Sarkozy would be good for France but not for Turkey

Only 0.69% of this blog's readers come from France so any endorsement this blog makes of Nicolas Sarkozy will be electorally irrelevant but ConservativeHome does think his agenda is preferable to the reheated tax-and-spend policies of his second round and socialist opponent, Segolene Royal.

Sarkozy describes himself as a 'man of the right' and set out six defining belief criteria to substantiate that description last year:

"First, the primacy of work... Second, the need to compensate personal merit and effort... Third, respect for the rules, and for authority... Fourth, the belief that democracy does not mean weakness; Fifth, values; Sixth, . . . I'm persuaded that, before sharing, you have to create wealth. I don't like egalitarianism."

There are real weaknesses to his agenda, however.  As Martin Callanan MEP wrote on YourPlatform last October - he is no reliable Eurosceptic and will largely follow Angela Merkel in her efforts to reheat parts of the EU Constitution that his country so soundly rejected.  He's also a protectionist and has backed Chirac's 'pickling industrial winners' policy.  Most disappointing is his opposition to Turkey's membership of the EU.

Fortunately, the British political establishment is largely united in supporting Turkey's ambitions.  Some UK Eurosceptics see Turkish membership as a way of thwarting political union and of delivering the kind of multi-layered, multi-speed Europe that many have long wanted.  More importantly, however, rejection of Turkey sends all the wrong signals to the Muslim world.  Liam Fox made the right case for Turkish membership of the EU last year - in a piece for The Sunday Telegraph:

"For Europe, the admission of Turkey to the EU is the primary test of whether the union can adapt to a changing world or whether it will become an increasingly introspective and redundant body. For European politicians, rejecting Turkey carries the risk of pushing this vitally important country into the arms of the political and religious extremists...

A senior French official complained to me last year that Turkish membership would mean that "we could never have a political Europe, only an economic one". Stifling a "three cheers to that", I pointed out what a sadly dated view of the world this was. Even more disturbing was the deeply unpleasant undercurrent present during the French and Dutch referendums last year on the EU constitution, where anti-Turkish sentiment was never far from the surface and mixed with constitutional arguments.  What a tragedy it would be if xenophobic elements in continental Europe had the net result of producing a much more fundamentalist Islamic state on the eastern border of Greece rather than a democratic beacon shining outwards from Europe to those denied the basic freedoms and rights we take for granted. What a mistake of truly historic proportions it would be if, by placating all that is negative in European politics, those in authority delivered future generations into a much more dangerous and destabilised continent."

Comments

[John Marsh]

I welcome the result in France if it means no Turkish membership of the EU. I don't frankly want hundreds of thousands of Turks coming to Britain and going to France - remember the Gov. estimate that only 15,000 would come from Eastern Europe whereas in fact 600,000 came. Enough is enough. If Turkey, then why not Tunisia and Morocco and anyone else. As usual the Conservative Party is completely out of touch - just like the Greg Dyke fiasco ! !

[comstock]

I'm all in favour of Turkey joining, but it would have to be on a restricted immigration basis. With a reasonable size Turkish community already in some parts of the country, we would become a bit of a magnet I fear.

Much as I'd love to see open borders, there simply isn't room for another wave a la Poland, and the Turks, although poor, are not the worlds poorest, nor are they under a repressive regime.

[Peter Hatchet]

Sarkozy is about as "sound" as you get on the continent of Europe. Certainly more so than Merkel.

It's a shame he's a protectionist - and an ever greater shame he's not eurosceptic - but this is France, remember, and eurosceptic politicians in France are very rare indeed.

I just hope he stands by his platform once elected and doesn't bottle out when faced by the inevitable street protests.

[Peter Hatchet]

..can I also add that whilst I'm not at all hostile to Turkish membership of the EU, I also share the concerns of the posters above regarding unlimited Turkish immigration across the EU.

It is clear that a strict immigration cap would be required. The numbers of immigrants that would seek entry into Britain from what is a desperately poor country of over 80 million people would be overwhelming.

[William Norton]

Has the Editor not considered that Semolina Royale might be our preferred outcome precisely because of her "reheated tax-and-spend policies"? A few more years of stale Mitterand-style tinkering and over-regulation should just about finish off our closest and dearest allies. I mean, we don't really want France to enjoy a Thatcher-style renaissance, do we? After all, if they go down the plughole, we'll all be able to pick up some vineyards and agreeable Dordogne gites on the cheap.

[Richard]

By all means bring Turkey in to clobber the political aspect of the EU project but ensure immigration limits are enforced (and while we're at it, try and re-enforce them on other EU countries).

I see Le Pen didn't do that well, I wonder to what extent Sarkozy managed to grab a load of his voters.

[comstock]

the numbers of immigrants that would seek entry into Britain from what is a desperately poor country of over 80 million people would be overwhelming.

It would certainly be a problem,even if we had the job vacancies.............. not least from a housing and healthcare point of view.

Whilst I freely admit I'm first and foremost posting from a British perspective, you also have to question how good mass emigration of skilled workers would be for Turkey's long term prospects......

[Andrew Woodman]

lol William.

[Mark Wadsworth]

But 27 is such a nice number (three cubed). If Turkey joins then somebody else will have to leave to make room, perhaps the UK would be so kind?

[comstock]

I don't know much about French politics but it looks like the left and the greens have about 10% of the vote between them. Royal needs to hope they turn out to support her. She also needs to hope Front National voters stay at home.

[Mark Fulford]

The EU’s many faults are just-about outweighed by the transformative power that the prospect of EU membership has upon its neighbours. If the rules are rigged against Turkey then the EU undermines its transformative power and, in my mind, the justification for its existence.

However, I share Comstock’s difficulty because I believe that this island is full – we do not have the natural resources to cope with an ever-increasing population. I’d like Britain to be able to limit immigration to the number which maintains a static (or slightly declining) population. Equally, I’d like to limit the foreign land-grab which comes with EU membership (driving property prices beyond local wages and thereby motivating workers to leave their native country).

I’d rather that Sarkozy was pro-Turkey and pro- the EU reform that will be required to allow further expansion. But if Sarkozy is going to be Merkell's poodle, I'd rather Segolene Royal.

[Daniel VA]

"More importantly, however, rejection of Turkey sends all the wrong signals to the Muslim world."

Good grief. I've said it before and I'll say it again - a token gesture to demonstrate that western Europe is not inherently anti-Islam is not a good enough reason to consider potential Turkish membership of the European Union.

Leaving aside the point that such an olive branch would be meaningless until the international community does more to curb the excesses of the Israeli government and try much harder to secure a fair deal for Palestine, any fair-minded, rational person ought to realise that western Europe is not inherently anti-Islam, and those that don't will hardly be convinced by a glorified PR exercise.

Turkey has no place in the European Union, and that will remain the case for a very long time while it continues to maintain the illegal occupying force in northern Cyprus, while it continues to oppress the Kurds, while it continues to neglect human and civil rights and while a vast chunk of the country remains an economic basketcase.

There is talk of membership of the EU being held out as an incentive for Turkey to rectify these deficiencies, but Turkey has grasped this carrot whilst dodging the stick as it pays little more than lip-service to serious reform.

[Jonnycaver]

I'm with you William, vote for Royale! France has some amazing cave diving in the Dordogne. It would be so much easier if we had could just buy the place up!
(PS. this is not a serious comment)

[Og]

A few years ago the thought of electing secular Turkey to the EU club seemed a good idea, but Turkey is no longer the Kemalist secular state that it was. It now has an Islamist government. It has cancelled trade deals with Israel. Mark Steyn wrote recently that the Turkish PM is ignoring the (Jewish) US Ambassador, and has denounced the Iraqi elections.

But even if Turkey was to manage its economic and foreign affairs with exemplary skill and efficiency, we could expect hundreds of thousands, probably millions of economic migrants to the EU, the ramifications of which are not simply economic.

Where, logically, does the EU stop? If nearly everyone wants to join, and the EU itself is outward-reaching, why not put the humane killer to the forehead of the pathetic UN and start again, with the Brussels model bestriding the globe? Imagine the unending good that a global Woy Jenkins could do. This is a job for a man with no foolish modesty about his own capabilities - Blair, the world awaits your candidacy.

[Mark]

I agree with Daniel VA.

No way should Turkey be let into the EU until they sort their human rights record out and get their trops out of Cyprus.

[Matthew Dear]

It's interesting that all the books and sources I ever looked at whilst studying European history consider that the Ottoman Empire was unequivocally a European empire.

[Editor]

That's right Mark (13:56) but the road to EU membership is surely one of the best ways of encouraging the changes you wish Turkey to make?

[Mark Fulford]

Turkey has no place in the European Union, and that will remain the case for a very long time while it continues to maintain the illegal occupying force in northern Cyprus, while it continues to oppress the Kurds, while it continues to neglect human and civil rights and while a vast chunk of the country remains an economic basketcase.

Daniel, the reasons you put forward to block Turkey's membership are all absolutely sound. To change them we need a lever -- such as the genuine prospect of EU membership. Unfortunately Sarkozy doesn't have your soundness. He says:

On this matter, I have always been clear: I do not think Turkey has a right to join the European Union because it is not European.

So, despite France's EU territory extending into the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, Sarkozy says that Turkey can't join (and the EU can't influence them) because of abstract lines on a map.

[Adam]

So, Turkey is what will bring about a multi-speed Europe is it?

Funny, I thought that's what Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Cyprus, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria were bringing about. I thought that's what we actually had courtesy of the UK, Sweden and Denmark.

Oh well, I guess we can try the experiment again, and our eurosceptic vanguard can sit on their arses again and be surprised when no-one actually comes flocking to them desperate to forge the EU into a shiny new free-trade-bloc-only vision. It's all rather pathetic.

[William Norton]

I really must object to people dragging in all this irrelevant Turkey side-issue, Vote Royale

[malcolm]

France always presents me with a dilemma.What we can all be assured of is that a President of France of whatever hue will act only in the narrow interests of France.
I don't particularly want our PM of whatever hue to have to negotiate with an able French president so I would support whoever is deemed the more incompetent of the two.
As regards Turkey and the EU I'm not sure we should be encouraging anyone to join a club that many of us don't want to be members of anyway.

[Mary Hinge]

I don't care who is President of France, but I am passionate about not letting Turkey into the EU.

[Og]

Wm Norton, you need Travolta to head up your ad campaign, under the "Royale with Cheese" slogan.

[Londoner]

I admire William Norton's singlemindedness but has he considered that more socialist laws in France might make the vineyard he would acquire worthless, as over-regulation finally delivers a knock-out victory to Australia and S Africa, and his gite unsaleable due to the heavy burden of property taxes?

Also has he taken into account the even greater influx of the French professional classes into southern England competing for all our jobs?

I don't think William is being entirely transparent here - like me he has obviously noticed that M. Royale is amazingly good looking for a woman of a certain age and thinks her election is the only way to keep her appearing on our TV. It would also be amusing to see Gordon Brown trying to charm her wouldn't it? Will it be the chewing of body parts or the active use of his index figure which she will find more alluring?

[Londoner]

On a slightly more serious note, has anyone else noticed that the domestic BBC (Radios 4 & 5 certainly) keep referring to Sarkozy as the "right wing" candidate, whereas early this morning when Radio 4 was still taking the feed from the World Service, I noticed that they were simultaneously calling him "centre right"? (as does the current BBC website story)

Why is it that the BBC is so careful with accuracy on its services with worldwide exposure and yet doesn't bother to disguise its prejudice when broadcasting for domestic consumption? It's difficult to see why one would call Sarkozy "the right wing candidate" in the context of an election with a candidate to the right of him getting over 10% of the vote, unless some anti point is being made ("right wing" usually being a pejorative), and M. Royale is not called "left wing".

[Daniel VA]

"Daniel, the reasons you put forward to block Turkey's membership are all absolutely sound. To change them we need a lever -- such as the genuine prospect of EU membership. Unfortunately Sarkozy doesn't have your soundness."

But as I said Mark, Turkey has grasped the carrot of prospective EU membership whilst dodging the stick of reform.

There is of course another serious issue which I neglected to mention, and which I suspect is probably the real reason underlying opposition to Turkish accession - the demographic complications that would ensue from Turkish membership and the change to the power balance within the EU.

[Mark Wadsworth]

William, Og and Londoner, her surname is "Royal" without an "e" at the end. It is also alleged in certain quarters that The Goblin King is immune to womanly charms.

[anthony scholefield]

Turkey has been in the Customs Union so it has free movement of goods services and capital. The only thing missing is free movement of people and obviously we need an influx of low skilled labour which nhas massive external social and economic costs.

[Mark Fulford]

"Turkey has grasped the carrot of prospective EU membership whilst dodging the stick of reform."

Life is never easy for reformers. Turkish reformers will only stand a chance of winning their political battle when Turks believe that the carrot of EU membership is genuine. Comments like Sarkozy’s give the Turkish old-guard all the ammunition they need.

Plus it's up to us to aim the stick better.

[wasp]

The Turkish Cypriots overwhelmingly voted for unification - it has been the Greek inhabitants that have recently chosen to perpetuate the division of the Island.

How can Turkey be expected to withdraw from Cyprus without unification?

[TomTom]

So French voters can rest assured French votes for a French President are for French interests.

Just what purpose does Mr Erdogan serve ?

Would it be better for him to be President and turn Turkey into another Pakistan ?

Are we really so relaxed about Christians being bound hand-and-foot and having their throats slit ? So much more fuss was made about a few cartoons - even by the British Government - and over a speech by The Pope on Greek philosophy and Byzantium......but halal slaughter of Christians is so commonplace apparently it causes no stir.

Perhaps Erdogan will be careful when discussing Armenia in France....they have laws

[William Norton]

Mark W:William, Og and Londoner, her surname is "Royal" without an "e" at the end.

Her name isn't Semolina, either, but you all got the point. Og gets today's bonus point for recognising the post-modern ironic Tarantino reference. The french socialists (Nouvelle Labeur) are presumably royale-with-cheese-eating-surrender-monkeys.

I admit that the flaw in my theory is that over-regulated France would render my cheap vineyard cheaper and unsellable - in which case I would just have to drink the plonk myself. Tough, but on St George's Day I pledge myself to meet that challenge.

[comstock]

Why is it that the BBC is so careful with accuracy on its services with worldwide exposure and yet doesn't bother to disguise its prejudice when broadcasting for domestic consumption? It's difficult to see why one would call Sarkozy "the right wing candidate" in the context of an election with a candidate to the right of him getting over 10% of the vote

To be fair, they refer to Royal as the left wing candidate, or the socialist, even though 10% of the electorate voted for someone to the left of her. Sky News also refered to the election as a straight 'left versus right fight'.

Don't know enough about him to comment how much he is "centre" and how much "right", .......

[sjm]

And do you suppose entering the EU will force the Turks to abandon their heinous laws against anyone promoting 'anti-Turkishness'? Will denying the Armenian massacres in Turkey be a criminal offence? I think the answer to both of those is 'NO'.

And thanks, Tom-Tom, I thought I was the only one who had noticed the increasing murder of Christians in Turkey - yeah, I can just see Brussels having a benign influence on that violence, just as they have in Palestine. NOT.

[Sef]

What about the poor Turks in all of this? What have they done to deserve EU Membership?

[tired and emotional]

Turkey has no chance of becoming a beacon of democracy shining out of anywhere... the army is only force that prevents the Islamists from entirely taking over. Already much of the leadership come from Islamist parties. Allowing Turkey to join the EU would be a calamity of the highest order. I truly believe that it would be the final nail in the coffin for Christian Europe. Muslim populations in all euro countries with big welfare states would surge along with all the associated problems. Muslims make up only 2% of our population and yet we have thousands of homegrown jihadis eager to turn Britain into a Muslim state... imagine the stresses and strains on the country if the Muslim population was 10% of the whole... areas of the major cities would become like Malmo in Sweden or the banlieues of Paris. Turkey must never join Europe. Islam must be kept out.

[blindness]

Turkey should not join EU unless UK and many other ex-colonial European countries apology for the genocides they committed in America, Africa, Australia, Asia.. Ehhmm what's left? Moon?

UK should withdraw their soldiers from Cyprus and stop the illegal war and murders in Iraq. It is time to get more civilized and respect human rights.

EU should revoke Cyprus's membership as Cyprus is only 60 miles from Syria and 40 miles from Turkey. It is obviously not in Europe. Even Africa (250 miles to Egypt) is closer to Cyprus then Europe.

North Europeans should not be allowed to settle and purchase property in Turkey for at least 50 years until they prove that won't be on drugs and alcohol most of the day. We don't want another Spain.

And fundamentalist Christians... They should be kept in the Churches for a safer world.

Cheers!

[Laurent]

The goal of Europe Union is not to help Turkey solve its internal problems, but first to help Europeans solve their own internal problems, which is already a great challenge.
Anyway Turkey is in no way - geographicaly or culturaly - a European country, so it is obvious to me it has nothing to do with Europe. People who advocate for Turkey in Europe, don't think about a European Union but just about as an Economic Union.
I don't now if we will make that Europe political union - still a far dream - but I'm sure we can't do it with Turkey.

[Atilla]

As a Turkish citizen and a staunchly secular Kemalist, I strongly oppose the European Union membership. I also cannot see the potential benefit of this union for my people. We already benefited from the "Custom's Union" and have been developing our economy. Full membership will stifle this progress because of increased interference from the EU side. I am also appalled by people who state that if Turkey did not become an EU member, then it would march closer to fundamentalist Islam. Wake up and smell the coffee people, the only reason the present Islamist party is pushing harder to weaken the secular roots of my country is because their reliance on support from the EU governments. With Sarkozy heading France and Merkel leading Germany, it is obvious that the Turkish membership is not a plausible reality. So our politicians should wake up at tell EU to take their marble and go home. I also would like to see strict limitations brought on ownership right of Europeans in Turkey. More of your old and useless have been migrating our way, and they should go back where they came from.

[Marcel]

Turkey will never be let in and rightfully so. It's treason to European and western culture. Anyone who advocates Turkish accession should be shot imho.