The Tory improvement is historically modest... but probably firmer

I heard Peter Kellner of YouGov on Radio 4's World This Weekend earlier and he contended that today's Tory YouGov poll lead of 6% was quite modest given that we were in the middle of a parliament.  I happen to agree that the Conservative advantage (9% in the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls) is a little modest but only because of the nature of Labour's difficulties - not because of the stage of the parliament.  The days of governments making unpopular decisions at the start of parliaments before rolling out the goodies closer to elections are largely gone.  Labour works the media on a daily basis and Brown has been bribing voters with taxpayers' money and Tony Blair has been trumpeting tough-on-crime measures ever since they were elected and re-elected.  Voters have probably never been more suspicious of politicians and big swings are unlikely to greet any close-to-election announcements.  The Conservative Party's opinion poll improvement has been more modest than might have been expected ten or twenty years ago but it is unlikely to go down quickly either.  Voters, who now consume little political media, take longer to reassess political parties and movements are now going to be more gradual.  I expect Gordon Brown's installation as Labour leader to improve Labour's position (at least for a little while during a honeymoon period of media limelight) but it will be a few percentage points of gain - certainly not much more than 5% unless he has something very dramatic up his sleeve.

I also believe that Mr Kellner was wrong to imply that the 5%, 6% and 7% that YouGov records for UKIP and BNP is sourced from the disaffected right of the Conservative Party.  My guess is that much of the BNP vote, in particular, comes straight from the Labour-voting heartlands.

Comments

[Tory T]

YouGov is the only pollster that records noticeable share for ukip; this is seen neither in any other pollster, nor at the actual polls, where their recent results have been truly risible (8 votes in Nuneaton to the English Democrats' 75). So I can't take them seriously on that until ICM, Populus, even CR start unearthing some ukip votes. Or they show up in a real poll.

[A H Matlock]

As Peter Golds mentioned in relation to this subject on politicalbetting.com earlier, it is odd that the BBC never mentions that Peter Kellner's wife, Baroness Ashton, is a Government Minister.

[ballotboy]

Some votes will come from Lab, but many will come from Con if historical patterns are followed. Fed up Labour voters stay at home rather than vote BNP.

[ballotboy]

"it is odd that the BBC never mentions that Peter Kellner's wife, Baroness Ashton, is a Government Minister"

Come on - Kellner would not stoop that low and I have heard him by quite critical of Labour and praise the Tories.

[Editor]

I certainly do not question Peter Kellner's integrity - only on this, occasion, two of his arguments.

[A H Matlock]

I made no accusation, Ballotboy. But in the interest of full disclosure, particularly in the case of someone whose job it is to opine dispassionately on the state of the parties, one might expect this to be mentioned.

[Editor]

PS Good to have you back again Alastair.

[Alex Forsyth]

UKIP votes showed up in a "real poll" called the European elections not so very long ago, but some people seem to have the memory of goldfish.

Given UKIP's current difficulties I can see some of those votes being switched to the BNP. Given that these are people heavily motivated by factors such at the EU and immigration it's hardly likely they are going to vote for Cameron.

I personally know three well-established long-standing Tories, all educated, relatively wealthy, professional people, who tell me that they intend to vote BNP. Their main motivation would seem to be total distaste for the Cameron ethos.

Cameron is fortunate indeed that the BNP has a reputation for thuggery, jackboots etc or he could face a mass exodus.

[A H Matlock]

Thank you, Tim.

[Lord Cashcroft]

"start unearthing some ukip votes. Or they show up in a real poll"
Northern Ireland anyone?

[ToMTom]

WEll we do know that BNP will do better than UKIP in local elections in any event - so May should be instructive

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

The improvement is "historically modest" because polling in the mid-eighties and the mid-nineties was a much less refined art.

[A H Matlock]

Indeed, Iain. And Peter Kellner would know that as well as anybody.

[Editor]

Thanks Iain - I hadn't thought of the polling methodology angle.

My guess was that voters are slower to be persuaded and less likely to notice changed policies/ approaches because so many can now tune out of political news.

[Mark Fulford]

"Cameron is fortunate indeed that the BNP has a reputation for thuggery, jackboots etc or he could face a mass exodus. "

It's more their reputation for racism that worries me.

[malcolm]

Ballotboy, you're wrong about the BNP and Labour voters. All the areas that the BNP do best in are Labour heartlands. The evidence seems to be that some voters switch from Labour straight to the BNP. One of the reasons they do this in my opinion is that none of the other political parties (including the Conservative party)have worked out how to fight them effectively. For most it's just a case of calling them racist fascists etc which is not enough.Parties where the BNP do well have to get involved with the 'pavement politics' which the BNP sometimes excel at and also criticise their economic policies which in the global marketplace are risible and would if enacted destroy the economic health of our country.
Why does it not suprise me that 'Alex Forsyth' appears to approve of people voting for the BNP? .What a nice man.

[matt wright]

I agree with the Editor on this. It seems to me that there are a number of factors at work that may make it less likely that any party would show big poll leads:
1) polling is more accurate
2) people are more disillusioned with all parties
3) a growing group are disengaged from political discourse
4) there is no massive issue that seriously threatens ordinary voters

Matt

[Dave Bartlett]

The interviewer sounded like she wanted to put Mr Maude into the Lion enclosure at the local zoo.

[Yet Another Anon]

I don't expect there to be any immediate change at all when Gordon Brown takes charge (Goven that he is pretty much already in charge and has been running most of Labour's domestic policy since 1997) - it will be a continuity and reactions to any changes will come later as any actual. differences become clear.

[ballotboy]

"Ballotboy, you're wrong about the BNP and Labour voters. All the areas that the BNP do best in are Labour heartlands. The evidence seems to be that some voters switch from Labour straight to the BNP."

But they would vote Tory normally - they are the old working-class Tories who have now gone BNP.

[Ben Redsell]

Anecdotally the only people I have found who admit to wanting to vote BNP (thankfully we have not had many candidates around here) have all told me that if they couldn't vote BNP they would vote for a different protest party - Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP etc. Many are voting for them because of their old style socialist economic policies and these people are Old Labour voters.

The way to beat the BNP is simple hard work and reminding people of their record - they are usually fairly lazy councillors so I'm told by people who have such things on their councils! When we have had candidates the effect has simply been to push up turnout. Everyone piles in and works really hard. They win not because the electorate has suddenly turned racist but because they use the same by-election style campaigns that the Lib Dems use so effectively.

[kingbongo]

ballotboy, at least a third of tory votes have always come from the working class. In fact during most of the nineties it was much higher. This is way more people than are turning to the BNP.

Labour have abandoned the white working class and some of them are turning to the BNP because it has socialist economic thinking allied to racist authoritarianism.

If you are a Labour supporter and honestly believe only 'tory' working class people are voting BNP in Labour's heartlands you are deluded beyond reason. Fortunately this Ostrich attitude is not shared by more senior Labour figures who at least accept the problem exists even if they don't know what to do about it.

[Scotty]

I think that Tim's assessment regarding the Conservatives poll ratings are spot on.
I would have added the point already made by Cllr Iain Lindley about the much improved polling methodology used now.
The only unknown is how Gordon Brown will be greeted when he is installed as PM, I am not convinced he will get much of a poll boost. He might make some Labour voters more inclined to vote, but I think that after 10 years as chancellor many of the electorate will have already made their minds up. Without the added factor of being a real change I can't see where the expected honeymoon bounce is going to come from.

[Opinicus]

The reason that there is little difference in the polls is that the electorate (that bit that can keep awake discussing politics) has the greatest difficulty in telling the Parties apart.

Who do you vote for if
You want lower taxes
You want meaningful reform of the NHS
You want good state schools and no dumbing down
You want Police conentrating on criminals not motorists
You want lower immigration
You want hanging
You want politicians who tell the truth without spin.

And if you can't have what you want why lend legitimacy to the corruption and incompetence that passes for British public life these days?

Camerons strategy has been to decontaminate the Conservative brand and this has affected the few remaining floating voters between the solid core voters who still vote. To get the swings of the 80s you need the electorate (the turnout) of the 80s. Those missing 15-20% of the electorate are turned off politics. Unless they are given something worth voting for they will continue not to vote.

[Scotty]

"Those missing 15-20% of the electorate are turned off politics. Unless they are given something worth voting for they will continue not to vote."
Jonathan, I get annoyed at this argument that the electorate need something to vote for. In the present political climate with a far wider choice of candidates representing various opinions they have plenty of choice. They choose/can't be bothered to vote, it is that simple and it's about time that people started putting the blame where it belongs.
It might just motivate a few of them to take that few minutes to help decide who governs us.
As for the rest us we have ended up with a dumbing down of voting methods which has increased fraud and makes a mockery of our democracy.

[Yet Another Anon]

To get the swings of the 80s you need the electorate (the turnout) of the 80s.
The Conservative & National Government in the 1930's managed to get quite a sizeable shift in percentage vote and seats towards it without much in the way of turnout. One parties percentage vote can just as easily go up through apathy from other parties supporters as from enthusiasm from their own, so it doesn't neccessarily follow.

[TomTom]

appears to approve of people voting

Approve ? What is this ? You should "approve" of the way someone votes ? How strange and Orwellian.

One Man One Vote is about one voter's personal choice and does not require "Approval". If politicians want to claim "personal" and "private" in the context of their strange and exotic behaviours, then they should not dare to "approve" of voters' choices which are personal and private

[Alex Forsyth]

They choose/can't be bothered to vote, it is that simple and it's about time that people started putting the blame where it belongs.

Quite so

And the blame can be put firmly on the architects of today's Tweedledum/tweedledee non-political politics. Starting with the cynical hypocrites who created New Labour and moving on to those who are busy creting Bluelabour.

If it weren't for the personal excellence of my Conservative MP I probably wouldnt bother to vote either. I do not regard the BNP as a acceptable alternative or UKIP as a credible alterntive, so if the local Tory were a Cameron clone I would be totally deprived of voting choice.

[matt wright]

This argument that people aren't voting because parties aren't different enough from each other is far too simplistic. I think to some degree there has been a greater concensus which isn't always bad as we know extremes can create serious problems which it can take years to resolve. It cannot be bad that most people are broadly agreed that capitalism creates wealth but that it also has faults that we need to try and moderate in the interests of keeping society sound. As we do not have the situations we had before of 3 day weeks and constant strikes linked with ideologically entrenched positions, it is perhaps not suprising that some voters are not massively motivated to go to the polling station. I think there is also another growing factor which can be generally bracketed as "social disconnection". In partcular when canvassing I come across a section of the public who use the "you're all the same, no point" argument as an excuse to cover for the fact that they can't be bothered to vote or engage in their community,

Matt