Tory lead down from 11% to 4%

A Communicate Research poll for tomorrow's Independent puts the Tory lead down to 35% to 31% compared to 40% to 29% last month.  The LibDems are up 3% to 20%.  A rogue poll?

9am update (28/3): "Communicate Research, it should be said, has built up a reputation for turbulence and unlike all the other pollsters has found Labour leads twice in the past five months. Its final poll before the last general election predicted an 8% Labour margin against the 3% that actually happened. All the other pollsters were closer including the firm which the Indy then used - NOP which got it spot on." (PoliticalBetting.com)

Comments

[Alistair]

Well this comes as no surprise.

Once the insubstantial Cameron froth had blown away it was inevitable that a necesary correction would take place.

Unfortunately the Labour Party is currently suffering from self-inflicted problems and until the new leader is in place its inevitable that Labour's credibility will suffer.

Soon that's all going to change.

[Chris]

Not sure why you're still including CR in the poll of polls Tim, their methodology is as robust as MORIs ie. As unified as the Labour party.

Mike Smithson over at political betting has been reporting that CR are undergoing a methodology review at present, and experimenting with different weighting methods, and consequently even CR polls aren;t comparable to other CR polls, let alone the works of other pollsters.

[J Smythe]

CR and its leader Deborah M are the in house Brown pollsters and produce the most biased MR rot of any pollster.

The blind leading the near blind in number 11.

[malcolm]

Let's hope it is a rogue poll. Nothing much has happened in the past week to boost the Lib Dems by such a great amount in the past few days.
Who is this Alistair person? Not Alex Forsyth/Mark McCartney and others blogging under yet another name perchance?

[Mark Fulford]

Alistair, it's my observation that left-wingers who make reasoned comments, e.g. Comstock and Passing Leftie, are very welcome on this blog. But what do you imagine that mindless heckling will achieve?

[Ted]

J Smythe - CR have nothing to do with Deborah M and Opinion Leader Research.

The suprising thing in this poll is that the Labour vote has stayed around the 30% mark. CR has been volatile with Labour often in high 30's. Though since changing methodology they seem less prone to Labour leads

Date Con L LD Oth Con Lead
Oct 06 38 32 14 16 +6
Nov 06 34 36 17 13 -2
Dec 06 36 37 14 13 -1
Jan 07 34 29 21 16 +5
Feb 07 40 29 17 14 +11
Mar 07 35 31 20 14 +4
(thanks David Herdson Pb.com)

Still need a few more polls with their new methodolgy to establish their track record. Can't draw any conclusions until we see the next YouGov, ICM (and BPIX,Mori). Could be a rogue, Feb could have been in high range of margin of error with this month in lower or there could be a fall back from earlier polls this month.

[Ted]

malcolm - no mention of FCS or tales about party events so not the usual suspect/s.

[Matt Davis]

Let's all just wait and see what the real polls, May's local elections, bring shall we. Now that's a real test of public support with no weighting or methodology issues.

[Andrew Woodman]

Alistair is a desperate Labour troll Malcolm, who is best ignored.

I strongly suspect this poll is rogue. Both this one and the previous. Splitting the difference leaving us on 38/37, Labour 31/30 and Lib Dems 18/17 is probably nearer the truth.

[Andy Stidwill]

Just when conservativehome.com's poll of polls was about to reach 40% for the Tories, this poll comes along and messes it all up.

[Peter Coe]

So just to be clear: when CR reported a Tory lead of 11% last month that was spot on but now it's only 4% CR are disreputable and this is a rogue? I see!

I think the true Tory lead is probably somewhere between the two, but remember that the last poll was just after cash for honours blanket coverage, whereas in the past month coverage has been (while not favourable), certainly less unfavourable to Labour - and Blair also did well on Comic Relief which loads of ordinary punters will have seen.

I'd have thought the Northern Ireland resolution will give Labour an extra bump, but these are temporary - nonetheless 11% Tory leads always looked deeply suspect, so be prepared for things to settle down a bit at around a 6% Tory lead by the council elections.

[Peter Coe]

Matt Davis: of course the local elections have weighting issues - they're not conducted in London, for a start and
relatively few wards feature all three major parties competing against each other.

They're a decent measure of support, but not an absolutely accurate one - not least because some people do still vote for councillors on local issues, the Lib Dems always are stronger in local polls than national ones, Labour always underperforms in local elections compared to its national poll rating.

[Ted]

malcolm - though "have close relatives in Lancashire","In my experience .... and much the better for it." "insubstantial Cameron froth" and the personal attacks on Iain Lindley and Annabelle do have the echo of you know who don't they.

Still no Labour recovery in the polls, though a bit disappointing. Another poll makes more grim reading for Labour and the Union so not sure what I feel about it.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/magnus_linklater/article1577373.ece
Good that this would mean no Lab/LD coalition in Scotland but SNP largest Party?

[Chris]

Peter, if you actually consult last months poll's (http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/02/communicaterese.html#comments) comments you will find that people were airing concern then as well. People slate CR and MORI whether the results looks good or bad!

[Gammarama]

All polls are rouge!

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

I'm not too worried, as I tend not to take too much notice of the polls (even when we have big leads). I can say, as a Conservative Chairman in a very challenging seat, that people I talk to are increasingly fed up with Labour and see David Cameron as a breath of fresh air.

Now this is a true story: about a month ago, I attended the funeral of my Godmother's mother. At the wake – held at a modest house in the middle of Tottenham - I met a mixture of people - about 80 in all. My Godmother's husband is from Burma, as were many of the family's friends. There were also many white working-class people present - Joan's relatives, neighbours and close friends who grew in or around Tottenham.

I was introduced, half seriously, by George, my Godfather, as "the political one who campaigns across Tottenham".

The first person (a white working-class lady in her mid fifties: "That's nice to note. But you're not bloody Labour, are you?”

Before I could say anything, a local nurse, of Burmese origin, chipped in: "We've just lost an operating theatre and 34 beds. At the weekend the hospital had just 50 beds available for patients. Labour has done nothing for the staff or for patients care. All I do in fill in forms".

A young nursery nurse, with parents from Cyprus, added: I liked Tony Blair but distrust that Gordon Brown! I like that Cameron bloke and I'm going to vote for him". She finally asked, "which party to you support, then?"

"Conservative" was the reply. The room erupted into applause. A it odd – given that it was a wake!

I think my experience is interesting for two reasons.

1. People were making anti-Labour and pro-Conservative comments before they even knew I was a Conservative (statically, I was more likely to be a Socialist given the make-up for the seat).

2. This happened in the middle of Tottenham – a seat regarded as ‘safe’ for Labour.

Hope this cheers you up. These were real people in a Labour ‘stronghold’ who are fed up with Labour and are turning to us Conservatives. I suspect things are looking increasingly promising in all the marginals…

Even the Vicar asked me to arrange a postal vote for him!

[matt wright]

I am finding the same thing in canvassing across different areas. Maybe the poll is right maybe it isn't, but my strong gut feeling is its wrong. Maybe its somewhere in between this poll and the better ones. We will find out on may 3rd and my bet is we will do well,

Matt

[Dean]

Labour 10% behind SNP in Scotland

Now, if Gordon could encourage this further and find an English seat then he might be able to truly offer middle England a tax cut and service improvements . . .

[Richard]

When was this poll taken? What percentage were "don't know"?

[Richard]

One wonders what the effect of the Iranian hostage crisis will have on things, especially if it drags on and Labour appear impotent (although to be fair there's not much the Tories could suggest apart from shout a bit louder).

Then there was Cameron's speech reported on the front of the Telegraph today that I expect will go down well.

[Chris]

Richard field work was done on the 23rd to 25th. 28% of the sample didn't vote in the last election. Unweighted results gave 8% refusing to answer, and 11% don't knows.

Iain Dale just did a brilliant job dismissing this oll on 18 doughty street, after finding out CR had done it. Also it's on page 4 of the independent tommorow, hardly makes you think even they believe it!

[Scotty]

Chris @ 22:38 summed up this poll and pollster correctly.
You cannot even compare the results over the last few months because CR are undergoing a methodology review
Tim, you cannot even compare the results over the last few months because CR are undergoing a methodology review, I would discount it at present from your poll of polls data until it has settled on its methodology and built up a reliable track record.

[Resto]

"Tory lead down from 11% to 4%" Er, no it isn't - it's a 'poll' from the discredited Communicate Research.

PoliticalBetting, run by a Lib Dem, heap scorn on CR. Why does ConservativeHome, run by a Tory, take them at their own estimation? I'd say the same if CR showed a 20% Tory lead, by the way.

If ICM, YouGOv or Populus hit the Tories with a big drop then, fine, report it straight because it would matter - but not this rubbish.

[Yet Another Anon]

Let's all just wait and see what the real polls, May's local elections, bring shall we.
Low turnout, protest votes and some more localised voting added to mid term effects mean that the Local Elections may well not indicate much. Since 1999 Labour has continued to win General Elections but done dreadfully in Local & European Elections - in the 1983 Local Elections Labour got 35% of the vote shortly before getting 27.5% in the General Election, with William Hague, IDS and Michael Howard as leader the Conservative Party got in the high 30's percent of the vote nationally, in 1999 with William Hague as Leader the Conservatives got 36% of the Vote in the European Elections and Labour got less than 30%, Labour got 22% in 2004 in the European Elections and 35.2% of the vote the following year in the General Election.

As for the opinion polls - it could be doubts over whether there is any substance to David Cameron and if he is what he is trying to portray himself and his entourage as that is making a difference, of course polls are affected by all kinds of things such as how embarrassed people are about saying how they would actually vote - could be that people have become more ready to admit to planning to vote Labour or Liberal Democrat, then of course there is the possibility of mistakes, the people participating in polls are those agreeing to it are only a tiny part of the total population who agree to participate and who are selected by the polling organisation, people lie to pollsters and also in an actual polling booth on the day of the General Election may well be more likely to think more deeply about how they vote and might vote for an incumbent they don't like because they are worried that an alternative portraying themselves as the same will be no better and might be worse - the better the devil you know factor.

[Tapestry]

This poll also gives 'others' 15% - up from 9% 2 years ago.

Less than 50% are likely to vote in GE's for major parties now in total. The growth rate of the minors could be so high as they are pulling from the 50% uncommitted voters.

[Tory T]

Last month when the lead was 11% I was rubbishing CR. Nothing has changed. There is a Mori poll due out today. Let's see.

ICM, Populus and YouGov are generally considered more reliable and the 'Big 3'. It would be better if the ConHome poll pf polls stuck to them.

Anthony Wells on his site advises treating the volatile CR with extreme caution. As does politicalbetting.com.

That said, it *could* be a big drop in numbers likely to vote Tory - but I think you would need to see that in the big 3, who are presently showing the reverse. Sadly, with any poll, good or bad, the only thing to do is wait for the next poll and see if the trend is picked up.

[Tory T]

Interesting though to see a Tory lead of 4%, after so many years of trailing Labour, dismissed as a "rogue poll" b/c it is too small! Just shows how far the party has come :)

[Steve]

Get real, Labour would be within 6% if Lady Di was taking over from Bliar. They still dont get it that ordinary people would be EMBARRASSED to vote NuLab after all they have done. The wheels finally came off after Lebanon and with all the sleaze teh public caught up with what we have known for ages. Think how upset the Labour Party was when they lost with Kinnock? The polls not accurate in my opinion and the real difference is prob larger than 11%. The trouble is this is all down to NuLab demise, not Tory progress (it is not progress to be ahead or look like getting elected), with the final result depending on DC adopting some policy that returning Tory, existing Tory could vote for. The mid ground NuLab defectors have no choice but to vote Tory or abstain.

No ordinary person is going to vote for torture, war, lies, casino, olympic funding and TAXES. It may not be scientific but once you leave the politically aware environment they are simply unelectable. If they stood a chance then someone would stand against Brown wouldnt they? Peter Sutcliffe would beat Brown in a popularity contest.

[Alistair]

Oh yes of course,this poll shows a big Tory drop, so of course it must be a "rogue poll"

Reading Mr Hinchcliffe's off-the-wall fantasies I gather something rather stronger than tea and biscuits is served up at wakes these days.

Why don't we turn to a rather more authoritative comment?

TORY leader David Cameron suffered a massive poll blow last night, following Gordon Brown's 2p tax cut in the Budget.

The Tories are now on 35 per cent - down five per cent - with Labour up two to 31 and the Lib Dems on 20, up three.

The bursting of the Cameron bubble was long feared by the Tory high command.

Senior Tories fear rightwingers could even rebel and demand more hardline policies if Mr Cameron fails to maintain his lead in the polls.

One told The Mirror: "We have to hold our nerve.

"If we give in to the right-wing of the party when Gordon Brown comes back at us, we will lose just like we have in the last three elections."

The poll will be seen as a success for Mr Brown.

Labour strategists have long believed he will be able to beat Mr Cameron when he is allowed to tackle the Tory leader head on.

Last week's Budget where Mr Brown cut income tax was one of his first chances to battle directly with Mr Cameron.

The poll, carried out by Communicate Research for The Independent, reveals it is largely due to middle-income families coming back to Labour.

Only one in four manual labourers, who kept Margaret Thatcher in power, had been backing Labour. But after the Budget the figure soared to 32 per cent.

The Tories are also losing support amongst the tax-paying age groups.

They have dropped from 40 per cent to 36 among 25 to 34-year-olds.

CommunicateResearch surveyed 1,002 adults from March 23-25.

[Voice from the South West]

Communicate Research are as reliable as MORI (i.e. not at all). To lose 5% in a single poll is always rather suspicions, and the fact that CR polls seem to vary massively from poll to poll suggests that we should take these findings with a pinch of salt. If the other polling companies start showing a narrowing lead then we can start to worry. Regardless, I still think the Party is on course to do very well in the local elections.

[bw]

Alistair is spot on. The Tories haave a major image problem once you head north past Birmingham, i.e that they are a party of rich, privileged toffs who speak with plummy accents. This plummy image may play well in the southern shires but in most northern urban areas the party is a joke. I keep reading comments on this site suggesting that the Tories have suddenly discovered a social conscience as opposed to their instinctive callousness. When did this miraculous about-turn happen? Has Disraeli risen from the grave???

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

"Reading Mr Hinchcliffe's off-the-wall fantasies..."

It's a true story!

[Ted]

bw

According to this poll (as reported in Independent)
"The Tories are ahead in the South-east, the Midlands and NORTHERN ENGLAND". So if you accept the poll the 'plummy' image is playing well up north
but playing badly in "Scotland Wales and the South West" (the latter being famous for the huge number of Labour seats it contains)

Of course drawing any conclusions from the smaller samples by area, age group or social class is dangerous and can be misleading as margin of error is higher the smaller the sample.

[Traditional Conservative]

I never thought the "Cameron Effect" was anything more than a temporary blip.

As to how temporary it is we shall have to wait until Labour choose their next leader.

Of course it's quite absurd to write off Brown. He isn't leader yet.

What percentage do you suppose Cameron would have polled the day Howard announced his resignation?

[Peter Hatchet]

A Rogue Poll?

I hope so. We know CR are unreliable, but it's still disappointing nonetheless. Let us hope ICM and Yougov do not demonstrate the same slump - I don't think they will.

However, the good news is that this poll will reassure Gordon he's doing ok and make it even more likely he'll become Labour leader.

There's nothing more likely to guarantee a Conservative victory at the next election than Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.

[Dave Bartlett]

I suspect the next wave of polls from the other newspapers will show the Conservative lead to be intact, or growing.

[Peter Hatchet]

Alistair 07:40

You're inviting ridicule posting such pathetic Daily Mirror propaganda on here.

You're reasoning is as flawed as your shrillness is desperate.

We're happy to debate with you, but please try not to insult our intelligence.

[david]

You pay your money and you picks your poll!
The next GE is still wide open, it could go anyway. I remember the sheer joy among Labour supporters when Maggie won the Tory leadership battle, 'There's no way, the British people will put that woman into Downing street' one Labour activist told me! The future makes fools of us all.

[Reagan Fan]

Alistair poste "Why don't we turn to a rather more authoritative comment?" after Hinchcliffe's comments, and then proceeded to quote The Mirror - LOL!

The man is clearly a joke.

[Scotty]

Alistair, just a little tip if you are posing as a conservative. The Daily Mirror is the "unofficial" voice of the Labour party and as such would be regarded as a joke on ConHom as an authoritative commentator!
Keven McGuire could write an article with the Conservatives on 45% Labour on 25% and still spin it as a disaster for David Cameron.

[Tory T]

"There's nothing more likely to guarantee a Conservative victory at the next election than Gordon Brown as Prime Minister."

Peter Hatchet makes a very good point!

YouGov already did a post-Budget poll, and showed a move to the Tories - 2% swing. (C +1, L -1)

[Graham D'Amiral]

It is polling trends that matter not individual polls whether they happen to be good or bad. So let's wait and see what other pollsters come up with before denouncing this poll or pointing to it as proof the tory recovery has stalled.

[James Maskell]

Ive always wondered about CR. Their last poll's details didnt really seem to justify the large lead they were giving the Tories.

Polls should be taken with a pinch of salt anyway.

[Michael McGowan]

I assume Alistair's surname is Campbell? Next thing he will be telling us that Robert Maxwell was a nice man.

[Richard Woolley]

It's difficult to assess any party's chance of winning the next general election until after the Assembly and local elections this spring and after Gordon Brown's (assuming he becomes PM of course) first 100 days of shock and awe. I think the Conservatives would probably to have to win at least 43 per cent of the vote in the local elections until one can say that they are on track for Government.
At the moment I would say that we are on course for a hung parliament at least but it's still too early to say whether the Conservatives are on course to win an overall majority. Brown must not be understimated as he showed in last week's budget.

[Sean Fear]

There was an "Alistair" who was a prolific contributor to another website a few years ago. "Alistair" was not in fact his real name. He was a former member of the Conservative Party who had made and lost a fortune in the early nineties, and had an embittered loathing of the Conservative Party as a result.

I don't know if this "Alistair" is one and the same, but the style seems pretty familiar.

[Richard]

"TORY leader David Cameron suffered a massive poll blow last night, following Gordon Brown's 2p tax cut in the Budget."

Strange because polls following the budget showed the majority of people didn't believe they had benefitted.

[Yet Another Anon]

They have dropped from 40 per cent to 36 among 25 to 34-year-olds.
Statistically that would actually be slightly better than the overall figures of the main poll in that the Conservative Poll figure overall dropped from 40% to 35%, well within the margin of error even allowed on the wildly optimistic assumptions of how big errors might be that pollsters make, as such I think to infer anything from the change in the figures given specifically for 25 to 34 year olds is totally pointless.

[Chris]

Richard,
The issue with the local elections is that we have so many councillors already, and we are running out of places where we can expect to gain. I've been working in wards where we need to double our vote to even become competitive because we've run out of marginals. There will be some battlegrounds, but I'm not expecting the same level of gains as we had last year.

Now I just have to prepare myself for the inevitable onslaught of cameron-doubters who will say I'm making up stories so as to look ok when the golden boy gets slaughtered by UKIPs superior campaign machine.

[Bill]

Sean

Anyone who experienced the ignorant shambolic nightmare that was conservative economic mismanagement in the late 80s and early 90s has every reason to feel aggrieved. The only worse thing the Tories have done in the last fifty years was conning us into the EU in 1972.

[Sean Fear]

Latest MORI poll Con 41%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 17%.

[Graham Checker]

Re: Sean Fear 13:21

F***ing Yeess!!!!

[Tory T]

Plus minus on the last Mori poll Sean?

[Sean Fear]

Conservative +2%, Labour -2%, compared to January (they didn't publish a February poll).

[Tory T]

Thank you and how does Mori use weighting, obviously they use the certain to vote filter but I cannot recall if they use past vote weighting?

4% swing is excellent.

[Sean Fear]

bill 1215 - well, I suppose I fall into that category. But one just has to get over it. Were it not for the reforms of most of the 1979-97 period, I'm pretty sure that I would be worse off them than I am now, in common with most people.

[Sean Fear]

Tory T - They don't weight by recalled past vote.

[Bill]

Sean

I agree with you entirely. But it illustrates that no one is infallible, a fact which our present leadership in particular should remember.

[Tory T]

Thanks again Sean. In which case surely the poll is rigged against the Conservative interest so the figures are even better than they appear.

Never trust CR - good or bad.

[Gareth]

The new MORI poll is out 41:33 in our favour (of course).

[Editor]

FYI - The MORI survey finished collecting two weeks ago and was, therefore, pre-Budget.

[Tory T]

And of course, the more reliable (than either CR or Mori) YouGov was post budget and showed a move to us.

[Matt Davis]

It's interesting isn't it that the Labour Trolls can now only argue on the basis of what is, in political terms, ancient history and that even after 10 years of Labour Government they have nothing positive to offer. They ought to be able to argue on their recent record but having cocked up everything they have touched in government are reduced to uttering vague nonsensical spin about events of 20 or so years ago. They really are getting desperate and that in itself is as strong an indicator of Conservative sucess as any opinion poll.

[Bill]

I wonder what Matt Davis is referring to regarding "vague nonsensical spin about events of 20 or so years ago".

[James]

To Alistair and his ilk - I don't mind taking this poll at face value, since I'm quit pleased to see us with a 6 point lead in the Midlands and a 3 point lead across the North of England!

[Geoffrey G Brooking]

Six months of Brown and Labour will REALLY collapse.... just ask David Milliband.

[Alistair]

Yesterday we had two closet Thatcherites telling us that MORI polls were worthless.

What a change in attitude today! We see an almost hysterical clutching at straws.

As for Sean Fear's ravings I've never revealed my background to him or anybody else.

Another clueless Thatcherite.

[TomTom]

Polls are a waste of time. Wait another 6 weeks and review ward turnout figures and then look at how the public reacts to the results in opinion polls after August

[Alistair]

Too true Tom Tom.

One wonders whether some of these political anoraks can sleep at night fretting about whether the next "rogue poll" is going to bring bad news.

There's only one poll that counts and they'll have a lot of sleepless nights before that takes place.

So sad.

[Tory T]

Mori and CR are pretty useless. As i have posted, ICM, Populus and YouGov are the big three.

All have shown substantial moves to us and increases on our lead in their most recent polls.

[Graham D'Amiral]

latest mori poll,

con 41%
lab 33%
LD 17%
Scotish/Welsh nationalists 3%
Greens 3%
UKIP 1%
others 2%

[Cllr Andrew Landriani]

Alistair and Graham D'Amiral are right. Evidence is showing on the doorstep that when people think about the choice they come over to us. The LibDems are sinking like the Bismarck - and they know it!

3rd May will be the irrefutable poll result.

[Callum Wood]

1) The only poll to trust is YouGov - they predicted the general election results to within ±0.5% of the actual result.

2) I think that if Cameron doesnt hit the refresh button every so often (to coin a phrase) then the polls will slip. He says we're "halfway up the mountain" - so that means the hardest bit is yet to come.