The growing gender gap

For the fourth month in a row Populus has the Conservatives on 36%, this month with a small swing from Labour (33%) to the LibDems (20%).

Peter Riddell thinks the consistent lead of around 4% is an achievement for Cameron - but a long way off where he needs to be:

"Some Tories have been moaning that the party should be much farther ahead, given Labour’s troubles. But the current poll ratings are hardly surprising because, despite fears of an increase in interest rates on Thursday, real incomes remain high, inflation low and employment strong, thanks not least to the inflow of workers from Central Europe and cheap goods from Asia."

Focusing just on the opinion of women adds another 3% to the Conservative lead, whilst with men there is a 3% drop. Men and women are further polarised when they are presented with the hypothetical situation of Brown vs Cameron: Cameron's lead amongst women doubles to 12% and his draw with Labour amongst men becomes a Labour lead of 3%.

A crude assessment using their current angle on crime as an example would be that Labour are still pushing the men's vote by focusing on a hard-headed approach, whilst the Conservatives continue to court the women's vote by, quite rightly, being "understanding" about the causes of crime.

The Times' leading article today questions whether Cameron should now begin to move to "more macho terrain", but is uncertain whether he has enough credibility with men to do so at this stage. One thing that is clear is that party strategists will increasingly be factoring in the differences in opinion between genders in their approach to issues.

The Poll of Polls will be updated later this morning.

Deputy Editor

Comments

[Richard Weatherill]

Why don't we just go for an all-female Candidates List and have done with it? If we garnered the vote of every woman in the country we'd be home and dry.

Seriously, this apparent difference between how men and women view Cameron is quite fascinating. It would be interesting to know if there's any significant gender-based difference in the CH panel's rating of DC or other members of his Shadow team.

[bee]

be careful of some of the hypothetical brown vs cameron questions, but it's generally unsurprising to see the Tories more popular with women, as they have historically been that way - in 1992 there was a big lead for the Tories among women but not among men.

[Sean Fear]

"The Times' leading article today questions whether Cameron should now begin to move to "more macho terrain", but is uncertain whether he has enough credibility with men to do so at this stage."

I doubt if that would carry any credibility now. Cameron has made his decision to focus exclusively on the more left wing elements of the middle classes and must pursue this strategy to the end.

[James Maskell]

I heard this poll last night on 18DS (tuned in for the first time last night at about 10pm, good stuff). Interesting to see the split between the sexes, but not completely suprizing.

[Tory Loyalist]

As you say Sean, if Cameron breaks away from his ardent pursuit of the "right-on" yuppie element he will look even more totally phoney than he does already.

I'm not sure that any such consideration would stop him though. He seems immune to such subtleties.

[Andy Stidwill]

These figures are interesting, because the last election was the first time in British electoral history when Labour was more popular amongst women than men.

Maybe it'll be the only election where this was true.

[Michael McGowan]

It is a complete mystery to whyy women should be swooning over Dave, and doesn't bear out my experience anyway. It is especially bizarre because he doesn't have any credible solutions to the problems which the pollsters tell us preoccupy female voters more than men.

[Deborah]

And which problems might they be, Michael?

[Annabel Herriott]

Women do not "swoon" over David. I for one, am old enough to be his mother. We think he is heading in the right direction, due to our more advanced intuition.

[Michael McGowan]

Healthcare, education, work-life balance, environmental issues, so the pollsters tell me, Deborah. On all of which issues, Cameron mainly proposes to perpetuate and entrench the failures of the Labour Party.

"Due to our more advanced intuition": so humility is clearly not one of your vices, Annabel? I can just imagine the shrill accusations of sexism if I made a similar comment about men....even in jest.

[Deborah]

"Cameron mainly proposes to perpetuate and entrench the failures of the Labour Party"
Perhaps the difference is down to our better listening skills>?

[Michael McGowan]

Can't you do a bit better than trotting out that hackneyed old gender sterotype, Deborah?

[Deborah]

It is a complete mystery to whyy women should be...
You just don't understand me

[NigelC]

Michael,
"Cameron mainly proposes to perpetuate and entrench the failures of the Labour Party"
I think you may have misunderstood David Cameron too

[Michael McGowan]

How so? The current jibing at Godon Brown by Cameron and Osborne comes across as a personality clash: there is minimal difference of approach on the underlying issues.

[NigelC]

Michael,
If women are persuaded by David Cameron's approach is this a bad thing?
If he is shedding the notion of the "nasty party" and making it acceptable for people, especially women, to vote Conservative is this a bad thing?
I believe David Cameron is broadening our appeal while holding true to the core compassionate conservatism principles which have broad appeal especially with women.
I hope you have read his speeches in depth. They are often misreported in the BBC

[Deborah]

"there is minimal difference of approach on the underlying issues."
How do you know? The policy groups are still out. You could say:
significant differences of approach on the underlying issues have not yet been verified
..but that's a different matter.

[Ted]

When I read some of the stuff above that apparently defines a True Conservative I feel a bit like Barry Goldwater in conversation with Bob Dole "We're the new liberals ... Can you imagine that?"

[Michael McGowan]

Nigel, there is no virtue in voting Conservative so I am indifferent to whether he is persuading people to vote Conservative. I am not a member of the Conservative Party and have only voted for it in three out of six general elections since I turned 18. It is what the Conservatives would do, rather than what they say which is my main preoccupation. Slogans about compassionate conservatism simply divert attention from the fact that David Cameron lacks the courgae and the imagination to address the endemic problems this country faces and which cause unnecessary suffering to ordinary people every day of the week.

I do not read any politicians' speeches for the simple reason that I do not believe a word that politicians say. Orwell put it well when he said that their utterances are designed to give the appearance of solidity to pure wind. Cameron is no exception.

Deborah, I can of course only comment on facts as they are today. Of course the evidence to date suggests that the policy groups are merely an excuse for kicking issues into the long grass: see the reaction of Cameron and Osborne to Lord Forsyth.

As for compassionate politics being of especial concern for women, speak for yourself, Nigel, but please count me out.

[Sally Roberts]

Michael McGowan @ 12:20 - if you choose - somewhat provocatively in my view - to describe women as "swooning" over Cameron then you must expect the kind of response you received from Annabel and which has clearly annoyed you!!

[Michael McGowan]

I am sorry that you are so hyper-sensitive, Sally, that you found my comments "provocative". I am not annoyed in the least: just quite happy to argue with the likes of you.

[NigelC]

Michael,
I am perplexed that you are interested in what the Conservatives would do but won't read speeches; how are you to determine what they will do?
I fundamentally disagree that compassionate conservatism will not address the "the endemic problems this country faces and which cause unnecessary suffering to ordinary people every day of the week."
I expect we will have to agree to differ.

[DavidDPB]

<>

What, to essentially quote Paragraph 1.3.1 of the report?

[Sally Roberts]

Michael @ 15:06 Oh Sir! You have given me a fit of the vapours (little woman that I am!) I must away and grab my smelling salts!!

[DavidDPB]

" see the reaction of Cameron and Osborne to Lord Forsyth. "

should be in the brackets.

An edit function would come in handy......

(slinks off, redfaced)

[Deborah]

the evidence to date -Michael McGowan

And what evidence might that be?
I do hope you're not a policeman or a lawyer, because you seem (both here and elsewhere) quite unable to differentiate between fact and your own personal opinion.

[Michael McGowan]

Sally, what a weird post!

Deborah, apologies for daring to disagree with you. I base my personal opinions on what I observe. Perhaps you would feel more comfortable blogging on www.conservatives.com. No danger of dissenting voices there.

[Conor Everard]

Women are allowed to vote?!

[Sally Roberts]

Apologies, Michael! I thought you had enough intelligence to spot a mickey-take when you saw one!

[Sally Roberts]

And Michael, I'd be interested to read your response to Deborah's perfectly reasonable question. Surely you are not lost for words?

[sjm]

Mr McGowan - you are obviously extremely sceptical about politicians (I can understand that), you don't read their speeches so presumably rely on media interpretation (OK, I can understand that), you frequently haven't voted Conservative (I can understand that), you disagree with some of the comments here (I can understand that), but - you keep coming back to post comments on a Conservative blog - I really CAN'T understand that!

[Sally Roberts]

Yup Conor! and one even became one of the best Prime Ministers this Country has ever had!

[Michael McGowan]

Sjm, I don't think Tim regards this as a narrowly Conservative blog for slavish adherents to the Party line. It is a talking shop for those of a Conservative persuasion. As I have voted for the Conservative Party more than for any other Party, why shouldn't that include me? I thought that the Conservative Party was in the business of winning floating votes, not driving away potential support.

Sally, thank you for treating me to your "sense of humour". I thought I replied to Deborah at 16.31.

[Sally Roberts]

The pleasure is all mine, Michael! I may be wrong, but I don't believe you answered Deborah's request for the "evidence" you referred to in an earlier post.

[David Lonsdale]

It is obvious to all and sundry that these poll figures will not result in a Conservative government. Even after the Electoral Commission have made adjustments, the best that can be deduced from these numbers is a hung Parliament.
The modernisers have been seduced into believing that gaining the centre ground will deliver power. What they do not seem to have accounted for is that not all floating voters are to be found in the centre. Lifelong Conservatives, such as myself, voted for UKIP at the last two elections and we did so because we believe that the EU is the most important issue facing the country. How can we elect MPs to Westminster, with any conviction, when around 70% of our laws are made in Brussells by people whom we have not elected. Of the five cost/benefit analyses I have seen since 2001, not one suggests we would be better off within the EU. Two say we would be considerably better off out.
The solution is obvious. Cameron does not seem to think that the EU is a big issue with voters. If that is the case, he could advocate withdrawal from the CFP,CAP and Social chapter without losing a single vote. He could also call for a cost/benefit analysis of our EU membership. Such a call would be seen as reasonable by the electorate and at the same time would cause Labour serious difficulties. If they opposed such an analysis, they would be perceived as unreasonable.
Such a stand by the Conservatives would see large numbers of floating eurosceptics return to the fold. Furthermore, if the electorate were aware of the costs of EU membership there would be a clamour for withdrawal which Cameron could ride into government. The combined efforts of the BBC, Clarke, Heseltine, Curry and Gummer would be overwhelmed by public opinion.
UKIP cost the Conservatives 18 seats at the last election and the indications are that increasing numbers of the electorate are looking for alternatives to the big three. Without us floating eurosceptics, Cameron cannot win.

[Tory Loyalist]

If women are persuaded by David Cameron's approach is this a bad thing? If he is shedding the notion of the "nasty party"
____________________________________________

Well since the notion of the "nasty party" was invented by the Tories in the first place I daresay that's not so difficult.

Still, at least that's one atrocity for which we can't blame Cameron.

I don't meet many women who are impressed by Cameron - quite the contrary in fact. Let's face it - he's no oil painting.

And apart from women who feel strongly on the usual populist issues such as immigration, the EU etc, I find most aren't really that interested in politics.

It's something they share with much of the new generation of jellyfish-like low-achieving males.

Behind the feminist window-dressing very little has changed. I even still meet female voters who say "I'll have to ask my husband".

[Andy Stidwill]

Middle-class women over 50 are always likely to favour a nice son-in-law kind of leader like Cameron, and they make up a very large segment of those who actually bother to vote.

[NigelC]

Tory Loyalist,
Why do you think most women are not interested in politics?
Can I suggest, with the risk of being accused of sterotyping, that they find the whole old boys club, paternalistic, confrontational and typically public schoolboy behaviour in the house alien to the consensual problem solving appoach they usually adopt.

I have found this thread fascinating today for the misunderstanding between the sexes, the complete missing of jokes, and some very old fashioned views on women.

I would suggest some people on this thread get out more and meet some of those women who are interested in politics and could win the next election for the Conservatives

[Tory Loyalist]

Can I suggest, with the risk of being accused of sterotyping, that they find the whole old boys club, paternalistic, confrontational and typically public schoolboy behaviour in the house alien to the consensual problem solving appoach they usually adopt

____________________________________________

Well that would certainly appear to be stereotyping because I don't know many women who are in the habit of adopting a "consensual problem solving approach"

That sounds more like gender-neutral managementspeak bullsh*t to me.

Mind you, any such women may find much to dislike in Cameron's recent Punch and Judy displays in the House, not to mention the proliferation of the Eton mafia.

Seems to me we're now getting the very worst of your paternalistic confrontational and typically public schoolboy behaviour.

[sjm]

Oh please - 'middle-class women over 50 favouring son-in-law types' - didn't we have enough of that kind of rubbish from Steve Norris a few years ago, with his sneers about the blue-rinse brigade?

And the easiest way for a woman to get rid of doorsteppers, literal or metaphorical, is to use the 'I'll have to ask my husband'phrase. I suggest you take it as a polite way of saying 'I'm not interested, shove off.'

Could we stop all the gender stereotyping here, it isn't funny and it's getting silly.

[Tory Loyalist]

And the easiest way for a woman to get rid of doorsteppers, literal or metaphorical, is to use the 'I'll have to ask my husband'phrase.

____________________________________________

That's funny. In years of canvassing no man has ever told me "I'll have to ask my wife".

Gender stereotyping?

[Daniel Cowdrill]

Over at Birmingham Uni CF blog, we have run a piece on this.

It seems that the Conservative lead in the polls is dependant on the female vote. It cdould be the women that win it for us. Males, on the other hand seem equally divided in support between a Gordon Brown led Labour party and a Cameron led Conservative Party. Fortunately for us, this is easily reversed by our support amongst women.

www.bucf.wordpress.com