Scottish Tories are the "middle way"

Cameron defends Party after Scottish opinion polls:

"Tory leader David Cameron today dismissed poll findings suggesting his party is going nowhere in the Holyrood election campaign. He insisted the Tories were running "a very positive campaign" and said: "I don't make predictions."

And Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie said she was "relatively relaxed" about the poll findings. A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times put the Tories at 14% in the constituency vote and 13% in the list vote, equating to 16 seats, while a Scottish Opinion survey for the Mail on Sunday put them on 10% and 11%, equating to 13 seats.

Mr Cameron told BBC1's The Politics Show he was "passionate" about the Scottish Tories doing well.

"The argument in Scotland that I'm making is look, you had a Labour government in Scotland. If you don't want the divorce offered by the SNP, the Conservative party is now a moderate, sensible, centre right party."

He said the party cared about about personal responsibility, strong defence, for those left behind, and the environment. "It's a party there for people in Scotland who want that middle way, if you like," he said." (Press Association)

Deputy Editor

Comments

[601]

The middle way - sounds like someone we are tired of.

[Jaz]

"The middle way - sounds like someone we are tired of."

For Scots, I think they are tired of the usual rubbish they have to hear from labour and the SNP with regards to devolution/independence. Most Scots are probably more concerned about health, law and order and economic growth.

[Josh]

I think the Scots Tories will do better than those polls suggest. There is no doubt still a huge shy Tory factor in Scotland.

The sticking point is that round Aberdeen, I haven't seen a peep out of them. The incumbant Labour MSP is always sending round bumph as are the local LibDem and SNP activists. The Tories? Where are they?

Of course, there is always the South. Scotland seems to mirror much of England in this way.

[Jake]

Best of luck to the Scottish Tories .

um

-Any danger of Mr Cameron coming out with a specific reference to the English Tories -
AS SUCH -
or are we to be endlessly ignored ?

[John AShworth]

Why should the North East, North and West of Scotland vote for the Conservative Party that dumped the Fishing policy?

[Antony Calvert]

John - Because Labour have not, and will not, do anything for these communities.

[scottish beancounter]

All opinion polls have consistently understated the Conservative support in Scotland for as long as I can remember. The worst was the old System 3 which was bankrolled by the Herald, and which was shot down time after time by Prof John Curtice because of its flawed sampling procedure. It consistently understated Tory support by 4-5%
True Yougov has a better record nationally. I actually participated in the quoted survey--- (if it is the one done on Friday.) It took an inordinate amount of time to complete and I would imagine that quite a few folk wouldn’t have bothered to complete it. I wonder what size the sample was.( Are you reading this Mr Shakespeare ?)
The other major problem is that the Conservative support is far from consistent throughout Scotland, and this makes reliable sampling (of Tories) very difficult. For example in seats like Stirling, Dumfries, Perth, Galloway and Upper Nithsdale and Eastwood etc the Conservatives have consistently polled at least 10% and in many cases up to 15% above the national average, see www.alba.org.uk/ This figure will be slewed further in this election by tactical voting which in my view will be the biggest single factor on May 3rd.
Make no mistake Labour are in complete melt- down and they know it. I was out campaigning on Saturday and the most consistent comment was ‘I will vote for the party best placed to get Labour out’. The electorate are far more sophisticated now than pollsters give credit. They know who is best placed to get Labour out and they will vote to make sure of it.
In seats where the SNP are lying second (to Labour) they will succeed and in seats where the Conservatives are second there is every reason to believe that they will succeed. In most of these seats the SNP is a distant third or fourth and when Salmond says ‘it’s time’ the electorate will agree – ‘its time to give Labour a kicking’ but not necessarily by electing the SNP. Without doubt the Conservatives will hold all three FPTP seats they currently have should win Dumfries, Stirling and Eastwood. The Conservative list vote will however be squeezed and Salmond’s clever trick in asking people to vote for him as First Minister on the second ballot will sway a lot of folk. Sadly for the Conservatives the way the electoral system works in regions where they win a seat FPTP, they will likely loose a list member ending up in much the same position numerically.

[Josh]

Nice summary scots beancounter. Remember, there's more honour in a FPTP seat than a list seat. I hate STV, but if Holyrood insists on having a PR system, I wish they'd at least use this particular one rather than the bastardised AMS system we have. At least then, gains don't mean members lose their seats.

Wish there were more Tory campaigners round my way. Aberdeen is a wealthy city full of Englishmen getting rich off Scottish oil (like me). Should be ripe ground for picking up a few votes for a centre-right party.

[Scotty]

Excellent summary Scottish beancounter.
I would only disagree with your last argument, I think that the Scottish Conservatives will poll higher in the list vote and their FPTP vote will be squeezed more.
On the issue of their poll ratings, you are correct to argue that "The other major problem is that the Conservative support is far from consistent throughout Scotland, and this makes reliable sampling (of Tories) very difficult".
Voter turnout is the key, I think that the conservative core vote has always turned out at elections and that is the key to why they always do better than anticipated.
Message to David Cameron, get up here as much as you can in the next couple of weeks!
Changed days indeed, where as Blair and Brown are electoral poison for Scottish Labour and Ming and Stephen Nicol are a double dose of electoral mogadon, for the first time in years we have a national party leader who is attractive to those soft Labour/Libdem voters and they need an alternative.
Annabel Goldie is doing a great job and I hope she gets the credit she deserves.

[Honest Tory]

More proof, as if proof were necessary, that the Cameron effect is largely confined to the principle-free yuppies of the M25 ghetto.

And even for them Cameron is just a passing fad, soon to be replaced by some new political gimmick.

[J.Johns]

David Cameron and the full team need to fly into Scotland this week for at least two days and they need to visit Central and Northern areas as much as possible.Therein lies the key to upset the projected SNP,LAB,L/D applecart.

[Boy Blue]

Scottish Beancounter's analysis accords with all the evidence on the ground. Dunfries, Eastwood and Stirling are all now looking good for us. We also are in with a shout in Roxburgh & Berwickshire, Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, Orkney, and West Renfrewshire, where Annabel Goldie is of course the candidate.

The only disappointment so far is Perth, where despite this being on paper our No.1 target the Tory campaign is virtually invisible. I hear that the city is heing swamped with SNP activists while there is not a Tory to be seen. Whoever is running the campaign there needs a rocket up the backside. Roseanna Cunningham is an unpopular local MSP for the SNP and her scalp is there for the taking but we have to up our game in the last ten days.

[UKIP Webmaster]

There is a 'right' way for Scotland:
http://www.ukip.tv/?page_id=2

[Deputy Editor]

I wonder if the believed-to-be-imminent independence of the Scottish Party is a factor either way in voters' minds?

[Boy Blue]

Sorry, UKIP Webmaster, your Party is an absolute joke north of the Border. Complete bunch of loons. Every vote a wasted one.

[UKIP Webmaster]

"Sorry, UKIP Webmaster, your Party is an absolute joke north of the Border. Complete bunch of loons. Every vote a wasted one"
With the combined Lib Dem/Tory party polling 13 percent in Scotland and the 'others' now up to 11 per cent I think the joke's on you Boy-Bloo.

[charles]

I can't remember seeing a single UKIP poster, leaflet, advert, candidate or activist in Scotland, ever.
I don't doubt they exist but they are a pretty inefficient force on the whole.

The only mistake Boy Blue makes is saying they are joke. I don't think UKIP even registers with most voters in the first place to be able to understand the joke.

[UKIP Webmaster]

"I see the Tories are only at 4% in Scotland. I know they are doing badly, but I can't see them going that low! 10% for 'other minor parties' in Scotland seems very high...."
I love a good laugh don't you?

[Boy Blue]

Tell you what, UKIP Webmaster, I'll give you £10 for every UKIP seat in the Scottish Parliament after the Election if you give me £10 for every Tory seat. Deal?

[UKIP Webmaster]

Boy-Bloo
Keep your money - You'll need it to cover the huge Tory debts until the taxpayers bail you out.