for your effort".

Behave like a child and I will treat you like one.
When you and I have a difference of opinion, that does not make you right and me wrong it means exactly that "A difference of opinion"
What it does not mean is that people should be subjected to "Smart Alec" replies to try and insult a persons intelligence, I seen this aas a masked form of intimidation and I was not well pleased with it.
Now we both know where we stand and I am prepared now to give you the benefit of the doubt.

Comstock re:
"I'm not quite sure how they fit in with your troll-like opening salvo:

It was on a thread on the 14th May Tory members think Brown will be a less effective leader than Blair"

My argument is this, the British people do not like personal attacks on anybody especially when one has no right of reply.
For weeks now Cameron has attacked Brown's pesonality relentlessly and unfortunately it is rubbing off on people from this blog-site. I can see this backfiring badly on the Tories.
Now as I fervently believe that big government = bad government I want to see a strong opposition, so far I cannot see this under Cameron. This does not mean to say that I do not think there is a not a lot of damn good Tories out there I emphatically do believe there is. Unfortunately I do not think the right one was elected and I think the Country is going to rue the day.
In the meantime for those who dimiss Brown you do this at your peril and unfortunately so does your leader.

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