MORI poll puts Tories 4% ahead

It seems rare that all of Britain's five main pollsters give a very similar message but the graphic on the right summarises a fairly consistent and slightly strengthening Tory position as Labour's woes mount.

There's more detail on MORI's poll on its website.

Comments

[Yet Another Anon]

Seems much the same as for most of the last 8 months of 2006. It's a mid-term poll so you wouldn't expect it to show a Labour lead, if people expect mid-term polls to represent the final result they are liable to be dissapointed, in mid-term in the early 1980's, mid 1980's and 1989-92 Labour supporters expected election victories that never came, if the Conservatives are shown as being on 40%+ in 2009 and Labour on 34%- then there can be high hopes of a Conservative overall majority, although even then an apparent trend towards a Conservative victory could turn out to be another Labour majority, the fact is that even supposing this poll is what would happen if there were a General Election tomorrow and that only those certain to vote came out, it would leave still the possibility of Labour being able to form a minority or coalition government.

[Graeme Archer]

If you would actually perform the analysis I have suggested ad nauseam then you might have some basis for stating opinions about this latest clutch! Since you won't, ooh look, here are some more numbers, let's put them in a list, umm, they're a bit closer together than last time we put them in a list, umm...

[Chris Palmer]

No reason for complacency though.

[eugene]

I am gutted at a lead of only 4 %- what with a lame duck PM , where 10 Downing Street is described as a 'crime scene', useless Ministers, poor Department performance in terms of NHS, Home Office and Education, a disaster in Iraq, waste of tax payers money, interest rates on the up, house prices predicted to fall and if they do not, few without a house can afford one....this country is in CHAOS !!!!....and we are 4 % in front...should be 24.

[Gospel of Enoch]

I see that Camerloon's personal net satisfaction rating has dropped from +14 to -9... Time to unpack the gray suits?

[sjm]

We cannot compare 2007 to 1997, because of different perceptions then and now.

Then, only the Tories were perceived to be incompetent slime-buckets; now that Labour has shattered the false hopes of so many, ALL politicians are regarded with apathy at best and disgust at worst.

So it's going to be a very, very long time before it's all 'bright, confident morning' again as far as the electorate is concerned.

Cameron's going for a slow and steady improvement, rather than hysterical dashes, and it's working. It might work even better if certain people stopped their damn whingeing.

[Annabel Herriott]

Oh! sjm, wouldnt it Just! I too am fed up with the trolls. Theres a nice kiddie story about trolls, they all have long dirty fingernails, and eat bug pie. Says it all reallt.

[HF]

MORI always difficult to interpret because they do not weight by past vote. Has usually shown optimistic polls for Labour.

The trend in MORI's polls is interesting.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/trends/voting-cert.shtml

One area where MORI digresses from the rest is that the others show large upturns for the LDs this month, Mori only has a 1% gain.

[Mike Wood]

Yet Another Anon: "It's a mid-term poll so you wouldn't expect it to show a Labour lead, if people expect mid-term polls to represent the final result they are liable to be dissapointed, in mid-term in the early 1980's, mid 1980's and 1989-92 Labour supporters expected election victories that never came"

You might be right, but another way of looking at it is that the polls haven't shown big opposition leads big term but they have suggested far bigger Labour leads than Labour actually won at the following General Election. At similar times in previous parliamentary terms, the opinion polls gave the following Labour leads

1994
MORI - Jan 28: +20%
Gallup - Feb 4: +19.5%
ICM - Feb 16: +25%
Actual result 1997 General Election: +13%

1999
MORI - Jan 28: +32%
Gallup - Feb 5: +24%
ICM - Feb 9: +21%
Actual result 2001 General Election: +9.3%

2003
ICM - Jan 21: +13%
MORI - Jan: +9%
Populus - Feb 11: +1%
ICM - Feb 18: +8%
Actual result 2005 General Election: +3%

Apart from the Populus poll in 2003, all of these leads turned out to greatly over-estimate Labour's support. Populus polls were showing much smaller Labour leads up until Autumn 2003, when they presumably changed their methodology as all their later polls were in line with other companies.

[Tory Twit]

We are going to romp home!

[Andrew Woodman]

I don't think you can compare the polls of the 80's with now. We live in a very different and more cycical age. If Gordon Brown becomes PM, I really can't see where Labours pre poll bounce will come. I don't think they'll be able to scare voters that we are all hard right swivel eyed loons.

I would like to know what the regional breakdown is however. I still have concerns about the Midlands and North.

[Paul H-J]

Would those whingeing about Cameron please remember that there is not going to be an election for years - unless some Labour MPs with real integrity - and where would you find one of those, still less 30-50 - have the courage to abstain or vote against Brown on a vote of no-confidence.

Steady as she goes - tortoise not hare - we'll get there.

[Yet Another Anon]

At similar times in previous parliamentary terms, the opinion polls gave the following Labour leads
The 1994 situation was one in which Labour was in opposition and the Conservative government was facing mid-term crisis, in 1999 there was a certain continuity because the previous Conservative government had been in government so long that people were still behaving as if it was in government, the ones you quote in 2003 were before the War in Iraq which saw a radical shift in support from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, the Conservative vote hardly changed in 2005. There might be more crisises, equally there might be nothing major to shake government support and in fact they could benefit from continuing recovery of people who left after the War in Iraq, equally there could be an issue that really benefited the government. The Falklands War happened largely because of defence cuts and at first seemed likely to bring down Mrs Thatcher, however it undoubtedly ended up giving an extra boost to the Conservative Party in 1983, they would have won anyway but not by as large a margin. Opinion Polls frequently show up a great deal of fashionable opinion - it's like that picture of Che Guevarra, lots of people in the past were attracted to the image but that was all - they might have expressed admiration or sympathy but when it came down to it it wasn't what they wanted to happen, Tony Benn comes out as popular in surveys but does anyone ever imagine he would have lead Labour to an election victory?

[John Ashworth]

Agree with you eugene, 4% is pathetic.

[Yet Another Anon]

I really can't see where Labours pre poll bounce will come.
If the poll is correct, and certainly I don't really think much of polls, the actual result would see the Conservative Party having to try and form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and DUP in order to have a majority, or form a coalition with Labour or do a deal with Labour to form a minority Conservative government, there is no doubt that Gordon Brown has some things planned for the next 2 years including some things to generate good publicity - all governments keep goodies to pull out of the bag in the run up to an election, if there was a 39% to 35% margin then for it to turn to a margin in which Labour holds or increases it's majority doesn't take a shift in that many people's opinion.

[Andrew Woodman]

35% if you believe this poll. Others have had Labour nearer 30%. I can't believe that Labour have only lost 1% after all the events of the last 2 years.

[Matt Davis]

Is this just more flatlining? I don't quite see that this proves very much at all.

As I said to, I think it was HF, yesterday the smart move would now be to start to introduce those policies which the party's own private poling showed the electorate liked a lot until told that they were Tory policies.If there has been a success in the last year or so it has been to make the electorate cease to wholly hate us in a knee jerk manner so now that they are more open and amenable to the Party let's give them the things that they liked the sound of when the only thing putting them off was the Party itself.

[Londoner]

And I wonder how many posting on this thread would actually be in the 39% (or whatever) telling a pollster that they would vote Conservative?

Aren't you a Lib Dem supporter Eugene?

[Ted]

1 This poll is from Mori, which uses a different methodology from the others and has tended IMHO to often overstate Labour so its good to have a lead.

2 Even better is the UKIP/BNP share - UKIP somewhere less than 1% but more than 0.5%, BNP less than 0.5%

[Sally Rideout Baker]

In June 2003 Iain Duncan Smith had gained a 5% lead over Labour. We should have a 23% lead by now. Why is David Davis not instigating a vote of no confidence?

[Rudyard.]

Sally,such a vote of no confidence will come,but,only after the very poor results that the May Local elections will bring.

It's just a matter of time for the Cameron spit to hit the Conservative fan,wait and see.

(Better wear a macintosh).

[HF]

Matt Davis, is it smart to come out with all the policies now?

When Brown takes over he will have to say something and by speaking now we risk him stealing the best bits of our policies.

What we have to do is make large gains of 500+ councillors in May, ideally including 100 + from the Lib Dems. 1,000 more might be possible which would take 1/6th off the Labour base and knock back the Lib Dems. Those gains are going to depend on a favourable national image (we have that) and the right local policies communicated on doorstep and through the letterbox.

[Tory T]

My goodness. Earth to Rudyard. Are you receiving me. Over?

Poor locals?

Come back here the day after and call for Cameron's head then.

[Rudyard.]

Very well Tory T,but I really don't see why everyone is so excited by a 4% figure,you are going backwards,you had 10% lead at the end of October 2006 didn't you?

The North that is being badmouthed by some of you will kill you dead,especially over the £2 million of Birminghams council taxes you are gaining.

Wait and see.

[UKIP@HOME]

http://e-ukip-home.blogspot.com/

Please spare a thought for poor Nigel Farage - he has had to endure an endless round of interviews to promote the United Kingdom Independence Party recently and what are the fruits of his Labour?

A no show in the latest MORI poll!

And considering all his TV appearances I do hope naughty Nigel has donated his fees to UKIP rather than pocketing them - that really would be naughty of him!

[Andy Stidwill]

I agree with eugene.

A lead of only 4% despite Blair being almost arrested is a bit disappointing from a Tory viewpoint.

[Jake]

I quite agree with Eugene
"....this country is in CHAOS !!!!....and we are 4 % in front...should be 24. "

What is preventing the Conservatives from surging ahead ?

could it be the inability to distinguish their policies from NuShmalabour's

on major point of divergence and a very popular one in England
( which is the only part of the UK where it counts for the Conservatives )

would be to declare for an English Parliament within the United Kingdom .

- just like Scotland's ! .

[Cueball]

I have to laugh that people here get so frustrated the Conservatives have been ahead by quite a few points in so many polls for, what, over a year now? I mean, what, we're only like 2 years away from the next general election - if the Conservatives don't get to 45% next month THEY'VE LOST THE NEXT ELECTION FOR SURE!!!!!!!!!!! :p

I suppose they'd prefer to go back to the days of IDS polling under 30%? Maybe they're Labourites in disguise! :D

Then again, with their attempts to provoke "necessary change" amongst the Conservatives they might be doing Labour's job for them....

[Sally Rideout Baker]

We need to be well ahead not 4% but at least 14%.

A supply teacher has been sacked from a secondary school following complaints from Muslim pupils.

Andrew McLuskey was sacked from Bayliss Court Secondary School in Slough after a Religious Education lesson discussing the pros and cons of religion. Pupils at the predominantly Muslim school claimed Mr McLuskey said "most suicide bombers were Muslim"

But is this not the case? They are certainly not Jewish or Christian. Cannot teachers even tell the truth anymore in this age of Political Correctness?

Due to the Government’s pandering to minority rights Muslims have painted themselves into a corner.

The whole country is aware of this. But not the Conservative Party it would seem.

Blair is now the weakest PM we have ever had and this is the time any leader worth his salt should be making a killing.

If neither Cameron or Davis are willing to do it, please step forward the next man.

IDS would have been up to it I am sure.

[Andrew]

"In June 2003 Iain Duncan Smith had gained a 5% lead over Labour. We should have a 23% lead by now. "

That was a freak single poll. More pertinent were the norms, bottoming out at 27% in December 2002, only 4 points ahead of the LibDems. Even with all the dodgy dossier/kelly sagas, we were still typically behind. Most importantly, you had polls where <20%, and once only 14%, saw IDS as a preferred PM. He just doesn't fit the image of what the public expect in a modern leader (although he's doing a terrific job in his current role). That much was obvious from the start to anyone with basic political antennae.

Of course - the same thing could have been said about Howard. If the party was to disgrace itself by backstabbing a leader, it might have been more sensible to have someone electable ready in waiting.

As for Cameron: he's taken us from average -4 to +6 in a year, and that's the only relevant figure.

[Matt Davis]

HF you might well be right on the timing, but I do passionately hope that the current indications of the party having abandoned those would be popular policies are wrong and need to see some indication that we are really not going to follow a social democratic/nulab agenda if elected. And I think that the electors who would give us a substantial poll lead do too.

[Praguetory]

A very insightful chap said to me that the 30% of voters supporting Labour are solid. Those that will leave have already left. Don't blame the Tory leadership for us not reaching 40%. Do something yourself. Also, where we should be at midterm can't be compared to previous administrations because the fiscal situation means that Labour don't have any electoral rabbits left to pull out of the hat.

[jorgen]

Londoner: Aren't you a Lib Dem supporter Eugene?

Isn't that the same as a Cameroon?

[Alexander Drake]

Eugene, you want a significant turnaround in polling figures (as though there hasn't been one already in the last twelve months), but you have already answered why if there is to be a further significant change, it hasn't happened yet.

I think prospective first-home buyers are less likely to vote out a government who have priced housing out of their reach, than people already on the housing ladder that are knocked off it by higher interest rates.

So long as people already on the housing ladder feel that, by and large, they can keep up their payments, I don't think Labour will be dramatically knocked for six in the polls. If you asked voters in marginal seats whether they felt less prosperous now than they did 12 months ago, my guess is you wouldn't see a dramatic change. It seems moral outrage (cash for coronets, etc etc) doesn't itself secure a change of government.

[eugene]

''Aren't you a Lib Dem supporter Eugene?''

Now where did you get that from? I prefer to support Parties that have some point to their existence- so that make the Limp Dums a non-option. I am a card carrying , paid up Tory that would like my Party to sound and look a bit less like NuLab.

[Jack Stone]

Several postings say they are horrified the party is only four per cent in the lead.Personally I suspect they really mean there overjoyed as they want nothing more than the party to lose at the next eelction.
Well I have news for you deadheads. The party as the right leader, is heading in the right direction and will be in power after the next election.
Your ideas and your idols have lost the arguments. Tomorrow belongs to Cameron and the new modern and moderate Conservative Party not you lot of diehard right-wingers.

[George Hinton]

This is not very comforting news. Despite NuLab going from crisis to crisis and scandal to scandal we are not making the inroads that we should.
Is this as a result of DC's message which is not finding receptive ears, or are people simply saying that he is not consistent, therefore we will ignore him.
Or, is it more serious, that the country is just apapthetic and totally brassed off with the sleaze and politics and just doesn't care anymore?.
It may well be that NuLab is a busted flush and that the old labour supporters are pleased to see it go down the drain of history and are longing for a return to Old Labour. A return to the old style of class warfare, pure socialism, no third way, union domination, strikes, differentials, high taxation of those perceived to have too much money, nationalisation of major industry and transport etc, etc, et al. If that is so, then these people will never change their votes, which means that DC will have to aim his message at the floater. The people who have traditionally voted Lib-Dem as a protest, and the newer sceptic who votes UKIP because they are patriots and don't want to be ruled from Bruxelles/Strasbourg.
DC and CO need to look at the message and ask the voter what he wants.

[Cueball]

"As for Cameron: he's taken us from average -4 to +6 in a year, and that's the only relevant figure."

Well said Andrew - Cameron has done well for the Conservatives. He might even do better if the "Tebbitites" would stop trying to haul him back towards the Right and generally sabotage his attempts to make the party electable again.

[TomTom]

Only one poll that matters

[Tory T]

That's right and at the last real poll, Lab lost 319 council seats, we gained 316, and the Lib Dems gained 2.

Next up: May. Will be interesting to read the ukippers take on our results then.

[Gospel of Enoch]

Bambi made 5 pledges (educashun, edication, edducshon etc.) and hasn't kept 'em. Camerloon made one - EPP withdrawal - and hasn't kept it either.

No surprise you're still on 4% then.

[Martin Bristow]

It is disappointing to read comments such as that from Cueball.There is a tendency to paint "right wing" policy options as regressive and out of date.

What I would like cueball and his like to flesh is: just exactly which right wing policy he thinks are so regressive and wrong? What does he mean by dragging the party backwards in specific terms.

Can he please set this out for us with regerence to hard policy.When we have this we can have a proper debate instead of making decisions on the basis of what we believe electors want to hear.