ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Year2(2): David Cameron must show more steel

Recommendation 2: Over the last year David Cameron has moved the party on to the centre ground of British politics and he's been careful to build bridges with people that have turned away from the Conservative Party of recent times.  The most notable outreach has been to public sector workers.  David Cameron has often appeared at pains to avoid offending anyone (other than Simon Heffer).  We saw more steel from the Tory leader earlier this week in his unequivocal defence of marriage.  We need to see much more of the same.  Two of the world's most interesting politicians - Australia's John Howard and America's John McCain - have built their reputations on straight-talking.  They've been willing to adopt unpopular positions if they think the national interest demands it.  Their popularity has only grown as a result.  Voters won't want another Blair at the next election.   The voters who are threatening to emigrate from Britain in huge numbers don't want a politician who stands with the British establishment.  They want a politician with the guts to overturn the status quo where that establishment is failing most.

Year2(1): Focus more on crime and security

Following on from last week's review of the peaks, troughs, modernising and reassurance moments of David Cameron's first year, ConservativeHome spends today proposing twelve actions that will help Project Cameron to make the best of its second year and build upon the modest 3% Tory lead in ConservativeHome's poll of polls.

Recommendation 1: The Conservative Party has been an imbalanced project for far too long.  At the last General Election Michael Howard focused far too much on immigration and reinforced a negative image of the Conservative Party.  In his first year as Tory leader David Cameron has placed a heavy emphasis on very different themes - notably the environment and increasing the number of female candidates.  The danger is that the 'new' Conservative Party looks as imbalanced as the 'old' Conservative Party.  Every 'Waitrose voter' gained is erased by the 'Bromley voter' who stays at home.  The south and ABs warm to Cameron as the north and C2s cool.  ConservativeHome welcomes David Cameron's greener, gentler conservatism but the 'politics of and' argues that we must also talk about crime and tax and immigration.  There have been welcome signs in recent days that David Cameron is rebalancing the Tory message and is offering some grittier positioning.  More than anything else the party must work on its homeland security credentials.  Homeland security is the coming issue.  It is almost inevitable that Britain will be struck again and again in future years by acts of terrorism.  The Conservative Party must not be weaker than Labour on this issue.  Prosperity and security, as John Howard understands, is the fundamental 'politics of and'.

Conservatives Abroad

Conservatives Abroad have officially launched their smooth new website today, which is hoped will help to engage with the ex-pat community around the world.

200,000 people are leaving Blighty for places like Australia and Spain every year, and the IPPR estimates that ex-pats now account for 10% of all British citizens. They are a huge consituency to tap into.

Few Conservative organisations need to utilise the internet as much as CA, so it's great to see the website has both a members' forum and a blog.

Deputy Editor

PMQs: Suffolk murders and the NHS

Tony Blair said Suffolk Police would get all the support they needed to deal with the recent murders of prostitutes there, and that there might be lessons to learn from the terrible events.

David Cameron said that "we all want this monster to be caught and locked up".

Menzies Campbell asked for a review of law affecting prostitutes, and to ensure the safety of women (sticking to either very sensitive issues or foreign policy questions as usual).

Cameron used all of his questions in one go, most of which sparred with Blair over the NHS. Referring to the Commons health select committee report, Cameron said:

"The prime minister stands here week after week saying that local cuts are the fault of local health staff, but this report shows it is poor central management."

Much of the NHS debate was standard fare. Blair comparing NHS (which he called "the pride of Britain") waiting lists etc to 1997 levels and hailing massive investment, whislt Cameron pointed out planned closures of A&E and maternity wards, and finishing with:

"Isn't the problem that the man at the centre is a lame duck? Will you give us all an early Christmas present and tell us when you'll be off?"

On the question of pay for forces deployed for long periods, Blair gave a very long-winded and complicated answer lasting quite a few minutes that basically concluded that everyone was better off. There were loud cheers and calls for "more" of the magic trick. Cameron tuned into the atmosphere and commented that when Blair retires he could have a job as Sir Humphrey in a new series of Yes, Prime Minister.

Cameron's big tent finds more room for right-wing views

There has been no panic inside Team Cameron but the latest opinion polls have been disappointing and an increasing number of MPs have been registering unhappiness at the lack of 'red meat'.  Over the last week we have seen the response.  There have been no screeching u-turns but there has been a marked shift of emphasis.  There has been the extra grit that David Cameron promised on the anniversary of his election.

First came the back to basics message on education and then came David Cameron's unequivocal support for Iain Duncan Smith's findings on marriage.  The Tory leader's position on marriage isn't just important in its own right but also because it communicates a sense of belief.  There'll be plenty of voters who probably won't agree with David Cameron on marriage but will respect him for telling it as he really sees it.  Too many of David Cameron's previous statements have looked heavily focus grouped.

Yesterday we saw two more reassuring statements.  First came a warning to Labour that the deal on extra state funding could be at risk if Tony Blair isn't willing to cap union funding.  This must be a dealbreaker for Labour and a possible sign that the Tories are willing to walk away from the whole idea of extra state funding.  That'll be essential if the Tories aren't going to appear the new party of Britain's tired establishment.  The Conservative leader also used his press conference for some tough talking on tax (see video below).  There were no big new promises but, as with Monday's Mail interview, there was talk of people having been "clobbered" in Gordon Brown's "massively overtaxed" Britain and he communicated a sense that he really did intend to share the proceeds of growth between tax relief and extra spending.

The Conservative leader can, of course, argue that nothing he is saying now is inconsistent with what he has said since first standing for the party leadership and he would be right.  But, make no mistake, the emphasis is beginning to shift and not a moment too soon.  There is no sign that he is abandoning his very welcome greener, gentler agenda but he is showing signs that he won't just be camped out on the centre ground but his will be a bigger tent, with room for centre-right views, too.

Don't miss ConservativeHome tomorrow and our twelve step recommendations for making Year Two of Project Cameron a success.

David Cameron indicates that he won't compromise on donations cap

I went to David Cameron's CCHQ press conference earlier today and took my 18 Doughty Street camcorder.  The above video clip is of the Tory leader's remarks on political funding - in response to a question from The Guardian's Will Woodward.  Mr Cameron appeared to indicate that he would be willing to play hardball with Labour on the donations cap - a cap he has suggested should be set at £50,000.  Labour want an exception for trade unions and the Tories are resisting that.  Mr Cameron must know that extra state funding of political parties is incredibly unpopular with grassroots Tories and most voters.  The Tories may not be able to afford 'no deal on state funding' but Labour's financial plight is more serious.  The negotiations could get interesting...

Labour minister: Sports stars shouldn't be banned for social drug use

Tory sports spokesman Hugh Robertson has called on Tessa Jowell to disown remarks made by Labour sports minister Richard Caborn.  According to BBC Online Mr Caborn said that sports people should not be banned for using "social" drugs.

Mr Robertson:

“Richard Caborn's comments are wrong and appear directly to contradict UK sport's very clear stance on drug taking by elite athletes. The performance of an elite athlete in any sport will be affected by taking recreational drugs and top sportsmen and women act as role models for many young people. I hope that Tessa Jowell will disown these illogical and damaging comments.”

Yesterday was a good day for the Conservative Party

Following yesterday's welcome from The Sun, this morning's Daily Mail gives a very strong endorsement of yesterday's Breakdown Britain report from Iain Duncan Smith's social justice policy group.  In a special leading article it declares:

"For the best part of two decades (often as a lonely voice) this paper has consistently argued that the single greatest cause of the social problems of modern Britain — from binge drinking and drug abuse to educational failure, welfare dependency, vandalism and violent crime — is the breakdown of the family.  Now, to his immense credit, Iain Duncan Smith, instead of sulking like some of his predecessors at his ejection as Tory leader, has laboured mightily to produce a devastating 300,000-word report, Breakdown Britain, that unequivocally draws the same conclusion."

This Mail reaction is very good news for David Cameron.  He cannot afford to have so many of the traditional Tory newspapers offside as was in danger of becoming the case.  Yesterday he gave unequivocal backing to Iain Duncan Smith's analysis and sided with the traditionalists on marriage, rather than the modernisers.

More than anything, however, Mr Duncan Smith's report should not be seen in political terms.  It is a hard-headed, 300,000 word attempt to try and understand why life is getting harder for so many Britons when the nation has never been wealthier and when we've never spent so much money on welfare.  Thoughtful reviews from The Times, The Independent and Martin Kettle in The Guardian all suggest that  the report will receive the serious study it deserves.

Iain Duncan Smith showed that there was real weight to David Cameron's policy review process.  The 'Breakdown Britain' report was not the only example of compassionate conservatism on show either.  MPs Gary Streeter and William Hague issued a powerful report on human rights abuses around the world.  Yesterday was a good day for the Conservative Party.   

First Human Rights report launched

"We have the privilege of living in freedom. But with that privilege comes the responsibility to use our liberty to speak up for those who are denied it … It is not only morally right that we should speak for the oppressed, it is also in our national interests to do so. Dictators do not make the best allies. Freedom and prosperity go together."

This was part of William Hague's foreword to the first annual report of the Conservative Party Human Rights Commission which analysed the human rights situation in 18 countries, and ranked them in a "hall of shame" of the worst countries for freedoms, the rule of law, and human rights violations (see table below for overall rankings).

The recommendations of the report were to:

• Appoint a Human Rights Minister (see Sam Burke's 100 Policies submission on this)
• Make it a requirement and objective for diplomats and embassies to support dissident groups against rogue governments (see Ben Rogers' review of Mark Palmer's book advocating this)
• Be consistent on arms trade policy
• Ensure systematic violators of human rights be barred from the UN Human Rights Council and grand resolutions such as 1674 and 1325 should actually be implemented fully
• Strengthen the Community of Democracies
• Consider military intervention, as a last resort, to stop major crimes of humanity 

Tories down to 34% in Populus survey

A Populus poll for this morning's Times gives the Tories a narrow 1% lead over Labour.  As noted by UK Polling Report the slightly disappointing change for the Tories is that the party's share of the vote is down to 34% after being at 36% for the previous four Populus polls.  Whatever the exact Tory lead might be it is clear that the Tory position is not strengthening.  The overall Tory lead in ConservativeHome's poll of polls is now just 3%.

A majority of Tory members will accept David Cameron’s modernisation project so long as it keeps the party ahead in the polls.  His period of maximum danger will arise in the period after Gordon Brown’s near certain election as Labour leader.  If Brown enjoys a sustained honeymoon effect there must be a real risk that members will decide that the sacrifices of traditional Conservatism won’t have been worthwhile.  The comfort for David Cameron in The Times' poll is that the Tory lead appears to grow to 7% if Gordon Brown became leader but we've previously discussed the unreliability of such 'what it?' polling.

* The ConservativeHome poll of polls has been adjusted slightly to take account of revised ICM data from their last poll for the News of the World.

Cameron highlights council tax in get-tough interview with Daily Mail

On the day that he embraced the toughest of analyses prepared by his predecessor Iain Duncan Smith, David Cameron has also used a wide-ranging (and very encouraging) interview with the Daily Mail to signal a determination to stand up for 'middle class values': 

"The middle classes are the backbone of the country and I completely understand their concerns.  It is who my constituents are made up of and I have a real sense of their anger at the moment over rising council taxes, crime, dirty streets, the lack of safety; concerns about finding schools for their children, dirty hospitals...This is the context of my life as an MP.  What I would say to strivers is that I don't want to let them down by making false promises about tax that I can't deliver. A Conservative Party led by me will be able to ease the pressure on hardworking families of middle Britain.  I want to take away the endless controls and bureaucracy of local government which is causing this rise in council tax, the single most unpopular tax there is at the moment — and people fear another great clunking fist of council tax rises. I need to work harder to get that message across, and I accept that."

The reference to council tax is interesting.  An ICM survey for the TaxPayers' Alliance found out that the regressive council tax was Britain's least popular tax.  Mr Cameron has welcomed the Kirklees approach to cutting council tax for pensioners.  Any chance of the rest of us getting some relief, Mr C?

"There is no welfare scheme in existence that fights poverty better than a two-parent family."

The report from Iain Duncan Smith's social justice policy group is covered widely in this morning's media and there is a warm welcome for its findings from traditionally Conservative newspapers.  Interestingly leader-writers at The Independent are also supportive and they dismiss yesterday's nonsense that IDS was being negative about gay families.  Most attention has been given to the report's findings on family breakdown but the report identifies five major paths to poverty.  A blog posting cannot do justice to the findings of a 300,000 word report but posted below are a few salient facts for each of the report's paths to poverty:

• Alcohol consumption has doubled in fifty years and by 15 per cent in the last five years alone. Alcohol is more than 50 per cent cheaper than it was in 1980. Young women have doubled their consumption in the last 10 years.
• 8.2 million people in the UK have an alcohol disorder and over a million children are living in homes with alcoholics. Over 45 per cent of 14-15 year olds have consumed more than five drinks on a single occasion in the last 30 days. Between 3,000 to 4,000 young people aged 11 and over were admitted to hospital for alcohol related illness in 2004.
• Around 1.5 million children are growing up in substance-abusing households – over a million with parents abusing alcohol and around 350,000 where there is drug-taking.
• Nearly three million of the adult population have some form of alcohol dependency and 8 million have an alcohol use disorder.
• Respondents with a history of drug or alcohol addiction were more than twice as likely to have experienced personal debt than the general population.
• Iain Duncan Smith's conclusion: "Britain is experiencing an explosion in addiction.  The current scale of prevalence of alcohol and drugs is historically unprecedented in its combined presence in the population. Young adults are engaging in a new culture of intoxication."

• Through means testing and tax credits, Labour has prioritised shifting those just below the poverty line to just above it. However, this policy has led to more families dropping back to below 40 per cent of median income, widening the social divide.
• Much of the reduction in unemployment is due to individuals moving into jobs with short hours and low pay, meaning that they must rely on tax credits to avoid poverty.
• In their 2001 manifesto, Labour boasted of one million children lifted out of poverty. By 2005, Ministers were claiming two million. In fact, the official 2005 figure was 700,000.
• Iain Duncan Smith's conclusion: "It is not enough just to keep people from falling into the abyss of absolute poverty. To remain one nation, it is essential we should all have the chance to climb the ladder, but to do so with a sense of togetherness."

• Despite huge increases (in funding), this country has one of the highest levels of educational inequality in the Western world and the attainment of our lowest achievers has not improved significantly since 1998.
• Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are five times more likely to fail academically compared with their peers.
• Children who have suffered family breakdown are 75% more likely to suffer educational failure.
• 55,000 pupils miss school without permission every day.
• Iain Duncan Smith's conclusion: "New Labour’s strategy may be good for middle class children, but it is bad for society. There has been very little done to tackle the most ingrained forms of educational failure."

• Some 10.7 million people in Britain suffer relationship problems as a result of debt.
• Personal lending has now reached £1.25 trillion, the equivalent to an average debt per household of £50,000.
• A recent Bank of England survey estimated that nearly 6 million people felt they were currently struggling with their finances.
• Iain Duncan Smith's conclusion: "An energy crisis, a recession in the US, a global terrorist incident or a substantial fall in house prices could change the economic climate plunging many more people into a severe debt crisis."

• The dissolution of cohabiting partnerships is the main driver behind lone parent family formation in  the UK. Nearly one in two cohabiting parents split up before their child’s fifth birthday, compared to one in twelve married parents.
• Three quarters of family breakdown affecting young children now involves unmarried parents.
• The impact on crime is illustrated by the fact that 70% of young offenders come from lone-parent families and levels of all anti-social behaviour and delinquency are higher in children from separated families than in those from intact families.
• Family breakdown represents a significant economic burden. The cost to the country is now ell over £20 billion per annum.
• Iain Duncan Smith's conclusion: "We reject the comfortable mantra that policy can or should by wholly morally neutral on the grounds that this is unworkable in practice. Although moralising is to be avoided, committed relationships are essential for the social ecology of the family, the community and the country. Families which are formed on the basis of these should therefore be encouraged."

***
David Cameron has welcomed the report as "powerful and convincing".  It's a big day for the Tory leader as he embraces a traditional conservative belief in the family after distancing himself from some other traditional Tory beliefs in his first year as leader.

Few will question the social justice policy group's finding that family breakdown is a driving force behind social injustice.  More controversial will be IDS' suggestion that the erosion of marriage is the driving force behind family breakdown.  Radio 4 Today reporter Norman Smith produced a good analogy this morning.  Explaining the report's findings to Jim Naughtie he said that Mr Duncan Smith hoped to question society's indifference to marriage in the same way that society's unquestioning acceptance of multiculturalism had been overturned in the last year.  This report is a statement of the problem - solutions will come in the SJPG's report later in the year.  But if you want a summary of the solution see the clipping on the right from Fraser Nelson's column in yesterday's News of the World: "There is no welfare scheme in existence that fights poverty better than a two-parent family."  Absolutely true.

Related link: American compassionate conservatism can still teach us a thing or two

General Pinochet is dead

"He may be a sonofabitch but he's our sonofabitch" was a favourite soundbite of the Cold War era.  As the west attempted to 'contain communism' we formed alliances with regimes that had dubious human rights records.  One of those regimes was that of General Pinochet of Chile, who has died today.  Pinochet's admirers recognise his Friedmanite reforms whilst dictatorial ruler, the fact that he resigned once a democratic government had been elected and that he built a nation which remains one of the most prosperous in Latin America.  His more numerous critics remember concentration camps and more than two thousand deaths at the hands of his security apparatus.  It certainly was not a happy time for the Conservative Party when Margaret Thatcher celebrated her Falklands War ally during his period of house arrest in the UK.

Tomorrow sees Tory MPs William Hague and Gary Streeter launch the first annual report of the Conservative Party Human Rights Commission.  It will be interesting to see if the Commission is willing to criticise human rights abusing nations in the world today that are otherwise partners for Britain in economic and political matters.  Sam Coates will be submitting a full report on the CPHRC's work tomorrow.

IDS, gay rights and family breakdown

The British press is getting worse.  Jack-of-all-trade journalists appear increasingly unable to look into the meat of a story.  All they want is a cheap and dirty headline.  Greg Clark's recent use of a Polly Toynbee quotation to describe poverty is headlined as if Tories had embraced the Guardian columnist's whole political outlook.  Tony Blair slips during an interview and the whole media scream that he has admitted that the Iraq war has been a disaster - although any reading of the transcript would lead any grown-up to believe that he still believes that the liberation of Iraq was right and justified.  Grown-up journalism is increasingly rare, unfortunately, and we have another example of the tabloidisation of every British newspaper in today's Telegraph.  "Gays as parents?  They're irrelevant, says IDS" is the headline above Melissa Kite's account of an interview with the former Conservative leader.  The BBC has taken up the story and I'm disappointed that Iain Dale has rushed to judgement, too.

IDS could have been more careful with the phrasing of his answers but I've spoken to him and Melissa Kite spent much of her interview trying to talk about gay rights issues even though a tiny number of families with children are headed by gay couples.  Iain Duncan Smith was there to talk about his social justice policy group's analysis of data on family breakdown (reported here yesterday).  It was in that context that he said that less than half of one per cent of Britons were gay.  If you look at that context he was clearly talking about the number of gay families with children.  Gay parenting may be on the increase but it remains a very small proportion.

For me there are two issues here: Iain Duncan Smith's views and the importance of the family:

Iain Duncan Smith's views: Iain is not homophobic.  There is much talk of his opposition to gay adoption when he was leader (rightly or wrongly he believed that the most vulnerable children should not be placed in unconventional families).  There is much less recognition of the fact that he abandoned his party's support for Section 28 when he was leader.  He introduced a proposal (rejected by Labour) that would not have focused on explicit materials of a homosexual character but would have stopped explicit materials of any character.  As leader he promoted opportunities for gay people to become Tory candidates and as ex-leader trekked down to Cornwall to give support to the embattled Ashley Crossley, who had been the victim of anti-gay feeling.

The importance of the family: Melissa Kite's interview is a clear indication that the metropolitan media would rather talk about their preoccupations than the issues affecting most Britons.  I once was talking with Danny Finkelstein when we were both at CCO and said that I'd happily see gay people get just about every right they desired from serving in the armed forces to civil unions if only public policymakers could focus on doing something to stem the breakdown of relationships between fathers and mothers.  The issue of family breakdown is the pressing issue in Britain - not gay rights.  The Conservatives issue a landmark report on the scale of misery and underachievement caused by family breakdown and Melissa Kite wants to talk about gay rights.  She should be ashamed of herself.  It really is pathetic.  If you want to understand what Iain is really trying to say I recommend his article in The Sunday Times.

The best Tory blogs

Iain Dale should be congratulated.  Bloggers4Labour have just given him their 'Wooden Spoon Award' in their 'Blog Awards'.  I'd put that down to a lot of green-eyed jealousy.

Sam Coates recently suggested that there should be an awards scheme for the best Tory blogs, too.  I agree.  Although Iain has already produced his own list of best Tory blogs I think we should have a more democratic assessment.  Suggest some categories please in the thread below and then we'll seek some nominations and then get a future ConservativeHome Members' Panel to decide the winners.

My suggested categories would be: Best Blog, Best Blog Scoop, Best Campaigning Blog, Best Parliamentarian's Blog, Best Councillor's Blog and Funniest Blog.  What do you think?

Can David Cameron resist Iain Duncan Smith's marriage proposal?

The Daily Mail has advance sight of a 300,000 word report into 'Breakdown Britain', written by Iain Duncan Smith and his social justice policy group.  The report estimates "the cost of family collapse including the burden of welfare benefits on the taxpayer, the amount of debt incurred by single parents trying to survive, and the price to society of coping with associated problems like drug abuse" at £20 billion every year.

Peter Oborne dedicates his column to the report and writes that it will show that while Britain has never been more prosperous, "a new underclass has emerged over the last generation and is growing with terrifying speed and menace.  Drugs are an endemic problem, while drunkenness has now reached a scale not seen since Edwardian times.  Social mobility has ground to a halt and educational failure is normal.  Duncan Smith argues that none of these issues can be understood until the collapse of the family is taken into account."

The 'Breakdown Britain' report does not contain policy prescriptions.  They will come later.  This report is squarely focused upon the scale of the problem.  Oborne concludes with the implications for Project Cameron:

"For while there have been undoubted successes during his first 12 months in office, the new Tory leader has been constantly open to the charge of lurching towards conventional thinking and an already over-populated centre ground.  The policy implications of Duncan Smith's survey demand that Cameron takes a leap in the opposite direction.  His decision about how to react may well determine whether his leadership of the Conservative Party succeeds or - like Duncan Smith before him - ultimately fails."

My own belief is that David Cameron will take that leap in the opposite direction.  Marriage was a centrepiece of his October party conference speech.  He recently identified absent fathers as a cause of violent criminality.  There will be some Tories like Tim Yeo who will continue to resist the overwhelming evidence that strong families underpin social justice but these words from David Cameron suggests that the Tory leader does 'get it':

"Marriage is a great institution, and we should support it.  I'm not naïve in thinking that somehow the state can engineer happy families with this policy or that tax break.  All I can tell you is what I think.  And what I think is this.  There's something special about marriage.  It's not about religion.  It's not about morality.  It's about commitment.  When you stand up there, in front of your friends and your family, in front of the world, whether it's in a church or anywhere else, what you're doing really means something.  Pledging yourself to another means doing something brave and important.  You are making a commitment.  You are publicly saying: it's not just about me, me me anymore.  It is about we - together, the two of us, through thick and thin.  That really matters."

Related link: You can't beat poverty without supporting marriage, says IDS

Labour scrapes the bottom of the barrel again...

After comparing William Hague to a foetus you'd have thought Labour might have learnt the lesson about mean-spirited personal attacks on Conservative politicians...

After Alastair Campbell et al had compared Michael Howard to Shylock you'd have thought Labour might have learnt the lesson about mean-spirited personal attacks on Conservative politicians...

After Sion Simon's YouTube nasty against David Cameron you'd have thought that Labour might have learnt the lesson about mean-spirited personal attacks on Conservative politicians...

Praguetory has the story on Labour still not learning that down'n'nasty only reflects badly on them >>>

Happy Christmas from MEPs Chris Heaton-Harris and Roger Helmer

Click here and giggle!

In defence of The Union

ConservativeHome's tip of the week is to recommend a subscription to The Business.  It's a great read every week with insightful analysis of the economy, domestic politics and international affairs.  Its free market, Eurosceptic worldview should hold many attractions for Conservatives.  Allister Heath has just become the magazine's Editor.  At just 29 it's a rapid promotion but Allister is largely responsible for The Business' edgy, must-read commentary.  My warmest congratulations to him.

This week's Business (not yet online) contains an editorial in defence of The Union between Scotland and the rest of the UK.  The editorial concludes with a brief survey of the dangers of separation for England:

• Probable loss of the UK's seat on the UN Security Council;
• Without Scotland there is nowhere to base the nuclear deterrent;
• Around one-third of the British Army's fighting force is Scottish;
• The end of North Sea oil and gas.

Its conclusion:

"Scotland without England, of course, would be an irrelevance; a diminshed state on the margins of Europe in thrawl to a burned-out socialist ideology.  But England would be the loser too, in prestige, importance and power.  The truth is that, 300 years on, both have more to gain by being together than drifting apart.  The remedy to the discontent that will sour the 300th anniversary of the Act of Union is not divorce but marriage counselling... England needs to realise that it will lose a lot more than it thinks if it loses Scotland.  The Scots need to realise that they cannot live off massive public spending forever.  A sense of fairness must be reintroduced between both nations."

There is 'somewhere else' for discontented Tories to go

It is said that the now 32% of Tories who are dissatisfied with David Cameron have nowhere else to go.  The number who stayed-at-home for the Bromley by-election showed that the dissatisfied did have another option.  Joining UKIP is a second option and today's Times highlights the case of three Tory officers who have chosen this option.  The three Tories are Toby Horton, former Chairman of William Hague's local party, Mark Hudson, on the official candidates' list, and Kevin Davidson Hall, former Tory candidate for Peterborough.  Anthony Browne, who wrote The Times' story, obviously does not pay enough attention to ConservativeHome as he makes no mention of our hugely relevant Monday finding that UKIP was the favourite choice of party activists when it came to mentioning the other political party closest to their views.  If David Cameron does not adopt a more Eurosceptic outlook - and certainly if he fails to deliver on his revised EPP pledge - he will only risk more leakage of supporters to Nigel Farage's party. 

For most Tories, however, UKIP candidates are the Europhiles' useful idiots.  Again and again they deprive more Eurosceptic Conservative candidates of a majority over LibDem and Labour candidates.  1997 taught the Conservative Party that a fringe party like the Referendum Party does not need to do spectacularly in order to deny us victory in crucial marginal seats.

David Cameron makes strong attack on EU's culture of hopelessness

In Brussels today David Cameron is billed to make a strong attack on the European Union's "culture of hopelessness" (Daily Mail).  His four priorities for EU policy are summarised in the box on the right (click on it to enlarge) and are on conservatives.com.  They neatly combine Euroscepticism with modernising messages on the environment and poverty.

It is no accident that Mr Cameron has chosen to make this Eurosceptic speech one day after his first anniversary as Tory leader.  The speech the day before the anniversary - on education - although it disappointed in media terms was, like this one, intended to reassure traditional Conservative voters that David Cameron shared a commitment to the same issues.

After promising a grittier Conservatism in year two of his leadership to BBC's Nick Robinson, the Conservative leader promised a 'change of gear' to Tory MPs at a special parliamentary gathering last night.

At a meeting with Conservative MEPs later today he is expected to say that he remains determined to lead them out of the EPP after the next European Parliamentary Elections.  He will encourage Timothy Kirkhope's team to accelerate efforts to build deeper links with the Czech ODS (our principal partners in that endeavour) and to develop a new agenda for Europe within the Movement for European Reform (the grouping intended to lay the groundwork for the new ODS-Tory grouping).  Eurosceptic MEPs complain that Timothy Kirkhope is doing little to prepare the ground for EPP exit.

Melanie Phillips on David Cameron's first year

I had lunch with Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips yesterday and she recorded this five minute assessment of David Cameron's first year as 'Blue Labour leader' for 18 Doughty Street Talk TV.

DC@1: The Ten Troughs

In the fourth of a series of ten point guides to David Cameron's first year as Tory leader, ConservativeHome looks at the 'ten biggest troughs' of the last twelve months.

1. It didn't take one month before the right-of-centre press started to worry and worry again and again about Project Cameron.  Lord Tebbit launched his first serious attack on David Cameron's leadership in January when he encouraged the Tory leader to focus more on the bread and butter issues of pensions, schools and hospitals.  He would later accuse the Tory leader of trying to "purge the memory of Thatcherism" and of alienating bedrock voters.
2. The first results of ConservativeHome's poll of grassroots members confirmed membership hostility to the A-list and to the leader's policy on new grammar schools.  On many subsequent occasions the poll would illustrate the gap between Project Cameron and large numbers of grassroots activists.
3. David Cameron's attack on UKIP members as "cloest racists" and "fruitcakes" is widely condemned and gives UKIP the oxygen of publicity.
4. The MIrror's photo scoop that showed a Government driver following the bicycling Tory leader with clean shirt, polished shoes and briefcase - and which was later acknowledged as regrettable by the Tory leader (click on image on right to enlarge).
5. Constant problems with the A-list including a shortage of women applicants, the unwillingness of A-listers to apply for difficult seats and a determination by local associations to choose non A-listers.
6. A scribbled oak tree became the new Tory logo although the party could have saved itself the £40,000 charge if it had used the one ConservativeHomies devised for free.  The logo was leaked ten days before it was due to be launched.
7. The lowest moment of the year came when the LibDems came close to unseating the Tories in the Bromley & Chislehurst by-election.  Since that by-election the Tories have done very little to address the danger of stay-at-home-supporters.
8. The delay to the promise to leave the EPP wasn't just about Europe - for many grassroots Tories it struck at David Cameron's reputation for trustworthiness.
9. The delay to the unsuccessful hunt for a London Mayoral candidate - predicted and predictable and part of CCHQ's continuing inadequacy.
10. Despite suggestions to the contrary, ConservativeHome calculated that Tory membership has probably fallen since David Cameron's election.

The first ten point guide in this series looked at The Peaks of DC's first year, the second at 'Modernising Moments' and the third at 'Reassurance Moments'.  The fifth and final post in this series will look at The Quotations of the last year.

Open thread on pre-Budget report

4.45pm:

Matthew Elliott, Chief Executive of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said: "The best way to secure living standards long-term is by cutting tax and removing politicians from managing the economy and public services.  But Brown's PBR was a throwback to the 60s with its focus on how politicians can solve everything and boost science if they take more control.  This has never worked in the past and will mean that Britain keeps losing ground to the US and Asian economies.  It's Harold Wilson all over again."

George Osborne: "He lets it be known with nods and winks that he will end the spin and eye-catching initiatives of the Blair years. But let there be no mistake; they were his years too - the Blair-Brown years.  The years of the clunking fist - the hospital cuts were his cuts, the failing schools are his failures, the pensions which were destroyed were destroyed by him.  The truth is this: Labour can only be new once and if the public want change they're going to have to vote for change."

Andrew Haldenby of Reform: “Today’s announcement suggests that the Government is profoundly divided on education.  Last week Tony Blair argued that better learning comes from reform, based on stronger parental choice and better teaching.  Today Gordon Brown has ignored reform and spoken only of extra spending.  The evidence is on the Prime Minister’s side: schools spending has already risen in this decade from £26 billion to £43 billion without any impact on the trend of exam standards.”

PMQs: Iraq and education dominate

David Cameron began by quoting the next US Defence Secretary's assessment that the coalition is currently losing the war in Iraq.  The Tory leader said that Tony Blair should be talking more honestly to the British people and not waiting on the US Government to lead opinion.  Sir Ming's questioning was very similar.  Unusually the LibDem leader summoned up real passion in his questions and put it to the Prime Minister that Britain had virtually no say in policy towards Iraq and that all decisions were taken in Washington.  Tony Blair promised that Britain was determined to defeat the terrorists wherever they threatened Britain's national interests.  He said it had been in the national interest to topple Saddam Hussein and to stand with America in the post-9/11 world.

Following up on yesterday's 'back to basics message on education' Mr Cameron's second set of questions focused on education and failures in primary and secondary schooling.

The best line came from a Labour backbencher - wondering if Tony Blair could bring 'our boys home by Christmas'... he wasn't referring to our overstrectched troops in Basra but our cricketers in Australia.  Classic image in today's Sun btw on the Ashes' 'wombles'.