Will Blair resign before Thursday's elections?

Is Tony Blair planning a final gift to the Labour Party by resigning before next Thursday's local elections?  The Express and Telegraph speculate that he might be planning to take advantage of the saturation coverage that would greet such an announcement.  Although there would be a reminder of Labour's failures - including of the handling of the Iraq war - there would also be focus on his achievements, including the Northern Ireland peace process.

Margaret Thatcher was deeply unpopular in 1990 but her resignation and the associated coverage of her premiership produced a bounce in her standing.  Labour may be hoping a resignation next Tuesday - the tenth anniversary of Blair's election - might do the same for their party's candidates for Thursday's elections.  Mr Blair might even announce that he'll be supporting Gordon Brown and give Labour a much needed boost in its ratings for unity.

Republicans in Washington regret that George Bush only sacked Donald Rumsfeld after last November's Congressional elections.  Many believe that the Senate might still be in GOP hands today if Bush had forced Rumself out a few weeks before polling and had demonstrated a willingness to listen to American voters' concerns.

Iain Dale speculated about this happening last week and even drafted a resignation speech for Blair.

Comments

[chrisblore]

I can't see this happening. Blair has been desperate to cling onto power as long as possible, even though he knows that it is seriously damaging his party and playing into the hands of his political opposition. The man is delusional and will not jump until he is pushed in my opinion.

[William Norton]

I wouldn't rule it out, the old poodle-faker might just do it to gain headlines about his selfless sacrifice etc etc. Can't help thinking, though, that if he really wanted to have helped out his party he would have gone last September rather than let it bleed to death for six months as it has been.

[TomTom]

Blair is a sociopath. He feels no responsibility or remorse but will feign it if required

[Peter Hatchet]

No, he won't.

I can't see any reason why Blair would want to give a gift to the Labour party.

He was clearly reluctant to announce his 3rd term would be his last in 2005, he was even more reluctant to announce he would stand down in 2007 when he was pushed in Sept last year and he will be reluctant now to leave any sooner than he has to.

The psychology just doesn't compute.

[dhanraj]

In your dreams. Blair has a Euro Summit to attend to and see the NI Assembly back in business, as one of his achievements, before he steps down.

[Jennifer Wells]

I think Blair will do this. Labour have got nothing to lose.

[William Norton]

Jennifer: it isn't about Labour any more; it's always been about Blair.

[Sally Roberts]

I think this is a distinct possibility -he's obsessed with his "legacy", isn't he?!!

[malcolm]

It does sounds plausible to me after all he is into 'grand gestures'. Anyone know if Blair has any cast iron diary commitments in the next couple of months.

[Yet Another Anon]

Is Tony Blair planning a final gift to the Labour Party by resigning before next Thursday's local elections?
I think he would see it as potentially disruptive for Labour in the elections on 3 May for the mechanisms of the Labour Party focusing on gearing up for the leadership campaigns rather than the elections themselves.

Tony Blair has a messiah complex and is eager to take on responsibility for any form of failure in the Local Election campaign, he wants for the new leader to takeover with a clean sheet without blame for the Local Elections and he wants to be remembered as someone who was prepared to face unpopularity in the interests of New Labour which he sees as being the national interest.

I have to say that so far I have seen very little in the way of local election posters, all of them Liberal Democrat.

[Londoner]

Might be do it the moment the polls close or on Friday morning? Overshadowing the results rather than polling day.

[Yet Another Anon]

Of course regardless of when the new leader was in place Tony Blair could attend the Euro Summit & meeting of the G8, the only problem would be if the parliamentary Labour Party and/or the new leader decided that Tony Blair should not then be PM, it will take about 2 months for a leadership campaign so if there is more than one candidate on the ballot paper then the new leader wouldn't be elected until either about or shortly after the time of the meeting of the G8 he is to chair. Don't forget that even if there is only one candidate who is therefore the new leader - the new leader then will be attending hustings and so won't have much time initially for attending summits. It is always possible that if Gordon Brown becomes leader before the G8 that both will go with Tony Blair going as PM and Gordon Brown going as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Labour leader and probably at that point Deputy Prime Minister (effectively Prime Minister Elect).

[Yet Another Anon]

the only problem would be if the parliamentary Labour Party and/or the new leader decided that Tony Blair should not then be PM
I should have added that I doubt they would be likely to force the issue though, for the sake of a matter of a matter of weeks difference.

In the ludicrously improbable event of Michael Meacher or John McDonnell becoming leader then there would probably be conflict with Tony Blair feeling rightly that they would be about to destroy everything he had done and lose the General Election; but with it being Gordon Brown it would be a continuing transition.

[Stephen B]

In regards to Scotland, I think a resignation before the Holyrood elections will be too little, too late. I sense the mood of the voters is quite settled and even Gordon Brown is treated with scepticism (to put it mildly) among voters.

The only advantage a resignation might have is that is moves the news cycle off from whatever the SNP have planned (I assume they will have high profile endorsements or defections to keep the momentum going up until Thursday) but, as the SNP are the official opposition, they would also be given an increased amount of airtime to respond to a resignation, thus neutering any effect.

[George Hinton]

St Toni of B-Liar needs to get his 10 in so that he can have an inproved pension deal from the state. After-all he's got a mega-mortgage to support on Connaught Square, an area just above a Prescott clearance zone.
Surely the media wouldn't allow itself to be manipulated in such a blatant fashion? well not all of it, surely.
Anyway, who cares when he goes, he has achieved his socialist aim, the country's totally buggered, and Gordo will have the task of burying it.

[ToMTom]

e can have an inproved pension deal from the state.

Peanuts. The BBC Chat-Show series with a £5 million contract; the Harper Collins Murdocj book deal for £7 million; the Bill & Melissa Gates Travelling Fellowship; the "gold watches" from Berezhovsky, Abramovitch, Mittal, Ecclestone et al.

[ToMTom]

e can have an inproved pension deal from the state.

Peanuts. The BBC Chat-Show series with a £5 million contract; the Harper Collins Murdoch book deal for £7 million; the Bill & Melissa Gates Travelling Fellowship; the "gold watches" from Berezhovsky, Abramovitch, Mittal, Ecclestone et al.

[Richard]

"I have to say that so far I have seen very little in the way of local election posters, all of them Liberal Democrat."

I have also noticed there don't seem to be as many as usual. So far I've only spotted a couple for the Tories and a couple for the Lib Dems.

[Mark Wadsworth]

He might also do a John Major - resign as leader of Labour (without resigning as PM) and put himself up against the Goblin King for re-election.

[James Burdett]

I would lay money on it not happening personlly. If he did it most people would see it for what it was; a cynical ploy. Once the elections were over he would have hell to pay. Nobody on any side would allow him to get away with it and he's not the politician we know he is to think he would ever get away with it!

[malcolm]

Cynical ploy? Blair? With his reputation? I'll put a fiver on it with you James. Whatever the outcome I'll be happy when he stops polluting British politics.

[James Burdett]

Malcolm, I'll only be truly happy when there is a Conservative majority after the next election. Until then, whilst the departure of Tony Blair will be significant in a historical context, it is nothing to crow over and certainly shouldn't distract all of us from the main aim which I mentioned at the outset.

[malcolm]

James,do you want a bet on it or not? Email me if you do

[Editor]

It has now been formally denied.

BBC: "Downing Street has firmly denied press claims Tony Blair will announce his resignation before Scottish, Welsh and English local elections on 3 May. The prime minister has been expected to quit as Labour leader after the poll - but some press reports suggested he would go earlier. In a rare comment on his plans, Downing Street said speculation Mr Blair would quit on Tuesday, 1 May, was "wrong"."

[comstock]

Spoilsport, Tim. I didn't think Malcolm had read that. I just emailed James telling him to relieve him of five pounds.

Malcolm, you are a very lucky man.

[malcolm]

Doesn't stop him resigning on the 2nd May does it.
Comstock my loss of £5 if I lose will be as nothing compared to my jubilation at the demise of Blair. If he doesn't go and Labour get stuffed at the elections next week that's fine too.

[comstock]

Doesn't stop him resigning on the 2nd May does it

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6599619.stm

Pretty clear to me what it means- he ain't going until after the local elections.

Comstock my loss of £5 if I lose will be as nothing compared to my jubilation at the demise of Blair.

Rememeber 1990, Malcolm? Labour supporters jublient at Maggies demise? I do,I remember what happened next and I look forward to a mirror image in 2009. And in collecting my winnings on behalf of Oxfam.

So, did you actually have the bet with James or not- don't leave us in suspense.....

[Scotty]

I thought a Blair resignation was the headlining grabbing option next Friday if the results are a complete disaster for Labour? Remember he does not have the option of a reshuffle like last time, it certainly did the trick and stopped the media dwelling on their drubbing at the polls.

[Jake]

If Blair were to resign it would be typical of the man -a deceitful , short term , gimmicky , news manipulating , little trick for some abstruse cynical political game in which the entire population are left to guess what he meant by that .

Actually , I bet he won't . He's scared of the future and not being PM and not being in a postion to supress and head off atttacks on him . Apart from Iraq , he must have any number of skeletons in cupboads we don't even know about let alone the one's we know bits of .
Unlike with previous goverments , there is going to be a vast and ongoing search for muck on this man and his government -
the population demand it .

When Blair finally is pushed out it will be with him still clinging to No 10's doorway .

[Yet Another Anon]

Mr Blair might even announce that he'll be supporting Gordon Brown and give Labour a much needed boost in its ratings for unity.
Not sure it makes much difference now whether he comes out and supports anyone or not, people including those who have supported him are probably going to back whoever they were going to back anyway.

Rememeber 1990, Malcolm? Labour supporters jublient at Maggies demise? I do,I remember what happened next and I look forward to a mirror image in 2009.
It isn't like 1990, John Major only became an MP in the same General Election as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it was 8 years into the Conservative governent before he became a government minister - the demographics are different, the simple fact is that Labour are not going to get 14 million votes and are unlikely to get as much as 42% of the vote and in terms of percentage vote the Conservatives are likely to do around as well or slightly better than Labour did in 1992, however this may well result in an increased majority for Labour, not as many seats for the Conservative Party as Labour got in 1992, more seats for the Liberal Democrats than in 1992 although probably on a lower percentage vote than back then.

There isn't going to be a bounce, but rather a continuity because unlike John Major, Gordon Brown was behind government policy formulation from even before the government had come in, John Major on the other hand rose in influence but only had a significant effect on the Conservative government's policies when he reached the cabinet which wasn't long before he became Labour leader.

If it was a mirror image you wouldn't have much reason to be happy because in fact at the 1992 General Election policies were already in place boosting spending while lowering tax which along with the measures taken to desperately keep in the ERM would lead to the tax rises in the mid 1990's, and of course along with the issue of Maastricht mean't the government had stored up huge troubles for itself that ultimately lead to the 1997 landslide.

[Yet Another Anon]

There isn't going to be a bounce, but rather a continuity because unlike John Major
Not only that but the "bounce" in fact was quickly followed by a bounce back because the bounce then was based on short term fashion. It wasn't the electorate who got rid of Margaret Thatcher or IDS, it was the parliamentary Conservative Party both times around.

[dog biter]

e can have an inproved pension deal from the state.

I'm surprised that DC et al haven't made more political capital of this - or is the subject of Parliamentary pensions too "in" a subject and not something you would criticise a colleague about even if he was from an opposing party. It's seems quite obvious that Blair has stayed on so that he can make his 10 years and thus get a much bigger pension than if he did less. Can we hear a bit of noise about this subject this week?

[Yet Another Anon]

It's seems quite obvious that Blair has stayed on so that he can make his 10 years and thus get a much bigger pension than if he did less.
He'll probably make more money in monies from appearing on chatshows, lectures, consultancy work and autobiographies etc.... in a matter of months than he made in the past 10 years. He just saw 10 years as being an important milestone, in total Harold Wilson was PM for 8 years, just over 10 years distinguishes him from all previous Labour leaders and he can always say that he could have gone on longer if he chose to but that Margaret Thatcher made an error in judgement in doing that and he might say that he went when he decided to go not forced out as she was.