Cameron's shadow cabinet A-team

We have now had three months of ConservativeHome.com member ratings of the shadow cabinet and ten names are consistently emerging with net satisfaction ratings of 20% or more: DAVID DAVIS, ALAN DUNCAN, LIAM FOX, CHRIS GRAYLING, WILLIAM HAGUE, ANDREW LANSLEY, GEORGE OSBORNE, CAROLINE SPELMAN, TOM STRATHCLYDE and DAVID WILLETTS.  The last three months' ratings are summarised in the chart above (click to enlarge).  There has only been one significant movement and that has been David Mundell's decline from +2% at the end of December to -13% now (the lowest net rating recorded in the ConservativeHome series for any individual).

David Cameron's own ratings remain steady (see graph below).  29% of members are very satisfied with the Tory leader and 41% fairly satisfied.  16% are fairly dissatisfied and 13% very dissatisfied.  In January 2006 - shortly after his election - 45% were very satisfied and 37% fairly satisfied.  10% were fairly dissatisfied and 6% very dissatisfied.

77% think it likely that David Cameron will be Prime Minister after the next General Election.  This is exactly the same percentage as January 2006.

69% think the Tory party is on the right course - 25% think it on the wrong track. 

Comments

[HW]

I'm satisfied with Cameron at the moment. It's way way too early to get definite promises of tax cuts or any of the things most readers of this blog want out of life at this stage.

Keeping quiet whilst Labour makes a belated attempt to kneecap Brown and the ensuing s**tstorm is probably the right thing to do.

[Josh]

I agree that David Davis should have such high ratings. He is a legend. That doesn't mean he would have been the best leader, but in the role he's in at the moment, he is a legend.

I'm surprised Teresa May is so poorly rated though.

[malcolm]

Many respondents must be much better informed than I am as when I complete I feel forced to write 'don't know' against many of the names. Could those people who have either said they have a very postive or negative view of Theresa Villiers or Oliver Letwin please tell me why. I genuinely have heard next to nothing about either in the last 6 months.

[dog biter]

Could Michael Gove have a bit more media training please? He really wasn't very good up against Yvette Cooper on Radio 4 this morning.

[dog biter]

Also, I can't think what Andrew Lansley is doing on this list. When it comes to his TV performances he must rank as the dullest politician on TV in a long time. Can't somebody tell him to halve what he says and not waffle on in that dreary, estuary accent that is so reminiscent of a council highways officer.

[David Cooper]

I expect that Theresa May is going to struggle for evermore to win any support from rank and file members after her "nasty party" comment while she was in the role of party chairman. Time for a gracious stepping down?

[Editor]

Many of the ratings, Malcolm, are based on high 'don't know' ratings.

[John Coles]

David Cooper is right - that dreadful woman should leave the stage. Theresa May has done near-mortal damage to the Conservative party

[Curly]

"77% think it likely that David Cameron will be Prime Minister after the next General Election. This is exactly the same percentage as January 2006."

I wonder if things would change much if Miliband were elected leader of the Labour Party, what to other posters think?

[Londoner]

Theresa May has been marked down by me recently because of her promotion of a wholly or near wholly elected House of Lords, one of the few policy areas that as Shadow Leader of the House she deals with. She seems to have failed to notice that the Upper House works better than the Lower one, and has been taking a deeply unConservative line (albeit not alone in that, alas).

Theresa Villiers is being marked down, I would think, precisely because of her lack of visibility. It was quite striking, for instance, on the budget last weak that Alan Duncan was put up on Newsnight against the Chief Secretary rather than Theresa (and he did very well, admittedly against a very week performance from Tims). Can anyone say whether she did any interviews elsewhere? I think she did a weak interview soon after her appointment a year ago and seems to have been protected since. She is very capable, and was a very popular, effective and articulate MEP for London but was overpromoted into a sensitive job after only having been in the House for 6 months. She needs to be moved to somewhere where she can get Commons and media experience without the perils of coping with the whole public expenditure policy.

I agree that Lansley's high rating is surprising, but I suppose that if we have nothing distinctive to say on Health, it's just as well to say it very boringly in an earnest tone and hope people like the mood music. Having nothing to say seems to be working quite well. But I'm surprised that it floats people's boats on here.

On Oliver Letwin, I think he is on the media quite often and also people can have a view on whether the policy review process is well conceived. I can think of no-one better equipped to talk intelligently and articulately as Head of Policy when, for understandable reasons, there are still so few policies to talk about. But I suspect Oliver is a polarising figure within the Party - people either hugely like him or find him a "foot in mouth" waste of space. Although I do not agree with everything he is doing (or not doing), I am in the former camp; and one should not underestimate the appeal of his evident reasonableness, intelligence and altruism to the metropolitan liberal professionals that are one important category we need to win back. Also note how he sat next to Cameron during the budget and you can be sure that he was as instrumental as Osborne in helping with the necessary instant analysis.

[rasher]

No surprise to us in Scotland that David Mundell is ranked so poorly following his antics and desperately bad performance.

[Frank McGarry]

Maude and May have consistantly negative ratings and will surely be shuffled back on to the back benches, come shadow cabinet re-shuffle time. The sooner the better, both for the Party's image and for members morale.

[Carola Godman Law]

It is disappointing to see Peter Ainsworth scoring so low. He does not get much exposure but he is very effective and knowledgeable when he does. We in the farming world appreciate his support and grasp of what is important. He will be a very good Minister unlike David Milliband who is very good at saying very little but agreeing with everyone and getting lots of good photo opportunities.

[savila60]

Isn't Francis Maude the Conservative Party's Peter Mandelson, a behind-the-scenes fixer? I agree with Frank, but unfortunately such individuals can prove rather hard to dislodge.

[Mark Fulford]

"Could those people who have either said they have a very postive or negative view of Theresa Villiers or Oliver Letwin please tell me why. I genuinely have heard next to nothing about either in the last 6 months."

Malcolm, like you I didn’t know anything about what Theresa Villiers has been up to and whether to approve of her or not. Prompted by your question I decided that her work would be the topic of my lunchtime reading.

Theresa is, in case you didn’t know, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. It’s not a limelight position so one fair way of seeing how well she’s doing is to compare her to the man she’s shadowing: Stephen Timms. She’s hasn’t got his good looks, but I’m afraid that’s where the favourable comparison ends.

Theresa Villiers is a lawyer (please, haven't we got enough lawyers in Parliament?) so, while she may have a fine mind, it’s not immediately obvious that she has the skills for a Treasury job. The onus is even more on her to prove that her job is not just a title or stepping-stone, but a role she’s both suited to and interested in. I’m not satisfied that she’s done this. I haven’t been able to find any Treasury-related speeches or articles from her, and Parliamentary questions such as "how much was spent by his Department on (a) gas and (b) electricity in 2004–05?" are too frequent and just don’t make the grade.

By contrast, Stephen Timms is a mathematician. Perhaps because he is comfortable in his job, he has been a relatively prolific speechmaker, having made 24 external speeches on his subject in the 11 months in his job. He also doesn’t seem to have been caused any problems by the questions he’s been asked by Barbara.

Apologies to Barbara, I started hoping that I could give you all a reason to give her a "satisfied" next month. But in the contest Barbara v Stephen, I'm afraid he seems to be monstering her (unfortunately literally). I hope that we see something more convincing from her soon.

[Simon Chapman]

Mark, for some reason your thoughts started drifting from Theresa to "Barabara Villiers", who used to be a very prolific contributor to CH.

[Tom Bron]

The shadow cabinet needs an overhaul as there is too much of a burden on Cameron. If it wasn't for him, we'd still be miles behind in the polls and the whole Tory team would look very grey and dull (Lansley, Ainsworth, even Davis) or very lightweight (Osborne, Villiers, etc).

At least two or three young 'uns should be injected into high-visibility shadow cabinet jobs this summer. Gove is the outstanding candidate for me, as the media love him and he has a brain. He is also that rare thing: a moderniser who is relatively popular with the base. Vaizey is a good communicator, but not especially diligent. He may be a good replacement for Swire at DCMS.

Herbert is another option, maybe, but strangely I have never seen him perform on tv so can't be too sure. Greg Clark at Work and Pensions would be interesting.

[malcolm]

Thank you for your efforts Mark.Too many of the Shadow Cabinet have kept far too low a profile at this time. I wondered whether it was because their sterling work was simply not being reported by the media or was it a case of there being very little to report.

[Frank Upton]

The comments posted on this site are so predictable. Traditionalist/tax cutter/right winger = GOOD. Moderniser/centrist = BAD. Guess what everybody? Being really right wing lost us the last two elections. Moving to the middle ground will win us the next election. And the obsession with Teresa May and the "nasty party" speech is remarkable - that speech made the case for Cameron's strategy many years before he did. She should be praised for it, not hated.

[iwroe]

I don't get the Net Satisfaction rating series on your Cameron chart. Surely if 30% of respondents are dissatisfied with Cameron and 70% are satisfied, 70% is the net satisfied., i.e. 100%-30%=70%. You're taking the 30% off again to arrive at a net satisfied of 40%.

[Alex]

Frank Upton - spot on. These ratings are always going to be of limited value as they are less determined by the actual performance of shadow cabinet members than by how right wing and orthodox they are perceived to be. Quite what Hague, Strathclyde and Fox have done to deserve their ratings is beyond me.

[Tanuki]

Frank Upton @15:35 - "...Guess what everybody? Being really right wing lost us the last two elections. Moving to the middle ground will win us the next election...."

But honestly, what is the point of winning an election (under a Conservative flag) by moving to the left if the actual result is that we end up with policies that are some sort of combine-the-worst-aspects-of-the-LibDems-and-NuLab mashup?

I want to see a libertarian, radically capitalist alternative to the current government. Tax-cuts. Deregulation. Taking an axe to the dead-wood of public services. The current Cameron offerings are distinctly unappealing.

[Sean Fear]

I doubt if moving even closer to Labour in 2001 and 2005 than we were would have assisted us materially.

[Disraeli]

It is good to see Caroline Spelman getting consistently good ratings in the poll. She has done a good job in what can be a challenging position - coming over as a likeable, talented media performer who is not a stereotypical Tory. She has also done well in getting the Government to back down on council tax evaluation.

I have to agree with the comments about David Davis. He continues to do a first class job as Shadow Home Secretary.

For DC himself it is a case of keep up the good work. Thanks to his modernising leadership now is a good time to be a Tory.

[Daniel VA]

"Mark, for some reason your thoughts started drifting from Theresa to "Barabara Villiers", who used to be a very prolific contributor to CH."

The mind boggles at the thought of the Duchess as Shadow Chief Secretary, stridently heckling both Gordon Brown and George Osborne during Treasury Questions, brandishing her stilettoes when reprimanded by the Speaker and threatening to chin Vince Cable...

[Daniel VA]

And speaking of former prolific contributors to ConservativeHome, welcome back 'Disraeli', assuming you are the same person who used to post under that name!

Your thoughtful, well-reasoned contributions are much-missed around here.

[Mark Fulford]

Mark, for some reason your thoughts started drifting from Theresa to "Barabara Villiers", who used to be a very prolific contributor to CH.

LOL, the Duchess has a hold over me even now! I hope my slip didn't detract too much from what I was trying to say...

[Ted]

DVA - if you look at pic of Theresa on Conservatives.com and the portrait of Barbara by Wright in the National Portrait Gallery there is a resemblance.
The Duchess always used to say we would be surprised if we found out who she really was.....

[Michael McGowan]

Tanuki, the point of moving to the left is to form a left-wing coalition with the Lib Dems so that David Cameron and friends get jobs, power and the spoils of office. So what if we get a continuation of New Labour's authoritarian and expensive failures? Surely you are not naive enough to think that elections are about picking the best Government?

[Patsy Sergeant]

I quite agree with other people, I think it is about time that Theresa May is eased sideways to the back benches, that b..... tactless phrase of hers will never go away, and if she is interviewed on the 'box' during the local elections, the yapping journalists will be sure to trot out the old mantra again, from their point of view it is just too good to let go.

I think that Andrew Lansley does quite well in interviews, he is very patient and pleasant, even when being barked at by the pug dog Andrew Rawnsley!

[James Maskell]

On the "dont know" /very dissatisfied question, in those cases I went for very dissatisfied. If they cant get the media attention for their respective areas and cant even give the impression of doing their job, then Im not particularly satisfied about it...

[Disraeli]

Many thanks Daniel VA. I'll hopefully be posting more regularly around here.

Conservative fortunes are, thankfully, on the rise again. I do think that some people forget that we can do nothing as a political party if we are not in Government. The past ten years have shown how frustrating it is to be in opposition - watching on as the Government makes some pretty awful decisions.

[Janis]

So, its just me then! I loathe "Dave",can't find anything positive to say about him.Even William Hague who I so admired has gone down in my estimation.
I despair!

[Bill]

Whenever she is on the box Theresa May makes me squirm which may be simply due to my memories of her stupid "nasty" remark. David Davis continues to be good. Caroline Spelman talks sense. You might as well forget about Hague and squeaky. Bring back Mercer. On a wider point Tory MPs generally appear to either 1) have nothing or little to say or 2) if they do it is barkingly irrelevant to the life and experience of ordinary people. Is this deliberate? Have they been told to keep their mouths shut or do they have nothing to say except what is drummed into them.

[Londoner]

Having criticised Theresa Villiers earlier on this thread, it is only fair to record that by chance I saw her replying to the budget debate on the Parliament channel last night and she gave a spirited performance. True, there was one hesitation when Tims asked her if she endorsed the Govt's expenditure plans, which might have been handled more confidently by someone more experienced, but generally she had prepared well and stood up forcefully in a reasonably full House, with Brown etc glowering at her from the Govt front bench.

It rather shows that some spokesmen may be doing a good job in Parliament even if they are not very visible in the media. But I still think Teresa V should be made more visible and that another job might enable her to shine more; whilst giving the delicate job of explaining our spending policies to someone more experienced. Perhaps a job swop with Andrew Mitchell, as Theresa's EU experience would be a plus in Overseas Development.

[LaidBack]

Janis, don't worry. I'm not keen on slippery PR Executive, Dave either. So there's two of us. I thought I was supposed to vote for a party because it had values which echoed my own. Now we seem to be told, if you're Conservative, this is what you believe in now, get a grip! I do however, think the shadow cabinet gives us hope, although I hate the way they all spout the same Dave soundbites. I'm just hoping they're giving him a hard time behind the scenes. I feel sure that most of them don't believe in his approach, or it would represent the most hypocritical U turn in history. Frankly, I don't know how they all sleep at night.

[Rog]

Janis and LaidBack - I'll join you.

Looking at the satisfaction graph, is it only me that can see a couple of clear trends?

Satisfaction with Dave: steadily DOWN.
Dissatisfaction with Dave: steadily UP.

There's no other way to read it.

[DonG]

My feelings too Janis - that makes four. I do not know what any of these politicians really believes.

[Stewart]

Many of the shadow cabinet I know nothing about.

Theresa May will forever be tainted by the Nasty comment- and must be removed from the cabinet forthwith. Francis Maude likewise is considered to be the one guilty for undermining IDS- for that disloyalty he must go to the back benches.

DC is our leader and was elected by an overwhelming majority. For that reason - of Party loyalty- I have no choice but to support him.

There is however a limit to which loyal party members will go. You do not win elections by ingratiating yourself with trendy left wing guardian reading journalists while driving the hard working and formerly loyal party workers on the ground away in despair.

If DC wants to boost his standing in the party at one stroke, get rid of Maude and May- now.