YouGov: Tory lead up to 7%

This morning's YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph shows the Tory lead up from 5% last month to 7%.  This is in line with January's Populus poll which gave Cameron's Conservatives an 8% advantage and ICM which put the Tories 6% ahead.  The poll will also provide some relief for Ming Campbell following end-of-year surveys that suggested that his party was beginning to tank.

YouGov's fieldwork was completed last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - before many of the latest Home Office failures were revealed.  Nonetheless the survey found approval for Tony Blair at an all-time low.  Just 21% of respondents approve of the government's record and only 26% are satisfied with Tony Blair's performance.

The Telegraph worries that the growth in smaller parties is preventing the Tories from rising above the critical 40% level: "In a year that Labour's support has dropped by nine points, the Conservatives' ratings have been static. With the Government in crisis, why have the voters not yet flocked to David Cameron, as they once did to Blair?"  It's partial answer: "Even if the Government's torpor continues indefinitely, the public will still demand reasons to vote for the Tories as well as against Labour. Mr Cameron should start to reveal more of his private political passions to a public crying out for trustworthy, energetic, and above all different, political leadership."

Comments

[Tory T]

As Mike Smithson tells the Telegraph, "Grow up".

This poll is our best YouGov figure since the election. Contrary to the analysis quoted above, the YouGov figure for "others", as David Herdson points out on political betting, has been slashed by 3 points from 16% to 13%.

[Robert McIlveen]

The "critical 40% level" is itself based on an absence of small parties (or indeed much of a third one) so don't get too het up about it. It is likely that the "others" will lose votes when an election come, especially if it's a close one.

Good poll!

[Annabel Herriott]

Right Robert. Where is "Veritas" now??

[Ron]

If Cameron is more interested in coalitions with the LibDems than with all the disaffected Tories in UKIP, then the game is truly up.

[HF]

Tory T, very true. "Others" (BNP,UKIP,Green etc) have slumped by 3 percentage points which is in reality a loss of almost 1 in 5 of their votes.

An indication that headlines about a few grumpy old men are not indicative of what is happening on the ground.

The real movement is between Lib Dems and "Others". More a case of the protest vote floating between the 2 groups?

[Dave Bartlett]

"Mr Cameron should start to reveal more of his private political passions to a public crying out for trustworthy, energetic, and above all different, political leadership"

I understand Mr Cameron is giving a speech on islamic extremism today, it'll be ineresting to hear his suggestions.

[Soupy Twist]

The grudging attitude of the Telegraph does nothing to enhance its credibility.

What I'd really like to see is a regional breakdown -- if, as I suspect, we've stalled in the North and are motoring in the South, then pandering to UKIP will do very little to address the real weaknesses in our support.

C'mon CH, focus on the real issues!

[Ian Lewis]

While these polls grab the headlines, they are not actually that useful. The regional polls (I think I saw one here on Yorks. recently) are more relevant. Any sign of more regional polls being conducted?

[malcolm]

One has to question the sanity of no less than 21% of our fellow countrymen who still believe that Blairs' administration still has 'a good record'.

[CDM]

The Telegraph is becoming tiresome. I thought they recently appointed a Cameroon as the new Editor? Or does Heffer now pull the strings?

[Editor]

Quite CDM. I think they have been a little unfair today. I thought I had detected a more sympathetic treatment of the Cameron project from the news editors and leader-writers but it was not evident today.

[Michael McGowan]

The comment in the Telegraph is by Tony King, a respected commentator who has provided such analysis for years. The idea that he is a Simon Heffer clone is the sort of ridiculous raving one has come to expect of those who cannot come to terms with the continuing disintegration of the ramshackle coalition called the Tory Party.

[Zorro]

The real news recently has been the fact that Cameron isn't winning them over in the north. They can pile up his votes like Saddam Hussein in Pinko London for all I care. Much good will it do him.

Anthony King is sooooh rght:

Evidence still fails to suggest that HMS Tory is steaming to victory.

On the contrary, the battle remains more evenly joined than ever before, according to YouGov's latest monthly survey for The Daily Telegraph.

The Conservatives cannot sail past the crucial 40 per cent mark, and voters abandoning the good ship Labour are turning in as great numbers towards a variety of other parties as towards the Tories.

YouGov's latest survey puts the Conservatives on 38 per cent, the same as a year ago.

44 per cent of voters say if they had to choose, they would opt for a Cameron-led Conservative government compared with only 38 per cent who would go for a Brown-led Labour government.

However, the Tories' lead among respondents answering that question is only six points now, compared with 12 points before Christmas.

The Tories are on a hiding to nothing. An increasing number of former Tories - me included - are going to make sure Cameron never hi-jacks the leadership of this country the way he hi-jacked the party.

[Zorro]

A friend of mine was taught by King at I think Essex University.

He was well known to be Shirley Williams's boyfriend and so he's a Lib Dem - you know the kind Cameron thinks he's going to attract.

Interesting that King doenst think much of Cameron.

[CDM]

Sustained poll leads aren't normally "a hiding to nothing". What would Zorro suggest to improve our poll rating?

[Zorro]

What would Zorro suggest to improve our poll rating?

Sack Dave

[TomTom]

The biggest single political grouping in Britain is the Abstention Party and it sells no peerages, pays for no billboards, and has no interviews.

It will still be the biggest party at the nexte election

[G U (GivenUp)]

Green Dave still can't get a real lead, despite a government that is makeing Harold Wilson's total shambles look, a picture of probity and competence.

Only the utterly deluded, can take pleasure from such a pittiable lead, against such non competition.

[malcolm]

'Green Dave still can't get a real lead', 'The Tories are on a hiding to nothing'. These are our best poll figures for almost 15 years and at the same time the numbers for the minor parties appear to be in decline. I would humbly suggest the people calling themselves 'Zorro' and 'Given Up' are about as deluded as it is possible to be.

[Opinicus]

To win the next election the Conservatives have to show the electorate that they will be better than Labour. Labour is now as hated as we were in 1995 but they have the sense to change their leader.
They need different policies that are easy to understand and look different. Incremental change, new targets, saving waste, reducing bureaucrats are all disbelieved. Copying Labour at this time of its greatest unpopularity is simply stupid. Its an argument that would have been valid in 2001 possibly in 2005 but it is holding back our vote in 2007.
38% for the Conservatives with the political situation today is a badge of shame, not of rejoicing.

[TomTom]

Green Dave still can't get a real lead, despite a government that is makeing Harold Wilson's total shambles look

Oh and what year was that then ?

[Alex Swanson]

"These are our best poll figures for almost 15 years"

That's nothing to boast about.

This is the worst government we've EVER had. Any decently-led Conservative Party should be around at least 45%.

[John Irvine]

Absolutely agree Alex.

The problem is that there now is hardly any difference between the views of Cameron and those of Blair.

No wonder the party inspires so little confidence.

[HF]

Alas some familiar names have woken up from ukiphome.

Truth is that the protest votes have left Ukip,BNP, Greens in this poll and gone back to the Lib Dems. But I thought it was all about Europe that brought them to ukip?

On these figures Tories will gain 106 seats, be the biggest party, but be just 9 short of an overall majority.

[Matt Davis]

Professor Anthony King is one of Britain's foremost academics and an acknowledged expert on elections. To try to rubbish him, as some on here are now doing, just doesn't wash; he isn't a Heffer clone, he has no personal political axe to grind and he has every reason to wish to preserve his reputation for objective analysis. So what he has to say today is largely a question of fact not of spin, unlike the small but vocal pro Cameroon lobby on Conhome who continue to ignore reality in the very Blairite hope that spin can be substituted for substance. Professor King is making some serious and stark points for all you New Labour with a Blue Rosette supporters and that point is very clear.For every move further to the left that Cameron makes we lose conservative voters and do not necessarily replace them with ex LibDems or Labourites who, after all, now have a choice of all three major parties offering them much the same agenda.At a time when support for Labour is evaporating we should be seeing regular and considerable gains in our support as a result. That just isn't happening and there is now a genuine danger that the wheels are starting to fall off the Cameron project and that electoral success is coming no closer.This is deeply depressing.

[Peter Coe]

Matt, you're absolutely right. EVERYONE has an intrinsic personal bias - especially anyone as interested in politics as Professor King is.

The question is whether they are objective - and given that in the 1980s, much to Labour's annoyance, he was making precisely the same point about their anaemic poll ratings, most of us accept that he is.

What these silly little snipers are saying is that they'll only regard a commentary on a poll as impartial if it's written by a card-carrying loyalist Tory!

On the issue of minor parties, again, those who are expecting a slippage of their support to the Tories come the time people actually have to choose a government need to think again: the bulk of the surge for minor parties has come from disillusioned lefties, not disillusioned Conservatives.

In last year's London elections, the Tories did well not because their vote rose (it went up just 0.1% over 2002, though there were individual examples of Tory advance) but because Labour's vote collapsed to minor parties - the Greens in inner London and the BNP in the suburbs.

Now I agree with anyone who says that minor party support WILL slide when people come to cast their votes; I just think it will benefit Labour more.

[Adam]

Ha! More delusional blatherings from CH contributors. That Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard couldn't move beyond 33% appears to be totally forgotten. No, we should be on 45% - with no actual evidence as to why.

Then throw in how we need to be radically different with detailed policies in order to win against a government on the rocks. This conveniently forgets that Thatcher swept to power in 1979 with one of the most policy-lite manifestoes in history and wanting to heal the nation bringing in together St Francis of Assissi-like, and Blair swept to power in 1997 promising to stick to Conservative spending plans for 2 years and not raise income tax.

[Sean Fear]

Actually, I think the minor parties' vote will stick with them next time, Peter. As more minor party councillors get elected, so it boosts the credibility of the party concerned, and weakens the argument that voting for them is a wasted vote.

In a seat like Barking, for example, one could hardly make the "wasted vote" argument against the BNP.

[Michael McGowan]

Adam, so you recommend that we all vote Tory on the basis of a policy-lite manifesto aiming to capture centre-left votes and trust Dave because he is so obviously authentic, just like Blair? Can't you just accept that a lot of people with centre-right leanings no longer believe that there is much difference between the Tories and Labour/the Lib Dems and that they are all self-serving cabals largely run by chancers who simply want to get their snouts in the trough? Power is not the Tories' divine right especially as they have been such a useless opposition. Shrill denunications of undecided voters are not going to stop them voting for minority parties or more probably just not voting at all.

[clive elliot]

I'm inclined to think we need a lead in the region of 15%, say 45% to 30%, at this stage, in order for it to be large enough to be sustained right through the Labour uplift that is bound to occur as we near the election. Governments nearly always improve their ratings close to the actual election. Also in recent years the Libdems have generally polled better in the election than they were doing a few years before.

A bigger Cons lead would also help in causing Labour to panic and thus split.

So I really agree with some above who say that, given the pitiful recent record of the Govt, we are not as far ahead as we ought to be.

The trick for DC, and it's difficult, is to pick up support from the soft centre while doing a bit as well to enthuse more traditional Conservatives. Maybe it's too soon to start spouting detailed policy yet, but I think we could do more talk about principles and approaches, especially dwelling on policy areas where we are at odds with the Government rather than going on endlessly about topics where all parties basically agree.

And we need a bit of clear blue water on policy, otherwise the election just becomes a television beauty contest, and no-one can know who'd win that!

[jorgen]

So, trying to get all the socialist voters by adopting socialist policies and having a Blair-look-like leader is still not giving more than 38% of the votes. It is time to change to Conservative policies and get all those who have left the Conservative Party back.

[Soupy Twist]

Oh dear the UKIP trolls have really lost it.

It seems that Dave is a disaster because he isn't 20% ahead in the polls.

Have they ever considered the fact that this is the first time we've faced a Labour Government that isn't embroiled in outright economic crisis?

Brown is undermining this country's competitiveness but this is a slow process and we still enjoy a record run of quarters without a recession.

Against this background Cameron is doing remarkably well.

In any case, the real question for the trolls is this -- if Cameron really is such a pinko traitor to all thing sound then why isn't UKIP doing better in the polls?

[malcolm]

Exactly what socialist policies Jorgen?

[UKIPinvasion]

Oh dear. Coming to the end of a disaterous Blair regime, disasterous home office stories by the day, a tired 3rd term Labour party.

And the Tories still can't 40% of the votes!

As soon as Labour get their new leader and with it all the publicity, that 38 will sink like a stone.

The only question is will Cameron be ditched before or after the election? The longer he is there, the less likely the Tories will ever make a come back.

Scotland hates you. Wales despises you. The North have contempt for you. Camerons project Blue Labour has failed and failed miserably. Fix it or die.

[Hug a Druggie]

Dave is doing a marvellous job. He deserves the full support of all of us.

[malcolm]

Brilliant post UKIP Invasion. You're absolutely right of course , if only we had a decent leader not everyone would hate us and we be at least 90% ahead in the polls. Have you ever thought about trying to get a job as a Campaign strategist? We really need people like you to tell us where we've gone wrong.

[CDM]

Sometimes, the analytical insight of UKIPers leaves me speechless. We elect Cameron as leader, and begin to acquire stable poll leads, the likes of which haven't been seen for 15 years.

How do we get them even higher? Sack Cameron. It's pure genius.

[jorgen]

malcolm, assuming that will argue that there are no policies yet, you would be right. However, Cameron has given plenty of indications of what his policies will be, both directly and indirectly.

[TimberWolf]

Don't take any notice of anything Malcolm says. He is a Conservative who is only here to cause trouble.

[malcolm]

So which socialist policies or indications of policies' are you refferring to Jorgen?

[malcolm]

You're absoltely right Timberwolf. Sorry! Perhaps I should spend my day trolling on UKIPhome?
It's a good thought though. Dear UKIPers,you should get rid of Farage. If only you'd made Kilroy-Silk your leader you would be 50% in the polls not 3% or whatever absurd figure it is.Do you think they'd fall for it?

[Graham]

I have stated this else where but will repeat myself. David Cameron should be commanding polls of 50% let alone 40%. The Labour party have done everything possible to shoot themselves in the foot, ankle, knees, groin. Apart from going on a killing spree they couldn't do much worse, yet the conservatives only just have the lead.

Why? because the lilly livered approach of David Cameron he has no leading qualities, he has no policies he is just struggling to keep together a few select hard core conservatives, truth is there is majority, not minority of people. Who don't want to be part of a federalist Europe and if we must be part of it, for it to be fought over and not given away with a wimper. Also a society in which Britishness doesnt have to be taught but is part of society from top to bottom. Not a place where muslim law will supercede British law, and where we will become a minority in our own country. This is why the nationalist parties will do so well this and the fourth coming years. As the main political parties sit in thier surburban Ivory towers.

[Lucy]

How do I get a Uki phone? Are they better than ordinary phones?

[Scotty]

I know that the Conservatives are doing well in the polls by simple looking at the increased number of UKIP trolls, who continue to try and park their wreck of a party on this site.
Just visit some of the UKIP sites and observe the lack of poster's! But best of all just read some of the comments about how important they are to the political scence, concern if anyone goes off the broken record or their suspicions that their sites might be infiltrated with trolls. Hilarious.
I think that we have to accept that they get lonely and come here in the hope that someone will listen to them.

[jorgen]

malcolm, I think I have found two things I agree at least partly with Cameron about. But since you ask (apologies, editor, if you think this is off topic but I think it is relevant to explain the 38%): Cameron does not go actively for a low tax economy, a small state, strong control of our borders limiting immigration, that poverty does not mean "relative poverty" etc. etc.

You should read some of Heffer's articles and you will know. All the articles, I have read are clearly expressing Tory policies, when they are best.

[malcolm]

So which socialist policies etc etc Jorgen? You 'll have to to do much better than reciting old articles from Heffer.

[MH]

I would be quite interested in a sense of what % of the electorate is going to even bother voting. If it is 60% plus, I'll be stunned. Frankly, the present Government is proving a massive turn off after the false dawn of 1997 and the Conservatives are really still nowhere. Ho hum.

[Zorro]

Well I'm a UKIP supporter and if there are any others posting here I'm sure they will be proud to say so.

No Malcolm old bean. Your problem is that these boards are full of angry disaffected Tories, and you just can't hack it.

Neither you nor Boy Wonder will know where what's left of your party stands until Brown takes over, and I think you may be in for a surprise.

He'll be a new face and you all know how having the new but not very pretty face of Boy Wonder gave you a boost.

[Hug a Druggie]

That is not very nice Zorro. Cameron is doing a wonderful job and we are all very proud of him overcoming his disdavantaged start in life.

[Gunther]

It's not a Uki phone Lucy. They were talking about a website called Ukiphome, where all the extreme right wing politicians who are not in BNP live.

[UKIPinvasion]

Did you learn that technique from the Grauniad Grunter?

[TomTom]

I have stated this else where but will repeat myself. David Cameron should be commanding polls of 50% let alone 40%.

I think that is a fair comment. This Govt is living-dead but can stumble on until 2010 because it hopes things can improve rather than seeing an Opposition with a 20% lead to give them no hope.

I just wonder if we will get a Lab-Con Coalition like the Germans

[Zorro]

It's not a Uki phone Lucy. They were talking about a website called Ukiphome, where all the extreme right wing politicians who are not in BNP live.

Oh and what about your own Nasty Party types who are on here expressing homophobia today and no doubt racism the rest of the week.

Don't ask me. Ask Justin Hunchcliff who is apparently one of your own people.

UKIP does not believe in racial discrimination. The fact that the Tories called themselves the Nasty Party proves just one thing.

They're the Nasty Party.

[Praguetory]

Aside from these positive polls, the most recent local byelection results are astoundingly favourable. I've only got five results to "cherry-pick" from but in Oxfordshire the Labour share of the vote fell from 27% to 11%, in Hucknall we won a seat for the first time since the authority was created in 1974 (!) and in Cumbria we got a 5% swing. Nationally, these results would give us an 18% lead. Our campaigning enthusiasm has never looked so buoyant. Roll on May I say. At this rate, we'll obliterate Labour.

[Graham]

Prague Tory.

I really do like your enthusiasm but there will be elections in Scotland and Wales also, and it is more then likely that NO Tory shoots will be flourishing, You will be lucky to have the popular support of a minor party.

I will continue to state this again and again, If the Conservatives wanted power again, actually listen to the people. we want hospitals which cure not kill, schools which educate not ones which spawn devils. All in all we want a system to be proud of, but as stated before there is so many bottom feeders in the system that no one really wants to improve anything apart from thier own bank balances.

The greatest victor in any election could be the apathetic and or the extremist. Which would only be surpassed and beaten out of site if a box was included for NONE OF THE ABOVE.

[Yet Another Anon]

Dear UKIPers,you should get rid of Farage. If only you'd made Kilroy-Silk your leader you would be 50% in the polls not 3% or whatever absurd figure it is.
He didn't exactly achieve much with his Veritas Party did he, rather over rated including by himself.

As for the poll, opinion polls especially ones nearly 2 years into the parliament where one party has been in government for some time have differed enormously from actual results in a General Election so many times in the past, they can reflect fashions rather than voting opinions - even if you were to replicate a voting booth and to let everyone in the country vote in it you would not necessarily get the same results because governments save the goodies until towards the end of parliaments, people may express all kinds of doubts and annoyances and yet they will know that a survey is a survey not an actual election - if they vote in a survey in a different way from that they do in a General Election they know that it will not actually directly effect the government unlike in a General Election and all kinds of worries about what the opposition would be like in government and that maybe they should stick with the devil they know than the ones they don't come to the fore.

Otherwise this year it seems to have been a bit up here, a bit down there and sometimes unchanged and in fact nothing to particularily spectacular either way.

[Martin Bristow]

The You Gov Poll confirms what I felt for sometime.There is little enthusiasm for any of the major parties and any lead that we have is "very soft".

Unfortunately we are making little or no headway outside of the South East and London in particular.The Cameron agenda is poupular with the dinner party cliche in Notting Hill.The appeal of Green Politics is however very limited in the North and Midlands.

I did not vote for David Cameron but in common with many accepted his leadership.The singular failure however to speak to my concerns is alarming me what is wrong with the list below?

A comiitment to Lower Tax
A non Federalist Europe (withdrrawl from EPP)
A criminal Justice system that punishes the gulity rather than making the criminal a victim.
More Grammar Schools to promote social mobility.
Wholesale reform of Public Services and use of the market where appropriate.
Explicit Fiscal support for the traditional two Parent dual sex marriage.
Control of Immigration of all kinds.

I consider the above to be key Conservative positions. All of them resonate with the voters .It baffles me as to why Cameron avoids articulating our position on these issues.

It appears to me that instead of this positive agenda he has accepted the Labour charge depicting us as the nasty party.Faced with such defeatism we will never break through.In a year when Labour has melted away we have moved up only 5 ponts on a General Election standing.The apologists for the leadership can not surely believe that this is good progress?

[Josh]

This party needs wingnuts like Labour needed Tony Benn during the 80s.

I think DC could be doing better in some things, particularly the poverty trap, but he's still better than anyone else we've got. I happen to like John Redwood based on his recent 18DS appearances, but we'd be through the flaw if he was leader. I like having DC as leader and John Redwood in a senior position.

Signed, soon to be first time Tory voter. (DC is winning small victories.)

[Graham]

Martin

Your list of concerns is that of many people add in a few more concerns such as the hospital crisis, and making work pay, and not pay to work thru taxes, and you would have the formula for a great fighting force.

There is one true point that Labour picked up upon about Cameron, He is a cameleon he changes his tact to please the colomunists of the day, we still await any true policy, and what he does stand firm on only upsets his own party, such as his stance on Europe.

If anyone cares to look at the YOU GOV poll in full. it would make good reading for the Tory throng. in the age range most liekly to vote. 55 plus it stands like this.

TORY 40%
LABOUR 28%
LIB DEM 15%
OTHER 18%

Now there is few things to take from this, the older the person the more entrenched thier view point. each person solid to thier voting intention, so for the tories to be so far infront here is a good sign. but as ANON pointed out, polls are polls votes cast are what count. but it is still a good indication.

What people do need to look at is the others section, which is greater then Lib Dems, Made up of scots and welsh but 7% UKIP and 3% BNP as stated before people are that diseffected with politics that they protest to the extreme, but this 10% could easily be swayed back to the Tory fold. with a sensible but strong policy on Europe and Immigration which puts Britain first.

And being sensible and strong does not seem to be in Camerons armoury and needs to be sorted before Brown grasps the nettle and spins as much lies as possible to become the supposed saviour of this country and gives everyone false hope to entice them to vote again for Labour as they did in 1997 with the chant of THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER.

[Mark Fulford]

Farewell all. The negativity on this site is just too much to be bothered with.

[jorgen]

Martin: what is wrong with the list below?

Absolutely nothing. It is what the Conservative Party until now has been about.

Malcolm: You apparently forgot to read my first paragraph. The second paragraph re Heffer's articles was meant to guide you towards indepth descriptions of good Conservative policies so you would learn what they look like.

[Scotty]

Sorry to see you go Mark, and I might follow soon if the level of bile and vitriol spouted by some poster's continues to drown out balanced debate. It is getting harder to find the notable regulars who contribute interesting and thoughtful comments on a range of subjects.

[Martin Bristow]

I don't think you can get away with that Scotty.Not every critique of Cameron is based upon bile.I am deeply concerned and disaffected.Why are we not speaking to the real concerns I mentioned in my earlier post?

We are failing to make real sustained headway electoraly.Even more worrying for me is our acceptance of the charge that we were the nasty party!!

The DC leadership seems hellbent on apologising for our past and promising to ditch truly conservative solutions.There is an acceptance of New Labour's high tax and spend Economy with all that that implies for individual liberty and the size and scale of the state.

Please convince me that things will be different.

[Graham]

Scotty/Mark

I have found the unresponsive nature of some people to fall into the catagory of if anyone dares to not aggree with me I dont want to know.

What you must understand everyone has there differing views. you running round with fingers in your ears and going la la la wont stop them from thinking it. and just makes your own point weaker as you dont wish to stay and fight your point.

So have a stiff upper lip or run choice is yours.

[malcolm]

No I didn't forget anything Jorgen. I am still waiting for you to justify your ludicrous comment that Cameron is following a Socialist agenda. So far you have not attempted to do so.
Mark, I wouldn't let the wingnuts this site attracts bother you too much, there are still many intelligent voices here and the quality of debate in areas like 'Your Platform' remains very high.
YAA,only you could have taken my comment about Kilroy-Silk seriously.

[Matt Davis]

In response to Adam and others who are trying to suggest that our current poll standings should be a cause for great celebration and prostration at the feet of the mangod Cameron, I would wish to remind you, very forcibly, that we are basically flatlining in those polls and flatlining at a point that will not win us a General Election outright.

[malcolm]

No Matt, it is not a cause for a huge celebration because as you rightly say it would be unlikely that we would have an overall majority if these figures were replicated at a general election. But it is also true that these are the best poll figures for 15 years, that little more than 12 months ago we were behind in the polls, and that the views of many posters on this thread defy all logic or reason.

[Martin Bristow]

Malcolm, but what about the context? Labour is imploding why can we not surge over 40 0r even 50% in the polls against this backdrop.

[malcolm]

Martin,we are close to 40% and could probably achieve that again.Could we achieve 50% again? Is that a realistic prospect? Mrs Thatcher wasn't even close in 1979 after the winter of discontent,the economy in a total mess etc. She wasn't close again in 1983 after the stunning victory in Falklands and a Labour party led by Michael Foot coming out with an extremist manifesto and a number of Labour councils adopting sub-Marxist policies.
You say that Labour are imploding but more than 1 in 5 of our countrymen still appear to think that Labour 'have a good record'. That is the context that Cameron has to operate in.He has to deal with the UK as it is not as maybe you or I want it to be.

[matt wright]

I notice the usual drivel from Ukippers on this thread. Our party is consistently ahead better than for many years and indicative of the new more positive and sensible approach by DC. Yes it would be great to be further ahead and we must work for that as we need a clear majority lead. However the public are much more cynical of all politicians (thanks largely to Blair) and changing the perception of our party is a slightly longer term project than some realise. At the moment we have attracted back some of those who went to New Labour and some who drifted to the Lib Dems. We are becoming a mainstream centre right party again and we must not be blown off course by a very loud but very small minority. DC keep at it,

Matt

[Martin Bristow]

Malcolm you can not decide how to act solely upon polling returns.It is worth remembering however that in her third general election Margaret Thatcher polled more votes than her first.Tony Blair's support has reduced by some 4 millions from his first to his third election.That is no ringing endorsement for New Labour.

Coming onto their ground accepting their agenda and failing to be distinctively different is unlikely to gain many converts.This is why we cannot break through the 40 % we are indistinguishable in too many key areas from New labour.This will cost us dearly

[UKIPinvasion]

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23383499-details/Tories'%20anger%20as%20Cameron%20backs%20Blair%20on%20gay%20adoption/article.do

Many Tories now leaving in droves and joining UKIP.

UKIP welcome all Conservatives of principle, who believe the state to butt out on such issues. An organisation should be able to decide what is best for a child, in accordance with many peoples beliefs, held for many years. It's not just the fact their religion (Christianity, remember that)required it. Many people want Mother and Father for their child, if the worst should happen.

Of course organisations that believe otherwise should be allowed too and then people can decide which organisations to use according to their own beliefs.

The State now owns your children and Blue Labour back this fully.

Your party is a disgrace. You should be ashamed.

[Andrew Woodman]

This all makes depressing reading. We're 7 points ahead with hardly any policies and reading this you would think we were 10 points behind. I would like to see the regional breakdowns and for us to be hitting 40% + (if that's possible in modern day politics) but lighten up some of you. We have people listening to us for the first time in years.

[matt wright]

Andrew, you are right. There seems to be clear stages in the process, the first of which has been a willingness to listen to us and the first shifts back to us by some of the "swing" voters. I think it is now a balancing act which I think DC is handling well. That balance is to gradually reveal more practical ideas without giving away detailed policy and without just returning to shrill old-style solutions,

Matt

[Dave Supporter]

Guys. We here in UKIP think Dave is the best thing to have happened to the Tories ever and fully support him.
Surely you agree?

[Yet Another Anon]

It is worth remembering however that in her third general election Margaret Thatcher polled more votes than her first.Tony Blair's support has reduced by some 4 millions from his first to his third election.That is no ringing endorsement for New Labour.
Then again the Conservatives in 2005 barely got more votes than in 2001 in which election they actually got fewer total votes than Labour got in 1983, in 1987 Labour made quite a significant comeback in terms of votes and yet only made a limited advance in terms of percentage vote and seats, there is no reason to suppose that the future of this government will go the same way as the 1979-97 Conservative Government, governments can become more popular or oppositions less popular and this has happened in the 19th century in the UK and in the 20th century in Japan and Sweden, in the 1950's the Conservative majority increased in 2 successive elections and Labour's vote declined. In the 1945-51 government Labour got it's highest percentage vote ever and highest total vote ever in the election it lost in 1951 despite it's vote having fallen in 1950.

[Alexander Drake]

I'm surprised you think that, "Dave Supporter" - unless you're planning to rebrand UKIP as "The Victor Meldrew Party". Check out Mike Smithson's article today on Political Betting. You might find it interesting.

[Alex Swanson]

"more than 1 in 5 of our countrymen still appear to think that Labour 'have a good record'. That is the context that Cameron has to operate in."

It's his job - and the job of all Conservative MPs - to persuade that 20% otherwise. Most of them don't even seem to be trying. I'm fairly sure that I, an ordinary citizen, have had more words published in the national press criticising this govt over the years than most Tory MPs.

And can we have less of the if-you-criticise-Dave-you-must-be-a-UKIP-troll please. It is neither true nor constructive.

[Andrew D]

Some people on here are just blind to the truth. Some say we should be at up to 50% in the polls!!! When on earth was the last time the party was at 50%? it must've been in the 60's surely, maybe the 50's.
Cameron has done better in the polls than any Tory leader for 15 years and some people still say he should be ditched?
Some of you may not like this, but times have moved on since Thatcherism came to the fore. Not enough people want to re-elect a party which runs on a Thatcherite manifesto.
We have got to move towards the centre and (more importantly) stay there. This is what Cameron is trying to do and this is why we are no longer stuck at 33% in the polls.
We have more to do, David Cameron himself keeps stressing this, but we are now (finally) in with a realistic chance of chucking Labour out of government at the next general election.
Don't mess it up for the country by dividing this party and making it, once again, unelectable.

[Zorro]

Sorry Andrew but your party's divided already. Already your editor and others are VERY upset about DC's decision to support Blair in depriving the churches of their rights of conscience.

When the average age of Tory members is 71 and a tiny minority of fanatical sayanythingtowin careerists is desperately trying to pretend that the Tories are something other than a clapped-out Nasty Party, you're doomed to disappointment.

We in UKIP will dictate the terms on which we are prepared to assist your lame duck party. If Mr Cameron won't play ball you can wave goodbye to your dream of ministerial limousines which, after all, is one of the main things which motivates members of principle-lite The Nasty Party.

[Martin Bristow]

However much people may dislike Zorro's comments there are issues here.In looking and sounding like a party that has waved goodbye to Conservative principe we are risking a significant Haemoraghing of support.This will not be replaced in sufficient number by disconteted Liberals or soft labour support, to win an election.

The centre ground in politics was redesigned not by Blair but by Thatcher.To argue that we can not go back to Thatcherism misreads the situation.Thatcherism remains in all the key changes in our daily lives:People owning council houses,Trade Union democracy and ongoing privatisation within Public services are notable examples.

Blair has forced Labour to accept this new consensus.He has effectively bought the silence of the Labour Left by overseeing a massive march of the state into our social rather than economic lives.Diversity ,Political correctness and bureaucrtaic and useless public services that serve employees rather than customers have, sprung up under New Labour.

Not to mention a victim culture making the criminal without guilt and failing to protect the innocent.Why can we not attack on these fronts? our leadership either does not share the analysis or thinks nobody buys it, which is it?

[Yet Another Anon]

He has effectively bought the silence of the Labour Left by overseeing a massive march of the state into our social rather than economic lives.
PPP's are government bureacratic interference writ large although through a particularily wasteful method that hands massive wads of money over to private companies from the state.

[Andy Stidwill]

Bottom line: Cameron must hit 40% this year - and stay there.

[Rebecca]

...and no higher

[Tom]

"How do I get a Uki phone? Are they better than ordinary phones?"
They certainly are - they allow you to speak freely and not be hampered by career constraints......

[matt wright]

Had to laugh at the UKIP suggestion that the average age of Conservativce members meant it was clapped out compared to them! I wonder what their average age is and indeed isn't the truth that the average age of all parties is very high? One things for ceratin we won't reduce that average age by looking backwards,

Matt

[Martin Bristow]

Why is looking backwards seen as essentially undesirable.The essence of Conservatism is reflective and pragmatic just because certain ideas are perceived as "modern" does not make them correct or desirable. Matt and many of the Cameron supporters would do well to remember this.

Principle is important in politics without it we may as well all descend into the sewer alongside Blair and his clan.

[matt wright]

Martin, In a way I agree with you. I do not think looking backwards is always undesirable, indeed to know how to look forwards sometimes involves looking backwards to understand things first. However I feel strongly that there is a minority in the party that revel in the past and looking backwards to the exclusion of being open minded and innovative. All too often they attempt to stop the party making progress. Some of the public have unfairly perceived that this minority are representative of all of us. Every new age needs a fair degree of new solutions and the above reasons are largely why I support DC. I do not do it blindly despite those who try to dismiss people who support the party leader. When I see the bile and nastioness with which a loud minority try to run down DC, I feel even more determined to support him and to ensure there is change,

Matt