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Let me set the bench mark:

Anything below 38% for the Conservatives is a bitter disappointment;

Above 38% but below 40% is a disappointment but not a disaster.

40-41% would be a good but not spectacular night.

Above 41% would be a resounding victory for Project Cameron.

And let me venture to predict Conservatives will not clear the 40% hurdle.

Do we get exit polls for the English locals?

Its just like waking up christmas morning and wondering which present to open first, just making the outline of whats under the wrapping.

I just hope they was fair elections.

Goldie, are you really saying that 3% is the difference between "bitter disappointment" and "resounding victory"?! That's a rather narrow range. I'd widen it somewhat:

* 45% plus would be akin to Labour's convincing victories during the 1990s that set them on course for general election victory

* 40-43% would be convincing and produce a substantial number of gains

* either side of 39% would be a good win but not enough for the general election

* below 37% would be disappointing; 35% or less would be catastrophic

Pickles shouldn't have told the Evening Standard that he was expecting upwards of 39%. Best to play down expectations and make the outcome look better.

If the Tories get 40% what's the minimum number of gains we can expect assuming the Libs and Lab are in mid twenties?

Peter Coe: margins are narrow at the moment.

35% or less would be catastrophic
If it was less than 35% of the vote then I would expect Edward Leigh to be gearing up to challenge David Cameron for the leadership in the Autumn.

Here in Wear Valley (Co. Durham, North East England) the Tories had 2 candidates for the whole district in 2003, against 18 for District, Town and Parish this time.

The district has been mentioned of late in the Daily Telegraph regarding the lack of Conservative representation...leading to a more determined effort locally to at least increase our vote share, if not pinch a single seat.

One candidate, aged 19 (female) has put out 6 leaflets, two of which have been delivered today, by the young lady and her friends. Never for decades has the Labour Party even had to knock on doors, they merely turned up for the count and subsequently won! Today, the Labour candidate in this ward has been spotted ferrying folk back and forth by car to vote - they are desperate to hang on.

In Bishop Auckland (the largest town in the district) the Tories have a record number of candidates in the town (one 18yr old lady and other new young candidates!) have put out three election leaflets and have worked the area with previous local issue leaflets for well over a year.

We are acutely aware that all of this effort will most likely be for very little reward, if any at all, but democracy of some sort has returned - what a joy it has been to see the Lib Dems running from door to door at 8pm last night realising a small band of Tories have out Lib-Demmed them, and the Labour Party going round and round today with a loudhailer.

Whatever the result, and we don't expect to win any seats whatsoever, there has been no lack of effort by the Tories in these parts - some in territory that is as hard as you can find anywhere.

thats the most positive post i think i've ever read on this site

I'm wondering to what extent the bin collection issue will harm incumbant Tory councils.

Whatever the result in Scotland, the Tories ran a damn good campaign there....and our opposition had to admit it.

Loved the Lib Dem yellow poster too!

Thanks Jim. Great to read of your efforts. I'm sure you're sowing seeds for the future.

Come on. Lets be positive.

By the way, there doesn't seem to be a link to here from the front page.

Richard, Conservatives have been doing well in councils for a few years, including last time these seats were fought, making gains harder. Most of tonight's seats were last contested in 2003 or 2004, when the Tories polled 35% and 37% with the Lib Dems on 27% both times, Labour on 30% and 26%. I guess about 500 seats to be gained?

Cheers for the estimate David. My original prediction was 601 but I'm thinking maybe I was a tad too optimistic. Good weather tends to bring out Labour voters too!

I don't see the Tories making that high threshold. I do not see them blowing the doors off everyone else. I think certain less parties are going to do well.

I'm glad you picked up on the BBC leading on the priest story. Ridiculous.

Charles Kennedy is doing well on Question Time. Why did the LibDems dump him?

I've found that Australia's Sky News goes to the UK Sky news coverage if you 'press the red button'. Tim, I think Iain is very good on the election panel and that Ed Davey is a bit oily and slippery. Estelle Morris looks like Dame Edna's sidekick Madge.

Great to have you as our DownUnder correspondent Alexander!

Canvassing in Dorset today produced a mixed response. Typically, we have always been a tory area, and we still maintain a core vote here.

However, there is now a new breed of people voting conservative, and also a new set defecting, mostly to UKIP. In addition, Labour are no longer any threat here to the Conservatives, that honour belongs to the Dim Libs.

I predict a tory vote of 38-39%. But I think that would be enough to win in a general election, too.

18DS - someone on a blog claims turnout in Scotland is in the 60s!

Winning with 38-39% would require a very low Labour vote William W.

"18DS - someone on a blog claims turnout in Scotland is in the 60s!"

Something to do with today's Daily Record's headline perhaps?

Ah... Yet Another Anon,
Re Predictions.
I'm a Simple Tory NOT a clever one!!
Lack of joined up thinking but good fun on Election night.
Got a response from you!!

Anyone care to predict how well or badly the BNP are going to do? Again we have the paranoia in the press...is this the year their wolf crying ends up being correct?

Also in Dorset -the options for me were 5 -
ie 3 Tories
1 FibDem.

Needless to say I voted for that nice Mr Blair .

The BNP vote depends on the proportion of English councils going to vote. As this is quite a few, I think they will make gains similar to those of last year.

Keep a look out for Bury and Bolton Councils in Greater Manchester. Only 5 or so seats in each needed to take control after years in the doldrums. If we do, then we're on a roll!

Net Lib Dem gains - any predictions?

The results in Birmingham will be especially interesting to watch, from a Tory viewpoint.

(Did anyone hear on Sky News the female presenter saying that if the Tories become the largest party it will be the first time since the First World War? Actually, they were in control until 1984, so just a slight error there.)

im i imagining things or is it scots/welsh and english elections. so why is the bbc running a long article about northern ireland politics

Lid Dem gains will be Conservative losses, this is because we actually have the capability of pretty much stealing any seat which Labour lose.

Will we be able to watch bbc election coverage online? I notice sky are doing that...

Well I can't because the BBC don't allow people outside the UK to see their election coverage. I happen to be in Maine in the US right now oweing to an upcoming marriage (mine).

I empathise, Andrew. I recommend streaming Five Live on the website. Not ideal but it will be better than nothing.

Go Iain. Estelle Morris is a joke.


For Sky's coverage. It seems quite a broad coverage they have.

Apparently Labour have held overall control of Sunderland council - not a great surprise really.

Yes, it isn't bad although the video isn't smooth.

No one know anything about the BBC? They have programmes for Scotland and Wales on already so hopefully they'll have the main one on. If not thats really poor for a normally well run website.

reports of a BNP win in sedgefield.

Ah hah...the link has just appeared on the BBC news website. I have a good feeling about tonight (England anyway!) Although I don't hold out much hope for cities like Liverpool, where I am right now- walked down a street yesterday with sickening amounts of Labour posters in all the windows.

On 18DS they claimed the BNP have won 6 seats in Epping.

Where the heck is Peter Snow?!

Oh he left a while ago. Shame really, although Jeremy Vine is lively enough!

the epping result would be amazing considering only 5 are standing.

Conservatives take a council

Richard. Not watching 18DS but are they declared results, and if so are they gains from whom? BNP already have six seats in epping district council apparently.

Not good.

Well, since many thousands, even millions, of those who voted Tory at the last local elections will have DIED since then, and not been replaced by anyone (except for a few disaffected LibDems), I'm going to guess at 35-7% at most. If they stay where they were, they'll deserve huge applause.

Never forget that the Tories have the oldest voters in the country, and the lowest support amongst the young; the passing of the years is enough to deplete support.

Add in Cameron's gratuitous insults and lack of substance, and I expect little or no change.

3 gains in Tamworth

Interesting that the blog has the BNP set to make gains - Dimbleby reckons their vote is slipping cf last year

"Well, since many thousands, even millions, of those who voted Tory at the last local elections will have DIED since then"

I have always wondered to what extent emmigration has harmed them too.

I have no confirmation of BNP gains Paul D - only rumours.

Ironically I am in Maine in New England and 18DS is running rather well. In Enfield in Middlesex is runs like shite. Donal is on storming form as per normal tonight...he is itching for a spot on Fox.

Adam Boulton reporting Con lose Hastings to NOC (I think)

Re: Epping/BNP

The Epping Forest Council website says that counting will take place tomorrow morning, so no results are in yet.

the vote slip was in sunderland, but still to see the full vote result.

It is disappointing not to gain a seat there but have heard good news from else where.

Amazingly, the Liberal Democrats now have a 1 seat majority on Kingston-upon-Hull Council!

"The Epping Forest Council website says that counting will take place tomorrow morning, so no results are in yet."

Maybe I misheard then. Or the person on 18DS was wrong.

"Amazingly, the Liberal Democrats now have a 1 seat majority on Kingston-upon-Hull Council!"

Aupposedly the Labour council was rather lame. No gains or losses for the Tories there, would be have been expected to gain?

Another triumph of John Prescott, YAA.

2 gains from the LibDems (net) in holding Brentwood

2 Tory gains in Brentwood from LD
3 Tory gains in Tamworth from Lab

Con Hold in Peterborough

Editor, that correspondent on the BBC just called you [the bloggers] geeks didn't she?

Con gain one from BNP in Broxbourne but lose one to LD in W Lyndsey.

According to BBC website, checking the latest results, BNP lost their one seat on Broxbourne to Conservative

BNP have lost one of their Councillors in Broxbourne.

We've gained a seat from the loathesome BNP in Broxbourne

According to a PB.com post the BNP have lost a seat in Broxbourne. Maybe that line the Conservatives ran actually worked:


Worcester held - Lab gain 1 seat from Others but we retain our 1 seat majority

You'll all be pleased to know that I have once again been re-elected by a landslide on Spoofington Magna District Council.

I attribute this to a hard-hitting last minute leaflet to my tenants with a winning slogan: Do You Want To Be Evicted On Friday?

4 gains in Tunbridge Wells, Lab wiped out (-1), LDW -3

LOL! We're an amusing bunch.

Labour have held Manchester City Centre ward and the Lib Dems Manchester Brooklands - two wards we were hoping to gain.

Twice now, first in Scotland and just now by Guto Hari in Wales, the Beeb's interviewers have essentially asked the question "Labour have done so much for the people, and spent so much money, why are the voters being so ungrateful?"

Biased Beeb.

BBC are predicting so far that Tory vote is up 1%, Labour vote up 1%, Lib Dems down 2%.


Quite Nicko.

tories lose hastings

Gensing - Election Result

Borough Council Election, 3 May 2007

Turnout: 37.8%
Cartwright (Lab) 516 (34.2%)
Corello (Con) 475 (31.5%)
Kennelly (Lib Dem) 332 (22.0%)
Phillips (Green) 92 (6.1%)
Martin (BNP) 55 (3.6%)
Turner (UK Ind) 38 (2.5%)

Lab Gain

Swing (from 2006): 11.8% from Con to Lab

Silverhill - Election Result

Borough Council Election, 3 May 2007

Turnout: 41.9%
Dowling (Lab) 555 (39.2%)
Lock (Con) 482 (34.1%)
Howard (Lib Dem) 254 (18.0%)
Prince (BNP) 84 (5.9%)
Granger (UK Ind) 40 (2.8%)

Lab Gain

"tories lose hastings"

According to the BBC map there aren't any elections there!

Two byelections Richard.

VF, I thought you were a BNP supporter? Or am I to interpret your apparent pleasure at the Hastings results as meaning you're a Labour stooge?

BNP = Labour crankypants.

Guito Harris's comment was extraordinary. Lead contender for the Naughtie award of the night.

the Hastings results are bye elections

Labour and Tories gain 2 seats each in Southampton. LD lose 4. Haha.

With so many parties forming the "others" it would help if BBC and Sky would give a bit of analysis.

Thanks for the clarification Martin.

"Guito Harris's comment was extraordinary"

What did he say?

Some preliminary results are in, and there's enough of them to see a pattern developing - remember this is just a bit of fun....

Jeremy Vine: crap
Guto Hari: crap
That annoying woman in Scotland: crap
The annoying woman in the studio in London purporting to provide analysis of poll results: statistically crap
BBC: lost deposit

Brentwood 2 seats gained from Libdems

actually if the tories got a grip of things would gladly vote for them, i just thought whilst you was all gloating over broxbourne i would bring you back down to earth.

I do wonder what labour has to do, to stop people voting for them. I reckon they could have wife swap parties at number ten and still get 25% of the vote.

Why is the BBC so terrible William?

Lost a seat in Sefton but gained Chester council, wahey!

we lost 1 seat in Sefton to lab. Isn't that Bootle outside Liverpool?

Harris asked Glenys Kinnock something on the lines of:

"Don't you sometimes think you are like Monty Python and what have the Romans ever done for us. You have given them free bas passes....." and went on to give a long list of Labour spending and claimed achievements.

That wasn't any old soft question. It was a BBC soft question.

7 gains in Chester to take control for the first time in nearly 20 years.

Wallsall might be interesting Lab-3;Con+1;Others+2. But who are the others O BBC? Respect? BNP?Monster Raving Loonies?

Richard, Nicko (at 00:30) summed up his comment well, although he missed out the "free pensions" bit!. I think I saw a slightly shocked expression on Glenys's face as she was bowled this slow full toss.

Is it me or are the Lib Dems getting spanked? They just lost 2 seats to Labour in Bristol. No change for Tories.

Martin Wright:
Sefton is a strange mixture of Bootle (solid Labour, high rates of poverty), Southport (Con/Lib Dem, extreme affluence) and Crosby/Maghull/Aintree (Con/Lib Dem middle class suburbs) and yes, all of this sits right next to Liverpool.

The Con/Lab seat used to be Manor ward, which swings backwards and forwards quite frequently.

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