Tories 7% ahead in Populus survey

A Populus poll in tomorrow's Times gives David Cameron's Conservatives a 7% lead.  Last month the Tory lead was just 1%.  The 39% Tory rating is the highest in the Populus series and the Conservative lead widens to 4.75% in the ConservativeHome poll of polls.

Other Populus findings:

• Labour support would increase to 34% with Brown in charge;
• 58% of voters support a snap election to endorse Tony Blair's successor;
• Satisfaction with the Government has fallen to a meagre 15%.

Comments

[malcolm]

Excellent news! Populus have a good record for accuracy but have been quite volatile recently.I wonder if because the electorare are volatile

[Richard Carey]

This can't be bad news. Yes, before the naysayers pile in, I'd love a 10 point lead too, but I'll take what I can get.Baxter puts us three seats short of an overall majority on those numbers, but I'm pleased to see the rise from the slim pickings in the previous comparative poll. I'm also pleased to see the rise in the "poll of polls", as I'm always more interested in integrating up across polling trends.

Interesting to see the Brown impact on VI being positive rather than negative for a change. People reacting positively to the prospect of an end, any end, to the Blair-Brown uncertainty, or something else? Perhaps they think any change is worth a try, given that dismal approval rating?

Surely that's an opening for us to show that we're the right change and Brown is the wrong one? Given the fact that the public think there should be a GE to ratify Blair's successor, there has to be some doubt in alot of minds in this poll. I think it's a good thing that we were using the "cost of living" campaign website at the weekend to try and chip away the Brown story on the economy, there are countless chinks in his armour there that we can wedge open bit-by-bit.

I'm also happy that I've just plugged into the zeitgeist by putting a report on our "Stop BROWN's NHS Cuts" campaign on the front of two local ward newsletters tonight!There you go...

[Patsy Sergeant]

Nice positive news, lets hope it continues!

[Valedictoryan]

Poor Ming.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Great polling figures. Who will be more pleased. Cameron, or Clegg?

[Scotty]

Great poll to start the New Year and I hope for many more like it.
Interesting to note the 56% backing a snap GE, would have expected that to be much lower if people were content to see Brown succeed Blair for another couple of years.

[Scotty]

"Most of the Tory gain has been at the expense of other parties" Not endorsing the Telegraph's view that UKIP pose a threat then!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2537516,00.html

[matt wright]

Good news. The opportunity is emerging of establishing ourselves in the minds of most voters as the mainstream sensible party, squeezing Labour and the Liberals away from the centre and making the minor parties more extreme in their reaction to this new situation. To consolidate this though we do need to move into a second gear,

Matt

[Richard Carey]

To consolidate this though we do need to move into a second gear

Agreed, Matt - as we move forward into the second year, we do all need to kick it up a notch.

I think the fact that this is a major year for local elections should help form a focal point for local activists to campaign towards. We all need to weave our local campaigns into the fabric of a party preparing an alternative government. "We've delivered locally [see H&F thread earlier today for proof!], do you want to see us deliver nationally?"

[Cllr Keith Standring]

I have to say, "Why, given the dreadful record of NuLab isn't the lead greater?"

[Dean]

Welcome news.

Look forward to seeing the detail - particularly on Brown.

Isn't the Brown factor that he gets some traditional Labourites back on board but frightens Limp Dums back to the Tories increasing their lead?

Anything that wipes the self-satisfied expression of a Lib Dem is great - I used to think the stories of Ming being ousted this year a bit far fetched but I'm beginning to wonder.

[Yet Another Anon]

I used to think the stories of Ming being ousted this year a bit far fetched but I'm beginning to wonder.
Who's going to want to takeover, the issue of the War in Iraq is diminishing and the Liberal Democrats have already slipped since the 2005 General Election, is anyone in the Liberal Democrat parliamentary party going to want to be remembered as the person who lead them in their great step backwards?

[matt wright]

Just as a slight aside, I had a look at the Populus web site and while there its worth looking at their message meter thingy. Its really quite interesting. Look at the things that switched voters on in Camerons speech and what switched voters off in Blairs speech. On the latter when Blair talked about Brown all voters whatever their VI went into nosedive! Interestingly when Cameron talked positively about the NHS and said he would keep things like the minimum wage, all the voters went up from right across the political spectrum.

Matt

[Daniel VA]

"Labour support would increase to 34% with Brown in charge"

How would Conservative support be affected? I imagine that boost for Labour would come from Liberal Democrats, but I could be wrong.

Regarding the poll ratings, we gained 5% but Labour and the Liberal Democrats lost only 2% between them so where has the remaining 3% come from? Surely not the massed UKIP hordes?

Oh, and Cllr Standring wins the Barbara Villiers Memorial Trophy for this thread. Runner-up prize will be awarded to the first contributor who trots out the usual "we would be 10%/15%/25%/50%/100% ahead if William Hague/David Davis/Liam Fox/John Redwood/Norman Tebbit/Uncle Tom Cobley was leader" joke.

[Scotty]

"I have to say, "Why, given the dreadful record of NuLab isn't the lead greater?"
I don't know, the longest consistent lead enjoyed by any conservative leader in years when it comes to polls such as Yougov and ICM.
You start notching up poll ratings with the added advantage of being the best in 12 years in some cases and still people carp.
Considering how long we have stagnated in the polls and the fact we still have less than 200 MP's these kind of good news ratings deserve to be praised. I also think that considering we are only midway through Labour's third term yet some seem to expect that Cameron should achieve the kind of ratings that Blair became used to in the latter stages of a conservative 4th term.
I also seem to remember just how difficult it was to manage the conservative party whilst being PM back then, didn't Major have to interrupt his tenure to stand down and ask for a new mandate to govern his own party whilst in government? Don't remember Blair having that dramatic an intervention to his premiership! Don't think the voters were that impressed either.
Added to this we have new and old pollsters using different weightings from those back in the early 90's.
But still don't let a good news poll get in the way of criticising the new conservative leadership, even when their lead goes up from 1% to 7% in this populas one!

[Alexander Drake]

I miss the Duchess, Daniel. Always barking on cue, you only had to look at Her Grace's name in the "Posted by:" bit to know what she was basically going to say.

Far more entertaining than some of the others that have emerged since.

[Serf]

Daniel,

If we had Davis as leader we would win a 300 seat majority.....

Now what do I win?????

Seriously though (and this is not meant to be a criticism of Cameron), I do wonder how it is possible for anyone to still wish to vote for this incompetent and corrupt shower of idiots. Against Satan himself, they should be trailing in the polls.

I guess all this shows is how little most people think about politics, unlike us obsessives.

[HF]

Cllr Keith Standring says things should be better.

The last time our polls were as good as these it was in 1992 after we won the election.

[Soupy Twist]

Valedictoryan:

"Poor Ming."

Indeed. But let's hope the Lib Dem rating doesn't fall much below 17-18%, otherwise they might have to find someone else.

[Umbrella Man]

Time to launch a Save Ming campaign?

[OldBlue]

Serf wrote @ 09:20
"Seriously though (and this is not meant to be a criticism of Cameron), I do wonder how it is possible for anyone to still wish to vote for this incompetent and corrupt shower of idiots. Against Satan himself, they should be trailing in the polls."

Could not agree more, it baffles me that anyone with a full set of sandwiches in the picnic basket could possibly vote NuLab.

Then again, I guess if your job was created by them and one now relied on them ...

[Ted]

Miss her too, though had she continued it probably would have become tiresome - the difference was that the Duchess was rabidly against Cameron & modernisation but wasn't a troll.

On thread - polling has become less volatile because of the weightings and methodology changes. This probably reflects the reality that changes in ublic support are step changes with long periods where nothing much happens. Its good though that Populus is for once showing us in same range as ICM & YouGov

[malcolm]

Absolutely Old Blue.No matter what Labour do 30% of the population still seem to support them. I recently saw a poll that showed that more than a quarter of people still believe that Tony Blair is 'honest'.These people are either incredibly gullible, very thick or owe their livelehood to Labour.I suspect the majority fall into the latter category.

[Tory T]

Populus are by far the most Labour friendly of the real pollster who vote by past vote recall.

This means that these numbers are outstanding for the Tories. Very very good news.

[Sean Fear]

Quite true, Malcolm. As I've commented before, left wing governments are adept at building up large client groups, and their policies - such as expanding the public sector, increasing means-tested benefits, promoting mass immigration etc., are all means to that end. We, by contrast, are amateurs.

The activities of councils like Hammersmith & Fulham, Wandsworth, Bromley etc. certainly do help the Conservative cause. However, their message, of cuts in taxation and public sector efficiency, are somewhat at odds with those of our party leaders.

[Michael McGowan]

Sean, I totally agree.

[Serf]

I recently saw a poll that showed that more than a quarter of people still believe that Tony Blair is 'honest'.

The state of education under his government probably means that 25% of people don't know what the word honest means. Either that or 25% of people don't know who Tony Blair is.

[Denis Cooper]

HF @ 09:25 - "The last time our polls were as good as these it was in 1992 after we won the election" ... but before Black Wednesday, five months later.

[michael mcgough]

"Even so, the Conservatives should be scoring higher and are failing to do so precisely because voters don't think that Cameron actually has the support of his party, Nadhim Zahawi, chief executive of pollster YouGov Plc, said in an interview yesterday"

report on Bloomberg linked in with the defections to UKIP of the two Lpords.

[kingbongo]

I found this quote from Ian Fleming in Casino Royale - haven't seen the film but thought i'd buy the book (1st published 1953)

Bond says.. "If I'd been alive fifty years ago, the brand of Conservatism we have now would have been called damn near Communism".

I imagine the two so-called defectors (both have been associated with UKIP for a number of years and neither of them have the tory whip) also feel that Conservatism was better '50 years ago' which, I suppose, in Bond's eyes would make them 'damn near Communists'. 50 years ago always seems to be the period think was better and UKIP are a perfect example.

As UKIP mass resignations become a daily occurrence Farage and his dwindling band of pink gin swiggers can continue to fantasise that voters are on the verge of flocking to them but there's not a scrap of evidence to suggest they're going to. Meanwhile the LIMPDUM's problems continue to multiply, especially their canddate selection mess. With all this in mind, if we aren't above 40% in YouGov and ICM by July 31 I will donate £50 to the Taxpayer's Alliance.

[Rudyard.]

I shudder to think what will happen on the day that a couple of our MPS divert to UKIP.Many on here will just stagger and collapse I'm sure.Those who think UKIP are still damaging us should refrain from uttering the UKIP name as they seem to do almost endlessly.

[Yet Another Anon]

The latest bit of news about the Home Office over mistakes with Foreign Criminals approved to work with vulnerable people probably kills any chance John Reid would have had had he intended to stand for the Labour leadership.

Probably be reflected by a sharp drop in the opinion polls similar to that in the Local Elections and might be more sustained because of it having happened before, maybe Gordon Brown's first act as Prime Minister will be to replace John Reid?

[Yet Another Anon]

I shudder to think what will happen on the day that a couple of our MPS divert to UKIP
UKIP support would rocket up if that happened, easily up to 10% and they'd probably take a lot of support off Labour and some off the Liberal Democrats as well.

[Rudyard.]

If they (ukip)got 10% for a couple of MPs moving to them,I'd be surprised.If I had been asked I would have guessed at maybe 1 or 2% max.I think we are making a big mistake by bringing them into our conversation so much these days.Wouldn't it be better all round for them to be totally ignored?I can never view them as a real thret to us.

[Mark McCartney]

Of course UKIP is damaging the Conservative Party. In around 27 constituencies at the last General Election UKIP split the vote and prevented Tories from winning the seats.

Next time round the gap between the Conservatives and Labour is likely to be much narrower, so UKIP may well be the kingmakers.

That's why we need to work with UKIP and Nigel Farage looks like the kind of guy we can do a deal with.

In return we will need to commit ourselves to UK withdrawal from the EU. No problem there. Many Conservatives have been urging it for years.

[Josh]

"Bond says.. "If I'd been alive fifty years ago, the brand of Conservatism we have now would have been called damn near Communism"."

I like the idea of UKIP getting representation because, like the English Democrats, they have a single issue, which I want to be voiced.

This however is madness. 50 years were heading head long into the tyranny of socialism. We were saved from the brink only by the intervention of Mrs. T, Praise Be Upon Her.

50 years ago, the current brand of Labour party would have been called laissez-faire capitalist. We have made a lot of progress since then. True, we're getting a bit bogged down in the bureaucracy of social democracy, but it's still a step ahead of socialism.

[Jack Stone]

In the event of there being a hung Parliament the kingmakers will be the Liberal Democrats not UKIP.Also if you think any serious Conservative politican will commit the party to leaving the EU I think you are living in fantasy land.
Please lets get real. UKIP are an irrelevance.They are a very small fringe party who are unlikely to ever have an MP elected let alone play any part in government.
No party in this country will ever be elected unless they can attract support from the moderate majority. They are the people we need to concentrate in getting to support us not the mad EU obsessed right-wingers.

[Mark McCartney]

UKIP may be a fringe party, Mr Stone. It consists of individual human beings who have just as much right to their views as you or I.

I am a Conservative and have been for many years. Are you?

Some of your attitudes seem more redolent of Stalinism.

[Scotty]

"Next time round the gap between the Conservatives and Labour is likely to be much narrower, so UKIP may well be the kingmakers.

That's why we need to work with UKIP and Nigel Farage looks like the kind of guy we can do a deal with."

LOL, the Libdems will see themselves as the kingmakers and I would be against any coalition with them. UKIPwho?

[Ian]

I wouldn't worry about Jack Stone, Mark.

Nobody's quite sure who or what he is, but one thing is for certain. He's not a Conservative.

He only comes on here to wind people up.

[jorgen]

It is probably impossible to predict, if those unhappy with the Conservative Party will vote for UKIP, BNP, vote blank or simply stay away. But before you insult them too much, remember that you one day may want many of them to return.

A lot of you point to the low membership of UKIP. Are all Conservative voters members of the Party? I have been a Conservative voter for 42 years in three different countries and I have only been a member of a political party one year in all that time.

[Yet Another Anon]

People said that UKIP were in trouble after the 1997 General Election and after the 2001 General Election and both times they later made advances in the European and General Elections.

[Ian]

There's now a constant demand for something like UKIP so they are always going to make a comeback however much they brawl among themselves.

At least they have one clear policy. The trouble with the Conservative Party today is that it's very difficult to be sure whether it stands for anything at all

[Rudyard.]

If more do go over to ukip I think they may cause everyone problems,especially in the upcoming local elections in early May.

[Scotty]

"But before you insult them too much, remember that you one day may want many of them to return."
Jorgen, I think that the problem is more their inflated sense of importance to the conservative party when they were part of it and now they have left.
To me the people who remain in the party and the new voters who are turning to the conservatives are of equal if not more importance when deciding policy direction. And I don't believe in doing a deal with the Libdems who are a much more relevant political party never mind a minority protest group like UKIP!

[kingbongo]

"Nigel Farage is the sort of person we can do a deal with"

Oh do please go and read some UKIP websites before saying such things - UKIP hate the tory party much more than any other party. Anyone who seriously thinks UKIP represent a sane alternative to an imperfect Conservative party just hasn't studied their leadership enough.

[Alexander Drake]

Agree about the 'bruised feelings' thesis Scotty - they would be well advised to remember that if you want a friend while in politics, buy a dog.

[Ian]

"And I don't believe in doing a deal with the Libdems"

Looks like a Brown government after the next election is 100% certain then.

[kingbongo]

If a Brown govt is 100% certain you could go on to Betfair and pick up free money by accepting bets from anyone who thinks differently. Just how much of your own money are you willing to bet that it is 100% certain Brown will win the next election?

[Yet Another Anon]

"And I don't believe in doing a deal with the Libdems"

Looks like a Brown government after the next election is 100% certain then.

I happen to think still that Labour will win the General Election probably with 40% of the vote or a bit more and probably a slightly increased majority and the Conservatives will get more like 35% or 36% and move forward in terms of seats with the Liberal Democrats losing many seats that they gained from both main parties over the past 10 years and Labour losing more to than they gain from the Conservatives leaving the Liberal Democrats heavily reliant on Tactical Voting to hold onto seats.

However if there were to be a Hung Parliament it is by no means certain that the Liberal Democrats would form an administration with another party, in fact if they gained 100 seats and Labour lost about 100 it is possible that as the Liberals and Conservatives did with Labour in 1923 it could be decided that a minority Liberal Democrat administration that could be brought down at any moment could be allowed to govern, other alternatives would be a Labour or Conservative minority government or even a coalition between Conservative and Labour as has happened in Israel between Labor and Likud and in Germany between SPD and CDU\CSU.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Conservative Party would not be likely to go far enough for UKIP, otherwise there would be the possibility of an attempted deal leading to a party leadership battle in the Conservative Party or many Europhiles walking out - this is why the Conservative Party cannot currently withdraw the UK from the EU - it is stuck in a battle between different factions who hold together under the failed policy of In Europe but not run by Europe.

[David Lonsdale]

UKIP are kingmakers in the sense that folk who vote for them could tip the balance away from potential Conservative wins, as happened in the last election. If only one per cent of erstwhile Conservatives vote for UKIP, even with boundary changes, the Conservatives could not win on these poll numbers.
I am sure Cameron knows this. Calling for a cost/benefit analysis and promising a referendum on the figures would secure his core vote and would not lose any of his credibility with the centre.

[Mark McCartney]

The Conservative Party's past problems on Europe have been entirely self-inflicted.

There was no place in our party for Eurofanatics and these anti-Conservatives from Ken Clarke downwards (?) should long ago have been told to get into line or get out.

Hague probably had the guts to do this but sadly stood down before action could be taken. The signs are that Cameron is probably a closet Europhile.

[matt wright]

Hang on, I don't agree with the EU but I don't want witch hunts of people in our party who do support it. This is democracy not Stalinism or soemthing. I don't agree with Eurofanatics, as you call them, but that does not mean they aren't Conservatives. You don't decide who is allowed or not.

Matt

[Yet Another Anon]

Calling for a cost/benefit analysis and promising a referendum on the figures would secure his core vote and would not lose any of his credibility with the centre.
David Cameron as do the other 2 main party leaders remains committed to membership of the EU, they are frightened that a referendum on EU membership would vote yes to leaving the EU.

And Harold Wilson who had opposed the EEC suddenly switched to backing it in 1974. Somehow Margaret Thatcher has never managed to bring herself since leaving office to say that the UK should leave the EU, Norman Tebbit has though. the only leaders of the 2 main parties who maintained fundamental opposition to the EU\EEC were Hugh Gaitskell and Michael Foot, and I rather suspect that Michael Foot since 1983 has become more favourable towards the EU. If Hugh Gaitskell was alive now he would probably be backing UKIP.

[Rudyard.]

David Lonsdale has said,when speaking about David Cameron,that,"Calling for a cost/ benefit analysis and promising a referendum on the figures would secure his core vote and would not lose any of his credibility with the centre."

The above statement is made after the terrible lie DC told Members regarding his promise to remove us from the EPP within months,not years.Later,though not making an appology for this,he told us it would actually be done after the 2009 European Parliamentry Elections.Mr Cameron would have now had a lot more support than he has now had he faced up to us all and simply said,I'm afraid I will have to forego my promise to you all regarding pulling out of the EPP and delay it for three years or so.Sorry. Had he done this,he would already have secured a huge core vote and more importantly perhaps,he would have a lot more Members and more credibility than he presently has with many of us.

[clive elliot]

Surely all the Conservatives need to do to disarm UKIP completely is to promise a referendum on whether we stay in the EU or not?
Every UKIPper would vote cons to get their chance to campaign to get out. I suggest very little chance of such a referendum going UKIP's way, and that would also lay their threat to rest. On the other hand, if the nation did vote to leave the EU against the advice of all three major political parties, then maybe a policy rethink is neccessary.

[clive elliot]

Surely all the Conservatives need to do to disarm UKIP completely is to promise a referendum on whether we stay in the EU or not?
Every UKIPper would vote cons to get their chance to campaign to get out. I suggest very little chance of such a referendum going UKIP's way, and that would also lay their threat to rest. On the other hand, if the nation did vote to leave the EU against the advice of all three major political parties, then maybe a policy rethink is neccessary.