Tory 'northern problem' underlined by YouGov poll of Yorkshire voters

A YouGov opinion poll reported in the Yorkshire Post - and paid for by Eurosceptic businessman Paul Sykes - shows that the Tories are "flatlining" at 29% across Yorkshire - the same percentage won at the last General Election.  The poll will confirm the fears of those who believe that David Cameron's first year was too targeted on the concerns of southern voters and that his A-list addressed the gender and ethnicity of candidates but not the need for candidates rooted in northern communities.

Shipley's Tory MP Philip Davies told the Post:

"It's a wake-up call that proves the messages that might work in the Home Counties don't necessarily work up here and reaffirms my view that we need to be talking more about everyday concerns like crime and immigration, as well as the environment."

Related Platform link: Jonathan Scott asks 'Is Cameron's message being heard in the North?'

Comments

[Robert McIlveen]

This is alarming stuff - there are loads of marginals here which we simply have to win to get a majority. In the big cities (especially here in Sheffield) we have been eclipsed by the Lib Dems and are fighting with the Greens to be the third party on the council.

We have to find a way to get a positive reason to vote Conservative heard, rather than rely on people getting fed up with Labour because we are, in many parts of Yorkshire, not even in second.

(I should add we're working hard to rectify this, of course!)

[Tory T]

On the contrary, I think you'll find that Yorkshire seats have overwhelmingly (wholly?) selected white, local men to fight them. According to your theory, this should mean that we were doing much better in Yorkshire than we are. Are there any women or BME candidates at all selected in Yorkshire (that weren't there before?)

The 'pick white local males and you'll do better' crowd have something to answer if these figures are accurate

[Adrian Owens]

Our local council by-election results across the Pennines in Lancashire have been poor too.

We can do well in the north, as we in West Lancashire have proved. Low tax and a no-nonsense approach to crime are key.

[Ian]

No surprise at all.

Cameron's appeal is primarily to the metrosexuals of the M25 ghetto and their sad little PC world.

He certainly doesn't "play" round here.

[Tam Large]

Dave's message could be put over more clearly in the north - indeed everywhere - if we actually knew what it is... "I'm like Tony but nicer" isn't good enough. No wonder the down-to-earth and straight talking Yorkshire folk aren't impressed.

[Denis Cooper]

Surely the same thing would apply here as with Scotland? They won't vote Tory, so they should be dumped - given their independence, deported, whatever. And I bet there are statistics to show that they're all scroungers and parasites, as well.

[Tory T]

Two observations:

1. Clearly we need to get up there and campaign hard in the North. This I think most people knew. We have been attacking Labour hard on crime and immigration lately, let's hope it bears fruit. I think the recent interest rate rises with more to come will also have a seismic effect - many people are hocked up to the max just to own a house.

2. If we are doing not so well in Yorkshire/North, our national poll leads mean we must be doing fantastically in the Midlands and other key battlegrounds.

[Ian]

"The 'pick white local males and you'll do better' crowd have something to answer if these figures are accurate"

Utter nonsense.

Do you suppose that ordinary votes in Yorkshire, Hampshire, Gwent or Norfolk are aware that the party has somewhere managed to get an ethnic minority female selected?

Or that they would care?

[TomTom]

The 'pick white local males and you'll do better' crowd have something to answer if these figures are accurate

Get more candidates like Philip Davies who really work for their constituents and you could have Yorkshire seats.........if you can overcome your Southern prejudice against him being White and Male - he is simply a damned good constituency MP

[Klamm]

A much missed and uncommented feature of the 2005 election was that we polled a lower % of vote in 2005 than in 2001 in key regions - North West, North East, Yorks and Humber and East Midlands. There has been no movement since, obviously.

The fact that we are flatlining is hardly a surprise when the whole Cameron brand is based on nice upper/uppper-middle class values as you would expect from people who went to Eton/Oxbridge. It has no resonance with normal people in the North who think he is a fake.

I know many commentators only want northern people in northern seats, I think that patronises us in the North. What we are looking for are normal real people who move in or of course, are already here. The North has moved on culturally from the days of Geoff Boycott (only Yorkshireman can play for Yorkshire)

[Tim Geoghegan]

Isnt the problem with much of the North is the huge expansion of the public sector payroll in these area's since 1997 ! Together with Gordans expansion of welfare Which has been proportionaly much greater than the South and London which have a larger private sector.

[Sean Fear]

The Lib Dems are also struggling, on 15%, down 5% on 2005. That should be helpful for us in York Outer. Labour are down 2%, which isn't actually that much different from their performance nationally.

The big shift is to "Others", now on 15%. I think we can all guess which "Other" is polling strongly in Yorkshire.

[adam]

The 'pick white local males and you'll do better' crowd have something to answer if these figures are accurate.

This is accurate. The candidates at elections are the face of the party and if voters see the same types of faces as before the end result will be the same. The associations have to changes otherwise we'll get stuffed in the north as we always do.

[Robert McIlveen]

We are making changes up here - we recently merged into one city association in Sheffield (and it's happening elsewhere too) and we've had much more effort from CCHQ lately, with Oliver Heald and Eric Ollerenshaw coming up regularly to help and push us.

So there is some positive movement, but we do need to work damn hard to revive.

[Sean Fear]

We'll need to see how the "white local males" perform first, before jumping to conclusions.

My view is that either, we're picking up a fair few votes from Labour and Lib Dems, but losing a similar number to the BNP, or disillusioned ex-Labour and Lib Dem voters are switching directly to the BNP.

On these figures, the BNP must be quite close to 10% across Yorkshire, and probably about 15% in West Yorkshire.

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

Immigration is not an issue in places like York Outer and Thirsk. Perhaps we should tailor our messages to different constituencies (in keeping with party policy)?

[Simon Mallett]

We have to start talking about issues that Northern voters (in fact most voters)are interested in - crime, tax,jobs, transport,immigration etc and importantly show that we will actually make a difference in government.

Practical policies will win support.

The choice of Candidates is a fringe issue.

[Sean Fear]

Yes, I think that's right Justin. It'll certainly be an issue though, in some of our target seats like Keighley, Dewsbury, Calder Valley, Colne Valley, and Wakefield.

Unfortunately, I think there's a real risk in Dewsbury that the BNP could push us into third place.

[Al Gunn]

Leeds North West has selected a female candidate, Julie Mulligan.

I am of the opinion that if you campaign the hardest for what the local electorate want, you will get elected. I believe that that is how Philip got elected. Gender especially is a red herring.

Labour has failed in the North. A successful electoral strategy must surely be close to what David Cameron is doing: explain why Labour is failing and talk *positively* about turning things around.

[Soupy Twist]

What is Philip Davies on about? At the last election we talked about nothing but immigration and actually went backwards in the northern regions.

So far the menu of options is a short one:

1) Headbanger stuff about immigration etc
2) Notting Hill stuff about environment etc

Could I suggest that we need some more options?

[HF]

So this report was commissioned by Sykes to advance his case that he wants Europe talked about more. He has in the past been the main financial supporter of UKIP. So he decided what questions were asked.

We then have a quote from "Shipley's Tory MP Philip Davies" (a BOO supporter) with an attack on the direction that the party is going in..

How come if Philip Davies is so wonderful that he is not part of a revival of Tory fortunes in the North? He looks to me more likely to be part of the problem as a semi-detached member of the conservatives who uses up his time in the media in the north to talk about europe rather than the subjects that the northern voters are interested in? He reinforces the pre 2005 image of the Conservatives that we are obsessed with Europe.

Mr Davies did get elected in 2005 but achieved 2% less vote share and 200 fewer votes, than the Tory who came 2nd in 2001. Davies actually won because the Labour vote fell 6%. He was lucky, that was clearly not due to him convincing more people to vote Conservative.

[Angelo Basu]

Is immigration really a big issue in the sorts of seats which we should win in the North, or just in a few? The sort of language and policies which might deter voters switching to the BNP in some seats would be precisely the sort of thing which will ensure that we don't win back any support from Lib Dems and Labour in other seats where the idea of the BNP or anyone pandering to their views is as attractive as a cup of cold sick.

[Michael McGowan]

"Davies actually won because the labour vote fell 6%". In that case, he was in the same position as a lot of newly-elected Conservative MPs in 2005. So what point are you making and why do you think it will be so different next time around?

[Henry Mayhew]

I've had dealings with Philip Davies. An impressive Churchillian guy. Absolutely no nonsense. I am sure policies that address the issues of local voters is the key plus some celebration of northern 'can-do' culture. What is the role of the North going to be in the London-based city-state that the economy is becoming? Answers please - and make sure they involve lower tax on business and support for export.

[Sean Fear]

I don't think it would be worth our while trying to outbid the BNP on immigration, Angelo. But there's no doubt (from the rest of the poll data) it is a very big issue in this region, and will be so in quite a few of our target seats.

Our problem here, I think, is that people who are really annoyed about immigration (a fair chunk of the Yorkshire electorate) are increasingly likely to vote BNP than Conservative.

[Denis Cooper]

Labour has failed in the north of England, and in Scotland and Wales as well.

Before the 1997 election they were talking a lot about the "north south divide" created under 18 years of Tory misrule. Then a couple of years later Blair suddenly announced that the reality was a lot more complicated than that, eg:

"Blair: North-South divide 'a myth'"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/550520.stm

But their approach has revolved around putting more taxpayers' money into areas which are lagging behind the average, when usually it would be better to take less money out in the first place by cutting business tax rates to attract investment, increase employment and eventually increase tax revenues.

So the correct Unionist response to demands for a lower rate of corporation tax for the whole of Scotland could be a UK-wide scheme for reducing business tax rates in smaller areas, maybe areas like cities or counties, wherever per capita GDP is significantly below the UK average.

[jonathan mackie]

The issues in the north are not dis-similar from those elsewhere in the country. Culturally things are different and we must understand those cultural artefacts and respond accordingly.

Suggesting that people who have worked all year round to pay for a fortnight in the Canaries or Flordia should feel guilty about flying is electoral suicide.

Suggesting that wind farms should be the energy staple and erected all across rural Cheshire, Cumbria or Yorkshire is equally crazy.

Appearing to support the PC consensus that immigration is at all times an ineluctable economic good and sod those on low wages who are feeling the brunt of over supply in the labour market is also not likely to endear us to our target electorate.

[TomTom]

Isnt the problem with much of the North is the huge expansion of the public sector payroll in these area's since 1997 !

Not really - the problem with Yorkshire particularly is that is a major manufacturing centre, the main centre for printing companies, and horrbly constrained by disastrous transport links and congestion.

As for HF - I don't know where you live but I think you'll find that the Conservative candidate in 2001 was a lemon and also in 1997. That a 24-year old researcher for Gordon Brown could take Marcus Fox' seat from the Tories showeed just how duff their candidate was that he could not manage a 2% swing.

Philip Davies has done very well for his constituents, and the only way that seat is held is when LibDems don't vote Labour.........it was always that way which is why the Councillors are LibDems not Conservative.

The Conservative Association in this part of the world is dead - Philip Davies is the ONLY Conservative MP in West Yorkshire

[michael mcgough]

"He was lucky, that was clearly not due to him convincing more people to vote Conservative."
No but a lot less drifted away than might have done!
Just look at the Bromley by-election result HF if you want to measure Tory votes lost.

[Sean Fear]

I don't agree about the Lib Dems, Tom Tom. We actually do well in local elections in Shipley (43% of the vote in May 2006).

[HF]

Re Michael McGowan, the average Tory vote went up 0.6% but in Shipley it went down 2%. So Davies performed worse than average yet "won" the seat. Across the UK the Labour vote fell 5.4% close to the figure in Shipley.

[TomTom]

I don't agree about the Lib Dems, Tom Tom. We actually do well in local elections in Shipley (43% of the vote in May 2006).

Posted by: Sean Fear | January 17, 2007 at 12:53

Funny because I am a voter and I don't see it, so you must be satisfied that the Conservatives can only rule in Leeds and Bradford with LibDems propping them up and last year the swing was from Con to LibDem

[Richard]

Cameron needs to find out what motivates the voters in Yorkshire and ensure that the local Party puts more emphasis on issues that are of concern to that area. If Cameron is as conservative as he claims to be and this becomes clearer in the coming months I suspect that may help fortunes to change.

[HF]

TomTom describes the Conservative candidate in 01 as a Lemon. He fought at a less favourable time yet did 2% better than Davies.
So what is Davies? A Lemon+?

Sir Marcus actually lost the seat in 97 to the same Christopher Leslie (lab).

[TomTom]

Shipley as a Council Ward is a subset of Shipley as a Parliamentary Constituency and May 2006 Elections were on the Rule of Thirds - May 2007 is on the Total Council

The turnout in Shipley Ward was 48% and that was the highest turnout in any of the wards comprising Shipley Constituency

[TomTom]

Yes HF and Chris Leslie was detested as a Govt Stooge who sold out his constituents - but the only Conservative who could recapture the seat was Philip Davies.....obviously you preferred Chris Leslie. Where do you live ?

[TomTom]

He fought at a less favourable time yet did 2% better than Davies.

But he did NOT get elected - Davies did.

Maybe Cameron will do better than Howard and still be Leader of the Opposition

[HF]

The broader point here is that in order to win in the north there has to be a cohesive united approach.

Divisive comments from Philip Davies are wholly inappropriate and illustrate one of the hurdles that has to be overcome.

He needs to remove the beam in his own eye first before complaining about a splinter in someone else's.

Reading Michael Ashcroft's research into the last election should be on Davies bed time reading.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Francis Maude highlighted that one of the priorities for this year is to do more in the North on the latest Challenge the Chairman interview on Tory Radio.

[TomTom]

The 2005 general election
Votes Share %

Philip Davies, Con 18,608 39.0
Christopher Leslie, Lab 18,186 38.2
John Briggs, LibDem 7,018 14.7
Tom Linden, BNP 2,000 4.2
Quentin Deakin, Green 1,665 3.5
David Crabtree, Iraq War, Not In My Name 189 0.4

Conservative majority: 422
Time of declaration: May 06 2005 02:48
Turnout: 68.5 %

[Sean Fear]

Tom, Tom, wrt Shipley, last year the Conservatives won 4 out of 6 council seats, and hold 10 out of 18 in total, compared to 2 for the Lib Dems. The vote shares were Conservative 43%, Lib Dem 20%, Labour 16%, BNP 10%, Others 11%.

[ANON]

YouGov survey data.
CANNOT SEE ANY HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION?
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/SYK070101001.pdf

[TomTom]

Part of Shipley Constituency

Wrose

Craig BNP 1,022
Herdson Con 738

[TomTom]

Tom, Tom, wrt Shipley, last year the Conservatives won 4 out of 6 council seats, and hold 10 out of 18 in total, compared to 2 for the Lib Dems. The vote shares were Conservative 43%, Lib Dem 20%, Labour 16%, BNP 10%, Others 11%.

Posted by: Sean Fear | January 17, 2007 at 13:09

Sean - only 33% seats were up last year - this year it is 100%. The Council Leader has changed and Chris Hopkins is a PPC - so who leads the Tories now Margaret Eaton has stepped down ?

I know one of those 4 Conservative Councillors - she is useless so might be a one-term wonder. She probably won because the Lib Dem Councillor put up his wife as a candidate so 2 of our 3 Ward Councillors would be married to each other

The Council is frankly useless

[TomTom]

You should also recall that the 2005 General Election in Yorkshire had COMPULSORY postal voting with lots of fraud

[Cllr Keith Standring]

HF @ 12.22pm "How come if Philip Davies is so wonderful that he is not part of a revival of Tory fortunes in the North? He looks to me more likely to be part of the problem as a semi-detached member of the conservatives who uses up his time in the media in the north to talk about europe rather than the subjects that the northern voters are interested in?

Are you providing quotes for the LibDem FOCUS bulletin? Are there any depths to which a CCCO Cameroonite troll will not descend?

Philip Davies is a fine young MP, who is excellent in his constituency work and fearless and principled in pursuit of issues nationally and internationally. Most untypically, he has consciously chosen to stay a backbencher so as to better resist the arm-twisting of the Whips, and is so totally lacking in any desire for self-aggrandisement that he will neither be bribed nor bought. This man doesn't have a past, only a bright future. We need more MP's like him, not less.

[Matt Davis]

For God's sake Tory T stop trying to perpetuate the total myth, albeit one popular around posh metropolitan dinner tables, that the electorate give a stuff about the gender or ethnicity of the candidates. They vote for the party that promises them the things that they want their government to do. It is true that in some limited areas with very high populations from a particular ethnic minority group a local candidate from that same community will do better. But since the whole A list farrago is not producing those kind of selections anyway that is patently not a strategy the party is following unfortunately. If we do badly in areas like Yorkshire it is the party leadership and their choice of emphasis and their choice of policy topics and placement within the political spectrum that must bear all responsibility and rightly so. Absolute nonsense you're spouting to be frank.

[Al Gunn]

The Conservative vote, like all the mainstream party votes and turnout in general, is on the decrease in West Yorkshire. In that context, losing 0.2% of the vote in Shipley is actually very impressive.

My only reservation with using Shipley and Philip as a model for Conservative success in WY is that Shipley has little in common with urban or even suburban constituencies. Since our target seats up here tend not to fall into the second category and never the first, this reservation is a small one.

Only the BNP have done significantly better at the polls in WY in recent years. I would like to see some independent analysis of how well the BNP will do in this years local elections. There are well placed to take several seats on Leeds City Council.

An appropriate Conservative response to the rise of the BNP must be predicated on the acceptance that immigration is not seen to be under control and that community relations are being severely compromised because of it. Look at recent events in Swindon, for example, if recent voting pattern here are not enough.

Our policies and our presentation, surely, have to reflect that.

[Sean Fear]

Tom Tom, you may be right about Bradford City Council being useless; I know very little about them.

However, this year is not an all out election. All the Met boroughs had all out elections in 2004. This year, all the candidates who came second in that year, come up for re-election.

[Sean Fear]

Philip Davies' performance in 2005 was actually marginally better than the average for West Yorkshire (a drop of 1.8%, compared to a drop of 2.2% overall).

[John Coles]

Jonathan Sheppard wrote:
""Francis Maude highlighted that one of the priorities for this year is to do more in the North on the latest Challenge the Chairman interview on Tory Radio.""
So that's all right, then.

[Steve]

Spot on Matt Davis. Frankly the internal navel gazing and obsessively PC attitude of some in this party amaze me.

[John Coles]

The problem is that Mr Cameron is a leader from a social minority. He is upper/middle class, schooled at Eton and Oxbridge, his outlook is that of a metrosexual and his experience of the ordinary workplace is limited. Little of this would matter if he could be clearly seen as a Tory, but this is not so. Consequently people outside the magic circle of the M25 wonder what on earth they would get if they voted for him.
Answers on a postcard please to CCHQ.

[Roger Helmer]

I've never been to Shipley, but I'm told that Philip Davies is doing a great job as a constituency MP. I know him personally, and whether you agree with his views or not (I do, as it happens) you have to admire his courage in standing up for what he sees as the interests of his constituents, even when those views are not flavour-of-the-month with the Party establishment.

It's a bit patronising to suggest that people in Yorkshire don't care about Europe. They have as much right to self-determination as anyone else, and as long as Britain remains in the EU, they're not getting it.

[TomTom]

Sean

Bradford local elections
One third of Bradford Council is elected each year, followed by one year without election.

I had no idea how this worked and thought one year we could get rid of the whole Council but seemingly that is not permitted

[Andrew Woodman]

It is interesting on this thread how our only West Yorkshire MP is being slagged off by folk who've probably never set foot in the region because they know the region better than he does.

There is still a problem in the North. I've been saying it for months. Too many target seats have ramshakle and unprofessional associations. Add this to the fact that Brand Cameron does not have quite the same appeal as it does in the south, and we have a lot of work to do. Restricting the pool of candidates for these seats was not a good start imo.

[TomTom]

I've never been to Shipley,

You should - you'd like it - it has farmers and manufacturing and quite a range of house prices. An interesting constituency which Marcus Fox seemed to like

[Michael McGowan]

The more I hear about Philip Davies the more I like the sound of him. A welcome change from the cohort of Vicars of Bray who congregate on the Tory Benches. By the way, which luxurious golf course is Tim Yeo (he who abhors flying) off to play on next? Augusta National maybe? Or what about Pebble Beach? Is he planning to walk and swim to get there? I am in the wrong job.

[Eurosceptic Yorkshire Tory]

Roger Helmer is right! The people of West Yorkshire DO care about Europe.

This is why I fear that many of them will not support us in the European elections. Neither of our MEPs, Timothy Kirkhope and Ed McMillan-Scott, can be said to represent the spectical views on Europe that are justifiably widespread amongst the electorate or amongst the party at large.

I wonder if West Yorkshire will have any Conservative representation in the European Parliament at the next election?

Please don't say UKIP.

[HF]

Re Keith Standring said "Are you providing quotes for the LibDem FOCUS bulletin? Are there any depths to which a CCCO Cameroonite troll will not descend?"

How can I be quoted as I do not use my own name, I could be a UKIPer, Lib Dem or BNP. I am not identifiable and not quotable.

I freely stated on here several times that Francis Maude needs to get a grip on his MEPs and ensure that they are all Conservatives. Hardly a Cameroointe!

Unlike you Keith, when you come up for election your Lib Dem opponent will be storing up the abuse that you heap on your own party and it should fill their Focus's for at least a year.

And of course the real embarrasment is Philip Davies for his attacks on his own party! How does that help us out in the North?

You assume Keith because I bother to post and back our Leader that I am a troll. In that you are mistaken. I actually welcomed your statement the other day that only one party can defeat Labour (us).

We can only do that if the public statements by identifiable "official" conservatives like Davies, engage their brain before they open their mouth.

[Andrew Woodman]

Yes the trouble with Philip Davies is he's a principled person who puts those principles before his career.

Can't have that in a politician can we!!!!

[Keith Standring]

HF I'm so pleased I rattled your anonymous cage.

To find out more aboutPhilip Davies, MP just click on his name.

[TomTom]

And of course the real embarrasment is Philip Davies for his attacks on his own party! How does that help us out in the North?

Incredibly well actually. He has credibility and spends his recess on the street with the police learning about the crime problem.

The real question is will any other Conservatives manage to get elected in West Yorkshire ?

[TomTom]

like Davies, engage their brain before they open their mouth.

Oh but he does - unlike some Conservatives who keep their mouths wide open and their heads empty

Philip has done his market research and knows his constituents

[Sean Fear]

Philip Davies' reported comment to the Yorkshire Post sounds very reasonable. I don't construe it as an attack on the Conservative Party.

[Steve]

Spot on Andrew Woodman and others who seem to appreciate how refreshing Philip Davies actually is.

[Tory T]

I think Keith Standring, with all the disgraceful barbs you throw at the Tory party, you have a bloody cheek accusing others of writing LibDem Focus leaflets. You are really helping LibDems in Rother (you said you sit there, right?) with all the foul things you write about the Tory party. Amazing nobobdy local has asked you to stop passing across the ammo.

It is the editorial content of the main post which suggests, foolishly IMO, that we are doing worse in Yorkshire because of the A list. I point out that in Yorkshire (exception, Leeds NW?) they are choosing white men and only white men as candidates. So if "we hate the imposed A list" was a problem, all these white male local candidates should be doing A-OK according to this argument.

Clearly the problems in Yorkshire, contrary to the main post, have nothing to do with the A list. That's my point.

[Steve]

Oh come on Tory T, you can't be that obtuse.

The issue is nothing to do with the status of the candidates in Yorkshire; it's that our leadership's concern about the gender and ethnicity of our candidates simply isn't relevant to the vast majority of people, not just in Yorkshire, but across vast swathes of the country outside the M25.

It's this lack of focus on issues that matter to people and internal navel gazing that the main editorial suggests might be responsible for our lack of progress in Yorkshire.

[Denis Cooper]

I've been looking for a map showing the distribution of seats across the UK after the 1997 general election. I can't find one quickly but it would be even worse than the present map which is on wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005

Obviously there's a problem which crosses the border between England and Scotland, and to a large extent the 'Tory northern problem' is the 'Tory Scottish problem' in a diluted form, part of a wider Tory problem with the geographical peripheries of the UK.

Whether the residual level of Tory support is inversely correlated to:

a) The distance of an area from the capital and the City; or
b) The distance of an area from continental markets; or
c) The local incidence of the mineral deposits which led to the development of traditional industries which have now mostly disappeared

is debatable, but it seems to be a general problem needing a general solution.

[Graeme Archer]

I don't think those of you who are attacking Tory T are getting the point s/he is making. The point is that those of you who complain about the A-list are not backed up in your position by the evidence from the composition of selected candidates in the north coupled with the evidence in this poll.

Tory T's point is not to prove that the A-list works, it is to prove that those of you who claim that it spells electoral disaster have buckets of disproof for your position in this poll.

(I'm sure Mr/s T will tell me if I'm wrong).

Do let's try and have a day without using the phrases "M25", "Eton", "metrosexual" (what the f&ck is that by the way?), "dinner party", "Eton". Users of these phrases say a lot more about themselves than their putative targets.

[Tory T]

No, the editorial suggests the voters of Yorkshire actually care enough about our method of candidate selection to see it as a negative - plainly wrong given who they have selected.

[Mack]

From a Yorkshire perspective many of the pronouncements of Mr Cameron appear to reflect a pre-occupation with image and issues of moment to inhabitants of the Westminster village.

This government has presided over the loss of 1 million jobs in manufacturing since 1997 and wasted much of the so-called investment in public services and infrastructure. So what do the Tories propose to do? It is not possible to develop coherent policies by listening to focus groups. Clarity of purpose and convictions are what the voters "up north" respect.

[Larry Green]

I am prepared to confess that I actually voted for Mr Cameron, because he said he would uphold traditional Tory principles, which he has not done.

I feel totally betrayed.

How many others here voted for him and now feel as I do?

[malcolm]

Not me. I did not think when I voted for him he would have been able to establish such a consistent lead in the polls so quickly. On the whole I'm pleased he's our leader.

[Esbonio]

Reading through this thread has been very interesting. I have not been surprised by Mr Davies's critics or his supporters. Unsurprisingly, I think he is one of the good
guys. The joke is, and may have been alluded to already, that whilst the modernisers whine about the need for candidates that meet their prejudices, the "A" don't want to stand outside the south-east.

And so I am afraid Graeme, whilst you may not like them, terms like "M25", "Eton", "metrosexual" "dinner party", etc may be t least partly relevant to this debate.

On the evidence available I'd rather talk turkey with Mr Davies than climate change, internal flights or anything else with Tim Yeo a Cameroon.

[Esbonio]

Apologies. 17.55 should end "Tim Yeo or a Cameroon."

[Yorkshire Tory]

The candidates selected in Yorkshire seats are excellent locals, e.g. Nigel Adams, Julian Sturdy and Alec Shelbrooke. They have a proven track record of commitment, hard work and success.

It takes time, not just a few months, to deliver swings in target seats. I am confident that they will be elected no matter the resuts in the rest of the region.

The attacks on them by Tory T are disgraceful - sexist and racist. The "T" must stand for troll or t**ser. Graeme Archer shows his ignorance as usual.

[Denis Cooper]

Choice of candidates is obviously important, but policies are far more important - to quote Mack above -

"This government has presided over the loss of 1 million jobs in manufacturing since 1997 and wasted much of the so-called investment in public services and infrastructure. So what do the Tories propose to do? It is not possible to develop coherent policies by listening to focus groups. Clarity of purpose and convictions are what the voters "up north" respect."

And voters elsewhere in the country, as well.

[Steve]

Aghhhh!

Once again, the issue isn't the A list as such and whether it works or doesn't; or whether it spells electoral disaster or not.

It's that the leadership's preoccupation with the gender and ethnicity of our candidates simply isn't playing well in many areas. It gives the impression of a metropolitan elite more concerned with political correctness than the failings of this Labour government.

[matt wright]

I think we need to be careful of not jumping to conclusions and of analysing any polls or findings carefully. I do not think it is true that we are doing badly everywhere in the "North" or that DC doesn't appeal to the "North" etc. These are sweeping and most likely misguided assumptions. Equally, as has been pointed out, we have done consistently badly in some parts of the North for eyars under different leaders and despite trying stronger immigration/crime messages. Also any analysis needs to look closely at how we are camapigning in differemnt parts of the North and how well in terms of best practise. It doesn't matter what leader you have any campaign has to be carried through locally as well and there has to be a base in local areas to do that starting with local councillors. I know for a fact that if we consider the "North" as a large swathe of the UK above a line drawn across the country that there are areas we are doing well, including my own in North Wales.

Matt

[matt wright]

Dennis, sorry I have just noticed you later post re focus groups etc. This just isn't correct. There is nothing intriniscally wrong with using focus groups. Industry used them long before politicians did and Thatcher was using them to good effect later than that. Of course it is useful to know what people think and what they are looking for and we would be mad not to use them. Perhaps one might argue with how the results of foc us groups are used, but thats a different matter. However dismissing focus groups is as illogical as dismissing the value of a candidate talking to groups in his community.

Matt

[CDM]

Why are we caring? Most marginal seats are in the South or Midlands, not the North.

It's also very tiring to hear people whinging about the fact that Cameron's been to Eton and Oxford (where he received a first-class degree). Surely we want someone who's clearly exceptional to run the country, rather than some yokel with no O-Levels whose never left his own county?

Class-envy (and masked homophobia) should have no home in the Conservative Party.

[Ian]

I think there's a problem with "focus group mentality" which is allowing us to become the led rather than the leaders as we were under Thatcher.

Of course something useful may be gained from these exercises but if focus groups really reveal a feeble PC-orientated attitude on the part of the London middle class we need to decide how we are going to give them the same backbone Yorkshiremen take for granted.

We might start by declaring war on Political Correctness.

[Tory T]

I haven't and don't attack the men selected or any of our candidates. I say the fact Yorkshire doesn't have any A list women/BME selected means that Yorkshire people could not care less about the A list - all their candidates are local men. Whom I am sure will do an excellent job for us.

We will have to look far deeper than imaginary concern over the A list to find the problems in Yorkshire

[Ian]

"Why are we caring? Most marginal seats are in the South or Midlands, not the North."

"rather than some yokel with no O-Levels whose never left his own county?"

Oh dear!

The nasty, snobbish, uncaring, party of (supposedly) the past rears its ugly head, in the form of fanatical Cameroon CDM.

Not exactly a surprise.

[Yorkshire Tory]

Tory T shows his ignorance again. Anne McIntosh was on the original A list and has been selected for Thirsk & Malton. His post at 10.34 was disgraceful.

[Ian]

It's not only disgraceful but ridiculous.

I live in the far south, surrounded by Tory MPs (plus a few LibDems). All the Tories are white, nearly all are male, and (as far as I know) all are heterosexual.

According to Tory T's tortuous logic we'll be fighting to retain these seats come the next election.

[CDM]

Ian, if it is "snobbish" to want the most capable people possible running the party (and hopefully in time the country), then I'm guilty as charged. Moreover, I fail to see what is "nasty" and "uncaring" about supporting the first viable Tory leader to take a real interest in social justice.

[Ian]

"the first viable Tory leader to take a real interest in social justice"

Eat your heart out Disraeli!

[Henry Mayhew]

If the Party can't win in the North it is going to be pointless winning in the South.

[sjm]

Er, as an effete Essex girl, isn't Yorkshire man William Hague an MP? For I believe, Richmond (that's Yorkshire surely, not South London). Wasn't he Leader at the 2001 election?

And where did all that Yorkshire backbone (none of your poofty Eton and London ways wanted oop here lass) get us?

Answers on the back of a used postage stamp please.

[Ted]

CDM
I'm a Cameron supporter and am sure of his capability and agree with you that we should have outgrown such taunts about Eton & Oxford, but don't confuse educational attainment with common sense or achievement. Yes we have Jade Goody as an example to us all of how badly our state education serves many in greatest need but though he was Labour I would judge Bevin as a far superior Foreign Secretary to Douglas Hurd (Bevin left school at 9, Hurd Eton & Oxford).

Many of us in the Party in the 70's & 80's are perhaps a bit wary remembering the Tory establishment, Eton & Oxbridge, and their lack of support or loyalty to Mrs Thatcher.

Overall the next election should prove a guide to the arguments above - if local male true Yorkshire candidates are all they are cracked up to be I'm sure we should see above average swings to the Conservatives. No excuses about the national picture, policies or campaigns - I've been reading the comments on the Candidates pages and noted the attacks on many A listers for their previous by-election performances.

I agree with Henry Mayhew BTW - we need to perform above expectations in the North, in Wales and Scotland to win the next election. Apparently though voters there are not attracted by centrist policies they want true blue 80's style conservatism (how do Labour & the LDs con them so they don't see those left wing policies?)

[Valedictoryan]

"As a Scot resident in the Highlands, sadly I am forced to agree."
-- Ian @ 4 Jan 07

"I live in the far south, surrounded by Tory MPs (plus a few LibDems). All the Tories are white, nearly all are male, and (as far as I know) all are heterosexual."
-- Ian @ 19:23

When's the housewarming and are we all invited?

[Ted]

Valedictorian - LOL :-)

[Scotty]

"During the so-called Highland Clearances, which the Irish correctly call The Potato
Famine"
O/T and from the other thread, but I have to ask what a potato has got to do with price of sheep?

[Annabel Herriott]

I have known Philip Davies for years, and I fully expect him to be the very good MP for Shipley for years as well. I must pop him an email into the sent box, so he can read his "fan mail"
On the subject of candidates, we are deciding/being told which method we are going to use for selection.
In any case, I guess we will choose a good local candidate who is already familiar with the area, although I understand that we have some A listers applying as well. We have a labour maj. of only 1501, so we are eminently winnable with the right person. Our voters are very parochial.

[Annabel Herriott]

Oh! and re the yougov survey.Paul Sykes is funding it, so Paul Sykes will want the result that he has asked for!!!! Remember he is the chap who created Meadow Hall, the big shooping complex in Sheffield, then sold it on, and he is known in these parts for using his money to influence. Much like Mr. Wheeler.

[TomTom]

Dear Essex Girl,

isn't Yorkshire man William Hague an MP? For I believe, Richmond (that's Yorkshire surely, not South London).

Richmond is in North Yorkshire not South Yorkshire or West Yorkshire. North Yorkshire is agricultural with very few major cities. West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire are the locations of major urban centres.

William Hague is loathed in much of Northern England - his 2001 Manifesto with himself on every publication drowning out local issues and local candidates was an example of grandiosity which rebounded.

It was very hard to find anything about local matters - the flyers were not even printed in Yorkshire - one of the major printing centres. Everything was London and it simply did not work. Hague ran the most inept campaign and it is hard to believe he is a professional politician and mis-read the public so completely

[TomTom]

b) The distance of an area from continental markets;

I suggest Denis you spend a day in King George V Dock at Hull and count the containers and lorries loading and unloading from those 50.000 tonne ferries and then drive from Zeebrugge and Rotterdam noting registration plates

London may be near France but Europe extends to Scandinavia and through Benelux and Germany to Russia

[Ian]

"When's the housewarming and are we all invited?"

Well you certainly have time on your hands Valedictoryan. I wonder if that's paid or unpaid?

I confess that my Scottish property is a second home, and it's close to my family's roots.

However, as I spend a total of around three months there every year there I make no excuse for commenting thus.