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"1% energy saving"!!

That'll excite the voters.

Well, i hold no hopes at all for the Welsh Cons in the forthcoming elections. I think the poll showing voter recognition of the 'top players' in the assembly only Rhodri Morgan scored a significant rating ( and even that was poor). Even the First Minister of Wales cannot be recognised in his OWN country. Just ask the BBC staff who were making up extras for the first season of the new Doctor Who! If THEY have no idea who the 'hot rhod' is, i don't think they will have a clue who Nick Bourne is!

from discussions among the informed sources on Politicalbetting I think the Conservatives can expect a reasonable showing in Wales - probably an increase in seats but a fall in the top ups. The thing about Wales is that there is an absence of a real Welsh media - unike Scotland - so many Welsh voters will get their news about politics from the London based media. Not surprising then that knowledge of the Welsh Assembly politicos is low.

Lets hope that the Welsh Conservatives can deliver a Welsh manifesto - not one decided on in CCHQ but one that is really localist and focussed on what Wales needs.

You should vote Conservative because you support conservative principles and values - not just for a change!

Is their request to "vote Welsh Conservative" in the singular because there is only one of them?

@Ted

The thing about Wales is that there is an absence of a real Welsh media -
What about Channel 4 Wales, BBC Wales, Western Mail - aren't they welsh media?

Despite their invisible (and seemingly English) leader, the Welsh Conservatives should do well in May. Enthusiasm for Rhodri has evaporated, and Plaid's cooperation with Labour over the budget won't go down well with their grassroots.

@CDM

Enthusiasm for Rhodri has evaporated, and Plaid's cooperation with Labour over the budget won't go down well with their grassroots.
What do the polls say?

Welsh Conservatives should produce a dvd of the cringeworthy appearance on Question Time last year of Rhodri Morgan and distribute it to every household in Wales.

Dave Bartlett - yes but in the English regional sense. Look at readership of Western Mail in Wales versus the London media. Most Welsh don't watch Channel 4 Wales and BBC Wales. Scotland however has a very developed Scots media - special editions of national press.
BBCi has an article on Tory hopes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6413723.stm
Too many Tories remember the wipe out in 97 - the party has recovered and if allowed a Welsh identity can I think continue to grow there.

I'm always suspicious of "private polling". Conservative private polls predicted that they'd do a lot better in 2001.

What I find extremely frustrating about the PR hybrid systems in place in both Wales and Scotland is their total inertia.

A decent swing to the Conservatives of 3-5% could result in a negligible increase in seats as the top-ups are simply switched for constituency seats.

It is very difficult to achieve any sort of meaningful change unless the % swing is very high. It also helps keep Labour at a high level of representation.

Welsh & Scottish voters have very few tools at their disposal to effect decisive change.

I doubt there will be many Conservative net gains in Wales.

The % swing might be higher than you think. In 2003 when we were in the doldrums I got a 5.5% swing in a strong Labour area. The feedback at the moment is much better in a better seat. See by-election results in the Vale of Clwyd in the latest news item on my web site - www.cllrmattwight.com

Matt

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