Elections night predictions (2)

10,500 council seats are being contested today. The share of the vote in 2006 was 40% (Con), 27% (LD), 26% (Lab). ConservativeHome's Poll of Polls currently puts the parties at 38.25% (Con), 30.75% (Lab) and 17.75% (LD).

Taking into account the others, what percentage of the vote will the main parties get?

• Con %
• Lab %
• LD %

A majestic ConservativeHome mug will go to anyone with the correct percentages.

Deputy Editor

Comments

[George Hinton]

35%
25%
25%

[Mark Fulford]

Con, 43%
Lab, 22%
LD, 27%

[CDM]

Con 41%
Lib Dem 26%
Lab 22%

[David Belchamber]

These elections are going to be interesting for all parties for a number of reasons but the results are likely to be grossly distorted by what, in my view, ought really to be quite irrelevant factors.

Labour is going to get a kicking (we tories all hope) but why?

These are local elections that should be about local issues, not the mess that the Blair/Brown duumvirate in central government has inflicted on the country.

It is totally impractical as a suggestion but I would completely do away with political councils and only elect independents, so that they could work in the best interests of their community and not of their political aprty.

[Cllr Nicholas Bennett]

Con: 41.1
LD: 27.0
Lab: 25

[Richard Baxter]

Con: 44%
LD : 29%
Lab: 18%

[Robson]

Con 38%
Lab 22%
LD 26%

I think 42+% Tory share quoted above may be a bit hopeful

[Nick]

Con 40.7%
Lab 27.3%
Lib 18.4

[Adam]

Conservative: 39%
Labour: 30%
Lib Dem: 22%

Does anyone know how the national equivalent vote is calculated?

[Chris Palmer]

41%
24%
27%

[Josh]

Horror! BBC1 Scotland has got its own coverage of the elections and is skipping over QT tonight. Goddamn insular Scots!

It looks like the National coverage is also being carried on BBC NEWS 24, so (hopefully) I'll still get to view it.

I don't want to miss Dimbleby. I will hear many things against the BBC, but they do an exceedingly good election night.

[Andy Stidwill]

C: 38%
LD: 30%
Lab: 25%

[Chappers]

Con 40.3%
LD 26%
Lab 25.6%

Please excuse the messy percentages! They hopefully reflect my thinking that the Tories will only just top 40% and that the LDs will only just tip Labour into third place.

[James]

37%
27%
26%

I'm slightly managing my own expectations with this prediction, but I really don't see us more than 10 points ahead of Labour without the Lib Dems being rampant.

[Edward]

C: 43
LD: 28
S: 23

[comstock]

I'll go for

Con: 38.5 Labour 27.2 Liberals 26.8

This won't be a good night for Labour, but hopefully not an unmitigated disaster either.

[Umbrella man]

Con 40.4
LibDem 26.7
Labour 24.0

[sarg71]

38.5%
24%
25.5%

[Martin Wright]

Con: 38%
Lab: 25%
LDs: 20%

I've been cautious on our vote (optimistically it ought ot be around 42%), because I'm concerned that Cameron's liberal/conservative message will not play well in the North

[William Norton]

Perhaps a competition to predict when the mug will be delivered?

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Tories 33%
Lib dems 25%
Others 22%
Labour 20%

[Orlando]

Con: 40.3
Lab: 25.5
LibDem: 24.6

[601]

Con:-41%

LibDem 27

Labour:- 24%

It's hard to separate ur emotions from realism. Know what I mean cos' i don't.

[Yet Another Anon]

Important to remember that in 2006 except for a few council by-elections that all the other seats up for election were in England

I would think
Con 37%
Labour 28%
LibDem 26%
SNP 2%
Other 7%

[Yet Another Anon]

It is totally impractical as a suggestion but I would completely do away with political councils and only elect independents, so that they could work in the best interests of their community and not of their political aprty.
How exactly, Independents stand but mostly it is people standing for a party that win? Less so at Local level, but even with the decline in the 3 party vote in recent years this is still the case.

[Yogi]

Con 40%
Lab 27%
LibDem 24%
Nationalists (including SNP, PC, UKIP and BNP)8%

[Peter Hatchet]

Anyone seen Iain Dales Diary?

Labour reckon they've won postal votes battle in Scotland & retained key marginals(god knows how)

[Al Gunn]

Con: 39
Lab: 19
Lib: 24

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Peter H

We all know how, just what we need to know is will the law investigate it.

[Richard]

Con: 41%
Lab: 25%
LD: 26%

[EML]

Con: 40.2%
LD: 25.4%
Lab: 24.8%
Oth: too much

[Lancs Tory]

Some Labour votes are seeping away up here to us and the Lib Dems but other Labour voters are simply staying at home. Labour are worried about many of their safer seats but don't have the manpower to do anything about it. They appear to have abandoned the safer Tory council seats and marginals!

Prediction:
Con: 39
Lab: 25
LD: 27

[Editor]

Peter/ Vote Freedom - please keep this thread for predictions and use the homepage for breaking news. Thanks!

[Robert Simpson]

Con : 40.5%
Labour : 26.5%
LD : 24.5%

[The real Anon, beware imposters]

Con 40.5%
Lab 23.8%
LD 26.9%

[NigelC]

Yet another Anon 16.07
Nationally I will vote Conservative. Locally I am standing as an Independent to represent a broad spectrum of people who are affected by a major local issue. Party politics are getting in the way of a sensible way forward. I have had to resign from the Party to do so.

Party politicians only get elected because there is a party organisation to help and people recognise the label.
Try leafleting 3,500 houses by yourself and navigating the complexities of election regulations......

My vote is

42% Con
22% Labour
24% Lib Dem

[kingbongo]

Con 41.5%
LD 27.5
LAB 24%
Others 7%

[Yet Another Anon]

Party politics are getting in the way of a sensible way forward. I have had to resign from the Party to do so.
I didn't say that party dominated councils were neccessarily good, I was just pointing out that if people voted for that that there seemed no way of stopping it. Ban party labels in Local Elections and parties would just put candidates up as independents with the party backing. Local, devolved and national levels need to be treated seperately and not as some kind of sequential springboard towards ministerial positions.

[Marky Bunny]

Con 41
Lab 27
Lib 23
Others 9

[Marky Bunny]

I am a party member, go to Conference, etc, but today I have voted Labour!!!!
The problem is my Council which is Lib Dem controlled. My ward is between Lib and Lab with us only getting around 100 votes.The others getting around the 900 mark each. The Labour candidate is a county councillor and is actually very good, like he knocks on peoples doors asking if can help etc during non-election time and did manage to get sort out a smashed bus shelter and some illegal parking that the Liberals didn't want to know about. The only time we see Liberals is during election time!!!. Whats the point of voting for a Lib who will only vote with her Council and Mayor what you want is a Candidate who will stand up for Local people and get things done which the Labour guy does. Last year he lost by 38 votes and I voted Tory. Thats the problem with local elections I have voted Labour, but have voted for the man not the Party, and where we cant hope to win.

[Paul D]

C 43
LDW 28
Lab 25

[Malcolm Brice]

Cons 44%
Lab 20%
LDs 26%

[Andrew James]

Con 41%
LD 29%
Lab 24%

[A Blair Esq]

Con: 2%
Libs: 1%
Thegloriouslabourpartyfarewelltotonypresent: 105%

[Robin Roberts]

Con 42%
LD 28%
Lab 26

[Craig Morrison]

Con 42%
LD 26%
Lab 24%

[Craig Morrison]

p.s. Am I wrong in thinking last year's figures are national equivalent vote shares? Doesn't that mean that the fact there are *actual* elections in Scotland shouldn't make much difference (unless we do even worse than last time), as the Tories' (notional) weakness in the North was factored in to last year's figures along with their (actual) success in England?

[steve e]

con 38
lib 24
lab 20

[Paul M]

C: 41
LD: 26
L: 24

[johnC]

Con 43%
Lib 22%
Lab 20%

[Paul Kennedy]

C 41
L 27
L/D 27

[David Q]

Con 41
Lib Dem 25
Lab 24

[Yet Another Anon]

Am I wrong in thinking last year's figures are national equivalent vote shares?
There weren't any Scottish, Welsh or Ulster votes really to base it on though - except for a few council by-elections all the other Elections in 2006 were in England.

[malcolm]

Con 37
Lib 26
Lab 25

[Kris F]

My guess is:
Con: 41%
LD: 26%
Lab: 25%
Other: 8%

[Jamie Martin]

Con 39.25
Lib Dem 27
Lab 24

[TomTom]

Con 35%
Lab 24%
LibDem 21%
Others 20%

[A Syed]

Con 44
Lab 19
Lib 24

[Henry Cook]

Con 41.5%
Lab 25%
LD 26%

[Dave H]

Con 41.5%
Lab 24%
LD 26%

[Jimbo]

Con 39
Lib and Lab 25 each

[Ben]

Con - 39.5
Lib Dem - 27
Lab - 21

[michael]

con 42
lab 23
lib dem 28

i hope this is unique, if not apols

[Yet Another Anon]

i hope this is unique, if not apols
If it wasn't then presumably the first person to have posted that set of figures would be declared winner if they turned out to be most accurate.

[SimpleTory]

Con 43
Lab 28
Lib 16
Oth 13

Remember the polling adjustment immediately after last years elections!?

[William [Bill] Pipe]

CON:41%
DIM LIBS:26%
LAB: 24%

[Yet Another Anon]

Con 43
Lab 28
Lib 16
Oth 13
I don't quite follow how your post on Elections night predictions (3) follow from this - how could the Lib (I assume you mean LibDem) vote nearly halving in comparison to 2003 result in them only losing 63 seats and how could Labour's vote being only being down by about 2% on 2003 result in them losing 412 seats in comparison?

[Yet Another Anon]

nearly halving in comparison to 2003 result in them only losing 63 seats
65 in fact you put on that other thread.

[Sean Fear]

Conservative 40%, Lib Dem 27%, Labour 24%.

This is not *actual* vote share, but rather Rallings and Thrashers' projection (*not* the BBC's projection).

[Editor]

Closing this thread now. Thanks everyone!