Volatile MORI finds falling approval levels for Cameron

An Ipsos MORI survey for the Financial Times will not make encouraging reading for the Tory leader.  The survey gives Labour a 2% lead and also suggests that David Cameron's overall rating has become slightly negative.  14% more voters approved of the Conservative leader in January than disapproved but ten months into Mr Cameron's leadership the disapprovers very slightly outnumber the approvers.

MORI has been very volatile in recent times.  PoliticalBetting.com notes the extent of that volatility this morning:

"Mori has a reputation for volatility. In the same poll a year ago it reported Labour 6% ahead, followed by a 10% margin in November which was suddenly turned round to a 9% Tory lead three weeks later."

Because no other mainstream pollster is finding such volatility ConservativeHome has dropped MORI from its poll of polls.  Ipsos - since it purchased MORI - has begun to overhaul polling operations in a bid to tackle this volatility problem.  ConservativeHome.com will restore MORI to its poll of polls when that overhaul is complete.

The FT article does not provide a figure for the LibDems.

PS A Times/ Populus poll appearing to suggest that swing voters are 51% to 24% inclined to Brown does not contain Tory/ LibDem waverers and is analysed expertly by Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report.

Comments

[Roslyn Freeman]

Real Conservatives will not be surprised as we are being led by a bunch of Teddy Bears.
Where are the real men in the Conservative Party- crushed by the massive rise in power over the last 10 years by a group of people which we are not allowed to talk about or we are classed as Homophobic,or the powerful W2W group of the bitter and twisted.
Real Men and Women have turned their cheek to the Cameroonies and walked.
Look at the Cowardly way Iraq is being talked about at the moment to achieve a withdrawal - I am ashamed of our Teddy Bear Leadership.

[Roslyn Freeman]

And whilst Conservatism burns with the electorate the main issue of the day is "HUG A GRANNY".
Surely this tells us all we are sinking and fast.

[Stuart Raven]

Oh it's only MORI blah! blah! blah!

Bob Worcester hasnt a clue blah! blah! blah!

Not saying what we want to hear therefore it can't possibly be true blah! blah! blah!

Our resident Cameroonies can take today off. I've made their arguments for them already.

[George Reynolds]

Have to say that I agree with the sentiments expressed by Rosslyn Freeman. Two issues have combined I think to undermine confidence in Cameron as a potential PrimeMinister in the minds of some voters: 1) Shifting position on Iraq which though superficially popular is shows eregious lack of responsibility for the future of Iraq and the future of the Middle East and 2) A pathetic intervention into the Muslim veil/multi-culturalism debate. This is a vital debate about the future of the country and the Tory leader flunked ut of it. What voters look for is leaderhip qualities and at the moment they are concerned that Cameron is a bit superficial and soft in the middle.

[James]

Stuart and Roslyn, of course you're right. If only we swung to the right, started ranting about the evils of immigrants and civil servants (with david davis as leader of course) the voters would come flocking back to us in droves.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"If only we swung to the right, started ranting about the evils of immigrants and civil servants (with david davis as leader of course) the voters would come flocking back to us in droves."

No, nobody less than John Redwood (and that's only if Simon Heffer can't be persuaded to accept a safe seat) will do ;-)

[William Norton]

Roslyn Freeman: And whilst Conservatism burns with the electorate the main issue of the day is "HUG A GRANNY".

How does one inaugurate "Trash a Troll"?

[Stuart Raven]

Sorry James, I don't get the joke.

Poll after poll shows that the electorate want to curtail immigration, which is why Labour is busy trying to climb on that particular bandwagon

The only votes that would be lost by a cull of the rabbit-like civil servant population would be those of the civil servants themselves.

Seems we have now reached the stage where the Cameroonies have become laughable caricatures of themselves

[Tam Large]

Not surprising really. Socialists won't vote Cameroon as they still think he will cut taxes/services; tory voters won't bother to vote because the Cameroons say they won't make the needed tax cuts / immigration cuts etc. Result of all the flannel? Neither side will vote for us. Well done Blue Labour....

[Ben Page]

Folks - Just to clarify, unless I'm missing something, Ipsos is not currently overhauling MORI's polling methodology. I ought to know that, as I have overall responsibility for all our government and political polling. If someout there knows better perhaps they could let me know??

We try hard to interview representative samples of the public, whose views ARE volatile on issues and personalities where they do not have well formed views. David Cameron falls into this camp at the moment. You will note from the FT story that one of the things to watch at the moment is how the opinions of those who "don't know" change as they start to form firm views about him. This is why the long term trends using comparable questions and methodologies are helpful - particularly seeing how Cameron performs on a like for like basis with his 4 predecessors in Opposition.

If you want more on "volatility" look at this
www.ipsos-mori.com/publications/rmm/volatility-and-public-opinion.shtml

We also feel confident in our track record at General Elections (both raw and final figures!) - we were spot on last time. We look forward to the next one, which may or may not give readers of Conservative Home what they want!

Yours

Ben Page
Chairman
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute

[TomTom]

"If only we swung to the right, started ranting about the evils of immigrants

Why so extreme ? Moderation can work wonder !

Only last night on The Westminster Hour Shahid Malik MP for Dewsbury revealed some interesting points - that Dewsbury has the highest BNP vote in England.

That he held a coffee morning on the White estates and found that the primary issues for voters there were a) Immigration b) Crime c) Local Economy

He held a coffee morning in Savile Town, the Muslim quarter and found their priority issues were:
a) Immigration b) Crime c) Local Economy

Now we have to ask why has Labour been so disastrous at uniting people on these issues which seem to be a shared priority ? Can it be that Labour has betrayed its voters and made way for them to vote BNP ?

[Richard]

"Stuart and Roslyn, of course you're right. If only we swung to the right, started ranting about the evils of immigrants and civil servants (with david davis as leader of course) the voters would come flocking back to us in droves."

Well, it seems to be working for Labour regarding multiculturalism!

[A S 'Yogi' Yogeswaran]

The MORI Poll has come out at the right time. The wooly ideas put forward by the current front bench has caused middle England to sit up and ask 'Whats the Point of the Conservative party?'

We are over-taxed and over-regulated. The long arm of New Labour sponsored Whitehall bureaucracy is everywhere. Ken Livingstone is running rings around the middle class Londoners. And yet, our Party front bench is still enamoured with the failed experiments of Blairism. The man in Clapham Omnibus is fed-up with the touchy feely, spin obsessed New Labour - but we have not offered him anything radical to sort out the mess.

My plea to Messrs Cameron and Osborne is for them to stop mimicing new Labour and embrace good old fashioned Conservatism- because fashions change.

[EML]

Why no figures for the Lib Dems; because they are embarrassingly low?

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

There's no need to worry - chill! Polls should be ignored (even when we're in the lead). My non-political friends - floating voters - are happy with David Cameron's Leadership. In fact one, Andrew, said he would consider voting for us for the first time since 1992.

[TimberWolf]

Could the loss in support be because more and more people are coming to realise that the Emporor isn't wearing any clothes?

[MH]

This poll could be correct. What is clear is that for a variety of reasons, the Conservatives are in a far less advantageous position than New Labour in 94 to 97. There are many more traditional Conservatives who are either looking to stay at home or move to UKIP. I watched Farage yesterday on TV and he was excellent. A reasoned, intelligent commentary on immigration. He is such a contrast to that twerp Cameron, whose opinions on the Muslim veil issue probably cost him another 100,000 votes for the Party.

After being a Conservative member for 20 years, I have today decided to sign up for UKIP and the cheque went in the post this morning.

[John Hustings]

Regardless of Mori's volatility, the general trend of the polling is definitely against the Conservative Party. Is this because David Cameron's meek PC claptrap is the exact opposite of what voters want to hear?

I think so.

[Mark Senior]

Mori figures not good for Conservatives so let's exclude them from our poll of polls . BPIX We have no idea what their methodology is but their figures are really good for the Conservatives so we will keep them in . Self delusion rules here .

[hf]

I support Tim's approach to this survey. One thing that the political betting site are saying is that Mori amended their final GE poll with weighting. Mori have not yet denied it.

And what better judge of the reliability of pollsters than a betting site?

[TimberWolf]

EML - Write off the Liberal Democrats at your peril!

[Given Up]

That the Torys are not powering ahead as this awfull government fails at every turn, is a disaster.

If the touchy feely, hug a Hoody, I'm so Green policies are the right ones, why aren't they working.....That the Torys should embrace them just as the public mood is changeing, is a massive error. But when were any of the Modernisers right about anything in the past.

Labour with Blairs usual monstrous cynicism, are now outflanking the Torys to the right and this poll is reflecting it.

[Afleitch]

So Labour are up 1 and the Tories steady since the last MORI poll, conducted in September, which gave Labour a 1 point lead, when the dozen or so polls after it saw a Conservative lead, which made MORI that months 'rogue' or outlying poll...

So what exactly does this poll tell us? Nothing. So everyone can calm down!

[hf]

RE: MH joining UKIP. Well MH you are going against the trend.

Whilst Conservative membership is showing signs of a small increase (up in my area 5%), UKIP has slumped from 28,000 to 16,000 (their figures) in 2 years.

So MH you leave a party with 260,000 and join one with 16,000 and falling...... Also one riven with splits so bad that a quarter of its elected NEC members have resigned from UKIP in recent weeks.

But then their goal in life seems to be to help get more Lib Dems elected.....

[Richard]

I can't say i'm that surprised to be honest. The Tories, supposedly the upholders of our heritage and culture, seem strangely silent on the row over multiculturalism. I know David Davis said something but it came too late. Labour have taken the initiative and the public seem to approve.

[rah rah man]

hf - even more horrifying a prospect for MH is that he is now in Chad's party!

Poor sod

[John Hustings]

They're not entirely silent Richard, but where they have spoken, it's to take the wrong line where the public are concerned (Davis excepted).

[Chad]

"Whilst Conservative membership is showing signs of a small increase "

*cough* Back in 2005, just before Cameron was elected, it was being widely reported that the Tory Party had 300,000 members, but after the B2L vote here, it was calculated based on the %participation etc that the tory Party now has 247,000 members.

That suggests that the Tory Party has lost 53,000 members since Cameron became leader just 10 months ago.

PS. Well done MH. Nigel's honest common sense is certainly a breath of fresh air isn't it?

[Charred Knobble]

"hf - even more horrifying a prospect for MH is that he is now in Chad's party!

Poor sod"

It's not Chad's party - as you can see from this link, UKIP are so embarrassed by his antics that websites are having to publish disclaimers making it clear that his views are not condoned by UKIP.

Ho ho ho!

[John Hustings]

I don't think there's anything unusual about that disclaimer Daniel.

[Chad]

:-)

That was me who added the clarification you idiot as someone lifted the article from my site.

Still you get back to those nice views on race that you have....

[Northerntory]

"Still you get back to those nice views on race that you have.."
Chad, please keep your nasty insults for your own blog.

[Chad]

People in glass houses NT, but yes,I completely agree, let's try to keep the thread on topic.

Has the Tory membership really fallen 53,000 in 10 months? Does the poll reflect this?

[Sean Fear]

AFAIK, Conservative membership has fallen by 6,000 over the past 12 months.

[Chad]

Almost every source I can find online Sean quotes the party membership at 300,000 for Dec 2005.

They must have all got that figure from somewhere.

[Chad]

..in fact it was even quoted here by Dan Hannan MEP.

We know from B2L that the membership is now 247,000, so simple arithmetic gives a loss of 53,000 members.

[Editor]

Back to thread please or risk being banned. HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO KEEP SAYING THIS?

[ToMTom]

Has the Tory membership really fallen 53,000 in 10 months?

Well if 620.000 people died over the year I suppose 8% of them could be Conservatives

[hf]

Chad Noble is mislead. This recent survey from a liberal leaning organisation (also quoted by FT) actually reports that Conservative membership is showing a slight increase.
http://www.new-politics.com/2006/10/19/new-report-shows-extent-of-local-squalor-in-british-politics/

Also according to their former Chairman Petrina, UKIP's real membership is under 10,000. Many of their members signed up for 5 years and are yet to be asked to renew. Also at their recent conference, attendance is reported to have slumped to between 300 to 600 compared to the 7,500 we had at Bournemouth.
Their full time employees have also fallen to 2. But in UKIP it only takes 2 people to fall out and start another faction!

[hf]

Dear Editor
Maybe we should have a thread to debate UKIP?
Afterall in many threads on here we have some posters who consistently post for ukip.

On here today we have MH saying that they are off to join them and Chad posting his pro-ukip anti-Conservative stuff.
I have just responded to those statements and quoted some facts, with references, about how each party is growing or declining.

[AlexW]

I'd treat MORI with immense scepticism: as a long-time follower of the politicalbetting.com blog I have always been impressed with Mike Smithson's deconstruction of the polls.

MORI put us five points ahead of Labour at one point just before the last election. Bob Worcester called the last US presidential election for Kerry (and IIRC the previous one for Gore). It is notoriously volatile. If ICM and YouGov start showing Labour leads, I'd start worrying.

[James Maskell]

We need all the major polls involved, otherwise it skews the results. We may not like the polls that are produced but it doesnt deny the fact they exist.

I do worry about these polls. We should have a higher lead than this.

As for UKIP, what about everyone stop talking about it and trying to wind up Chad...

[Northerntory]

"I do worry about these polls. We should have a higher lead than this."
James, a few polls ago you wanted to wait a few months to get a better picture, but then the conservatives were in the lead in that one.
As for having a higher lead, I am just happy that we have been consistantly in the lead for a few months now. Considering the kind of poll ratings we have had over the last 12 years I think that we should be a little bit happier and more positive.
I know that David Cameron is doing a good job as leader but even he can't be expected to produce an election winning poll rating in 11 months, but at least he is going in the right direction.

[paul Newman]

There is on the other hand a poll in the DT that looks very encouraging for Cameron( At a glance )

I `m not sure when figures are produced that are then dismissed as unreliable what the point of the excercise is . (?)

[James Maskell]

That I did, but I dont think that impedes on me commenting that we should have a higher poll rating...

The problem is that we need to be polling a fair few points above what we want to get in a General Election. Given Labours screwing up of everything the polls really should be higher across all polls.

[Stuart Raven]

"There is on the other hand a poll in the DT that looks very encouraging for Cameron( At a glance"

Are you talking about the one in today's DT? The one that shows that the public's trust in the Tories' economic competence has dropped by 5 points while Labour's rating has remained constant?

Regarding membership; whether it has fallen (as previously alleged) or risen slightly it's hardly the triumph we were previously told to expect.

And as for the pathetic whingers who complain that there are too many anti-Cameron posts on here, maybe they should urge their hero to back some Tory policies for a change.

If it weren't for the fact that the Scots Tories are the genuine article I doubt I'd still be a member of the party.

[Andy Stidwill]

MORI got the exit poll at the last election absolutely spot-on, so they can't be as unreliable as some people are saying.

[Roger Mortimore]

In reply to hf (at 12:23), MORI applied no weighting to the final election poll in 2005 that was not applied to all our other election polls. There were two extra minor adjustments (not weightings) that accounted for the likely votes of those who refused to say how they would vote and for an anticipated higher "overclaim" of voting certainty among Labour and Lib Dem than Tory supporters. Each of these adjustments changed one party's percentage support by one point and left the others unchanged.
In fact MORI's final poll was less adjusted and weighted than any of the other companies’ final polls. The raw unweighted and unadjusted figures (excluding those expressing no voting intention at all) were Conservative 31%, Labour 38%, LD 23%; the final published projection was Conservative 33%, Labour 38% and LD 23%. No fiddling, no manipulation, just good sampling.
May I suggest that if you want factual information about polls and polling methods you ask the pollsters? All reputable polling companies are open about their methods and the details of their published polls; gossip about polls from other sources is frequently inaccurate.
Roger Mortimore
Senior Political Analyst, Ipsos MORI

[Adrian Owens]

Stuart at 17:21,

If the Scottish Tories are the genuine article how come they seem to be proposing that pensioners get reduced council tax?

This can only be achieved by increasing the amount of grant provided to Scottish local authorities from the Scottish Executive. This reduces local accountability and therefore appears very unsound to me a mere Englishman.

Sorry Ed, I know its somewhat offtopic but I'm still waiting for a Scottish Conservative to defend this policy.

[Roslyn Freeman]

I am convinced that the A list and the naked rebuff to Candidates on the General Approved List disallowing them to fulfil their ambitions, is having a deep and long lasting affect on loyalty and activism for the Party.
If I was on the General list and barred from applying for a seat I would tell Cameron to Piss Off forever.I would also use my voice to tell people not to support, and by the time I had finished gobbing to family ,friends,aquaintances and others of the negatives in supporting Conservatism I will have made a big impact---imagine that around the country. This is called the CANVASSING GOBBING MULTIPLIER IN NEGATIVE MODE.
If we combine that with the soft cuddly"gim me a kiss" Hug a Granny of the Cameroonies and their woolly expletives on potential policy then MORI MUST BE RIGHT.

[Richard]

I recall hearing on the radio that a populus poll in the Times gave Brown a 51% to 24% rating against Cameron amongst swing voters. I can believe Brown might be ahead but by that much?!

[Aghast]

Very prescient @ 18:32 Roslyn, bang on the money.

Waiverers aren't buying into the programme, Core supporters are being actively repelled.

An extremely interesting way of going about building the party's support.

[hf]

In reply to Roger Mortimore, thanks for clarifying what Mori did. pb certainly wanted to know.

However your final forecast of Labour at 38% was still 2 points above the real vote of 36%.

Am I right in thinking that Mori has over forecast the Labour vote in many previous GE's?

[hf]

Richard said "I recall hearing on the radio that a populus poll in the Times gave Brown a 51% to 24% rating against Cameron amongst swing voters. I can believe Brown might be ahead but by that much?!"

It was only a poll of Labour swing voters and voters who would consider Labour. It was not all swing voters. Some may interpret it as a positive that Cameron is attracting some of these Labour swing voters away!

Other recent polls have found that about 1/5 of LD voters will return to Labour when Brown takes over and a similar number will shift from Labour to Conservatives.

[Yet Another Anon]

the Conservatives are in a far less advantageous position than New Labour in 94 to 97.
In terms of percentage support the Conservative Party is merely getting up to where Labour was around the 1992 General Election and the Labour Party is recovering support that switched to the Liberal Democrats over the 2nd Gulf War, the fact is that the Conservative Party so far has not reached the strong position Labour was in after Black Wednesday.

As for the actual poll itself, opinion polls especially ones only 1.5 years after a General Election are a very poor measure and even by the pollsters own rather optimistic margins of error would put Labour support at somewhere between 34% and 40% and Conservative support between 32% and 38%, presumably Liberal Democrat support in the poll was in the order of 15%, so about the only thing you could say that this poll was very much suggestive of is that the Liberal Democrats are facing the prospect of losing many of the gains they have made since 1992.

[Sally Roberts]

I think the "A List" debacle and the gimmicks such as meeting rappers haven't helped! Yogi - re your post of 11.25 I don't think we are mimicking Labour but I do agree that we want to get back to what you call "old fashioned" Conservatism - I'd prefer to call it down-to-earth or practical Conservatism. I do think we should lower taxes - but not at the expense of keeping the economy stable.

[Jack W (Highlands & Islands Branch)]

Editor. The missing figure for the Lib Dems is 18%.

[TomTom]

I recall hearing on the radio that a populus poll in the Times gave Brown a 51% to 24% rating against Cameron

Brown stands in Scotland...........what matters is having strong local candidates in each and every seat which gives the local franchise - but if they aren't in place already establishing strong local credentials they may as well not bother standing

[malcolm]

Not great is it? The polls have been all over the place during the past couple of months and I wouldn't get too excited about this particular poll unless the next two or three from different polling orginations show similar results. What does seem to be true though is that we have fallen back a little in recent months. Whilst I don't buy the message that we need to take a major turn right we do have to attack Labour much harder than we have recently and also give a clearer idea as to what we should do.

[AlexW]

Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day...MORI managed to eventually get it right in the exit polls, but only having lurched wildly from a five-point Tory lead to a ten-point Labour lead and everywhere in between over the course of a month.