ICM puts Tories on 40% (9% ahead)

I'll do the graphics in the morning (rushing off to dinner with John O'Sullivan) but there's an ICM poll for tomorrow's Guardian giving the Tories a 9% lead.  The Tory advantage is 40% (+3%) to 31% (unchanged) over a Blair-led Labour party with the LibDems on 19%.  The lead grows to 42% to 29% with Brown in charge.  The LibDems would drop to 17%.

8.45am update on 20th February 2007:

Comments

[Anonymous]

Hmm, interesting. With those figures for Brown that gives the Tories a 144 seat majority. With Blair's figures it's a 34 seat majority. Taken with a pinch of salt of course, I'd like to see a few more polls like that before I start believing them.

[Tanuki]

The only poll that matters is the one that closes at 22:00 on Election night. From people I talk to, they're crying out for a sight of some true Conservative leadership on tax-cuts and pushing back the intrusiveness of the State at all levels [personal, local, corporate, international].

[Matt Wright]

I knew the polls would bounce up for us. I have been canvassing for a while now and after Camerons speech on crime and families etc, the other day, the reaction on the doors shot up markedly. Keep it up, this is what works. As I'm writing this I just know that the usual whingers will re-emerge to post on this thread. Why? Because they don't want our party to succeed, they want to find every flimsy reason to promote their agendas and parties and destroy our party. My message to Cameron is keep focused and keep going, we will win,

Matt

[Jimbob]

Well said Matt Wright, and is 'Tanuki' actually trying to do a parody of the stereotypical anti-Cameron ConHome contibuter? If so it's very funny!

Obviously it's only one poll, but we're clearly doing better now than we've done for about 15 years, and have a real shot at winning the next election which I didn't dream was possible back in 2005. Well done Cameron, keep it up and don't let the bastards get you down!

[Ted]

Matt, agreed.
Just as there was a favourable reaction from those who listened last year when DC said much the same thing - derided by Reid & Labour as Hug a Hoodie and in turn picked up by the UKIP trolls & other sock puppets.
It's a good result from a respected pollster, still a long way to go as the election looks more and more like being in 2009 or 2010.

[Afleitch]

I'm with you on this Matt - a sustained lead in the polls since last May; something that hasn't happened since I was about 5. The truth is that Cameron's message is working and if you actually get out of your personal circle and talk to the nation- even talk to people on the streets of Glasgow for goodness sake we are beginning to be listened to again in parts of the nation which have not given us the time of day for thirty years or more. This poll is excellent news.

[Ted]

The (UK) Independence Party reaches the heady heights of 1% - an improvement on the last poll I believe.

[Drew SW London]

Calm down, dears, it's only an opinion poll.

The only consolation is that The Grauniad's journalists take it more seriously than grown-ups, and so that odd sound of trousers filling suddenly makes sense.

[houndtang]

Cameron should be birched across the bare buttocks for his failure to assume a 25% lead.

[Seth Gillette]

This is good news, and it is definitely in my opinion down to his speech on Friday (if the sampling was down since then of course).

It was a refreshing speech and it got a lot of media coverage.

'houndtang' damning Cameron for not having a 25% lead??! No one could have a 25% lead these days. Polsters have changed their methodology since the days of (hugely inaccurate) 40% Labour leads when Thatcher was PM.

10-12% is good enough these days. And DC has the party up by 9%. Very encouraging.

[Matt Wright]

I agree its only an opinion poll but with the following provisos:

1) A number of opinion polls show us a good degree ahead at last and its staying ahead.
2) Clear very positive reaction on doorsteps after Camerons intervention on families after shootings etc
3) Labour councillors are worried and the sensible ones are on the point of deserting a sinking ship.
4) Liberals look sidelined as we become the mainstream alternative with less need for a protest Liberal vote

Cameron, keep it up,

Matt

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Cameron : These kids don't have fathers and they already have no fear of the law.

Blair : Crackdown, rollout, longer mimimum sentences, horse, stable, door, bolted...

I know who i'd listen to.

To quote Josh Lyeman;
We've got the big Mo baby!

[Andy Stidwill]

This is what I've been waiting for: the magical 40% mark.

[Modern Conservative]

It's only one poll and it's true that the only poll that counts is on election day.

However ... thats what we used to say when we were stuck on 30% - feels much better saying it now!

o/t I hate it when people do this but will do anyway - why not pop over to Webcameron and vote for mu post "STD's, Teen Pregnancy, and Drinking" on Ask David - Thanks!

[Richard Carey]

Who am I to argue with Josh Lyman?

We do need, sounding a note of caution, to see this lead sustained and gradually extended, although I think that the comments above regarding the unlikeliness of huge poll leads in the modern political climate.

I'm looking forward to May - we all need to play our part in ensuring that we translate this poll and following ones into solid vote shares. That will give us something to point to in one of "the only polls that matter" - this would be a great platform for us, and colleagues at all levels need to show a huge focus on this year's council, Scottish & Welsh elections.

The "Brown leadership" question seems to be getting better and better for us. Iain Dale has just described the Brown succession on Doughty St as "like watching a car crash in slow motion". I wouldn't be complacent about Brown, he's going to play the stolid, heavyweight economist and try to dismiss us, but it's looking like there's a good chance it won't be enough on its own.

Matt's comments above about his canvass returns, although anecdotal on their own, suggest that we are actually doing better than we have in the past at getting key messages across to the electorate and getting them a genuine hearing.

[malcolm]

As always when these polls are published I say same thing. If only we followed UKIP we would be 90% ahead at least.Now that they've got to 1% we should be afraid, very afraid.
Editor, I'm not sure if you were name dropping with your talk of going off to dinner with John O'Sullivan but it didn't work for me as I've never heard of him! Hope you had a good dinner and thanks for bringing us this good news.

[Curly]

I hope someone within Her Majesty's Opposition is going to highlight the dreadful unfair advantage claimed by NuLabour with their sham system of harvesting email addresses to deliver policy direct to our inbox. I can think of nothing at present which increases my distrust of Blair as much as this!

[Curly]

I hope someone within Her Majesty's Opposition is going to highlight the dreadful unfair advantage claimed by NuLabour with their sham system of harvesting email addresses to deliver policy direct to our inbox. I can think of nothing at present which increases my distrust of Blair as much as this!

[Matt Wright]

Just to confirm reaction, others posted me tonight to say that canvass returns are showing a clear upturn after the Cameron speech on families. Whatever he did it touched the right nerve. Can we have more please?

Matt

[Richard Carey]

As always when these polls are published I say same thing. If only we followed UKIP we would be 90% ahead at least.Now that they've got to 1% we should be afraid

Figures I gather are not their strong point, Malcolm - but be careful, I'm sure they could do alot with that 1% if they applied a little, er, creative accounting to it...

[Robert Cooke]

Fantastic news people are sick of blair and brown and want change!

Another note of caution if you look at you gov before the last election howard had a lead of 40% on a couple of occasions

on the other hand the bbc have ignored it completly which suggests it may be more seroius than a blip

[Richard Carey]

highlight the dreadful unfair advantage claimed by NuLabour with their sham system of harvesting email addresses to deliver policy direct to our inbox.

I wonder if getting an email from Tony in response to the road pricing petition recently actually caused any of the respondents to this poll to change their voting intention - away from Labour?

[Raj]

For those of you that don't know, "tanuki" refers to a Japanese mystical racoon-dog that is very mischievous, often causing trouble. ;)

More interestingly is the Cameron v Brown question, which puts the Conservatives some 13% ahead.

[CDM]

The big question is will this be enough to persuade Labour MPs to consider someone other than Brown for the leadership?

[Josh]

All we need now is for DC to admit he took coke and we'd get to absolute majority!

[Arthur]

As a confirmed Cameroon I'm not getting too excited by this poll result. It could be followed by a bad one next month. It's the longer term trend that is encouraging.

We're going to have to fight hard against a slimy trashbag Labour Party that will do ANYTHING to keep power.

[Josh]

We're going to have to fight hard against a slimy trashbag Labour Party that will do ANYTHING to keep power.

Absolutely. If the Cons do win next time round, they can certainly take pride in that achievement because the current state of the system makes it an up cliff battle.

What I think is worth noting is that I don't think Labour are any worse off than they were during the last parliament. Sure the Home Office is a sham, but I remember scandals about that in 2000. Sure there is cash for peerages, but that is a pure politics issues, not concerning to most people, and not localised enough to Labour. When you add rewind now that Iraq is less salient than it used to be, I think Labour should not be defaulting poll points to the Cons anymore than they were a few years ago.

The Con progress is earned, not inherited.

[Philip]

Although only one poll, hopefully it is evidence things are moving in the right direction. Should 40% just about get us into a majority government?

I too wondered if DC's speech on the importance of marriage and children being brought up by their Mum and Dad may have helped. It seems that many voters are troubled by the brokenness of society, and (unlike the metropolitan liberal/left) instinctively know what is right. Perhaps they see in DC someone who understands what the long-term solutions might be. I recall a poll showed 80% of young people aspire to marry and have a family.

Also we mustn't forget the need for a tough stance on crime to show voters we understand their natural feelings of injustice when violent criminals go inadequatley punished. Yes we need both the tough approach (on punishments to deter and zero-tolerance policing etc), and the tender approach (doing what governments have in their power to do to help the rebuilding marriage and families).

[Seth Gillette]

A Josh Lyman quote is very apt at this time.

Also apt is a quote by Bruno Gianelli: "For too long we have hid in the corner...Not anymore. Time to have two parties."

I can't help thinking all the problems Labour have experienced over the past few months is nothing compared to the Unicef report which came out last week.

People suddenly realised Cameron's 'Quality of Life challenge' agenda is spot-on, whilst Blair's government looks stuck in a Thatcherite past.

While the gap between rich and poor gets larger, Blair lets unregulated gambling companies rake in huge amounts of money, so that their bosses can go to bars in the City and sprinkle gold dust on their cocktails (shown on Newsnight tonight).

What a turnaround!

[Daniel VA]

Just passing through, glad to see from this thread and a few others that things haven't changed much around here.

As always with an opinion poll thread, there are three precious items to be given out:

- Barbara Villiers Memorial Handbag (with matching stilettoes) awarded to Tanuki, for outstanding contribution in the field of negativity;
- autographed portrait of Simon Heffer awarded to Houndtang, for special achievement in the area of claiming (presumably ironically) the lead isn't big enough, although the frame crafted from ivory, mahogany, Galapagos tortoiseshell and other un-PC materials is withheld as a result of failure to include the mandatory claim that the lead would have been far greater with David Davis/Liam Fox/William Hague/John Redwood/Norman Tebbit in charge;
- salt dispenser in the shape of Neil Kinnock ('92 vintage) passed round to everybody else to take a pinch, as one always should with opinion polls.

Cue verbal assault from the apparent ConservativeHome newcomer Alex Forsyth, although he does so remind me of the old friend of this site who might be out clubbing on a Monday...

[Seth Gillette]

"The poll also follows the publication of a photograph of Mr Cameron dressed as a member of Oxford's exclusive Bullingdon dining club, which prompted suggestions that the Tory leader, an old Etonian, would be seen as a elitist toff who could afford dress up in £1,000 jackets."

Just goes to show - everyone loves Spandau Ballet!

[Shaun Bennett]

Already we can hear the anti-Tory response being formed. This is a very worrying poll for the Tory leadership; with only 40% of the vote, David Cameron would only just scrape together a 34 working majority and an incredible 60% will vote against him, showing that the Tory leader is failing miserably to increase his party's support amongst key sections of the electorate.
After 10 years in opposition and with a government now in complete breakdown, David Cameron should at least be looking at being in the high 90% mark in order to show that he has changed the party for the better in the eyes of the public.
With UKIP now on around 1% of the vote, Tory strategists are deeply concerned that it will cost them key seats on election night as their core vote deserts them en mass.
Later, Francis Maude will tell the party faithful that they must suffer another bout of public flogging in order show repentence for their past sins and to convince the electorate that the party is changing.
And the BBC will carry an exclusive report from showing that David Cameron is still failing to win over huge swathes of voters in Liverpool and Manchester-which as we all know are the key marginal constituencies that will decide the result of the next general election.

[Andrew]

Disgraceful, with John Redwood in charge we'd be at least 273% ahead in the polls.

[Opinicus]

I hope the Editor remembers to pick up that name. He will probably want to use it again later. At least we now know that Malcolm has never read the Telegraph and is a Labour/LibDem troll.

My UK Elect shows that the Brown figures give us a 17 seat majority. Now, if Yougov come up with the same result, I will have to congratulate CCHQ

[Scotty]

Excellent poll from the pollster I trust the most!
Having achieved a sustained lead in the polls and now starting to hit 40%, I just want to say well done to David Cameron, the shadow cabinet and all those hard working activists.
It is only one poll and the next task will be to maintain that lead over Labour in the coming months as we drift into uncharted territory, with the Dour one at No10 and steering the domestic agenda from the front rather than hiding behind Tony and other cabinet ministers!

[Shaun Bennett]

I think that Malcolm was being not entirely serious, right?

[CAWP]

Will no one else give out a big, awed, intrigued "Oooooooooooooh!?" at the mention of dining with terrific old John O'Sullivan?

I wonder what Tim makes of his new book. Hopefully Doughty will cover it. 'Tis very good.

[UKIP@HOME]

It was only 2 weeks ago that UKIP members were working themselves up to an orgasmic frenzy and the UKIP trolls were spamming this site hailing Nigel Farage as the new messiah after he had delivered polling victory after a YouGov poll gave UKIP 5% support.

As one UKIP members said "the only poll that counts is the poll on election day at the ballot box"

This article from The Sun sums things up nicely:

"UKIP are having a huge publicity drive at the moment and are making great play about the handful of Conservatives who have joined forces with them. Leader Nigel Farage has been on TV almost every day and is flirting with the idea of changing his party's identity to the grandly named Independence Party. For all this. In last week's council by-election at Nuneaton and Bedworth they polled just eight votes"

[Steve]

This is indeed good news, Cameron deserves credit for repositioning the party. This poll does reflect the 'mood' i detect when talking to people. A few more of these and the pressure mounts on NuLab to react, everyone seems to think Brown will be a liability for NuLabour, so what do they do? Hopefully Miliband stands and wins, he is a much better opponent for Cameron than Brown.

[steppenwolff]

An amazing rebuke of the government in today's Sun editorial:

"TONY Blair raised hopes on healthcare in 1997 when he warned: “Two weeks to save the NHS.”

Ten years and billions of pounds later, we’re still waiting.

We don’t need the Tories or Lib Dems to raise the alarm.

We can hear it from the bureaucrats who implement government policy — and the doctors who must make sense of the chaos.

In a devastating survey, top Whitehall mandarins say health supremo Pat Hewitt is not up to the job of reforming the NHS.

Yet they in turn are rated as efficient by barely one-third of their own civil servants.

Meanwhile, three-quarters of doctors say billions in taxpayers’ cash has brought no significant improvements.

Shocked ministers may scoff at these findings.

Just as they dismissed evidence that Britain has one of the highest burglary rates and is the worst place in the developed world for children.

“We are learning from our mistakes,” they mumble.

That won’t do. Healthcare is not a sterile political debate — it is a matter of life and death.

Labour was elected to put right the things they claimed were wrong.

So far, on gun crime, schools, hospitals, pensions and transport they have failed. "

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2007080292,00.html

[Sarahty]

It just shows that we were right to push for more green taxes and to beat Labour on more funding for the NHS as that is what the public wants not the damaging tax cuts demanded by the right-wing loons.

[Alex Forsyth]

Hmm, interesting. With those figures for Brown that gives the Tories a 144 seat majority. With Blair's figures it's a 34 seat majority.

Actually two informal calculators, the UK Polling Report and Electoral Calculus, estimate that with Mr Brown in charge voters might give the Conservatives a lead that could give them a majority of more than 50.

The standard state-of-the-parties figures suggest that the Conservatives could hope to become the largest party at Westminster, but short of a majority.

The usual whistle-to-keep-your-spirits up orgy of self-congratulation from the resident Camerloons, all busy twittering to one another like canaries on speed

Most of the Realists and Traditional Tories are keeping their powder dry for the next downturn.

If I were a Camerloon, I'd wait to see what really happens when Brown takes over.

Not long now.

[Alex Forsyth]

Hmm, interesting. With those figures for Brown that gives the Tories a 144 seat majority. With Blair's figures it's a 34 seat majority.

Actually two informal calculators, the UK Polling Report and Electoral Calculus, estimate that with Mr Brown in charge voters might give the Conservatives a lead that could give them a majority of more than 50.

The standard state-of-the-parties figures suggest that the Conservatives could hope to become the largest party at Westminster, but short of a majority.

The usual whistle-to-keep-your-spirits up orgy of self-congratulation from the resident Camerloons, all busy twittering to one another like canaries on speed

Most of the Realists and Traditional Tories are keeping their powder dry for the next downturn.

If I were a Camerloon, I'd wait to see what really happens when Brown takes over.

Not long now.

[Alex Forsyth]

Yes the ignorance of the all-knowing holier-than-thou Malcolm re John O'Sullivan does tell us an awful lot doesn't it?

When John was Parliamentary sketchwriter on the DT he delivered an excellent address to the Wessex YCs Summer School at one of the Oxford colleges.

If then turned out he had come without a car and I ended up taking him back to London squashed up in the back of my Spitfire.

I think he's based in Washington these days.

[ToMTom]

asks voters to think about politics in a different way from the standard ICM question about voting intentions, which only names parties.

So this poll is not comparable to any other because they have ignored the parties.....

[Alex Forsyth]

So this poll is not comparable to any other because they have ignored the parties.....

Good point Tom Tom.

Basically, this poll demonstrates a further collapse in the LibDem vote, one of the two main causes of the present Tory lead.

When the LibDems get themselvs a go-ahead leader it will be a whole new ball game.

[freedom]

And the BNP your true opposition, is air brushed out of the figures I noticed.

Surprising as each time a BNP candidate stands they almost everytime knock the tory candidate into last place. and on 2 occassions in the past 3 weeks have secured over 25% of the vote.

So you can follow your tails in delight because you got this poll lead, but wait until the elections.

[Graham D'Amiral]

The poll is excellent news, Interestingly the 11th month in a row that ICM have recorded a conservative lead.

Worthy of note is that when Gordon Brown and Menzies Campbell are mentioned both their parties support falls by 2%. creating a conservative lead of 13%

As ever getting worked up about one poll is a mistake, but certainly this gives reasons for encouragement.

[Gareth]

Excellent post D V-A. You're missed around here!

[Giles McNeill]

Okay it's a great poll. And I'm sure that we are all happy to see our party doing so well in the polls.

We should however not lose our head by becoming giddy on the euphoric wiff of a victory in the air. We have a long way to go and a mountain to climb, but the general direction of the polls over the last two years gives us cause for hope.

[MH]

Anyone who believes this poll is a true reflection has clearly been on one of Dave's admitted or yet to admit substances.

[James Maskell]

It is way too early to be cheering about this poll. Weve had polls like this before and I think some people here are jumping the gun somewhat.

Could the people who post on this forum baiting the traditionalists please stop? Im looking at the people at the top of this thread. Its childish. A poll can be interpreted in a variety of ways. Just because someone disagrees with you doesnt mean you should stoop to childish taunts.

[Joe]

Firstly, the BNP are not a credible threat to the Conservative vote, despite the way those on the left try and present Tory voters. The BNP generally only ever poll well in relatively poor, white working class areas: the labour heartlands.

Secondly the recent 40%+ poll is unlikely to be down to recent speeches on the family and law and order, other wise Howard/Hague would have been through the roof since 1997....

Keep up the good work "Dave"

[Editor]

I second Gareth's tribute to Daniel Vince-Archer's post!

[Petersfieldsolicitor]

Whilst accepting the "still got a mountain to climb" and "too soon to celebrate" comments surely it is important for the morale of the Conservative "expedition" as a whole that we cheer a little bit when we meet key mile stones like this - even if there remains some distance left to climb?

Purely as an anecdote I have been coming across an increasing number of non-Tory's who are quite convinced that Brown will never win a General election and will be a one term wonder.

[malcolm]

I would also like to welcome you back Daniel ,where have you been?
Oh and Alex Forsyth, or whatever your real name is, should we ever meet you will find out how 'holier-than-thou'I really am.

[Ted]

James
I think the baiting was aimed more at UKIP visitors & those whose posts are more concerned about disruption than at Conservatives like yourself who engage in real debate over issues.

[simon]

Yes, the poll is 'good news', but i remain sceptical due to the fact that i think the next GE's turnout will be the lowest of modern times. What that will do the results is anyone's guess!

[MH]

I agree with Simon. No doubt the Conservatives are ahead of Labour, but I have always had a suspicion that Blair going will draw a lot of the poison for their core voters and the public. I may be wrong, but I expect Brown won't be the disaster many would anticipate. As for turnout, I think 60% will be way optimistic: I wouldn't be surprised if it's 55% or so.

[simon]

Yep, MH's guess to the probable turnout is my feeling too- between 55-60%. If the local elections in England have a WORSE turnout than last time, we have a serious problem. Then we have the Scottish Parly elections too! O Joy!

[thatcherite]

"UKIP@Home" seems to be a BNP troll like "Freedom".

The BNP cannot stop boasting about its by-election performance in Nuneaton and Bedworth. If he was a Tory, he would be embarassed by the awful Conservative vote in a ward that decided control of the council in a target seat.

I suggest that the Editor bans this BNP imposter.

[thatcherite]

"UKIP@Home" seems to be a BNP troll like "Freedom".

The BNP cannot stop boasting about its by-election performance in Nuneaton and Bedworth. If he was a Tory, he would be embarassed by the awful Conservative vote in a ward that decided control of the council in a target seat.

I suggest that the Editor bans this BNP imposter.

[Ted]

thatcherite - no mention of the BNP in UKIP@Home's posting only the abysmal performance of UKIP, your post therefore suggests its not UKIP@Home who is the imposter....

[Hardeep Panchhi]

If when the next election comes, voters only see the BNP as the only voice against mass unchecked illegal immigration then we are in trouble. we need some robust policies such as Howards at the last election

[Gareth]

Yes Hardeep, because that worked so well last time round didn't it?

[Serf]

The Con progress is earned, not inherited.

I am not sure I agree. Sleaze tends to have a cumulative effect, such that after the drip drip of stories over a period of time, voters get turned off, in a way that doesn't happen with the odd scandal.

That said, its obvious that offering a credible alternative does huge damage to the government, and anyone who has played their part should feel happy with themselves.

[malcolm]

As I'm sure you already know Gareth,all the polls at the time indicated that our immigration policy was indeed popular so I'm not sure why you made your last comment. I very much hope that it will be repeated at the next election but not every single day and certainly not at the expense of equally important policy announcements.

[David Lindsay]

Don't believe a word of it. The aim of opinion polls is not to measure public opinion, but to influence it. In this case, it is to influence it in favour of making Labour feel compelled to choose an Oxonian Leader instead of Gordon Brown. PMs are allowed to have an Oxford degree, or no degree: that is The Rule. And Brown falls into neither category.

Anyone who really does think that polls are there to measure public opinion should have stopped paying attention to them 15 years ago, when they mis-predicted the 1992 General Election by more people than there were living in the United Kingdom at the time, or whatever it was.

This latest one, like all of them these days, has had to be recalculated to exclude the constant 34-37% that says, not that it "doesn't know", but rather that it is determined not to vote next time. What if, between now and then, a movement were to arise which was capable of taking even half of those missing votes?

And where was this polling actually conducted? No doubt in the South-East, where the Tories already hold most of the seats anyway, having re-captured most of their 1997 losses there. A fat lot of good that has done them. Meanwhile, they are in a worse state than ever in Scotland, Wales, the North and the Midlands, where their loss of first many and then most of their seats first nearly and then actually cost them office in 1992 and 1997 respectively; and in the West Country, where their battle against the Liberals makes the difference between a majority Government and a hung Parliament at every General Election. But will anyone have been polled in Scotland, Wales, the North, the Midlands or the West Country? No, of course not!

[Yet Another Anon]

In Mid Term it's not that big a thing, as for differences between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown as leader, it wasn't that long ago people were saying that Labour would be doing better under Gordon Brown, and before that that it would be doing worse under Gordon Brown, when Gordon Brown is PM then it will start to become clear to people what they think one way or another about Labour and him. Doesn't look much different than it has been for 10 months now, getting 40% in a mid term opinion poll is a far cry from getting even approaching 40% of the vote in a General Election, if the actual figures for Labour are true then they are not actually that far down on the General Election - if it was going into a General Election with such figures then that might suggest something big happening - in the 1989 European Election Labour got 42% of the vote and Conservatives 34% and yet the percentages in the 1992 General Election were roughly reversed.

[Sean Fear]

"As I'm sure you already know Gareth,all the polls at the time indicated that our immigration policy was indeed popular so I'm not sure why you made your last comment."

I still treasure an article that Mary Ann Seighart wrote just before the GE in which she discovered that voters in Putney hated our "racist" (actually very moderate) immigration policy. This was shortly before Justine Greening took the seat on a 6.6% swing.

[Andrew Woodman]

It's interesting how much is being made of this poll on various news services being a lead a feature on 3 different radio news broadcasts I heard today. It's really being talked up which of course is good news. People are now starting to believe we can win.

[Scotty]

David Lindsay, did they make up the poll ratings for the SNP, Plaid, BNP, Greens and UKIP when they did a break down of "others" into named parties?
I think that you will find that the most respected pollsters were very accurate in the 2005 GE and many lessons were learnt from 1992.
In fact IIRC one of the pollsters involved did pick on the actual result, but then dismissed it because it was so out of sync with the other pollsters at the time.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/02/20/great-polling-moments-january-13-1995/

[malcolm]

I don't think you know how polling orginisations work David . They don't poll in only one area of the country.I think you'll find that the Conservative party actually won the 1992 election.

[Ted]

In addition to Scotty & malcolms comments I think you will find the Conservatives are regaining ground in Wales. Still work to do in the Midlands and North East & North West and Scotland will be a very difficult area but progress overall not bad.

[Scotty]

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/02/20/great-polling-moments-january-13-1995/
Sorry, this is the correct link (I hope)

[Ted]

In addition to Scotty & malcolms comments I think you will find the Conservatives are regaining ground in Wales. Still work to do in the Midlands and North East & North West and Scotland will be a very difficult area but progress overall not bad.

[Scotty]

I give up, the whole link shows up in the comments box but disappears when it appears on the thread. Not very technical so unable to produce a shorter link.

[Gareth]

David's highly tuned conspiracy antennae, suggest he has been watching too much discovery channel.

[eugene]

Nice to see the good poll- just a warning!

Maggie Thatcher was many 10s of points behind at the end and John Major went on to win the election in 92. A new leader does cause a substantial bounce. I just hope the Party wastes no time in exposing Brown to the public as the dry, incompetent, colourless, sneaky fraud that he is.

In the meantime, brace yourselves for a Brown bounce.

[yogring]

The polls look good, but I feel no elation. The prospect of a blue labour government depresses me as much as a new labour government. One and the same I'm afraid.

[Ted]

yogring, looks like a very depressing future for you then.

[Andrew Morrison]

By failing to promise tax cuts, and by standing up to big business, David Cameron has lost the support of the Thatcherites. At least, the ones he had the support of to start with.

By smoking cannabis, pretending to be liberal, and not making any big statements on cracking down on crime, he will lose the support of the social-conservatives.

Whether that means the party will lose votes or not is a different matter. Current incumbents, I predict, will not be punished by the party supporters/ sympathisers by voting for someone else out of protest at Cameron's Conservatives.

Where the candidate is challenging an incumbent of a different party, then things will be different. I don't believe the party will make many big inroads except where the candidate themselves show themselves to be exceptional.

The coming election will be one where it is the candidates themselves who win it for us, rather than one where the leader creates momentum which lets the candidates sleepwalk their way to success.

This is a positive thing; perhaps at last we won't have political parties throwing good money after bad and facing bankruptcy at the end of it.

[Tapestry]

Beware the minor parties. Deselect europhiles wherever possible. Win the next election and end Blair era delusion politics.

[Alex Forsyth]

Deselect europhiles wherever possible

Good advice, Tapestry.

Why not start right at the top?

[jorgen]

scotty: I give up, the whole link shows up in the comments box but disappears when it appears on the thread.

Put the link in like this: <a href="http://xxx.com">XXX</a>

[Scotty]

Thanks jorgen, will try that next time.

[Yet Another Anon]

A new leader does cause a substantial bounce.
The Conservative Party was recovering from 1990 on, Labour's election campaign in 1992 went badly and their economic policy at the time just didn't do it for large numbers of people, in fact the Conservative Party could have won by a larger margin and at the end the Liberal Democrats were fast pulling support away from Labour and it could easily have ended up with a similar result to 1987. Margaret Thatcher indeed probably would have rallied support more in the 1991 Gulf War, maybe not as much as the Falklands factor, but there is no doubt that John Major did not enthuse people much, although Margaret Thatcher was seen as controversal and divisive she motivated debate and won arguments.

[Yet Another Anon]

In the meantime, brace yourselves for a Brown bounce.
I expect continuity in the main and probably continuing government difficulties through into 2008 but with a recovery of Labour support in 2009, if there are no sharp changes people will no doubt say that this is a sign that Gordon Brown has gone down badly, but people realise that he has been as much behind policy development and implimentation (more indeed in terms of implimentation) as Tony Blair has.