Tory lead trimmed as LibDems edge up

A YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph shows the Tory lead down from 8% to 5% (compared with the most recent YouGov poll - for The Sunday Times).  In line with other recent surveys the LibDems are up - a strengthening that probably reflects the energy of their council candidates rather than a new affection for Menzies Campbell.

Three of the four pollsters in ConservativeHome's poll of polls put the Tories on 37%.  CommunicateResearch puts the party on 36%.  The average Tory lead is 7.25%.  The Conservatives were, on average, just 1.2% ahead of last year's local elections.

An interesting graphic in The Telegraph shows how Gordon Brown's advantage over David Cameron has been transformed from +8% in November 2005 to -10% now.

At the last General Election Labour had a 49% to 27% advantage on economic competence.  That has been transformed into a 1% disadvantage today.  But that transformation in one of the three points of 'the iron triangle of electoral success' is almost wholly due to a drop in confidence in Labour (-20%) rather than increased confidence in the Tories (+3%).

Comments

[Tory T]

Bemusing poll. Not what I find on the doorsteps. I would caution the anti-modernising chorus to wait until Friday when the results are in.

[Andrew Woodman]

More to do with the local elections than anything else I would say. Next weeks actual poll, and the week after when it's back to national politics will be of more interest. Right, I'm off to do some doorknocking.

[Alan S]

Our own economic competence rating would be a lot higher if we didn't have such a boyish Shadow Chancellor.

[Don Hoyle]

We're counting on a Lib/Dem meltdown and further Labour slide, here (M/Keynes). Libs are definitely worried but I don't like the sound of the Lib/Dem strengthening. There smug faces will be unbearable on Friday!

[Don Hoyle]

Of course, I meant "Their". Sorry.

[HF]

The truth is that a combination of factors is suppressing our effectiveness of which the most important are:-

1. We still have the same lacklustre approach from the Regional and National organisation to campaigning.

2. The computer system being used is several generations behind the times and its replacement failed to be extensively deployed in time to be effectively utilised for this election.

Both of those factors ARE under the control of Francis (many jobs) Maude.

How can Constituency Associations be properly guided when the Regional and National functions prefer to dissipate their efforts on changes to MEP selection DURING AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN?

These are such gross errors that through this page I urge DC to appoint as the Party Chairman (or CEO) a full time non MP to sort out the Party's organisation. Shuffling in another part timer just will not compete with Lord Rennard the CE of the Lib Dems.

The Labour party also employ a part timer in Hazel Blears and we can see what a mess their organisation is in.

[malcolm]

It's difficult for me to tell what's happening with the LibDems on the ground here (Braintree) as they are not fielding a candidate against me and do not appear to be making much effort across many of this councils wards.
Nationally it seems that the local elections have not set the country alight and events are being overshadowed by what is happening in Scotland and Wales.
I suspect that our success or otherwise will be determined by our ability to GOTV and we may win in some places we do not expect and if we are complacent lose in areas that should be Conservative.
Good luck to all Conservative candidates and keep working until the end.

[Effie Notts]

I think you are getting a bit too excited, what the polls are reflecting at the moment it is more anti-Blair than Pro-Cameron. The Iraq factor is still playing a part in these polls. In other words this is the last chance people will get to give TB a good kicking.
This will change quickly if and when Brown takes over.
One had only got to look at how nervous Cameron looked as he knew he was well out of his depth during the recent Pension's Debates when Brown took (gnat-bite) Gideon Osborne on along with Clarke, Redwood and a good many others. He wiped the floor with them.
Can I also remind the more excitable of posters here that for a long time Labour was around about 20% ahead in the polls.
Hands up all of those who have heard of PM. Kinnock and where his place in the history books is.
Cameron should be a mile ahead at this time.
Do not make the mistake of how people vote at the Local elections and try to equate them with a GE.
How Cameron does in the Polls at the Scottosh and Welsh elections are a better indicator.
Do not hold your breath. What people tell canvassers on the Doorstep is one thing how they actually vote is quite another.
Some people have been known to fill canvassers with all sorts of hab-dab to get them off the doorstep, the same applies to pollsters.

[Effie]

So sorry, I meant to type Scottish, hope I have not offended our Scottish friends with my clumsy fingers.

[HF]

Re: Effie Nott

I disagree that we should be a miles ahead. The Labour 20% leads were in the days of inaccurate polling that over stated the Labour vote and understated ours.

That said I reiterate my view that if we were looked at as an investment would anyone invest in a company with a part time Chairman no CEO and a good product (DC)?

[Chris]

HF,
I fully agree with you regarding the "mid term" poll argument. We have yet to have an election where we stood a chance, so the mid term polling argument hasn't had a chance to be tested fairly yet.

The majority of pollsters who were functioning in the mid 90s are eiether no longer doing UK work, or have ceased to exist. I'm sure if their results were worth the paper they were printed on, then this would not be the case!

[michael mcgough]

Last night's by-election in Chingford Green ,Waltham Forest a staunch Tory (IDS)heartland would appear ,on a reduced turnout ,to show the LibDems gaining significantly from the Conservatives, with Labour losses attributable to a first time presence of UKIP.Cameron appears correct in his assumption that more people support the wishy washy politics of the centre-----but they'll plump for the established orange brand not the blue flop that has flipped to green.

[Effie]

Hf:
I think you are in great danger of being so pro-Cameron that it is clouding your vision of what is really happening on the ground.
DC is driving a lot of lifelong Conservatives to other party's such as UKIP, he is also seen by the floating voter as Blair mark 2.
I can forsee some big problems due to the fact that those wishing to see an end to Blair are certainly not going to vote for his clone.
Another thing is he is seen by a lot of floating voters as a flip-flopper and Brown will make hay with that as there is enough evidence to prove it. This caused the Democrats to loose last time in the USA against an unpopular Goverment.
You are a dyed in the wool Tory so it is not your vote he has to win it is those whom he has not managed to, or ever will convince.
Make no mistake about that, he has a huge mountain to climb and sound-bites and stage management are not going to do it alone. The electorate are much too sophisticated these days and when the elecotorate approach the GE their minds will be concentrated on things like stability, jobs and mortgages not sound bites or set peice speeches delivered by what is seen as a PR man at the moment and, his green credentials,(allow me to remind you of) the car-the chaffeur-the bike-the suit and the briefcase. Huskies, Windmills and Hug-a-Hoodie, they are all going to take a long time to live down.

[HF]

Re: Effie I am not dyed in the wool, I have stated on the April feedback thread that I have recorded dissatisfaction ratings with DC and Francis in that poll.

Having said that I do disagree with your accusations of spin with DC. My points are about the potentially disastrous managerial failures that the lack of a fulltime Chairman or CEO inevitably create.

Accusations of a lack of substance are what the newspapers who are led by anti-Tories are full of.

DC connects wonderfully well with Members when he meets them.

[HF]

Re: Michael Mcgough, I missed that by election result. I would attribute the retention of a seat on a reduced share (to LDs) as another example of a woeful by election machine. Francis please wake up!

[Effie]

You see HF, this is where you are completely missing my point.
I listened on the TV to a Scottish lady on ITV News during the Dunfermline By-election. She thought DC. was wonderful but when the reported asked would she be voting for him. I am sorry to disappoint you but her answer was an emphatic No!
When DC. came to Nottingham a few weeks ago, quite a lot of people thought he was nice but he just does not cut it in the East Midlands and the North and I doubt if he ever will, he has stiff opposition in the South from the Libs and so far he is showing no sign of a breakthrough in the whole of the Midlands and the North.
It would take nothing short of a miracle for him to gain much in either Wales or Scotland.
Sorry the more people get to know of him the more shallow they find him, even some of your own Conservative supporters.
I read this blog during the Greg Dyke incident and it was an eye opener.

[HF]

Effie are you male or female?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/04/27/do2706.xml

You also do need to review the research done by Ashcroft into why we lost the GE.

People liked our policies they just did not like our image. So the first challenge is to improve our image.

[Effie]

An elderly lady and one who will definately vote on polling day, and who has also seen a lot of general elections, been quite surprised at the results of a good many. I do not under-estimate the wisdom of the electorate and I take nothing for granted.
I am also very long in the tooth and with age comes some degree of wisdom, having been there done that and got the Tee shirt.
I never believe anything I read in polls, one only gets an answer to the questions posed at that particular time.
I do not know how honest those people are who are being asked the questions and neither does anybody else.
It has been a long time since I trusted people implicitly.
In fact it was back in my childhood sorry to say, not since.

[HF]

So effie if it was a choice between voting LD and conservative which would you choose?

[voreas06]

HF, effie appears to be a labour supporter she has all the language and the arguments used by Labour.

I believe the poor handling of Des Browne (sailor Stories), Gordon Brown (daft pensions no confidence vote), Osborne intimate metting with Bush (embarrasingly enough with another 150 people), Dyke and the Mayor fiasco and most importantly David Maclean's anti Freedom of information private members bill are the reasons support is dipping at the moment and indeed the defence of Freedom of information is one reason the Lib dems support is up.

[Josh]

I can believe that LibDem and minor party activism is the key to their rise in support or late. It seems that their activists live to put up banners and the like.

The problem is that this is the climate we'll be dealing with in the run up to a GE.

[Chris]

Josh, hopefully come a general election we'll be able to get more activists out. I've been out campaigning pretty much every weekend, but I'm struggling to get the rest of our CF branch interested in local issues.

[Effie]

voreas 06:
Does that automatically mean that my opinions are not worthy of being aired on a blog.
Are you telling all and sundry that unless they are a Tory supporter that their opinions do not matter?
Are you also suggesting that unless one votes Tory they are imbiciles?
Can you show me anywhere on this blog that states unless one votes Tory they are neither allowed an opinion or are welcomed on this blog?
You will not convince many people of your own convictions with an attitude like that.
This could be another of the reasons the Tories have lost 3 elections in a row. And the most probable one as they are still being seen as the "Nasty Party"
You are hardly very welcoming, I would suggest that is a much more valid reason why the support is dipping.
.................................

HF; If David Davis had have won the leadership election I could have found myself voting Tory. I could not vote for him now as I think he has lost all credibility since joining Team Cameron.
AS for the Lib-Dems they strike me as all things to all people. However I admire Nick Clegg and I think Campbell is grooming him as the next Liberal Leader. He will be a force to be reckoned with. David Law and Nick Clegg would make a dream ticket.
Thank you for your courtesy on this blog. I did enjoy it. You at least made me feel welcome and have shown good manners.
I will now bow out as I appear to be causing some offence which was not my intention.

[Rebecca]

Chingford Green Result

Con 1694 (55.2; -14.8)
Lib Dem 1022 (33.3; +14.3)
Lab 208 (6.8; -4.2)
UKIP 143 (4.7; +4.7)

A foretaste of May 3rd ?

[Rebecca]

Oh, and turnout 38.5%

[Yet Another Anon]

Do not make the mistake of how people vote at the Local elections and try to equate them with a GE.
In 1983 Labour got 35% of the vote in the Local Elections followed shortly after by 27.5% in the General Election. In 2004 Labour got only 22% in the European Elections and were getting down to 26% in Local Elections and yet got 35.2% in the Gemeral Election in 2005. William Hague got up to 36% in the EU elections and only got 31.7% in the General Election, the Local Election result in 2004 under Michael Howard was only fractionally lower than last years results under David Cameron - both were slightly under 40% of the vote and yet in 2005 the Conservative vote was at 32.3% of the vote. Just one month after the Local Elections in 2004 the Conservatives only got 28% in the EU Elections - there have been signs since 1997 that many people have been voting on a radically different basis in different elections and that many Labour voters have only been voting in General Elections.

[michael mcgough]

A foretaste of May 3rd ?
This was a poor result for the Tories in a very very safe seat and brings back memories of Bromley.

[Chris]

Chingford and Bromley were both safe seats, and I expect that a large number of Conservative voters didn't bother going out and voting, believing their seat won already. I personally didn't even follow the Bromley election, believing there was little point.

We also have the already mentioned Liberal Democrats are overwhelmingly good at fighting by-elections, due to their ability to pull in activists from all over the country to focus on a single constituency at a moments notice. This CANNOT happen during general or local election seasons, as every activist is busy fighting a campaign in their local area.

[Jonathan]

Another very poor result just before an election with Labour in disaray.
Just how bad does it have to get before CCHQ starts listening to an alternative view.

[voreas06]

Effie "voreas 06:
Does that automatically mean that my opinions are not worthy of being aired on a blog.
Are you telling all and sundry that unless they are a Tory supporter that their opinions do not matter?
Are you also suggesting that unless one votes Tory they are imbiciles?
Can you show me anywhere on this blog that states unless one votes Tory they are neither allowed an opinion or are welcomed on this blog?
You will not convince many people of your own convictions with an attitude like that.
This could be another of the reasons the Tories have lost 3 elections in a row. And the most probable one as they are still being seen as the "Nasty Party"
You are hardly very welcoming, I would suggest that is a much more valid reason why the support is dipping."

None of the above you are quite welcome as far as I am concerned although the above was a bit overly defensive. It is just that your arguments sound exactly like new labour spin which is basically vacuous half true rhetoric repeated over and over again, which neither adds to the debate nor implies you really want to debate.

[Scotty]

"Another very poor result just before an election with Labour in disaray.
Just how bad does it have to get before CCHQ starts listening to an alternative view."

Well I think that I would rather be a Conservative next week than either a candidate or member of the Labour or Libdem parties.
Good luck to all those standing in elections and well done to everyone out there campaigning.

[Hamish]

Does that mean you don't live in Scotland, Scotty ?

[Scotty]

Hamish, I live in Scotland and I will be voting Conservative. Going by some of the stories I have heard over recent weeks it really does not sound like it has been a bundle of laughs for many Labour activists trying to get the vote out, especially now they have discovered that their fair weather partners in the Holyrood administration seem to have found a new best friend.

[Matt Davis]

Michael McGough, as one who was out campaigning in Chingford Green almost every day for the last 5 weeks I need to correct at least one of your assertions about that by election. The collapse in the Labour vote had nothing to do with UKIP standing but was instead caused by a dodgy deal done between the two partners in the coalition that runs the Council, Labour & the LibDems. Although Labour did stand a candidate they did almost nothing by way of campaigning and allowed, possibly even encouraged, the LibDems to target their voters on a "we're the only ones who can beat the Tories" basis. The LibDems also threw everything they had at this election, bringing in the Leyton "A Team" to fight it rather than leaving it to their regular Chingford people, publishing Focus' containing outright lies, and flooding the ward with mutual aid on polling day. The result is in fact a triumph for us since, despite all of their efforts we saw the LibDems off with a still sizeable majority of 694, and an overall majority of 321, and sent them back to Leyton with their tails between their legs.

The main reasons for the drop in the Conservative vote were the usual by election apathy on the part of the electorate coupled to the fact that neither Cameron nor his approach and direction are particularly popular with long term Tory voters around here. On the doorstep I also heard a number of times variations on the "if we're going to vote for a LibDem type party we might as well vote for the real thing" theme.

This was not a poor result for the Conservatives at all, losing the seat most assuredly would have been, but we retained it and with a still sizeable majority. What it does however prove is that the LibDems will stoop to anything to try to take Tory seats and that there is no longer any such thing as a safe seat we must take care to defend and nurture them all and not just at election times either.

[michael mcgough]

Matt,
I'm glad you support my view that conservative voters aren't impressed with Cameron------why choose plastic if leather is on offer.Labour may not have campaigned wholeheartedly but they produced some decent(if partially untruthful) literature.The mass contingent of Labourites at the count did not indicate a 'giving way' to the Libdems.

[Matt Davis]

Michael,

Not quite sure where you got the mass contingent of Labourites at the count from, there were the same number of them as LibDems and one less than us. The Returning Officer was pretty strict about count passes and ended up only allowing 4 + candidate, candidate's spouse and agent.Also their happy demeanour at the count seemed rather peculiar for a party reduced to 208 votes. Were you actually present?