2007 local elections briefing

I attended a press briefing on the forthcoming local elections at CCHQ this morning.  It was given by one of my favourite Tory MPs - the straight-talking, no-nonsense Eric Pickles.  Here are some of his key observations about the elections:

• They are, he said, 'The Big One'.  In addition to the Scottish and Welsh elections (about which he did not brief) these will be the biggest test of public opinion before the next European Elections (and probably the next General Election).  Londoners are the  only significant non-voting population.
• The Tories - the largest party in local government - are "defending a high base."  The party is defending 4,345 councillors (52.4% of all our local government seats), Labour is defending 2,375 (45.9%) and the LibDems 2,422 (55.4%).
• Labour are at their lowest level since 1977 and further losses would be very serious.  He discounted the likelihood of Labour becoming the third party of local government.  [I don't think that was just spin].
• Bedford, Mansfield and Middlesborough are directly-electing mayors.
• He predicted that the Tories will gain councillors, vote share and will increase their proportion of seats contested (83.4% four years ago).
• He would not predict gains in the deserts of Gateshead, Knowsley, Liverpool, Manchester or Newcastle but he did predict that there would be gains throughout Yorkshire, the North East and the North West (where the party is second overall).
• Election results will be much slower this year (largely unavailable until late on Friday) for three main reasons:
  • Longer polling hours;
  • New procedures to verify postal votes;
  • Gershon savings that mean many councils will be counting on Friday rather than Thursday night (because of the lower cost of employing counting staff).

Related link: Last year's local elections briefing

Comments

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Any chance of a map as with last year so we can see what's going on where? (and to name & shame those Assocations who don't have elections & do naff all in neigbouring marginals)

[HF]

If we can gain more than 500 it will be real progress.

Also be good to take a lot from Lib Dems (2,400 English being defended) and if they had an overall net loss Ming would come under pressure.

I agree with Margaret, a map of "untouched" areas would be useful.

[Paul D]

A disappointment that we have no ambitions in Manchester or Liverpool. I remember reading during the whole "Dave's hoodie" incident a few weeks ago that one of the Manchester community leaders was thinking of standing as a Tory candidate this year. Either he's changed his mind or his chances are being written off already - either way it's disappointing. Similarly in Liverpool, I recently read the thread about the amalgamation of the Liverpool Associations and people on there suggested some realistic target wards, we really should be seriously looking to make inroads, even if we don't yet pick up seats there

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

We do have ambitions in Liverpool and Manchester - but last year expectations ran well ahead of where we actually were on the ground.

We are running full slates in most of our northern cities - compare that with how Labour do in their weakest areas. I know a significant amount of work has gone into Manchester, and I know Rob Adlard in City Centre ward Manchester is very much in the mix. He'd make a fantastic Councillor for his local area, and I hope he'll be successful come May 3rd.

[Josh]

Do you mean to tell me that there is not going to be the classic election night? What's the point of that? That's the best part about democracy.

[Sean Fear]

In the Fifties and Sixties, only about half the seats would have been counted on the night of the poll.

When you had an election like 1964, people genuinely had no idea who was going to win when they went to bed.

[James]

I think we do have ambitions in Manchester or Liverpool, but they are twofold: full participation for the first time since 1992(as mentioned on the Boris Johnson thread), and serious inroads into a couple of key seats - but I don't think we'll make the mistake of assuming that we are bound to win one. Making at least 2 wards in each city closely marginal (such that it is realistic that we could win them next time) is a target - if at this stage one that feels instinctively disappointing. We are starting from a very low base in these places. Plus if we can supplant Labour as the largest party in Birmingham I'd be very pleased!

[Michael Rutherford]

In York we're all feeling very positive. We have a full supply of 47 candidates (we only challenges about half of the seats last time), and are campaigning to go from 0 councillors to taking the council.

While this may seem unlikely, we have at least 20 candidates that are doing their best to win their seats and are challenging traditionally ignored seats such as Fishergate and Hull Road where we get a good proportion of the vote, but never make an effort.

Our manifesto launch is next week and we hope to do the Conservative party proud in May.

[Paul D]

Good luck Michael. With the carve-up giving York Outer, notionally at least, to the LibDems, a good showing in May would leave us well placed to take that particular seat

[top of the shot]

Margaret refers to those who dont have elections to name and shame them. As these are only to be found in the London Area, perhaps someone could firstly shame those constitencies who did not help the London target boroughs last year. Not all areas in the Home Counties retire in thirds.

[John Moss]

Please do not assume that; a) there are no elections in London, or; b) All London seats are like K&C or Hammersmith with so many activists all they can do with them is farm them off to the A list.

We have a by-election in Chingford on 26 April and one in Westminster on 3 May. We also have Conservative deserts as barren as Gateshead and Knowsley in places like Newham and in parts of other Boroughs like Waltham Forest and Barking & Dagenham.

Some Associations in these areas struggle to raise an Executive, let alone a campaign team which can travel out of area.

That said, efforts are afoot to see if we can get an "East London" team out to Thurrock on polling day. So if anybody from the Lea to the Thames wants to assist, please e-mail me.

[Martin Wright]

Given the recent decline in previously high standards of electoral practice, I'm dismayed at the thought that there'll be an overnight delay before the count begins.

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Top of the shot - it isn't just London without elections. Some districts elect in halves: last year & next, but not this.

John Moss - with respect "We do have elections - one by-election 26 April & one 3 May"???!!!! London has 1/8 of Britain's population - surely 2 by-elections aren't going take up THAT many party members!

[Wanabee activist]

Don't know whether there are ambitions in Liverpool at all. I moved to the city late last year and have been trying to join my local constituency party. There isn't one. There is now Liverpool Conservatives, but the only application form I was sent (a couple of months after my initial enquiry) was to join Conservatives in the Northwest. I have spoken to the Liverpool Conservatives about this on a couple of occasions, but have had no feedback. The local election campaign has now started, and I'm ready to do my bit. Either we have no ambitions, or we are so inundated with activists that my assistance is not required.