Populus records reduced Tory lead

A Populus poll for this morning's Times puts the Tory lead at 3% (down from 7% last month).

ConservativeHome is sceptical about the value of 'if Brown were Labour leader' polls but the gap with Cameron's Conservatives narrows to just 1% when Populus asked that question this month.  Generally more meaningful are voters' assessments of Gordon Brown's qualities.  69% see Labour's likely next leader as "strong" and 53% see him as "statesmanlike."  On the downside only 22% see Mr Brown as "charismatic".

Comments

[HF]

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2241462.ece

"Tony Blair's unpopularity has dragged Labour down to its lowest rating since the last general election, according to the results of the latest monthly "poll of polls" for The Independent.....The Tories have achieved their highest "poll-of-polls" rating since last May..."

[Mark McCartney]

Blair exposed as the lying crook he is and still Cameron can't achieve a convincing lead.

Remind me how long IDS lasted and we kicked him out after he had achieved a better lead than this!!!

I think it's time, not necessarily to remove Cameron at this stage, but to keep his situation under permanent review.

[Andrew Kennedy]

I am extremely sceptical about any poll that puts Labour above 32%.

In my own constituency we have just sent out 10,000 postal surveys in 6 target wards. Admittedly, the sampling and methodology were not representative, but given the survey covered 60% of households it must have some statistical value.

So far, of the 170 respondents who identified as "Labour last time" only 97 chose Labour "next time".

Whilst the majority of these "defectors" have switched to "will not vote" (no doubt the group that will most likely return to Labour when the election comes) an encouraging number are switching directly to Conservative. This is the first time in 15 years I have seen any real evidence of Labour voters switching directly to us.

Another interesting statistic (although the sample is too small to be of any real value) the majority of C2/D Labour defectors (those with a voter vault code of 3 - 5) are going directly to BNP.

There is also evidence of Conservative losses to UKIP (and BNP) particularly amongst those voters identifying Europe, Immigration and Crime as their priority issues. These losses, however, are more than compensated by new support (coming mainly from former LibDem and previous non voters).

As I said at the beginning, the findings are not representative so should be treated with caution, but I do believe they indicate movements in support that cannot be ignored.

[bee]

this is obviously proof that the Tories need to adopt a UKIP agenda, despite the fact UKIP only poll 1%.

Anything else?

[Mark Senior]

Perhaps it is the constant description of the Prime Minister as a liar , crook etc , that is turning people away from the Conservatives thinking of them as the nasty party . Cash for Honours rightly or wrongly does not seem to register as of any importance with the voters as a whole and probably just reminds many of them of the sleaze associated with the last Conservative government .

[Mark McCartney]

No Bee. This is obviously proof that the Tories need to adopt a Tory agenda

[Gospel of Enoch]

UKIP poll 1% because people know under first-past-the-post that it might well be a wasted vote. That doesn't make them want to vote Tory, though. If the Tories took on a UKIP agenda, however, people would be encouraged to vote for it and know their guy might win...

[Gospel of Enoch]

No, Mark: pace Paul dacre of the Daily Mail, the Tories need to adopt a CONSERVATIVE agenda!

[realcon]

I think the people are confused by all three parties having the same policies.

Many think they might as well leave the present lot in office or if wanting a change go for the long-term party of the middle.

[Andrew]

"UKIP poll 1% because people know under first-past-the-post that it might well be a wasted vote."

Or because people think they're a bunch of loons, an impression roughly confirmed when they start playing with tanks and talking about "nig-nogs".

[Jon Gale]

We have a Conservative agenda - less multiculturalism, lower taxes, more prisons, support for family, less regulations, scrap Social chapter, etc.

What you/UKIP want is an ideologically pure longest suicide note in history.

[Tory T]

Andrew Woodman very encouraging news indeed. What is your constituency if that is not a secret?

Really good news for the region.

[Andy Stidwill]

I hate the BNP and UKIP, but I'm really surprised that both of them are not showing up with even higher ratings in the polls.

As Andrew Kennedy says above, there are an awful lot of disgruntled C2/D Labour defectors out there who I'm sure are going to vote for them, with a few disgruntled Tory defectors also going to UKIP.

[Umbrella man]

The 'disgruntleds' Andy are showing up as no shows! They're stay-at-homes. Very few are going to UKIP or the BNP.

[Gospel of Enoch]

Loons? According to the greatest Tory of the latter half of the 20th century, people think UKIPs EU stance is "clearer and more principled" than the Conservatives...

[George Hinton]

This is quite desparate, notwithstanding all the scandal and crisis, DC cannot seem to make headway. Are the polls trustworthy? or will DC have to come up with some real policy and not the anodyne, middle of the road pap that he has been serving up so far.
Blair is on the skids re loans for peerages, Gordo starting to slide with the Smith Institute enquiry, NuLab are on the rack over Iraq, NuLab are on the rack over the NHS, Education, Policing, Crime, Immigration, Justice, Pensions, Inflation, Security, you name it, they're on it.
We now find that Abu Hamza's legal aid bill is more than £500k, when British people are being denied legal aid, and Hamza had assets that were not properly seized. What have NuLab got us into.
Either the electorate have all become apathetic or the Labourites will not change and want a return to Old Labour, which means that DC has made no impact on the swing voter from UKIP or the Lib-Dems or the other parties, even if that is BNP/NF.
Time i'm afraid to say for a reality check.

[HF]

UKIP only poll 1% because less than 2% of the population are grumpy old right wing men.

And I am one of those 2% that is pragmatic and choose the Conservatives!

[Edward]

Realcon: "Many think they might as well leave the present lot in office or if wanting a change go for the long-term party of the middle."

Why on earth is this the case if so many are so desperate to get rid of NuLab's horrible leftism?

[Yet Another Anon]

So far, of the 170 respondents who identified as "Labour last time" only 97 chose Labour "next time".
What about the people who didn't vote Labour in 2005 because of the War in Iraq and either didn't vote last time or voted Liberal Democrat or for small local parties, Labour's vote among Muslims had hit it's lowest levels ever, but have been recovering since 2003 and there were always those who were put off by Tony Blair who could be returning now that he is going. Most elections even where the partys vote appears the same as in past elections there have been many changes in the composition of the vote since the previous one.

[Richard]

"Loons? According to the greatest Tory of the latter half of the 20th century, people think UKIPs EU stance is "clearer and more principled" than the Conservatives..."

There's a difference between their policies (many of which have merit) and the people who run the party. Unfortunately for UKIP many of them do come across as a bit mad.

[Yet Another Anon]

UKIP only poll 1% because less than 2% of the population are grumpy old right wing men.
What about the 2.7 Million people who voted for UKIP in 2004, and they got 2.2% of the popular vote in 2005 - many grumpy old people (as with grumpy people generally) don't vote at all and I'm sure most of the parties have their share of the grumpy vote.

[Jon Gale]

Politicalbetting.com points out a worrying discovery:

"While 56% of those in the survey felt that the loans- for-peerages allegations had “significantly reduced” their trust in Labour a total of 43% said yes to the proposition that the police investigation seems “to have been unnecessarily heavy-handed.”

Labour's 'bash the police' strategy seems to be working.

[Richard]

"Loons? According to the greatest Tory of the latter half of the 20th century, people think UKIPs EU stance is "clearer and more principled" than the Conservatives..."

There's a difference between their policies (many of which have merit) and the people who run the party. Unfortunately for UKIP many of them do come across as a bit mad.

[michael mcgough]

Libs + 7%,Tories - 3%

Say no more.

[simon]

The poll results are no real surprise. Both main parties are regarded as 'virtually identical' by the wider public, and the poll undertaken by 'yougov' for the 'taxpayers alliance' underpins the main problem facing the Party. Nigh on 67% ( i think)of people said that no party reflects their own position on certain types of policy.That's a shocking indictement of politics today. 'Government is seen as doing 'bugger all' for the ordinary citizen and only becomes something other than a tax-revenue collecting machine when you i)break the law and get a 'jail out for free' card;ii)money thrown at you if you defend terrorists;iii)become an unemployed layabout; iv) come to the country illegally and get the standard 'free house' and a raft of benefits. I'm sure you can think of many more examples. The way to connect with the public is to show what the conservatives will do for people once in power. Unless we address housing, work/life conditions,immigration/asylum, tax- and Europe- we deserve a two fingered salute from the electorate.

[Gareth]

Drawing conclusions from a single poll, whether it be this realtively bad one or other, recent, relatively good ones, is manifestly a silly thing to do.

Personally, what I find more interesting is that I knew exactly what would be said on this thread before I even opened it. There are a now a group of militantly anti-Cameron/ pro-UKIP posters who are making debate on this site impossible. Every thread is hijacked to suit their agenda. They are ruining what was once a useful and interesting web site.

[Michael McGowan]

Jon, isn't the problem with your Conservative agenda post at 10.08 that, while all those commitments exist on paper, they will not be worth a row of beans if there is a Tory-Lib Dem coalition after the next election? Can you really see the Lib Dems committing to greater controls on immigration, lower taxes or leaving the Social Chapter (which is a legal impossibility anyway)?

[Praguetory]

The polls will be a roller-coaster ride. There appear to be some Leftie don't knows rallying to Labour, but the general trend is away from Labour. Stop banging on about the leadership - get involved at grassroots.

[Michael McGowan]

"Every thread is hijacked to suit their agenda. They are ruining what was once a useful and interesting web site". Cheer up, Gareth. They are only expressing a view, even if it is predictable. You don't have to agree with it. I could make similar points about the likes of Changetowin. There are plenty of other interesting posters on this site: Sean Fear, Malcolm, Simon Newman, Graeme Archer and Londoner to name but five.

[Yet Another Anon]

Can you really see the Lib Dems committing to greater controls on immigration, lower taxes or leaving the Social Chapter (which is a legal impossibility anyway)?
It could well be more difficult than simply leaving the EU, because it would need a renegociation of EU treaties - it might mean the UK going along with some variation of the EU Constitution measure that some are attempting to revive, on the other hand if the UK decided to leave the EU but they didn't accept this then the UK government could tell Brussels to get stuffed and that if they tried anything we'd stick a few nuclear warheads up their jackse.

[Tory Twit]

We are on our way!

[Andy Stidwill]

I find the row involving Cameron and Dr Mohammad Naseem rather interesting, especially since at the last election he stood for Respect in Birmingham Perry Barr and the Labour vote actually INCREASED, despite being a constituency with thousands of Muslim voters and the Iraq war having just been launched.

[Richard Allen]

Perry Barr was a poor choice of constituency for Respect to stand in. Muslims only make up 15% of the electorate and only have a substantial presence in one ward. The Labour MP is also a muslim.

[Hug a Druggie]

Cameron knows what he is doing. He is bound to succeed.

[Andy Stidwill]

The Labour MP in Perry Barr supported the Iraq war, so you'd have expected his vote to drop and Naseem's vote to be much higher than 5.6%.

[Yet Another Anon]

and the Labour vote actually INCREASED, despite being a constituency with thousands of Muslim voters and the Iraq war having just been launched.
Then again there has always been the contradiction among many Muslims that Saddam Hussein who was pretty much an infidel - he only started showing up in Mosques (with a camera crew strangely enough) when he was about to get his ass kicked out of Kuwait and wanted to rally support, many Muslims wanted to see him brought down but in many cases only if it was done by a country or group they perceived as Muslim.

A muslim arguing for regime change in Iraq was more likely to get respected for this and get support for them than a non-muslim among muslims and this may well have been one factor in Labour's favour there, the war in Iraq wasn't the only issue but it was a major one in regard to support transferring across to Respect and to the Liberal Democrats from Labour.

[matt wright]

I've seen similar evidence in canvass survey data as Andrew referred to. You have to be very careful though as people better dispoed to us will tend to return the forms, however there are trends that can be looked at and compared with other local info. I think he is right, there are an interesting number of people switching straight from Labour to us. I think this is generally the result of the DC approach and they are voters that left us in 97. On the doors I find it tends to be women. Also they like the messages about NHS and also messages that we won't just ditch everything Labour did,

Matt

[Cleo]

The Conservative Party needs to attract Labour and Lib Dem voters if it has a chance at the next election so going to a hard right agenda will not achieve this.

[Oliver McCarthy]

Blair is Maggie (both charismatic), Gordon is Major (both dull). Hague (young and extreme) was Foot (old and extreme), IDS (rightwing and bald -- and people made fun of him) was Kinnock (leftwing and bald -- and people made fun of him), Howard was John Smith (both bespectacled and both useless)... so in theory Cameron should be Blair.

Unfortunately he's just going to be another Kinnock. Cameron has started to make progress on the NHS, just as Kinnock did on nukes in the late '80s, but he's incredidly weak on his own leading issue (which for the Socialists was and is the NHS but for the Tories was and is defence), and so Gordon will win the next General Election (this year or in 2010) very comfortably.

For anyone who still doesn't quite get this, '97 was '79, '01 was '83, '05 was '87 The next election will be Labour's '92 -- and there's no guaratee that they'll have a Black Wednesday to finish them off afterwards.

[ToMTom]

170 out of 10.000 !!!

That is wholly meaningless

[Mark McCartney]

>>Gareth - There are a now a group of militantly anti-Cameron/ pro-UKIP posters who are making debate on this site impossible.<<

I have said this before, but these pitiful yelps from Gareth and his ilk lead us to a most interesting conclusion.

Where is the army of pro-Cameron pro control freak reinforcements prepared to roll over the "UKIP trolls"?

The answer is that they don't exist. In a party where yet another senior member has been disciplined for speaking the truth...

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/newspolitics/tm_headline=-tory-suspended-after-letter-to-western-mail-%26method=full%26objectid=18581083%26siteid=50082-name_page.html

....rank and fiule members are turning against the tyranny of the totalitarian Cameron regime.

We need Cameron's top-down control to be replaced by genuine democracy. It will come, and CH is a vital weapon in the arsenal of all true Tory Democrats.

[Richard Carey]

.rank and fiule members are turning against the tyranny of the totalitarian Cameron regime.

The phrase "wind and water" comes to mind in your case, I can't imagine why...

[Gospel of Enoch]

Blair = Major, because, I'm told, you would leave meetings convinced they agreed with you - only to realise the other side felt the same way after a meeting with them, too...

[Paul D]

Oliver, for me '05 was Labour's '92 (something an 'old' Labour work colleague agrees with me on) - an unpopular government re-elected with a greatly reduced majority because the alternative was less popular. In the short term Labour's win was good for them, but I expect them to lose extremely badly in 2010 (and with such a small swing needed for Labour's overall majority to go I do not expect Brown to call an election any sooner than he absolutely has to, having waited so long for the top job)