Tories set to become second party of Wales

After all the excitement on this blog over the last 24 hours about Scotland...

An ITV Wales poll finds that the Tories are set to become the second largest party after next month's elections to the Cardiff Assembly.  These are the voting intentions of those who describe themselves as "certain to vote":

• Labour: 36% (40% in 2003) in the first-past-the-post constituencies and 35% (37%) via the top-up lists;
• Conservative: 23% (20%) and 24% (19%);
• Plaid: 20% (21%) and 20% (20%)
• Lib Dems: 15% (14%) and 15% (13%).

The poll increases the likelihood of an anti-Labour grand coalition in Wales emerging after May.

Earlier this week on ConservativeHome William Graham AM set out the case for voting Conservative in the Assembly Elections.

Plaid have been running very heavily against 'Labour's Englishness'.  The broadcast below typifies their campaign.

Comments

[Jennifer Wells]

That Plaid video is terrible. Any idiot can promise subsidies for housing and free laptops. The difficulty comes in paying for such election bribes.

[Ted]

Electioneering is all about "bribes" - that you will be better off if you vote for us. It' an effective video showing Labour as short of ideas with the London Party in the driving seat.

What the Conservatives need to do is squeeze the Lib Dem vote - wasted vote that'll just bring back the same old Labour Party supported by the LDs. Vote Welsh Conservative for change.

[Josh]

I can't see whatever medium has been posted, but I assume it's that PC broadcast featuring the incumbant government (portrayed as very English) suggesting they need bold ideas that PC have already conjured, including the batty notion of subsidising every thing moving and motionless.

They are quite nuts aren't they. No wonder they are seeing the same boom as the SNP.

[matt wright]

Don't forget that this is also a figure averaged across the whole of Wales. Parts of North Wales will be much better and some constituencies will be much better than others. Could be interesting result on May 3rd,

Matt

[Michael Rutherford]

Good luck to the Tories in Wales. We've never really been strong there, but maybe a very good campaign there will show that we're not quite as scary as might have been thought.

If we're on for 23%, you can't just put that down to the mmore English border towns.

[Richard]

Out of interest, what's the highest percentage of the vote the Tories have ever got in Wales?

[Matt Davis]

Coming a credible second place in Wales would be a truly impressive achievement and I can only wish all those Welsh Tories with sore feet and hoarse voices the very best of luck on May 3rd.

[TomTom]

Any idiot can promise subsidies for housing and free laptops.

Really ? Start recruiting a few of these idiots in England then, free prescriptions as well please £6.85 nett = £10 gross

[Oberon Houston]

Interesting, excuse my ignorance, but I thought the Welsh had no tax raising powers, or am I mistaken. If not, does their budget need to be neutral? Of course this is not the case in Scotland, where I think they can increase by +/-3%, and the SNP think its just +30%. The trouble with Scotland is that many in the electorate feel confused and isolated from the consequenses of spending decisions, therefore find it much harder to appreciate the effects of higher taxation. I'm sure that will change as soon as oil revenues get more cost neutral though. Unhealthy.

[Jonathan Isaby]

In December 1910 the combined Conservative and Liberal Unionist vote was 33.8%.

But in post-war politics, tbe high point for the Tories in Wales in terms of share of the vote was 1979 when they scored 32.2%, winning 11 of the 36 seats.

However, whilst they dropped to 31.1% in 1983, they advanced to win 14 of the 38 seats up for grabs.

Scores since then at General Elections
(% then seats)
1987 - 29.5%; 8/38
1992 - 28.6%; 6/38
1997 - 19.6%; 0/40
2001 - 21.0%; 0/40
2005 - 21.4%; 3/40