Tory lead steady at 8%

A Populus poll for The Times shows the Tories maintaining an 8% lead over Labour although both parties are down 1% on last month.

The Times also found that the Tory lead would widen to 11% if Gordon Brown was Labour leader (a fall from last month's 13% lead).

The Labour disadvantage would be 12% with David Miliband as Labour leader although Mr Miliband has today told the BBC's Nick Robinson that he will not be a candidate.

Comments

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Good to see that this report breaks down the vote for other parties, but like most polls it under estimates the parties, the SNP it shows as 3% nationally when it is 38% in scotland so you could easily raise the percentage share of other smaller parties to the real percentage share in areas which they are contesting. As for the UKIP being on 2% I would say this is totally false the most correct poll you can have is when the voters poll a vote, and the 8 votes not 8% but 8 votes collected in previous by elections this year shows they are on a terminal decline. Where as the BNP are the ones which look to make major gains which could lead it to being the fourth largest group in councillor numbers. Might explain the pathetic whine from DC when talking to white van man and asking him to vote labour or lib dem instead of BNP. How shameful that he didn't have enough faith in his own party. The people will see right through this and they the British public shall decide.

[Yet Another Anon]

but 8 votes collected in previous by elections this year shows they are on a terminal decline.
UKIP has always found Local Elections the most difficult, it is seen as being solely a party about withdrawing from the EU although in fact a long time ago it developed a very extensive manifesto which is far more comprehensive and thought out than the back of an envelope sort of things that Veritas and the BNP have.

The BNP on the other hand is failing to get anywhere in elections other than Local Elections and in fact is not having the massive successes claimed even in Local Elections, when elected their councillors fail to participate properly in debates, fail to understand what is going on and usually end up leaving the party before long - even if they took control of a Local Authority there is actually little they can do to further their own agenda - it's Tooting Popular Front style rubbish, signs are that their inroads into Labour's vote is running out of steam.

Obviously the Conservative Party are going to get around 40% in the Local Elections and Labour probably do no better in terms of votes than 2003, but probably no worse either and probably the Liberal Democrats will be the main losers this time around with Labour perhaps coming ahead slightly as they did last year.

As to whether UKIP can convince more people to vote for them in Local Elections that remains to be seen and whereas the BNP will have successes they can trumpet and might even control a council for the first time, in other areas they will slip back - I doubt they will end up with even 100 seats.

In Scotland probably many thinking of voting SNP as a sort of protest will give Labour the benefit of the doubt or not turn up and in the end it will probably be quite close as to which is the largest party.

In Wales it is clear that Labour is going to lose some seats but be in a coalition administration.

It's 2 years into a third term parliament and opinion polls at such a stage in a parliament have notoriously little in common with final General Election results, after all even ones on the day frequently are way off what the final result is - in 1981, 1985, 1989 and 2003 support of incumbent parties was somewhat shaky and yet they still won following elections, and in fact Conservative support has also been somewhat shaky and not much up on where it has been at it's previous peaks since 1997.

[Andrew]

"As for the UKIP being on 2% I would say this is totally false ......"

It's double what other pollsters are recording.

[Sean Fear]

Yougov give them 3-4% on average. They got 2.3% at the last general election.

[VOTE FREEDOM]

In response to the BNP only being a local election party, They look set to have their first Welsh assembly member elected and also in the 2005 they recieved 16% of the vote in Dagenham something which UKIP could only dream of. This is two years old figures and the BNP vote is increasing threefold which is why the likes of the Tory party are so scared and so redundent of ideas that all they can say is vote labour.

[Richard]

I will be convinced of the BNP's might when I see a Yougov poll.

[Peter Hatchet]

UKIP/BNP *Yawn*

UKIP/BNP *Yawn*

UKIP/BNP *Yawn*

Let's change the record, eh?

Come the next general election, with a serious chance of a change of government, both parties votes will dissolve into nothing.

We shouldn't worry about them, but be more concerned about giving enthusing floating voters to vote for us with a positive vision of how a Conservative Britain would be better AND different.

I've always thought "Social Responsibility" doesn't really cut the mustard - no-one knows what it means.

Why not; "Let's Fix Britain's Broken Society" or "Let's Make Britain More Civilised" as a slogan??

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Peter,

For a party your not bothered about why did DC make such a whining plea to white van man to vote for labour or lib dems if he didnt want to vote Tory.

Quiet shameful that in a PPB for your own party you are advertising for other parties and feel your own isnt good enough to vote for.

[Richard Carey]

For a party your not bothered about why did DC make such a whining plea to white van man to vote for labour or lib dems if he didnt want to vote Tory.

I'll try and make it very simple for you, "Freedom".

We would of course rather everyone voted Conservative! But in those cases where we simply cannot persuade people to support us, we would much rather they voted for another moderate, mainstream political party rather than a fringe party whose every policy is founded in the racism enshrined in the BNP constitution.

I hope that clarifies the message from the PPB for you.

[VOTE FREEDOM]

It just shows what a pitiful excuse for a party system the main three are and how the fringe parties you call them must be making in roads. If they wasn't making these inroads you wouldn't even bother to mention them. As you continue to say they supposedly only fight local elections, wont effect general elections, If they are so insignificant why not just carry on about your buisness.
But the truth is the BNP support has tripled in the past year alone and people only see the BNP as a credible party which will look after the needs of the British people. It is why in the past week many stories have been developed in the media about how the labour and tory parties will tackle immigration, But lets not forget the Tory party sees them as cheap labour for buisness and Labour also the same who has seen on their watch some 3 million people come to this country illigally you cant dispute the figures because to be honest there is no records kept by anyone. But you can see the effect by the way supermarkets and banks are branding goods to meet the needs of polish people and the way in which mass facotry jobs now only get supplied by immigrant led agencies.

This is what bothers the ordinary tax paying people of this country, A country which cant house or look after its own but opens its arms to the world. And if you want to talk harm towards foriegners how about the thousands of people killed thanks to the oil wars supported by both labour and tory parties. In which our own troops come home weekly in body bags.

The BNP are more than a one issue party but that one issue does effect all others.

[Richard]

The BNP are very effective as a protest voter. However, I suspect most BNP voters don't know of your plans to prevent us buying cheap goods from abroad, force new manufacturing companies to turn themselves into worker co-ops, force everyone to own an assault rifle and shut down successful and popular supermarkets.

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Whos scaremongering now ?

[Richard]

I'm reading from your 2005 manifesto. Those are your policies.

[Richard]

I'm reading from your 2005 manifesto. Those are your policies.

"Under this all law-abiding adults who have successfully completed their period of military service are required to keep in a safe locker in their homes a standard-issue military assault rifle and ammunition."

"Wherever new industries are created, therefore, worker-ownership schemes will be implemented as far as is practical."

"The fresh food sections of supermarkets, in particular, are a prime target for conversion into owner-run ‘urban markets'. And in view of their bosses' long record of exploiting British consumers and farmers, and of financing political parties and unhealthy technologies guaranteed to give them even more clout and profits, the supermarkets are entirely legitimate targets for radical and legally enforced change."

"Past nationalist proposals for reviving British industry have tended to begin and end with a plan to protect British industry by erecting tariff barriers, and then leaving conventional capitalist businesses to take advantage of the newly favourable trading conditions to rebuild our manufacturing base while making themselves huge profits. We, however, are acutely aware that tariffs on foreign manufactured goods are also an added tax on the ordinary families who buy those goods. And as radical nationalists we do not intend to tax our own people dry in order to benefit the self-same companies and businessmen who have spent the last few decades maximising profits by shipping in cheap labour and shipping out British jobs. Our new industrial and technological revolution must benefit the Many, not just the Few."

[David Sergeant]

I apreciate that diferent polls produce diferent results, but, just after the Brown pensions scandal and the Browne Gulf scandal the Tory support goes down. May I suggest it is because in dealing with these issues the Tories attacked the persons and not the Labour party. Inmterestingly the Lib/Dems have gone up at the same time. A plague on both your houses?

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Have you not seen the 2007 manifesto, Times and people change and you have to react to what the people now, not what is happening in the past.

But unlike DC we dont just make policies on the hoof just so we can win a few extra votes. Then again DC doesnt have many policies to defend considering they havent published any, I have noticed in areas where BNP candidates have been standing though. That the Tory candidates have mimiced BNP leaflets and policy and talked about immigration, that is why we have the point scoring coming up today by labour and why the tories have been flagging stories over the past week. The BNP bravely lead through the flack the other parties follow.

[Craig]

The Times is a Labour newspaper.

[Richard]

"Have you not seen the 2007 manifesto"

That's a local manifesto, not a national one. Fact is that the BNP has a policy of economic protectionism and state intervention that is central to its ideology. From "Our Stance" on your website:

"We will ensure that our manufactured goods are, wherever possible, produced in British factories, employing British workers."

This is not an old policy, it is existing policy otherwise it would have been removed.

[VOTE FREEDOM]

Richard.

And what is exactly wrong with having British people being employed to make British goods. Do you oppose this then ? Do you think the British economy does no longer need to make its own goods and would be best served importing everything ? Leaving us exposed to the whims of other countries who could put prices up and leave us at ransom to the world.

What jobs should British people do ? So in your eyes we should no longer produce anything ourselves then, what should we do ?

[Richard]

"And what is exactly wrong with having British people being employed to make British goods."

Nothing. I just don't see why I should be forced to buy a Rover instead of a Mercedes.

"Do you think the British economy does no longer need to make its own goods and would be best served importing everything ?"

Depends if consumers prefer imports.

"What jobs should British people do ?"

Whatever there's a demand for.

"So in your eyes we should no longer produce anything ourselves then, what should we do ?"

We seem to be doing very well at the moment.