ICM gives Cameron a 9% lead but suggests Tories are focusing on the wrong issues

The ICM/ News of the World headline numbers are the good news for the Tory leader as Fleet Street accelerates its efforts to mark David Cameron's first year in charge.  A 9% lead puts the Tories within spitting distance of a parliamentary majority.  The more discouraging news is in ICM's findings that Gordon Brown is the most popular choice for being Prime Minister.  An ICM spokesman told the News of the World that:

"This poll shows David is a likeable personality. But people want a PM to be statesmanlike and deal with big issues.  It seems Gordon Brown is perceived as more of a leader of this quality."

This finding contrasts with other very recent findings, however, and should be taken with a healthy pinch of salt for all of the reasons discussed here.

Francis Maude welcomes the survey results, saying: "We have laid the foundations, now we have to build the house."  But what house, Mr Maude?  The ICM survey finds that voters worry that the Tories have the wrong priorities (confirming Friday's YouGov conclusion).   65% want David Cameron to focus on illegal immigration, 48% on income tax, 48% on poverty but only 27% on green taxes.  The reaction editorial from Britain's best-selling newspaper: "[David Cameron] can stick to his guns and risk losing the election.  Or start listening to voters.  It really is make up your mind time."

Comments

[Ted]

A year ago 68% of members voted for Cameron, 32% for Davis, a year later 67% satisfied, 33% disastisfied. Siren calls from disatisfied to get back to immigration, Europe & law n order.

Agree we should respond to the Governments actions or failures on those - and Davis, Grieve & others do this well. We recently did launch a policy on immigration, not very different from the 2005 one (shorn of some underliverable inanities) - and because we are a cuddly Party there was none of the attacks we saw last year. Reid has adopted much of our manifesto anyway so its less contentious.

Cameron does need resolve, leadership and better expound the vision he has for this country - but that doesn't mean withdrawing into the laager and talking about those issues people trust us on already.

[TomTom]

We recently did launch a policy on immigration

Not really sure it matters.........I frankly don't think the public see any solution to immigration from any political party..

In fact I think many voters now see the role of political parties as being to entertain us as we find a convenient iceberg to ram........

The German word Politikverdrossenheit describes complete disgust and cynicism about Politics as a whole - that is far more widespread than is understood and I doubt anyone believes any party will deliver on any policy except the ones that have been paid for by lobby groups in cash.

What is in big trouble is the entire party political system; we now have a track record on voting fraud, corruption, lobby interests, and a political class which lies systematically to voters and then proceeds to operate to its own agenda arrogantly ignoring the electorate as a whole.

It is hard to see any discernible difference between the major parties in this respect

[Deborah]

I understand there will be some news on the direction of education policy this week. Let's hope this is the start of some substance (and not a moment too soon).

[C List and Proud]

Read David Green's piece in the ST comment pages and you can see why some Conservatives are frustrated.

This is a clear validation of the sort of education policies we have been half-heartedly, not promoting for 8 years, but which, with some leadership, could gain huge support across the political spectrum. Even the Trade Unions in Sweden support education vouchers now, yet we seem to have dropped them.

I doubt it is the hangers and floggers who are disappointed - they are always disappointed about something - it is the younger, radical, liberal Conservatives who feel frustrated about the abandonment of what works in favour of what the public claim to want.

The polls told us that the public didn't want stringent economic controls and the neutering of union power in the 80s. They knew it was needed though and we built a coalition of support around doing what was right, not necessarily what was popular.

That was leadership. It gained respect and it won four consequetive elections.

I do hope that Cameron is not going to sign us up to the sort of concensus politics which imposed nationalised industry, comprehensive education and the worst heatlhcare system in Europe on the people of this country.

That's a recipe for disaster as all it will do is allow Labout to paint him as a patrician tory toff. The worst thing about which may well be that it is true.

[Jack Stone]

Regardless of what the polls say the party would be committing electoral suicide if it started to go back to the old obsesssions of Europe, tax cuts and immigration.
We need to follow the stratgedy that David is following and widen our appeal beyond the core vote which seems from the polls is being done.
The right can huff and puff but they should not be allowed to blow the good ship Cameron off course as its increasingly looking like the course DC is navigating is one to victory.

[Opinicus]

@Jack Stone

Why would the party be commiting suicide by talking about EU low tax and Immigration regardless of what the polls say . I thought your lot lived and died by what the polls say.
How does it look like DC is navigating to victory when the Yougov tracker poll for the Telegraph (easily the most reliable poll at the last 3 GEs) shows the state of the Parties no different to June and the Conservatives still five short of the 43% needed to win in 2007.

Telling a lie often enough doesn't make it true, even if fools come to believe it so.

[Josh]

Based on this latest poll, the Conservatives will win an 18 seat majority. And yet Labour are still over-represented.

I think I can appreciate the strategy of trying to soften the party's image. It's probably about time to start framing rightist policies in leftist terms. For example, dropping the bottom rate of tax will help the poor. Dropping trade barriers will assist rapid development in the third world. Small government will limit the power of the elites to control our lives.

BTW, has anyone notice that the media can't get enough of all the environment stuff but as soon as DC goes on about it, it's just a "feel good" issue. Not that I disagree, but it just seems a bit of a double standard inflicted on poor Dave.

[DavidTBreaker]

Maude and Cameron are building their house, but have they got planning permission? I do hope it wasn't a green field site...

[Toryboy]

I think we've come to the stage in 'Project Cameron' where we can start to discuss traditional values again, we have the public ear again and now its time to build the right side of the house as well as the left side.

[Denis Cooper]

"... the old obsesssions of Europe, tax cuts and immigration." I know exactly what you mean, Jack, stupid distractions like "Will my children grow up to be part of an ethnic minority in their own country?" (answer, "probably") and "Who actually governs this country?" (answer, "increasingly, the EU"). Those aren't things which matter to the electorate. Still, I guess even you'd agree that tax is fairly important and something which DC should address when the time is ripe.

[matt wright]

The strategy so far has been broadly the right one and has removed the nasty label and got people listening. We need now to extend the thinking about social responsibility and illustrate it with some firm positions that map out what modern Conservative stand for. We should focus on law & order, health and education. I think we would be very unwise to go back to ranting on about Immigration, tax and Europe ( even though they are important they are less so to most floating voters in the context of how they view Tories),

Matt

[Yet Another Anon]

even though they are important they are less so to most floating voters
It usually is assumed that floating voters are in this mythical centre, actually floating voters hold all kinds of views, indeed some of the floating voters are the most mercenary out there and may well be only interested in how policy changes are going to benefit them and their families, or even just them; others may well be Labour or Liberal Democrat voters previously, some others might have been voting on other issues for smaller parties, in fact there are the non-voters who might consider voting for a party and that too could be for any number of reasons.

[Denis Cooper]

One might hope that the Conservatives would not be "ranting on" about anything.

But it's funny how certain vital policy issues can't be discussed without it always being characterised as "ranting", more usually by Labour or LibDem supporters.

[Sam Wright]

"Regardless of what the polls say the party would be committing electoral suicide if it started to go back to the old obsesssions of Europe, tax cuts and immigration."

Why are these 3 topics lumped together as if they are all one? They are completely separate

Immigration - very important, majority of the public against labours mass uncontrolled immigration agenda, we need to be making more strong noise about it. And not whimping out whenever a liberal challenges us

Europe - I don't think anyone cares

Tax - Tax cuts are associated with spending cuts so I don't think we should be talking about this.

So please keep these topics separate!

[matt wright]

Maybe we need to use some of the "and politics" ideas or just give each hard issue a positive spin so as to take all of us forward as one,

Matt