Tory MPs told that support is at 36% to 39%

Interesting report in today's Yorkshire Post from their Political Editor Simon McGee:

"It emerged last night that Tory MPs and senior officials were summoned to Conservative headquarters earlier this week for a confidential briefing with their leader on the party's seven new aims for 2007.  Among them was an instruction for MPs to go back to their constituencies and take part in more social projects, like helping to paint or renovate local parish halls.

Multi-millionaire deputy party chairman Lord Ashcroft – who is understood to have already begun loosening his purse-strings for Tory candidates in some key marginals – also delivered a presentation telling MPs to take heart from his research which found party support was reliably in the 36 to 39 per cent range.  Any poll results outside that range should be considered "rogue" and ignored, he said.

Mr Cameron went on to outline the aims – which were later handed out to MPs on laminated wallet-sized cards, to make sure they did not forget.  Number Two was "to increase our support in the North of England", underneath "to win the 2007 local elections in England and meet our goals in Scotland and Wales".  Other aims were "to practise what we preach", which Mr Cameron explained as not only advocating social responsibility but taking direct participation in social action programmes, and "to align the party's perceived priorities with people's priorities".

MPs who attended told the Yorkshire Post that it was an upbeat, morale-boosting gathering.  But there was some concern that the aims were hardly ambitious: the party cannot fail to "win" this year's local elections in England because it already has the most councillors in England, and the party's "goals" in Scotland and Wales are presumably fairly modest."

More here.

ConservativeHome also understands that Conservative MPs were told not to worry about UKIP.  Only 1.5% of Tory voters were tempted to vote for Mr Farage's party, Lord Ashcroft claimed.

These are the seven aims btw:

"Our aims are quantifiable – we will be able to measure and track our success and progress:

1. To win the 2007 local elections in England and meet our goals in Scotland and Wales.  This means concentrating messages and local campaigns on NHS, Vote Blue – Go Green and to take on the Lib Dems
2. To increase our support in the North of England. (e.g. establishment of Northern Board etc)
3. To align the Party's perceived priorities with people's priorities.  This means focusing on issues that really matter to people – NHS, Education, Crime.
4. To increase support for the party among those aged 18-34.  (At the last General Election we polled 28% among 18-24 year olds; and only 27% among 25-34 year olds.  So we have to do much more.  One way is to focus on issues that matter to this age group – childcare, environment, affordable housing, global poverty.
5. To build a campaign machine so we are ready for the General Election. Our Association teams and PPCs are crucial in making this a reality locally.
6. Increase our membership
7. To practice what we preach.  Social Action programmes, greener and more environmentally friendly Association offices, recycling etc."

Comments

[vicst]

Uh huh, and Cameron is the most popular thing since sliced bread...

Ashcroft hates Bridges because Bridges is a spy for Salisbury (who tried to knife Ashcroft when Treasurer). Eustice hates Hilton and will therefore be fired/layered. Nobody (still) is in charge of HQ. Nobody apart from Hilton really believes the "strategy" is working.

[Valedictoryan]

Uh huh, the daily lunchtime trolling from our new "conservatives.com" friend.

[Scotty]

"Only 1.5% of Tory voters were tempted to vote for Mr Farage's party, Lord Ashcroft claimed."
Well I think that claim has been vindicated in both the polls and in recent council by elections.
The only people who perceive a UKIP threat to the conservatives are the Telegraph, Cornerstone group, Conhom and of course UKIP. Funnily enough they all share an agenda/strategy which desperately needs to talk up this unfounded threat before the May elections blow their argument out of the water, and UKIP into obscurity.

[Sean Fear]

Would that unhappy Conservatives were prepared to vote UKIP. The result from the Nunteaton by-election, and several others, indicates that unhappy Conservatives are now prepared to vote BNP.

[malcolm]

I can just imagine some of the repetitive points that this thread is going to generate from the usual suspects but it doesn't sound very inspiring does it?

[Umbrella man]

What by-election Sean?

[Chevalier de la Foi]

Nuneaton, Bede. BNP close second with 546 votes. UKIP (various trolls please take note) LAST with 8 votes. How many signatures do you need to get nominated?

[Thatcherite]

MPs should be focusing on their Parliamentary duties, e.g. researching and scrutinising legislation, consulting local treachers, business etc. They are not free painters and decorators for local churches. Churchill would be appalled.

[James Cox]

Churchill would also be 133 years old.

[Richard Carey]

They are not free painters and decorators for local churches. Churchill would be appalled.

And dead. Good thing he's not standing as a candidate in the May elections then, isn't it?...

[Michael McGowan]

Churchill spent his years in opposition building a brick wall at Chartwell so maybe he would approve...

[Eveleigh]

It is a well known fact that Churchill spent many happy hours and holidays with a paintbrush in his hand!

[Gospel of Enoch]

"To align the Party's perceived priorities with people's priorities. This means focusing on issues that really matter to people – NHS, Education, Crime."

Post-office closures, anyone? Oops, no, sorry, that's EU directives, again, and you lot can't say BOO to a ghost let alone a potential voter :-)

[Tory T]

Chevalier, it took ten people to sign the ukip nomination form. Result? Eight actual votes. They really know how to whip up support!

English Dems got 75 votes, in contrast.

[David Robbins]

Bede is in Bedworth, not Nuneaton. Same council, very different town.

[Simon Mallett]

I think the party should be highlighting what Conservaties already do in their local communities. Social action is not a recent invention for Conservatives but is part and parcel of being a Conservative.

Perhaps the next party conference could have a session highlghting the work done by local Conservatives - with PPCs and others outlining what work they have been doing (preferably for years) and Conservative councillors explaining how they have implemented change locally. It's about time we trumpeted our community work more and showpieced the work of our activists and councllors not just the action of the parliamentary party.

If we had doe it more in the past we would not have been dispelling current myths about the party.

[Geoff]

"Only 1.5% of Tory voters were tempted to vote for Mr Farage's party, Lord Ashcroft claimed."

Well I think that claim has been vindicated in both the polls and in recent council by elections.

This is a meaningless statistic because the electorate are becoming less partisan and more inclined towards ticket-splitting. The electorate (oh good grief, I am likely to stir up the UKIP trolls here - sorry) are generally convinced that Parliament is the ultimate power so vote for us at a General Election but use council and Euro-elections to kick us thinking that it makes no ultimate harm.

If the question was 'vote UKIP at General election' then I could believe this number. At other elections it may be substantially more for them from our same core vote.

[Geoff]

It's about time we trumpeted our community work more and showpieced the work of our activists and councllors not just the action of the parliamentary party.

Sorry but have to slightly challenge that. I enjoy my efforts through Round Table and other clubs but all of them are firmly non-political. Many of us put a lot of time into our local community by fundraising, practical help etc etc but the private organisations which we do it through would not want to be associated with any political party.

I know that isn't your exact point and I agree that high profile charity work under the banner of the Party is a good publicity tool as well as a great thing to do as well. It's just that when I do it as part of a quiet team it is our private way of putting something back - not for an election leaflet or a press release.

Two posts in a row on the same thread. Tim will shoot me.

[Geoff]

Just thought of the good example of becoming a School Governor - which is a great chance for an activist to put something back on an individual basis without my concerns above.

With things like that borne in mind, Simon, your post is a lot more powerful.

Three posts in a row. I'm toast.

[thatcherite]

The Conservatives get thrashed, by nearly 2 to 1, by the BNP in a council by-election in a key target seat. All Tory T can comment on is the BNP. Get real!

[thatcherite]

The last post should read "All Tory T can comment on is UKIP". UKIP, I hear, put up a paper candidate only and did no campaigning. Not good!

[Gospel of Enoch]

Wonderful idea, Geoff! Tory School Governors can help implement the EUs latest wizard wheeze "German Education Minister Annette Schavan said: "National Curricula should not describe what is to be taught but the objectives and outcomes intended. These should be based on an EU framework."

[Alex Swanson]

I'm a little lost as to how "increase our membership" is meant to work. As a lapsed member I've gained the clear impression that Dave and his team don't actually like the members much, there's too much attachment to extremist ideas like low taxation or small government.

Please somebody feel free to explain why I'm wrong.

[Gospel of Enoch]

I thinks he means you could aim for 1000 new "low tax and small govt." members, or 17000 defecters from Phony-Tony...

[Scotty]

"As a lapsed member I've gained the clear impression that Dave and his team don't actually like the members much, there's too much attachment to extremist ideas like low taxation or small government."
The impression I get is that "you" let your membership lapse because "you" don't like Dave and his team.
You can please yourself, whereas Dave has a slightly wider group which he needs to appeal too and this requires a balanced approach between the conservative party and the wider UK electorate.
I know it has become unfashionable in recent times, but I remember when the conservative party thought its job was to win a mandate to govern the WHOLE country not just the conservative party.

[TomTom]

Presumably 18-34 year olds could be attracted by plans to bring house prices down to some relationship with incomes ?

There is a scissors-effect for people nowadays with rental properties being leased to NASS for asylum-seekers and the influx of Poles and Slovaks on the other.

House prices have risen considerably in the North of England and are way out of kilter with average incomes. When £200.000 apartments in Leeds are considered economy; and £500.000 to £1 million are not unusual people with incomes of £10.000 wonder how they will ever get anyplace to live.

Meanwhile they are told how good it would e if they paid to drive to work, paid more for petrol, paid more to fly on holiday, paid more for their child's bus-pass at £25/month it can get very expensive for lower income households with 3 children allocated to distant schools

[Freedom]

BNP campaigners from Leicestershire and Warwickshire last night left the political establishment of the south Midlands reeling by coming from nowhere to win more votes than the Tories, LibDems and UKIP combined.

The by-election was in the Bede ward of Bedworth, a small and very typical English town between Coventry and Nuneaton. A first rate BNP campaign, centred around a four sweep canvass and full reknock, turned the contest into a two-horse race between the local representative of the Labour regime and the BNP - the only real opposition.

The result is not merely a testament to the effectiveness of the BNP election machine, it also provides a potent snapshot of the public attitude to the Establishment-approved 'opposition' parties, and this is confirmed by the result of another by-election yesterday - in a heavily 'enriched' area of Croydon which it clearly wasn't even worth our while contesting. Here are the two sets of results:

Bedworth (near Coventry):
Labour 658
BNP 546
Tory 301
LibDem 119
English Dem 75
Save NHS 43
UKIP 8 (eight!)
(BNP 31%, UKIP 0.45%)

Croydon:
Labour 1683
Tory 617
Green 240
LibDem 126
UKIP 40
Monster 15
(UKIP 1.5%)

Cameron's Tories should at this stage of the electoral cycle be taking almost every by-election seat in the country, but are dead in the water as their traditional voters give up on their pinko leader and his Blairlite New Conservative project.

Ming's LibDems are being squeezed by Cameron moving onto their little patch of turf, and crippled by Sir Menzies who at the age of 66 is coming close to the end of his Commons career.

Joke status

UKIP have collapsed to joke candidate status. All the Brussels Broadcasting Corporation hype of Nigel Farage is having no impact - unless it's negative on account of showing anti-System voters that UKIP is a licenced opposition party going nowhere.

UKIP's local council seat total (made up almost entirely of defectors elected as Tories or Independents) is going to be decimated come May. How much longer will political commentators in the news media continue to put their reputations as 'experts' on the line by repeating the lie that UKIP is picking up Conservative votes as a result of Cameron's leftward lurch?

Yes, that lurch is losing the Tories votes, but they are coming to the BNP. Far from gaining votes from the Cameroons, UKIP at present can't even get support from its own voters.

It's a shame to see their good-hearted, genuinely patriotic rank-and-file activists wasting their time while the Eurocrats fasten more and more chains around our national freedom, but we've welcomed a number of them into our ranks in recent weeks.

More are now in the pipeline as a result of dismay within UKIP over Nigel Farage's crude attempt to 'bounce' the membership into accepting a name change to the Independence Party. The damage this has caused to morale is now being compounded as word spreads through the UKIP grapevine that the Electoral Commission has pointed out that this change will not be permitted, since it would be unfair on genuine independent candidates. Arrogance and incompetence - the two words that sum up UKIP's current leadership.

[TomTom]

"German Education Minister Annette Schavan

Point of reference. Germany does not have an "Education Minister" since Education is a Land-level responsibility not a Federal one.

She is Minister at the Federal Ministry and was previously Minister of Education in Baden-Wuerttemberg. She does not control the school curriculum - the SPD tried to do that under Schroeder and still want a National Curriculum like Kenneth Baker imposed in England. They want it so they can destroy Gymnasien (Grammar Schools) in successful states like Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bayern.

The worst education in Germany is where the SPD are in power and the best where the CDU/CSU control and the Comprehensive System was never implemented

[Mark McCartney]

If the BNP could obtain a higher calibre of candidate I have no doubt that it would achieve more sustained results.

I have no time for the BNP at all because it is led by racists and anti-semites, but in a country which is deeply unhappy and dissatisfied with modern life they are articulating the grievances which our party no longer wants to talk about.

We are allowing the BNP, by default, to present themselves as the tribunes of the unrepresented silent majority.

Personally I think it is a disgrace that someone like Ashcroft continues to have so much power in this party. Long before his fall from grace I thought Jeffrey Archer was bad news and Ashcroft ditto.

What should an ordinary working man think about the Tories when he opens his paper to read about fatcats of this ilk paying £300 a head to attend the party's so-called "ball" in Battersea Park?

The theme/dress code appears to have been (if the photos are anything to judge by) "International White Trash"

The gulf between the Tory leadership and ordinary working people is widening to a chasm.

[Tory T]

Freedom, indeed, Sean Fear has a good analysis up on political betting as we speak

"In last night’s by-elections, UKIP won the sort of votes which normally go to joke candidates. In Croydon LBC, Bensham Manor, they took 40 votes, 1.5% of the total, which was down from 305 in 2006. In Nuneaton BC, Bede, they won 8. They can at least take consolation from the fact that they beat the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Looney Party in Croydon. But their 8 votes in Nuneaton is truly dreadful. Even the English Democrats won 75 votes in that by-election."

[Elaib]

Tom Tom
You are, of course, correct about the German Minister being a Federal Minister and education beiing in the hands of the Lande. However at the European Council meeting in Heidelberg on the 1st/2nd March, she will be representing the German Presidency of the EU Council of Ministers and drawing up the agenda for EU interference in curricula.

I guess they couldn't fit all the Lande Ministers into the EP Committee room.

Even so I reckon that 1.5% for UKIP is slightly wishful thinking on the good Lord's part. That is after all thatis less than they got at the last Westminster elections, and to be fair to them, they are not losing support across the country, quite the contrary as far as I understand.

[tjhatcherite]

If the Conservatives had won that council seat in Bedworth, they would have the same number of seats as Labour with the solitary Lib Dem having the deciding vote.

Tory T's smug complacency is typical of the Cameroons in CCHQ. The Conservatives need to win seats like Nuneaton to win the election. Yet all he can do is make snide remarks at UKIP and agree with a BNP troll like "Freedom". Very revealing!!

[Alex Swanson]

"The impression I get is that "you" let your membership lapse because "you" don't like Dave and his team"

I stayed a loyal member through John Major's premiership, even though I didn't much like it. I even tried to revive a local branch, which didn't work because, to put it bluntly, every time Ken Clarke went on the "Today" programme he ruined six months' work.

The idea of trying to win an election is to be able to govern the country according to the principles you believe. Dave's defenders seem to believe in power for its own sake; so long as you're in then it doesn't matter what you actually do. What's the point in that? Why should I or anyone else work for someone who's made a specific point of spending his first year trashing what I and many others have spent time and money campaigning for over many years?

Furthermore, I resent the idea that some people seem to have that the membership exists only for the benefit of the leadership and should be blindly loyal. If anything, it's the other way around.

[Yet Another Anon]

Cameron's Tories should at this stage of the electoral cycle be taking almost every by-election seat in the country
Maybe at a parliamentary level, not at a council ward level - I think Blaneau Gwent would always be improbable for a Conservative victory, even oppositions that go on to win a landslide don't win every parliamentary seat contested in by-elections in the run up to it.

BNP successes are limited so far to town council level, they still hold no seats above that level - I'm sure UKIP are far happier being able to win 12 seats at EU level than any number of seats at Local Authority level, outside of the UK the BNP are little known of - say BNP outside the UK and people are more likely to name Banque Nationale de Paris or The Bangladeshi National Party.

[Yet Another Anon]

We are allowing the BNP, by default, to present themselves as the tribunes of the unrepresented silent majority.
That's how they present themselves, given that so far they have yet to even get a million votes in any set of elections this is a very bold claim on their part.

[Tory T]

I agree with Ukipper Matt Davies, sometime ConHome troll, who on the ukiphome blog calls the result "embarassing".

The simple fact is that in a Labour ward (this is a very Labour part of Nuneaton) the BNP vote rose probably due to the Birmingham kidnap terror plot. What is important is not to look at one events-influenced BNP near-miss, but at the broad spread of last night's results covering all the way to Croydon. As Sean Fear points out, this UKIP failure is not just in Nuneaton but across the board.

Those with good short-term memory will recall I pointed ConHomers to Mike Smithson's analysis of all the major pollsters showing collapsing ukip support. What we saw last night is the trend the majors picked up reflected in actual votes.

This failure started, but has not ended, with ukip's awful result in Bromley & Chiselhurst, where they ran Nigel Farage, considered it their core territory and spent over a hundred thousand pounds.

Perhaps, at last, we can now stop exaggerating the threat of the pro-Labour ukip and get on with fighting the real enemy, this appalling government.

[thatcherite]

Tory T ("very Labour part of Nuneaton")is lying again. Sean Fear wrote on "Political Betting"

"The Conservatives came a close second here in 2004 and 2006, and really should have expected to take this seat, given recent local by-election results. Instead, Labour held it, and the BNP came from nowhere to win a close second place. The Labour vote here held up much better than the Conservative vote, which suggests the BNP did better among former Conservative voters than Labour voters."

This was a disastrous result for Cameron in a ward (in a key target Parliamentary seat) that determined control of the council.

[Andrew Smith]

Can anyone remind me of the result in Bromley?

[Gospel of Enoch]

According to Auntie, 12000 Tory voters decided NOT to vote for the (new) Camerloonite candidate Tory this time - a DISASTER, even though you (just) kept the seat:

Bob Neill, Conservative: 11,621
(- 11,962 from 2005)
Ben Abbotts, Liberal Democrat: 10,988
(+1,620)
Nigel Farage, UKIP: 2,347
(+872)
Rachel Reeves, Labour: 1,925
(-8,316)
Ann Garrett, Green: 811
(-659)
Paul Winnett, National Front: 476
John Hemming-Clarke, Independent: 442
Steven Uncles, English Democrats: 212
John Cartwright, Monster Raving Looney Party: 132
Nick Hadziannis, Independent: 65
Anne Belsey, Money Reform Party: 33
Turnout: 40.5% (-24.3%)

[Yet Another Anon]

And of course the BNP didn't stand in Bromley & Chislehurst, if they are really so popular why aren't they contesting every single parliamentary by-election? UKIP and the Liberal Democrats both increased their vote and the Conservative vote more than halved.

[powellite]

Am I the only reader of ConHome not to give a monkeys about UKIP? People seem to be delving into Local Government by-elections to prove that UKIP's a serious threat...it's not. No-one apart from the ususal swivel-eyed loons takes them seriously...what is it about this site that seems to attract people who have no idea what people in the country think? Those people who keep on banging on about how Cameron is haemorraghing support to UKIP might like to actually talk to some people outside of the world of politics rather than indulging in pointless armchair doom-mongering. I think you'll find that apart from reading Christopher "Nostradamus" Booker in the Sunday Telegraph, hardly anyone of the general public will actually know who on earth UKIP are...

[thatcherite]

"Powellite" (sic) should look at UKIP's vote in the 2004 European elections. Millions voted for UKIP - it beat the Lib Dems.

It is highly unlikely that UKIP will win a Parliamentary seat but it could the Conservatives several European and a considerable number of Commons seats.

That is why Cameron is worried about UKIP. He should be worried about the BNP in the Midlands, Yorkshire and the North too.

[Yet Another Anon]

hardly anyone of the general public will actually know who on earth UKIP are
Most people know who UKIP are, and most people know of the BNP as well, then again most people know who Respect are and yet they don't get many votes. The BNP forming the main opposition on Barking or Burnley council and then slipping back probably has the main effect of presenting the illusion of effective opposition to Labour locally meanwhile Labour go on running things there and after a while the BNP lose the seats they already have either because they are voted out or their candidates leave the party saying they didn't know what possessed them to join it in the first place. Meanwhile UKIP while it hasn't established itself as a party of Local Government has made substantial progress in EU elections and has been building it's vote in General Elections - even if the BNP control Barking Council for a time they aren't going to have much power to change things, they will be restricted by Westminster and Brussels rules and probably would throw their position away anyway. Certainly the main parties are letting down the public, but parties such as the BNP and Veritas aren't giving people what they want either - people don't just want rhetoric but they want a sense that something will be done and done effectively.

[powellite]

Thatcherite

"UKIP's vote in the 2004 European elections. Millions voted for UKIP - it beat the Lib Dems"

Very true - that was the European Elections. UKIP has done well in "European" elections because, despite what they say, it's a single issue party i.e. Europe. I myself have sympathies with some of what UKIP says, but I wouldn't dream of voting for them. It's time we concentrated on some real problems, like dealing with Brown, rather than worrying about a non-party.

[Tory T]

Do you realise how silly you sound when you call Bob O'Neill a "Camerloonie candidate"?

Part of the B&C problem was that David Cameron and his agenda were totally excised from the campaign.

UKIP hoped to make huge gains in that seat, put up one of their supposed stars, spent a hundred grand, brought in all their activists and flat-lined.

This terrible result has been repeated across the country. People thought Horsham, with its 40 ukip votes, was the nadir - until last night of course.

[Tory T]

"That is why Cameron is worried about UKIP."

After tonight's set of results, nobody is worried about ukip. Even the English Democrats outpoll them by almost ten to one.

[thatcherite]

I am not a UKIP member and have never voted for the Party. It is clear, however, that many traditional Conservatives are disillusioned with the direction of the Tories under David Cameron's leadership.

Many loyal grassroots members continue to work hard locally despite being unhappy with Dave's green liberalism. The danger is, however, that many Thatcherite voters will simply withdraw their support and abstain.

Michael Howard never recovered his poll lead after it was lost during his disastrous 2004 European Election campaign. David Cameron may suffer the same fate. UKIP's Parliamentary threat is greater than many realise.

[change]

"Well I think that claim has been vindicated in both the polls and in recent council by elections"
Which is why the tories came third after the BNP with 301 at Nuneaton recently.......

[Alex Fosyth]

The crippling problem with the analysis of posters such as "Tory T" and the misnamed "Powellite" is that they approach UKIP as if it were simply a much smaller and less successful equivalent of the Tory Party falling far behind in the same race.

This approach is as ludicrous as declaring the US Army superior to Al Quaeda simply on the basis of weaponry and manpower.

UKIP is a guerrilla group which poses a direct and very real threat to sabotage Tory victory. So what if some UKIP branch resigns en masse? One man and a dog will set up the following month, run a candidate, and split off the top slice of the Tory vote - the slice that matters.

27 Tory candidates at the last General Election learned the lesson the hard way.

Boy Wonder Cameron can bluster all he likes about UKIP. In the end, if he doesn't go cap in hand to Farage and promise a genuine pro-British policy on the EU, UKIP will stuff him.

[Scotty]

Thatcherite, for UKIP to be a parliamentary threat to anyone it has to poll significantly more than 8 votes, in fact it should winning council seats. It is not a threat, the fact that some of the main pollsters cannot even find a UKIP voter and they could not even get the 10 people needed to nominate a candidate to vote says it all.
"UKIP's Parliamentary threat is greater than many realise." No the threat to UKIP is that they collapse completely as a political party before the European elections, simply becoming a tory/BOO pressure group with no actual local branch frame work or activists on the ground to do any of the legwork.
The conservative party is the strongest it has been politically or financially for many years, and anyone who thinks that most members are prepared to give up and walk way now at a time when Labour are in decline and a Brown premiership beckons is talking rubbish.
Let the man who has been the architect of the last 10 years NuLabour domestic policy win by voting for a pressure group, don't make me laugh.

[Scotty]

"Boy Wonder Cameron can bluster all he likes about UKIP. In the end, if he doesn't go cap in hand to Farage and promise a genuine pro-British policy on the EU, UKIP will stuff him."
That is it, I have entered the twilight zone!

[Cleo]

I am considering voting Conservative at the next election but all I see on this site is negativity about the leadership and talking up UKIP, it puts me off. The way to win the election is to improve public services, work on global action on climate change, take power back to local government and communities etc

[Tory T]

Alex, except that, to repeat the basic fact yet again, UKIP are polling far worse now than they did in 2005 and will not repeat their splintering effect. They are sinking into nothingness.

Opinion and real polls all show the same thing.

Cleo, the site is wonderful, but doesn't in my view truly reflect the grass roots. In my area they are energised, optimistic, fully embracing "Vote Blue go Green" and also believe Cameron is a real Conservative.

You'll find that up and down the country it's things like NHS Action days to stop Brown's health cuts that really have impact on the ground.

Under Cameron we scent victory for a true Tory agenda that is also strong on social justice and the environment.

Don't be misled, the majority of Tory members are delighted with David Cameron. A recent real opinion poll showed that the Conservatives under him had the highest "core vote" support of any party.

[Alex Fosyth]

"anyone who thinks that most members are prepared to give up and walk way now at a time when Labour are in decline and a Brown premiership beckons is talking rubbish."

Agreed.

Most of our members are likely to have trouble staggering as far as their Zimmer frames let alone walking away to anywhere.

[thatcherite]

Get real Scotty.

Bede was a key target ward that the Conservatives needed to win to take Nuneaton council (a key target seat). The Conservatives were close in that ward in the last two sets of local elections. The BNP came from nowhere to push the Conservatives into third place withy nearly twice the Tory vote.

UKIP is a threat to the Conservatives in South and rural areas. The BNP is the threat in the North, Midlands and West Torkshire. Opinion polls show that the BNP and UKIP are taking votes away from the Conservatives in the Midlands and the North.

As for financial strength, the Conservatve was forced to sell its main asset Smith Square to pay off the debts run up under Raymond Monbiot's term as Treasurer. There is nothing to offer the bank or lenders as security now. That is why Cameron is so keen on state funding of political parties.

[matt wright]

Good point from Cleo. Anyone normal visiting this site would think they had entered a parallel universe!!! It has completely lost it. A few months ago there was genuinely interesting debate. Now it is infected with constant posts by a small group utterly obsessed with UKIP and childishly ranting on about Cameron with silly new nicknames every day. Cleo, this does not in anyway whatsoever reflect what people are saying on the doors and I am out in the real world talking to voters every day.

Matt

[?]

Tory T = MM?

[Tory T]

Again, Non-Thatcherite, no, opinion polls don't show any such thing. Opinion polls show ukip are collapsing, not taking support from the Tories.

Opinion polls

"Populus recorded a drop from 2% to 1% with five out out of the seven supporters (not percentages you should note) being male.

ICM discovered that 11 people in its survey said they had voted UKIP at the 2005 General but only 3 were ready to do so now - all of them male.

YouGov found an unchanged 3% UKIP support level - the same as it has been for several months with the men, as ever, outnumbering women."

Mike Smithson presenting some recent results from the polls on PB.com. The following poll had ukip support so low they did not even register 1%

[Cleo]

Political parties change, they have to because the electorate changes. It saddens me that so many people do not exercise their right to vote. But a positive and progressive message of social justice, environment and improved public services will go down well on the doorstep both to people like me who have not vote Conservative in the past and, hopefully, to people who do not vote.

[Alex Fosyth]

But you're talking about UKIP Tory T. Wasn't that what you said you wouldn't do?

Message for Cleo. The Tory Party remains as split as ever if not more. It's faithfully reflected on this site.

Why not join the party and find out for yourself?

[abctory]

"As for financial strength, the Conservatve was forced to sell its main asset Smith Square to pay off the debts run up under Raymond Monbiot's term as Treasurer. There is nothing to offer the bank or lenders as security now. That is why Cameron is so keen on state funding of political parties."
thatcherite | February 09, 2007 at 19:05

The Party Treasurer during this term was Lord Hesketh and until yesterday Lord Marland. The decision to move from Smith Square was taken by Michael Howard, the then Party Leader. His decision has cost the Party over £5 million pounds in rent and moving costs.

[Tory T]

If there was no actual news on them. This utter collapse is news. At least, to those who have not been following ukip's tailspin in the opinion polls...

[malcolm]

I think of all the surreal comments I've seen on this site recently Alex Forsyths' 'Cameron will have to go cap in hand to Farage' and the 'Tory remains as split as ever' must take the biscuit! What world do you live in Alex?
And 'thatcherites' talk of 'purges' is equally ludicrous. Some people on this blog have either absolutely no sense of reality at all,either that or they indulge in rather pathetic attempts to make mischief.

[michael mcgough]

"To align the Party's perceived priorities with people's priorities. This means focusing on issues that really matter to people – NHS, Education, Crime."

Only those three issues?

[houndtang]

Europe, Europe, Europe. And fox-hunting. And the SAS.

[matt wright]

I don't think we would go too wrong in just focusing on NHS, education and crime. Those 3 things come top on the thousands of surveys I have sent out in the last few months. Also by focusing on a few things there is a chance the message will get through,

Matt

[Barry]

For people to be enthused about the Conservative Party in order to replace the present wretched government it must offer the electorate a robust alternative to it. Too many people simply don't see that true alternative in the Conservative Party at the present time. That is why many are abstaining from voting altogether and others are voting UKIP or increasingly BNP.

[Alex Forsyth]

"I don't think we would go too wrong in just focusing on NHS, education and crime."

How do Tory policies actually differ from Labour in these three areas?

[Praguetory]

Can this thread be pulled kicking and screaming back on topic. Ashcroft's seven points make sense. I can't take people discussing one council by-election result in a Labour heartland seriously especially as they don't seem to have looked into the context. And as for the contribution from the unimaginative person who had no idea how to increase membership (!) and said that the leadership has too much attachment to extremist (!!) ideas like low taxation or small government (!!!), words fail me.

[James Maskell]

I thought the observation that support was between 36-39% was pretty much common knowledge. Our support has been hovering at the 38% mark now for some time. Ive been reporting that fact to local members for months now...

[TomTom]

I don't think we would go too wrong in just focusing on NHS, education and crime.

Focus ? What does that mean ?

Education is a joke. It is £52 billion wasted on a disastrous structure which Conservatives and Labour produced with their crackpot schemes. The Conservative Education policy is "public school for our kind of people" and "state comprehensives for the hoi-polloi".

The Conservatives are barely credible on Education and frankly government should get out of it. Without the Conservative National Curriculum Labour could not have destroyed what was left; and without Keith Joseph's GCSE rubbish we might have had decent school exams; and if the Tories had not abolished University-based GCE Exam Boards to create private monopolies like EdExcel the country might have a diverse range of quality Exam Boards as once we had in Oxford Local, Oxford & Cambridge, London, Welsh, AEB, JMB et al.

No doubt after another Govt ALL school-leavers will be illiterate and innumerate but leave school with PhDs in trampolining

[matt wright]

Well in education we have said and correctly so that more freedom should be given to good headteachers and more power to get rid of bad ones. One of the biggest impacts you can see in a school is a good headteacher and converseley when a headteacher is poor the whole lot goes down.
Health is suffering from too much top down interference and bureaucracy and we need to empower staff in the NHS.
Crime is rooted largely in problems with a minority of feckless young men, some on drugs. The welfare state has bred this problem. There needs to be a two-pronged attack on this, firstly to spell out that people have responsibilities as well as rights and to embody this into our structures from an early age so that good behaviour is rewarded and bad behaviour faces a real escalation of penalties with no ifs and buts.

Matt