'Tory core support is strongest'

January's Communicate Research survey for The Independent shows a big changearound in LibDem and Labour support.  The LibDem rating is up 7% and Labour's rating is down 8%.  Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com detects a possible change in methodology at Communicate Research.

The Tory lead of 6.25% in the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls looks the healthiest for some time.

Within the Communicate Research numbers we learn that the support of core Tory supporters is strongest.  82% of people who regard themselves as "natural Tories" intend to support David Cameron at the next General Election.  The LibDems enjoy the support of 80% of their "natural supporters" but the Labour rating is just 64%.  Yesterday's rearrest of Lord Levy and Guido Fawkes' probing of the Smith Institute as a "Brownite front" aren't going to help that number.  Iain Dale has produced a documentary on the Smith Institute for 18 Doughty Street - watch it here.

Comments

[TomTom]

82% of people who regard themselves as "natural Tories" intend to support David Cameron at the next General Election

Two parties have new leaders and we are told that of those identifying themselves as Conservative 82% will vote for the Party as it stands.

Why is that a revelation ? It is self-selection since the poll reduced the Don't Knows by weighting them to parties on the basis of previous voting.

The raw data is more interesting since it found only 50% certain to vote the rest were graded levels of certainty.

On the simple basis that people either vote or they don't in binary reality; and that compulsory postal voting will NOT be used in Northern England as in 2005, it will be interestig to see what turnout actually is.

The local elections now have the added complication of EU nationals voting who cannot vote in national elections

[malcolm]

A very mixed poll indeed. Some highlights:We are ahead of Labour in the North and increasing our lead amongst men according to this poll.Other recent polls show the opposite. Also very suprised that the Lib-Dems are up so much. Most other polling organisations show them in the doldrums recently.
I am not very familiar with this organisation, can any of the more experienced pollwatchers enlighten us on their accuracy record please?
I suppose I should say before the usual comments appear that of course I realise that this poll is a complete disaster for the Conservatives and that if we only adopted all the policies advocated by UKIP we would of course be at least 90% ahead,if not more.

[ukfirst]

This poll is a complete disaster for the Conservatives, and if we only adopted all the policies advocated by UKIP we would be at least 90% ahead, if not more.

[Edward]

Tory core support the strongest? But what about the social conservative backlash?!

[Og]

If Cameron is wrong to sell the party's soul for the prospect of governing as a centre-left consensus big-tax-n-spender (and I belive he is wrong), he has at least started a trend - this is from Reuters this morning:

"LONDON (Reuters) - French conservative presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy praised Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday, saying France had much to learn from the actions of his Labour government.

"European Socialists should be proud of what one of us has done," the rightist interior minister told reporters at Downing Street, before hastily saying that he meant "one of them".

French Socialists were up in arms earlier this month when Sarkozy quoted heroes from leftist ranks in a keynote speech. They are likely to be less upset over his decision to adopt Blair as a potential role model."

[Scotty]

"I am not very familiar with this organisation, can any of the more experienced pollwatchers enlighten us on their accuracy record please?"
Malcolm, they seem to have a patchy record of issuing political polls over recent times. Looks like they are refining their methodology with a view to running a monthly tracker poll like ICM, YouGov and populus. If they have changed their methodology since last month then you cannot compare the results.
"Within the Communicate Research numbers we learn that the support of core Tory supporters is strongest." This looks new and could be an interesting regular indicator of core support but not enough previous data to draw any conclusions.

[Sean Fear]

"if we only adopted all the policies advocated by UKIP we would of course be at least 90% ahead,if not more."

LOL! The figures are pretty odd though.

[Chris Williams]

If this poll is to believed, Conservative support has not risen one iota since IDS was leader.

[James Maskell]

Core support is probably seen to be strongest right now because of the effort Cameron is finally making to woo them. The Gay adoption issue wont help, but as an issue of conscience, strictly speaking there is no Tory policy.

[Andrew Woodman]

I become very sceptical of polls with such big swingabouts. I really don't see what Ming and co have done to gain 7 points. Gay adoption is not an issue that would cause turnabouts like this. Think I'll be more interested when the next yougov poll comes out.

[changetowin]

So our core support is strongest. Hopefully this will put to bed the belief forwarded by the multiculturalist gay obsessives on this website that we have a problem with losing core support.

[George Hinton]

Either the polls are flawed or the electorate are becoming increasingly apapthetic.
The fact that NuLab are reeling from crisis to crisis and scandal to scandal seems to have no effect on the Conservatives share of the poll. Are we seeing a turn-off, are people treating all the parties alike, but this doesn't explain the Lib-Dems who presumably in the minds of many still carry that colgate ring of confidence.
Are the problems of NuLab affecting the democratic process?
Its a worrying trend and doesn't bode well for an election, which may well happen sooner than we all expect, particularly if the facts are true about the Smith Institute and Gordon Brown.

[EML]

I think we'll have to wait until next month's poll from this company. Comparing the last two is futile.

To see us down at 34% is worrying, though. What's the 'other' share, 16%?

[MH]

I agree with Malcom's assessment. This looks like a very wierd poll indeed, which - if true - has little comfort for anyone. Even the LibDem soar only places them back to a comparable GE 05 number. I think that Conservative core voters are the most instinctively loyal at GE time (although Dave may be pushing them of late). However, at the last Euros, my association were queueing up to vote UKIP and will do again next time. I think like all of these polls, there's a degree of context required in any interpretation.

[Michael McGowan]

Changetowin, I think we will wait until the real election rather than pay any attention to the hectoring of Guardian-worshipping illiberal liberals like you. The Dave factor wasn't such a runaway success at Bromley or Dunfermline was it?

[michael mcgough]

Clearly the poll wasn't run in Bromley and Chislehurst .

[Serf]

How did the Lib Dems get such a boost?

[Soupy Twist]

A ridiculous poll -- why does the Independent pay for this nonsense?

[NIgel Twocock]

"This poll is a complete disaster for the Conservatives, and if we only adopted all the policies advocated by UKIP we would be at least 90% ahead, if not more."

At least 120% I would have thought. David Cameron should resign immediately and join the Socialist Workers Party.

[Praguetory]

Prize to anyone that can say anything meaningful about this poll.

[Matt Davis]

I can say something meaningful about this poll Praguetory - it's a load of old tosh,seriously undermined by highly questionable methodology, much like most of the polls. Let's see some election results in the real world and then we'll all know what's true and what's not.

[malcolm]

Thanks Scotty, I've since had a look at Mike Smithsons site and the general consensus is that this poll and in particular its comparison with CRs previous polls are meaningless.

[Richard]

Agree with those who say this poll is weird. The Labour decline makes sense after all their cockups but not the Tory fall and significant Lib Dem rise.

[Yet Another Anon]

Agree with those who say this poll is weird. The Labour decline makes sense after all their cockups but not the Tory fall and significant Lib Dem rise.
Any poll can be weird and even if they all say the same thing they can all be weird, depends on a mixture of methods used in the polls and how weird the General Public are at any one time.

None of the three main parties have really been that inspiring for a very long time - all 3 seem to be behaving a bit like they were regulated by some kind of state regulator and were only arguing about possible administrative savings, but all shared much the same desire in terms of outcome, it's rather like trying to get enthused about Atlantic Gas & Electricity rather than British Gas or United Utilities - ultimately people wonder whether the use of their time looking at the matter actually justifies any miniscule difference.

[Yet Another Anon]

Not only that, but has anyone ever investigated core support over the economic cycle? I wouldn't be surprised if core support went through some mid-term changes itself normally as well with people who would have said they were certain to vote Labour shifting to probably mainly and some who were probably going to vote Liberal Democrat or Conservative shifting to being apparently core supporters and vice versa when other parties are in power.

[Old Hack]

The Indy poll is probably a rogue - either that or contrived to give the LDs a boost...

The Con Home poll of polls seems to show we are on a plateau at the moment. Worrying.

Another breakthrough is needed. At the moment we are in hung Parliament territory - which is not good news.

[ben everitt]

It’s both hilarious and indicative that when the Lib Dems have a quiet period their support goes up.

They seem to base their whole national strategy on being the quiet guy in the corner that doesn’t necessarily agree with what’s going on but won’t do anything to stop it.

[HF]

Can I just add on behalf of my acquaintances from the yUthfreeKIP, that until the Tories get at least 101% DC will have not proved himself to be a proper Tory.

As to this poll, CR have actually changed the way they asked the questions and got very different results. (duh)

CR has been good news for Labour and Gordon in its previous findings and still does not weight for past vote. So the fact they show a gap means that there could well be a 10 point Tory lead behind these figures. Should be a good Feb, 40%'s anyone?

[Oliver McCarthy]

The Lib Dems will collapse and the Socialists will rally when Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister. The Tories are still nowhere near the lead they need to win a General Election.

[Tory T]

....and Oliver would like to thank Big Brother for the increase in the chocolate ration

[matt wright]

I think we should wait for the latest round of authoritative polls. I have a suspicion that we could break the 40% barrier,

Matt

[Matt Davis]

So HF & Matt Wright if it isn't at least 40% what then?

[Yet Another Anon]

Not only that, but has anyone ever investigated core support over the economic cycle?
I mean political cycle.

I still think that the Conservative vote will go up and the number of Conservative seats will go up, but that Labour will regain substantial amounts of support it has lost mainly to the Liberal Democrats and that the Labour majority will either hold or even increase a bit - David Cameron supporters will pronounce it a great success, many others will say it is a great failure because despite getting perhaps 35% of vote and 215 seats or so the Conservatives will still be a long way from power, but David Cameron will probably try again (and lose again in 2014 but probably with the Conservative position holding), ultimately it will be someone who looks for solutions to problems and does not merely make some kind of dash for some notional centre who will win - Gordon Brown will almost certainly get his 10 years and then things will start to fall apart for Labour under his successor - Ed Balls or Caroline Flint probably, and then by about 2023 or 2024 quite possibly Priti Patel or someone else born in the 1970's or 1980's will lead the Conservatives to victory.

[TomTom]

Interesting piece by Bernard Ingham

Ingham

[Zorro]

For anybody other than the most slavish Cameroon headbanger it's all bets off until Brown becomes PM. Nobody loves a dead man walking and those Tories who say the present lead over dead man Blair is disappointing are 100% right.

When Brown becomes leader he will assemble a bright new cabinet around him together with some telegenic and intelligent junior ministers. Not much Tory talent around for Cameron to do that even if he wanted to!

And the point has been well made that apart from Cameron Hague and Davis, the Shadow Cabinet are unknown.

[Praguetory]

If there were any telegenic or intelligent Labour MPs don't you think they would have been trotted out by now? The main reason no ministers are getting fired for bungling incompetence is because the ranks have nothing better to offer. You clearly have little understanding of the talent on the Tory benches.

[Don H]

Bernard Ingham's article rather hits the nail on the head. However, we are really in a hiatus at the moment. Until Brown takes over the reins David Cameron and the Shadow front bench are stuck.

How can they mount a serious attack on a terminally confused gang of incompetents masquerading as a government, when Brown is standing in the wings ready to change everything. Blair, rearranging the deck chairs as he is, may well want to prolong the agony, not only to get at Brown but also to prolong the apparent ineffectiveness of the Opposition.

Cameron has little option but to hold his fire and, v much against my better judgement as a Euro-sceptic, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. Even the nonsense from Mr Hague over cutting ties with the States to concentrate on building alliances with the Orient and the sub-continent (strange, this, as we used to own them both once) has to be seen in a preparatory context.

There IS a chance to see progress in a real opinion poll in May, during the local elections. I have witnessed Conservative progress locally (in Milton Keynes) since Cameron became leader, so we ought to hang on.

[matt wright]

Hi Matt Davis, I do not know if we will break the 40% barrier but suspect so. I openly admit this is my gut feeling and that I may be wrong. What if we don;t? Well honestly I don't think that means we are on the wrong footing, because the trend has at last been right, only that we have to work harder.

Matt

[Matt Davis]

Hmmm so if the policies (or policy directions and political placement to be more accurate) haven't generated the necessary voter support then you don't think that they should be re-examined then Matt? There is a contradiction there you see since the whole thrust behind the lurch to the left has been that the policies of the right hadn't won 3 elections.It was never then suggested that it was just a question of working harder. The evidence of the private polling and research undertaken by the Party was very strongly that the electorate liked right wing Conservative policies but didn't like the Conservatives as a party. So if by working to make the party more likeable has brought us to where we are now then surely the smart move is to add to that by going with the type of policies that people previously said that they liked.

[matt wright]

Perhaps up to a point Matt D. As you know my feeling is we are doing much better and of course this is borne out in the polls generally. My view is that the basic approach is correct and that making changes to perceptiosn takes time. Obviosly though I am not against refining the approach to try and get the poll lead even higher. I have argued before on this site that we could move into a second stage and of course the party has said the same. I don't think that a logical progression say from setting a new image to firming up direction in more detail is moving away from a plan,

Matt