PoliticalBetting.com is unimpressed with the reliability of this morning's Communicate Research poll for The Independent. PB's Editor Mike Smithson says that The Independent's new monthly pollster has not 'past vote weighted' their poll (a view echoed by YouGov's UKPollingReport) and has emailed Andrew Hawkins of CR to understand why not. I'll be seeing Andrew at CR's early Christmas party tonight and I'll see if I can learn more then.
There are ingredients to the poll that ring true, however. The Tories enjoy an 11% lead amongst the top AB social group but Labour is making headway amongst skilled manual workers (C2s) and men, in particular. Labour now enjoys a 16% lead amongst C2s and The Independent's Political Editor, Andrew Grice, wonders if the large improvement over the month reflects "the Government's decision to put terrorism and crime at the heart of its agenda and to portray the Tories as "soft" on security issues".
Editor's comment: "This poll is a warning to Conservatives. The party cannot afford to be perceived as weaker on security and crime than Labour, or it will not win the support of a broad enough coalition of voters to become Britain's next Government. A poll at the weekend suggested that security was the only area where Gordon Brown enjoyed a lead over David Cameron. It is sadly inevitable that the international security situation will deteriorate over the coming years as civilisation's enemies gain access to more dangerous and portable tools of terror. Conservatives should not adopt John Reid's cavalier attitude to historic liberties but we must hope that commentator Bruce Anderson's recent suggestion that Phase II of Project Cameron - with "harder-edged" policies on education and crime - really is about to begin. The party leadership should not abandon its environmentalism or the welcome commitment to social justice but core supporters including eurosceptics, the wealth creators of the CBI and families living in unsafe neighbourhoods deserve the attention of the Tory leader, too."
The Communicate Research poll has been added to the ConservativeHome poll of polls and has replaced the most recent BPIX poll - which is now more than two months' old.
It seems London is going to be a dynamic cente for Muslim terrorism and Russian gangsterism - not to mention the Tamil, Somali, Albanian, Chinese,Italian, and Colombian gangs making London such a stage for murder and mayhem.
Perhaps some attention to policing and how the Met for example is to be staffed, equipped and focused should be conducted quite separately from all other police forces. Too often London problems are used as an excuse to turn national institutions upside down as happened with Education and Local Govt because the ILEA and GLC were basket cases the whole of England was subjected to solutions to London-specific problems.
Maybe if politicians addressed London as a separate issue from England we could have policies more attuned to local communities
Posted by: TomTom | November 28, 2006 at 08:40
Anybody having read the comment threads on many of your recent posts will be unsurprised by this loss of the opinion poll lead.
An analysis of the Cameroon's multiple failings on the blog EU Referendum, by Dr R.A.E. North, should be required reading for all who hope to find a means of removing New Labour from power.
Posted by: Martin Cole | November 28, 2006 at 08:40
On what basis have you added this to the poll of polls, Ed?
You exclude Mori because it does not weight; on the same basis you should exclude CR. It is precisely the same as Mori. In fact if I read political betting correctly, it is weighted less than Mori is, even.
There is no need to add it unless a political point is being made. Smithson is estimating that with normal, standard industry weighting this poll too would have the Tories in the lead.
If we see a Labour lead in either ICM or YouGov, or for that matter even the Labour-friendly Populus, then we should be concerned. Until then it is a matter not of 'how can we overtake Lab' but 'how do we improve our lead'.
Posted by: poll watcher | November 28, 2006 at 09:05
Rather than juggle the polls, Poll Watcher, to achieve an acceptable and illusionary result, it would be more productive to consider the Editor's closing sentence and accept that:
""...core supporters including eurosceptics, the wealth creators of the CBI and families living in unsafe neighbourhoods deserve the attention of the Tory leader, too."
Then, as Martin Cole wrote above, a little time spent reading Dr North's EU Referendum Blog would focus thinking on how to put the Conservative party on a winning track.
Posted by: John Coles | November 28, 2006 at 09:38
I would agree with the thrust of this article but think the difference has been that Labour has been selling their 'security policy' far better than we have.
Their 'security policy' appears to hinge on the fact that they are demanding 90 days detention before charges are brought and er..that's it. Personally I think the Conservative party is right to oppose this unless and until the police can cite examples of where the current 28 days has hampered their work.
On the other hand there has been no mention of making 'intercept evidence' admissable in court or do anything whatsoever to improve security at our increasingly porous borders.Both Conservative priorities and in my humble opinion both more valuable in halting terrorists.
David Davis consistently appears at the top of the CH poll but he does seem to have been very quiet over the past three months. Why?
Posted by: malcolm | November 28, 2006 at 09:50
I can't see labour being ahead...
However, if ICM and Yougov come up with something similar then we should worry...
Posted by: Jaz | November 28, 2006 at 10:12
Whatever failings there may be in CR's methodology, the point is that last month they placed us 6% ahead of Labour, rather than 2% behind.
Overall, I think we enjoy a slight lead over Labour (2-3% on average) but we can't be complacent.
Posted by: Sean Fear | November 28, 2006 at 10:20
"On the other hand there has been no mention of making 'intercept evidence' admissable in court or do anything whatsoever to improve security at our increasingly porous borders."
Malcolm, you make an excellent point. I am vehemently opposed to 90 day detention and ID cards but would be strongly in favour of intercept evidence being admissable in court. I also think that spending money on a seperate department for homeland security with a specially trained border control force ASAP, would be much more effective than ID cards.
Posted by: Scotty | November 28, 2006 at 10:25
Frankly this convirms what I have thought for a long time David Davis is useless and should be replaced as Shadow Home Secretary.
Posted by: Jack Stone | November 28, 2006 at 10:41
If I had to bet I think the headline saying Conservatives reject Churchill and see Polly Toynbee as a role model has caused this poll fall. I think those who naturally are on the left didn't believe it and those who are naturally on the right were horrified. I think it was poor strategy and without policy people are worrying about the implications of a shift to defining poverty in relative terms.
Posted by: voreas06 | November 28, 2006 at 10:52
"Overall, I think we enjoy a slight lead over Labour (2-3% on average) but we can't be complacent"
Sean,
Even if you are right about the 2-3% lead, that will give Labour an easy forth term! We still have a LOT of work to do to get our message across. We need to appeal to the millions of people who voted for Margaret Thatcher and have moved away over the last fifteen years or so. If we are losing support with the C2s we need to address the problem now!
Posted by: David Brackenbury | November 28, 2006 at 11:19
voreas06, whilst I'm sypathetic to the overall thrust of your comment, I don't think we should overestimate the influence of Polly Toynbee on C2 respondents!
Posted by: Richard Weatherill | November 28, 2006 at 11:32
"Frankly this convirms what I have thought for a long time David Davis is useless and should be replaced as Shadow Home Secretary."
Ok, Jack. So how do you explain the fact that David Davis is consistently the most popular member of the Shadow Cabinet in the CH monthly survey? Maybe we just lack your unique insight.
Posted by: Richard Weatherill | November 28, 2006 at 11:38
I agree with Brackenbury. White van man, aka C2, is a natural small "c" conservative.
The effete, metropolitan, environmentally obsessed, soft-left approach of CCHQ will piss off white van man completely. By all means care about greenery and poverty, but mix it with some good honest hard truths as well.
The idea that ANYTHING that we stood for in 97, 01, 05 is discredited because we lost those elections is patently absurd.
Cameron, Maude and Letwin need backbone, and fast.
Posted by: Og | November 28, 2006 at 11:43
"The idea that ANYTHING that we stood for in 97, 01, 05 is discredited because we lost those elections is patently absurd."
Og, I don't think the electorate even bothered to look at the manifesto. Simply being conservative was enough to discredit us with many voter's. An unpopular government and attractive policies have to be combined with a willingness to even consider the conservative party as an alternative government. May not be a palatable truth for some on this site but a harsh reality.
Posted by: Scotty | November 28, 2006 at 12:24
All one off polls are meaningless, one off polls with dodgy methods are even more meaningless.
Including this in the poll of polls is daft for the reasons outlined by Smithson.
Posted by: wicks | November 28, 2006 at 13:20
Or maybe the skilled workers are beginning to understand who in the end is going to pay to save the great mass of unskilled from the terrible fate of relative poverty.
Posted by: Jorgen | November 28, 2006 at 13:39
Our polls are plateauing (sp?) at around 38% which by my estimation would be a hung parliament. The Lib Dems wont work with any of the main parties and so Labour will go it alone as minority government. I think we are headed into some very murky and undiscovered waters here...
I think we should start dusting off our "working in informal coalitions" books...
Posted by: James Maskell | November 28, 2006 at 13:51
... hung parliament
Maybe the farsighted Cameron has seen this long ago and plans to merge with the LibDems?
Posted by: Jorgen | November 28, 2006 at 13:59
"I don't think the electorate even bothered to look at the manifesto. Simply being conservative was enough to discredit us with many voters."
Your proposition is not borne out by the fact that the Conservatives won a small majority of votes cast in England.
I accept that some do not look at the manifesto, but they are hardly our target audience.
There is a pendulum swing in politics, and where the Conservatives were once discredited by being Conservatives, so New Labour now faces discredit for 10 years of its own incompetence in many areas.
I think what you propose is a change of bathwater AND baby, when fresh bathwater would do the trick.
Posted by: Og | November 28, 2006 at 14:12
Well, isn't it a fact that people are even more tired of Labour than they were of the Tories? This should in itself have put us many times more than a measly 6 points ahead - a lead that can be lost in no time during an election campaign. In other words, Cameron's policies have never been working.
Posted by: Jorgen | November 28, 2006 at 14:33
People are certainly tired of Labour, but I don't think they are (yet) swapping over to the Conservatives in any great numbers. I strongly suspect that the fringe parties - or the apathy party - would be the main beneficiaries of any disaffection with Labour if a GE were to be held this Thursday.
Incidentally, I assume the various headline poll figures only cover those who consider themselves "likely to vote"?
I spent a lot of time in the House of Commons during the Lib/Lab pact of the late 1970s. Half the Shadow fron bench were hardly born then, so perhaps I'll apply for a Special Adviser post!
Posted by: Richard Weatherill | November 28, 2006 at 15:08
Richard Weatherwill @ 15.08: 'assume the various headline poll figures only cover those who consider themselves "likely to vote"'
YouGov includes everybody who gives a voting intention.
MORI includes those 10/10 certain to vote.
Both ICM and Populus include everybody, but weight down those who are less than certain to vote so they count less (i.e. someone who rates their chance of voting at 8/10 counts as 0.8 of a person who says they are 10/10 likely to vote.
Communicate include those rate their chance of voting at 5/10 or above.
Posted by: Anthony Wells | November 28, 2006 at 15:55
"I don't think the electorate even bothered to look at the manifesto. Simply being conservative was enough to discredit us with many voters."
Actually the election campaigns in 2001 and 2005 were pitiful. They seemed to be addressed to the media and not the electorate.
The pollution of those Maiden and Clearstream billboards with moronic slogans and trashy images put many off voting - it was so infantile.
Address issues in a grown-up fashion and not the infantile level politicians seem to use - the public just think elections are run by shysters because they don't engage with the issues
Posted by: ToMTom | November 28, 2006 at 17:39
Too much pain during the ERM period, shown to be futile on Black Wednesday, Tories unapologetic and unforgiven, therefore three general election defeats.
Posted by: Denis Cooper | November 28, 2006 at 19:03
I agree with Scotty. We had to change. As for the poll, well it could be right of course but I'm not sure. Last week we had a by-election in Prestatyn and won with 37% of the vote and Labour on 25% (only one test of course but it was interesting). The ward wasn't natural Conservative territory. We did work it hard though but as I say not sure the opinion poll is right frankly. Lets see what happens in other polls and then take a view,
Matt
Posted by: matt wright | November 29, 2006 at 01:40