Elections night predictions (3)

We've already sought your predictions for The Other parties and for the percentages for the three main parties.  Your third and final chance to win a ConservativeHome mug comes with this invitation to predict the number of extra Tory councillors that will be elected tonight.  At 10pm we'll average out your guesses/ predictions/ considered thoughts and make a Wisdom of the Crowds estimate (as we did last year).

Comments

[Editor]

+392

[Paul D]

+627

[Bruce Mackie]

+229

[Chris]

+700

[Keir]

+324

[Yet Another Anon]

Con +200
Lab -200
LibDem -200
SNP +150
Green +27
UKIP +21
BNP +5

[Alastair Campbell]

+500 (Labour's spun prediction according to the London Evening Standard)

[Yet Another Anon]

Labour's spun prediction according to the London Evening Standard
That would be pretty poor spin as usually when parties expect losses they tend to exaggerate expected losses so they can say that things are better than expected later on.

[Orlando]

+515

[Yet Another Anon]

Ignore my previous comment, actually it would make sense - just obviously mixing up a couple of things in my mind and misreading things.

[Robert Simpson]

Con + 400

[Alan S]

+317

[eugene]

Possible:

Loss of 300

Why? Tories control most councils- we must have got it wrong somewhere- Medway for example- traffic flow ruined by Tory council.

Outside Tory areas- Scotland, North- there are other, better placed, contenders to get the anti-Labour vote.

Downscale your expectations people!

[Vote Freedom]

Tories + 150
Labour - 400
Lib dems + 100
BNP + 150

[Yet Another Anon]

Outside Tory areas- Scotland, North- there are other, better placed, contenders to get the anti-Labour vote.
The situation in Scotland in the Local Elections is complicated because for the first time each ward will use a preference system in which electors list candidates in order of preference - so an Anti-Labour, Anti-Conservative, Anti-SNP vote could be for more than one party and may make it more difficult for a generally unpopular party in a ward.

[Alan S]

Will you be discounting outlandish predictions Editor that could distort the overall average?

[Editor]

Yes, Alan.

[Vote Freedom]

Will you be eating humble pie Editor when the results come in and some of us are proven correct.

[Henry Cook]

Dear Editor,

I hate to drop this in here, but I'm afraid I didn't receive my mug as last year's competition winner, which is unfortunate as they look fantastic. Shall I email you my address? It just occurred to me when I saw this year's competition, and thought it would be a good time to ask you about it!

My prediction this year is + 673 Conservative seats, 'twill be a better night than expected.

[Adam]

+395

[Michael Hewlett]

Vote Freedom

You have been posting all day on the various threads. I'm surprised you weren't out canvassing for the BNP party and whipping up immigration discontent. I can quite confidently predict that the Editor will in fact be basking in the glory in yet another step towards a Conservative recovery rather than worrying about the BNP winning a few more seats in what will be yet another futile attempt to influence public policy. Nobody is fooled by your protestations to be a serious party and why you spend all day posting on a conservative blog is baffling.

[Chappers]

+633

[Geoffrey G Brooking]

Conservative +450

[Richard]

+601

[R Market]

+407

[Arthurian Legend]

+ 282

[Dave H]

+ 485

[James]

+407 (but hoping for more)

[Craig Morrison]

+625

[UK Daily Pundit]

666

[Martin Wright]

Con + 450

[noisy summer]

523

[Craig]

Wheres the best place to watch the results on tv? Sky or BBC?

[Jimbo]

591

[Paul Kennedy]

+ 453

and I hope that it might include a certain Paul Kennedy, Appleton Ward, Warrington .....bit of a mountain to climb though ;)

[Paul Kennedy]

PS also the other 11 Warrington South Ward candidates as well, good luck to them all, as the Deputy Chairman - Political of WSCA, I'm proud of, and grateful to each and everyone of them for standing.

[Anon Across the Pond]

+364

[Yet Another Anon]

Wheres the best place to watch the results on tv? Sky or BBC?
I'm going to listen on Radio 5 Live on cordless headphones, I can wander around drinking coffee then and also I can check online what the results are or lie down with my eyes closed and continue to listen.

[The real Anon, beware imposters]

+ 588

[SimpleTory]

Con +529

Lab -412
Lib -65
Oth -53

Daring or what!?

[kingbongo]

CON +630

[Goldie]

CON +190

[Editor]

Thanks everyone. Thread closed.