Brown trails Cameron by 11% in 'best PM' stakes

Last weekend's opinion polls which showed the two main parties level-pegging have proved to be as irrelevant and misleading as ConservativeHome suggested that they were.  The first poll after the Party Conference season - by ICM for The Sunday Telegraph - gives the Tories a 6% lead (up 5% in seven days).

Particularly encouraging for the Tory leadership is news that David Cameron now enjoys a 45% to 34% lead over Gordon Brown when voters are asked 'who would you prefer as PM?'  The poll will be a boost for John Reid who, according to the ConservativeHome Members' panel, would be the Labour leader that would most worry grassroots Tories.

Team Cameron will also be encouraged to learn that they enjoy a 19% to 17% lead on who can be most trusted with the NHS.  More than one-third of voters are not prepared to trust either party, however, with what David Cameron has described as one of the great achievements of the twentieth century.

Three ICM findings should give Mr Cameron some pause for thought:

1. The LibDems are not going away.  This latest poll shows Ming's party at 20%.  It is difficult to see the Tories winning a parliamentary majority without LibDem support retreating in southern England.
2. The majority of voters want British troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq by the end of the year.  It is possible that the situation might deteriorate over the next two to three years (unless there is a major increase in deployment) and a 'troops out' Liberal Democrat party might gain voters.
3. 52% of voters believe that you can have tax cuts and economic stability or simply prefer tax cuts.  It is vital that George Osborne does not box themselves into a corner on taxes when it is likely that there will be a real hunger for tax relief at the next General Election.

Comments

[matt wright]

I and others tried repeatedly to have rational debates on various threads but Christina and others have lowered the discourse to shouting and ranting. yet again I repeat I am not a blind follower of Cameron and I have posted constructive criticsim on a number of occasions. Yet I do think he is heading in the right direction. We do need to win over the centre ground and we are. Labour are worried about this as I know personally from comments from them. I do think the fopcus on Social Responsibility is exactly the right one. It is an approach that can address and solve the key problems in the country today. We have to move forward and most party members are happily doing so even if change feels a little painful at times (as change always is).

Matt

[James Maskell]

One thing about responsibility. Its great that Cameron wants businesses to show responsibility but we must also campaign for personal responsibility...the welfare state for example is a big example of the personal responsibility issue we need to tackle. Personal debt is another example of this.