DC@1: The Ten Peaks

In the first of a few ten point guides to David Cameron's first year as Tory leader, ConservativeHome looks at the 'ten peaks' of the last twelve months...

1. One day after becoming leader, David Cameron shone at PMQs and produced his memorable 'You were the future once' line against Tony Blair.  He also started as he meant to go on with questions about climate change and attacks on Punch and Judy politics (Punch's stick to be readopted later).
2. Cameron's election gave the Tories an immediate lead in the opinion polls and reasonable leads continue for most of his first year.  At the end of twelve months of Project Cameron the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls gives the Tories a 3.75% lead.
3. The Cameron effect (with a little help from Mr Johnnie Walker) sees Charles Kennedy resign as LibDem leader.
4. In January David Cameron was named as the 92nd most sexy man in the world.  David Cameron continually took the party into territory it had long struggled to win - a good interview in GQ, an invite to David Beckham's World Cup party, that Jonathan Ross interview and a top ranking from TimeOut illustrated why the Conservative leader became Britain's most wanted party guest (according to Tatler, anyway).
5. A constant ability to confuse Labour.  From the beginning Labour have struggled to find the right critique of David Cameron and his Project.  Labour's lowest point came with the Chameleon Dave campaign and a poll that likened the Blairs to a snake and a leech.
6. The passage of Tony Blair's Education Bill was only secured with Tory support.
7. Labour's triple whammy Wednesday saw Charles Clarke (prisoner release scandal), Patricia Hewitt (jeered by nurses) and John Prescott (adulterous affair) gift the Tories a huge advantage for the local elections.
8. The local council results which saw big gains at Labour's expense (particularly in London) and no progress for the becalmed LibDems.
9. The next best day comes in September with the meltdown in the leadership of Tony Blair - the Conservative Party's deadliest political opponent - and Cameron's astute non-reaction.
10. David Cameron's commitment to the environment saw the issue propelled to the top of the British political agenda (and was recognised at the ConservativeHome Awards).

Other ten point guides will focus on modernising and then reassurance moments; 'troughs' and memorable quotes.

Comments

[poll watcher]

The Conservative Home poll of polls is inaccurate. It includes the outlier Communicate Research poll which was not weighted and therefore produced a Labour lead. Despite ignoring Mori because it does not weight, CR was included without any justification at all.

The weighted CR data would have produced a Conservative lead.

The last two major polls show Tory leads of 5% and 9%. The lead is substantially more than 3.6% and the CR poll is every bit as worthless as an unweighted Mori poll.

[HF]

I agree with poll watcher that the CR poll is suspect. Also these consistent leads are our best period in 15 years.

[George Hinton]

Nothing like a bit of self-congratulatory plaudits.
Unfortunately this cynic is not happy to go with the disinformation. NuLab have presented the party with a series of own goals for most of this year, which has seen a miserable attempt to capitalise on them.
I am not interested in the niche groups who have voted him this or that, or anything else.
The nub of the matter is....is he electable, has Dave connected with the electorate, not the centrists and SIG's, but that big unhappy bunch of people who have been ripped off by NuLab and are desparate for a saviour and salvation from taxes, death duties, stealth taxes,the smash and grab on our pension funds, inflation, a declining NHS, NHS lottery on services, Eco taxes which are dressed up new taxes, Crime, Lack of policing, an inadequate CJS, lack of jails, illegal and legal immigration, Terrorism, big brother syndrome with ID cards and data bases of personal info, and the lack of transparancy with our membership of the EU. One still has to mention corrupt and mendacious politicians, who have gold plated salaries and pensions and who are throughly untrustworthy.
Still a long way to go for Dave.

[Matt Davis]

Dream on self deluders, look at the far more comprehensive and analytical item on Political betting.com regarding the polls and the real world electoral outcomes that they would lead to.

[Jack Stone]

If these idiots who continually post about how badly the party are doing and how we have a closet socialist as leader had there way and we went back to the same old policies that lost us the last two elections and had a tired out old right-winger like Davis as leader the game would already be up and rather than looking like possible winners of the next election we would already be looking like certain losers.
Its about time the moaners, those who only want a Conservative government that will give them everything they want, the closet UKIP supporters who want the party to fail in the certain vain hope that UKIP can rise from there position of being a Rochdale of the political world to a Chelsea or Manchester United and all who continually talk down the party and the next Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, to borrow a phrase from Norman Tebbitt, got on there bikes and found themselves another party!

[Esbonio]

Mr Stone

I did not realise that being right wing and Tory were meant to be mutually exclusive; if that is the case (and I am not entirely convinced it is), then it must be a recent development attributable to Cameron, his followers, and sundry socialists and cultural Marxists stirring things up.

[Michael McGowan]

Jack, you will probably get your political(death)wish. They will get on their bikes and find themselves another party, which could have a pretty interesting impact on the outcome of a general election, especially when you add the abstainers, of which I was proud to be one in 2005. You cling superstitiously to your motheaten comfort blsnket i.e. electing a smarmy leftwing patrician is somehow an improvement. Anyone with even a cursory knowledge of the Tory Party's performance in government post-1945 knows that this is pure fantasy. Even if Cameron is elected, all we will get is a continuation of Blairite failure, in all likelihood buttressed with Blairite lies and authoritarianism.

[Sean Fear]

"to borrow a phrase from Norman Tebbitt, got on there bikes and found themselves another party!"

And who would you be left with if they took you at your word?

[jorgen]

esbonio and Michael McGowan are right. When it comes to an actual election, Cameron is likely to find that the votes from the traditional Conservatives - which he apparently takes for granted - just went elsewhere.

Big Government will run the UK into the gutter. Better to let Labour have the honour of doing this and become unelectable for at least 12 years.

[Shug]

A whole year and still not been found out. Conservatives as the party of the people, A-list candidates, representative of the populus...brilliant. By the way, how many old etonian and old harrovians are there in the shadow cabinet?

[JT]

Pretty thin pickings...

[malcolm]

For me David Camerons greatest achievement is that the Conservative Party are now listened to by the public at large in a way that totally eluded the previous three leaders.
I suspect 2007 will see whether he can take the majority of the party and the country with him.I certainly hope he can.

[TomTom]

that UKIP can rise from there position of being a Rochdale of the political world to a Chelsea or Manchester United

I don't quite follow - Rochdale is somehow inferior because it is in Lancashire and Chelsea swish because it is owned by that Russian who kept Greg Barker on his payroll.

Machester United is owned by an american billionaire and Chelsea by a Russian one...........which one should buy the Conservative Party Jack ?

[matt wright]

Agree with Malcolm, DC has got the party listened to and stopped the negatives amongst swing voters (you know that physical recoil one got when you mentioned you were a Tory). Now he needs to translate this into an idea of what we stand for in a way that most voters immediately recognise as a positive way forward for our nation. I think the idea of socila responsibility is the right foundation stone for that. It is a very exciting time to be a Conservative,

Matt

[Jack Stone]

The Conservative Party will be elected at the next election because it will not frighten the life out of the moderate majority who make up the electorate which it as done since 1997.
I believe that thankfully the days of the right are dead and you will only win elections by fighting in the centre ground and appealing to the moderate majority.
People have two choices. They can change under David Cameron and become more moderate, keeping fundamental principles but appealing to a wider electorate or they can have Gordon Brown as Prime Minister for the next ten years. Its as simple as that. The party can not go back and repaeat the mistakes its made talking and appealing to itself and its own supporters and ignoring everyone else.

[anon]

Jack. An honest question. What happens if we lose the next election. I am not picking a fight here I am honestly curious. We have a potentially long timeframe before the next election during which a lot could happen.

[Michael McGowan]

Jack, I didn't vote for the Conservative Party in 2005 because for all the sound and fury, its manifesto largely amounted to bedding down Labour's failures. So far, it looks like more of the same from Dave...only more so. I assume that the "fundemntal principles" you refer to are the ones which guided Harold MacMillan and Ted Heath so well: tax, spend, waste and fail. Four nice round monosyllables....so even you can understand them.

[Esbonio]

Jack Stone says "I believe that thankfully the days of the right are dead". Is he for real?

[Yet Another Anon]

Also these consistent leads are our best period in 15 years.
Comparing a time when the Conservative Party were coming out of a long spell in mid term doldrums after 12-13 years in government with a spell when after 9.5 years in opposition mid term troubles for Labour are starting is really a comparison left to the most insane of psephologists - it isn't comparing like with like after all even comparing positions of parties from a perspective of similar points in the electoral cycle and indeed even why people are giving the answers that they are (or indeed refusing to answer) is frequently not obvious in polls - after all in 1992 many people were simply refusing to answer pollsters and in the end as well as a definite shift to the Conservatives there was also the fact that the polls were simply wrong - in the 1980's and 1990's there were many who said they voted Labour or Liberal because it was seen as trendy and then voted Conservative or didn't vote and it is just as likely that after 9.5 years of Labour that many who either feel that saying they vote Labour at General Elections is embarrassing and they are less likely to admit it than previously, Labour in the past 2 parliaments whatever the opinion polls said also dipped in Local and European Elections quite significantly, indeed the 2006 Local Elections and the 2004 Local Elections in terms of votes weren't that much different - certainly the Conservatives are up a bit, but exactly how much I'm sure won't begin to be known until the General Election results start coming out.

[John Ashworth]

By reversing the 7 year policy of National control of Fisheries Dave Cameron has proved he doesn't believe in the supremacy of Parliament, and has no intention of carrying out his policy of national control of social and employment regulation. Not a great start, when you begin with deception.

[ukfirst]

Who cares? Blair, Cameron the Dim-Libs. All believe in national surrender.

[Og]

Editor, I found this a strange post. It occurred to me that you might have been got at by CCHQ.

It would be churlish to say there have not been peaks for Cameron, but if you consider it a peak (or part of a peak) to be invited to the Beckham World Cup party, you trivialise the post almost beyond retrieval.

If you are to run a worthwhile List of Ten Things, it should be the ten things that Cameron needs to do to keep his centre-right core on-side.

The back-me-or-we-die stunt this week was a calculated V-sign to the Right; as Cameron is a black belt in Outreach Culture, he needs to find a way of overcoming his obvious distaste for traditional Tory mores and look to meet the centre-right halfway.

Bearing in mind that the true polling comparison to make is new-boy Blair 1995 versus new-boy Cameron 2006, with some years to go before a general election, he's well off the pace.

[Richard Carey]

The back-me-or-we-die stunt this week was a calculated V-sign to the Right; ... he needs to find a way of overcoming his obvious distaste for traditional Tory mores and look to meet the centre-right halfway.

I'm happy to build a Conservative coalition as we're changing to win, but some days I don't know whether I'm more hamstrung by the right wingers or the right whingers...

I think we do need to adjust the balance of the message according to the way it's received - even ensuring that in local campaigning we deliver a little of the Ed's "politics of and" in our own campaigning on the ground.

But every time I read a post like the above from "Og" and his mates, it evokes a pretty visceral reaction from me along the lines of "what are *you* gonna do about it, then?". I try to supress it most of the time.

We're supposed to be working together - we're one year in to a new leadership and a new epoch for Conservative politics. You can work to win, or have a strop, but you'll get no sympathy from me if you choose the latter.

[matt wright]

A lot of the comments that we should be even further ahead in the polls seem to me to assume that politics is the same as in the 70s and 80s. It seems to me that politics is quite different nowadays and I think it could be difficult to have very large leads. What do others think?

Matt

[Alexander Drake]

I think George Hinton's comments and lamentations are the most interesting on this thread:

...has Dave connected with the electorate, not the centrists and SIG's, but that big unhappy bunch of people who have been ripped off by NuLab and are desparate for a saviour and salvation...

In other words, in George's view the purpose of the Leader of the Conservative Party is not so much to do what is necessary to build a plausible alternative government in the House of Commons, but to provide a voice for people who are cranky with the status quo (rather than with the Labour Party). I think George assumes Cameron can do both, but that the priority is provide a voice rather than win.

The problem though with George's preferred strategy is that Britain now needs an alternate government ready to take the Treasury benches. The Westminster system seizes up if one party stays in power for too long.

Voicing a view on the issues that matter to people like George is fine, and ideally the Conservatives should be the party to do this, but from within the vantage point of Government and in way that builds our electoral coalition, rather than put it at risk.

[Alexander Drake]

Og, you said:

Cameron...needs to find a way of overcoming his obvious distaste for traditional Tory mores and look to meet the centre-right halfway.

Fair enough, but where in turn is the appetite for compromise from those that disagree with Cameron from within the Party? All we see and hear is criticism of Cameron, and very little of it constructive or helpful.

[Jorgen]

"what are *you* gonna do about it, then?".

When the time comes: Vote for a Conservative party (most likely UKIP, especially if they modify their fanatical stance on EU) or not vote at all.

Until then: make sure noone can after the election say: why didn't you tell us?

[Tory Loyalist]

If these idiots who continually post about how badly the party are doing and how we have a closet socialist as leader had there way
___________________________________________________

Well Jack Stone, we do have a closet socialist leader, period.

By the way, Jack I've noticed something rather odd.

Seems that you share your quasi-dyslexic confusion of the words "their" and "there" with at least two other Cameron-clone posters.

Could the three of you possibly be related?

[Og]

R Carey says: "I'm happy to build a Conservative coalition as we're changing to win" ..... and then goes on to say, in effect, that his idea of coalition is with the left, not the right.

This "changing to win", Carey: your own words, or a mantra?

There is change, and there is volte-face. The latter, which is not too strong a description of the current leadership's opinion on grammar schools, NHS choice, the size of the state, EPP membership, European fishing policy and immigration, to select six topics at random, requires a degree more tact and diplomacy with the party's Right than has been shown to date.

[malcolm]

Tim, you have forgotten the belated reinstatement of the whip to the excellent Roger Helmer!

[Jack Stone]

Tory Loyalist. To describe David Cameron as a closet socialist is complete rubbish.Mind you I have no doubt at all that you and those who share your views believe anyone to the left of Margaret Thatcher is an out and out socialist. I also thank god that your views are no longer shared by the party leadership as the party would still be unelectable not a government in waiting.

[Richard Carey]

This "changing to win", Carey: your own words, or a mantra?

A little of both, "Og". In fact, as I'm sure you remember, it was the strategy for recovery that we approved by 2:1 exactly one year ago, and which I wholeheartedly support.

As for whether I would prefer a "coalition with the left, not the right", you have to admit that you're not exactly good marketing for the so-called Right at the moment, given the tone of your posts above!

Alexander has a good point above, try and look at ways of meeting the leadership half-way. I said in my original post that we need to balance issues in our own local campaigning, and not leave communicating the message entirely to CCHQ and the leadership to do on their own.

[matt wright]

Richard is right above. The leadership is trying to change the party image to appeal to a broader section of the public and scoring successes. However to really embed that improvement and get the bigger poll leads people crave requires graft from the local level as well. Some are and are being rewarded with results but as is evident from some posts on this site, others perefr to sit whingeing,

Matt

[James Maskell]

Bringing up genuine and serious concerns is not whinging.

[John Irvine]

I think it's about time more of us genuine Tories came out of the closet and showed the press and public that the great silent majority of Tories have not changed, and do not support Cameron's fatuous change-to-lose socialist agenda.

It's the truth, and a lot of people out there want to hear it. In fact many Tory patriots are already shouting it proudly here on CH.

I've been heartened by increasing signs of Cameron fatigue among journalists. The Telegraphy no longer seems to wheel out the previous Alice Thomson lickspittle rubbish.

A few days ago someone alleged that his Cameroon friends had been "driven off" CH by the host of genuine Tories posting here.

Doesn't say much for their staying power, does it?

[Larry Green]

I fully agree John. Since I've have become an occasional poster here I've noticed that the same four or five names keep coming up with a strangely orchestrated "line" in favour of Cameron and the centre.

Some claim that a number of these people are CCO apparatchiks. Having had a serious run-in with CCO about ten years ago over a local candidate matter I know how they behave and I do not doubt it for a moment.

I also note a common antagonism to Israel, also apparently orchestrated. I was about to use a stronger word, but I have decided to restrain for the moment.

"Jack Stone" is clearly a totally artificial construct probably the work of some Labour troublemaker.