Year 2(8): Anticipate difficult results in next year's Scottish and Welsh elections

Recommendation 8: Next May’s Scottish and Welsh results are likely to be very difficult for the Conservative Party.  David Cameron has improved the party's opinion poll standing but progress in Wales and Scotland, in particular, is very limited and the party is unlikely to make significant gains.  There is a danger that there may even be some defeats in Scotland.  The party must act now to be able to show that it is making progress in parts of England where there will need to be progress at the General Election.  That means targeting special resources on a few English councils where success can be celebrated on the morning after polling day.  The model is Ken Baker's 1990 tactic of focusing upon winning Wandsworth and Westminster boroughs in an otherwise difficult election year.

Comments

[Torygirl]

Time for an English Parliament!!!

[Sean Fear]

The Welsh results should be okay, but Scotland could well be a problem.

[Voice from the South West]

Unless it's escaped my attention, we haven't been doing that badly in Wales surely? I thought our prospects of over taking Plaid as the offical opposition were quite good. Or have I missed something?

[HF]

Scotland is failing because the Leadership there is failing. It is like a rogue Association stuffed with people falling out with each other unable to work together for a common goal. The UK Party Chairman has failed to ensure that the overhaul required is underway. But then he is a part timer.

The Party need to find a Chairman/CEO for Scotland capable of re-building its organisation. Let someone else head up the MSPs.

[Scotty]

Worst day for the conservatives in Scotland was the day after the 97' GE. I have been out leafleting at every local, European and GE since then.
Having followed a strategy since 97' which effectively shored up the core vote in the South of England can I suggest that writing off Scotland and Wales at a time when we are slowly but steadily improving would be a mistake. It sends a very negative message to voter's and conservative member's like myself.
"The model is Ken Baker's 1990 tactic of focusing upon winning Wandsworth and Westminster boroughs in an otherwise difficult election year. That is more of a strategy to be followed by an increasingly unpopular government which continues to be punished at local elections rather than one to be followed by a party in opposition which is increasing in popularity?

[Hilary B]

I am told the Scottish C & Unionist party is now officially the worst performing centre-right/right in western Europe - at about 14%.

This in the land of Home, Buchanan-Smith, Ancram etc etc etc.

[Daniel VA]

Editor, you could well be right about Scotland but I think you're being overly pessimistic about Wales.

Yes, the electoral system will count against us and yes, Peter Hain's talk of Nick Bourne as an increasingly credible alternative First Minister in a non-Labour coalition does smack of crying wolf to mobilise Labour voters, but the party has taken great strides since the electoral nadir of 1997, and there's little reason to believe that trend will not continue next year.

[Philip]

I agree with Daniel VA, Wales does have the room for success and I can easily see seats like Cardiff North and Camarthern West, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Clwyd West etc. turning blue. Perhaps even Brecon and Radnorshire might also signal a swing from the Lib-Dems the Conservatives as well as Labour.

Yes, Scotland will be hard and staying level would be a big success at the moment!!

[matt wright]

Comments about Wales are totally off the mark and illustrate a lack of understanding of regional differences. Results here good, organisation is much improved. We are winning by-election after by-election. Feedback on doors is excellent. Labour are worried and the public know this,

Matt

[HF]

Is it time Editor for 2 threads about how we are doing in Scotland and Wales to help inform us all?

[Editor]

I hope I'm wrong about Wales, Matt, but without any Welsh opinion polling it is difficult to be sure. By-elections are an unreliable guide to performance at General Elections - I hope they'll be a better guide to the elections for the Cardiff Assembly.

I won't divide threads up now, HF, as the 12 recommendations probably mean that there are enough threads open but I'm open to suggestions for how ConservativeHome provides good coverage of the Scottish and Welsh elections over the coming months...

[Dick Wishart]

I'm with Matt on this, the attitude amongst Conservatives towards the National Assembly has changed completely in the last couple of years. In my own patch we have had a tremendous response and are picking up new members every week, and, more importantly we are getting more and more people involved and out walking the streets, something, that at Assembly elections just has'nt happened before.
We have first class proffesionals Wales in both the Director and ACD, Clwyd West MP David Jones is supporting ALL the associations in North Wales. Support is also strong from David Cameron, where, for the first time in the North we are getting a succession of Shadow Cabinet speakers to help our cause.
The mood in Wales is light years away from 2003.
There WILL be a large blue swathe across Wales come May 2007

[Yet Another Anon]

I think Labour may well regain it's majority in Wales, in Scotland I think it will be close as to whether Labour or the SNP are the largest party but between them Labour and the Liberal Democrats should have enough seats to continue the coalition.

The Conservatives might make modest gains in Wales, but in Scotland I don't see that happening.

[Shaun Bennett]

Given that the Welsh Assembly results in 2003 were so close in the fight for second place; and given that Plaid Cymru has since fallen back further while the Conservatives have consistantly beaten them in share of the vote for several years now whenever elections have been held, I think we can look forward to very good results in Wales in 2007. Even if constituency gains are offset by regional list losses, or if the gains are only modest we should at least take over as the second party which would be a massive boost!
In Scotland however, I think that the general consensus is correct, I would be extremely surprised if we do not make some losses and slip into fourth place given current polling evidence.
I am confident however that the results elsewhere in the country will be enough to offset the forseeable losses in Scotland.

[Yet Another Anon]

Then again seeing as Jack McConnell seems to have gone nuts and is connsidering forming a minority administration, perhaps there could be a spell of chaos in the Scottish Parliament with no one able to form an administration, no party's going to have a majority, but if Labour tries to form a minority administration and the Liberal Democrats refuse to back them then this would leave them probably unable to continue, what then? A minority SNP administration or some kind of rotating leadership?

LIB DEM WARNING FOR MCCONNELL

Executive coalition in meltdown

[Scotty]

Yetanotheranon, I would not be surprised if the Labour party end up in a coalition with the conservatives! Oh the irony if the party gets back into power in Scotland before anywhere else.
The Scottish conservatives will not lose seats and in fact will make a very modest advance on their last election results.
The polls in Scotland have consistently underestimated the actual performance of the party.

[Goldie]

The funny thing about Project Cameron is that all seems well and dandy, including some of the polls, but the actual RESULTS so far at the polls have been dismal.