Another headline poll in the middle of conference season that tells us very little

As I posted yesterday we can only begin to judge the public mood a fortnight or so after voters have had chance to digest all of the party conferences.

Comments

[Rob]

How do you calculate your 'Poll of polls'?

[Richard]

So the left-wing vote is going back to Labour from the Lib Dems.

[Editor]

A mean average of the last five polls by each of the main pollsters Rob. Is my arithmetic wrong?

[Mike Routhorn]

Tony Blair's last hurrah was always going to buoy NuLabour. Let's see how things look after this week and then when the Labour infighting begins.

[John]

I've mentioned it before, but its the dear old floating five. The floating five, mainly left/liberal voters who are very news motivated. They drift between the three main parties, settling on the one who they think is more inclined to their views. If Labour has a good week its off to them, and so on. So all three main parties are now controlled by five per cent of the electorate. Was democracy supposed to be like this?

[John Hustings]

I don't think there's any doubt that the general direction of the polls at the moment isn't good for the Tories, or very much of an endorsement of Cameron.

[Tapestry]

Yes but Cameron should still wait til Blair's gone. If the best liar in the world is up against you, it's very hard to tell the truth. Once he's gone, Cameron should open up.

[hiltonbridgeswrongontax]

Why aren't you covering this poll?

It is another piece of evidence that suggests the Ashcroft / Bridges / Hilton unit is lying to everybody about the market research - or Maude is lying about what they are telling him...?

Yes the Party must rebrand to sell tax cuts - but why don't they actually rebrand instead of talking about it?

[Tapestry]

It's good not be high in the polls this week. That would only drive Conservatives to attack their leader during the conference instead of listening to what he's trying to say. It suits Labour and Conservative campaigns to pretend it's level pegging this week.

Will this be the week that Conservatives begin to believe that David Cameron really is a Conservative? Once his own Party back him, it will be much easier to take the attack to the other side, and confront the media.

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Labour have just had a week of non-stop media coverage. It is no surprise that they have risen a few points, the encouraging thing is that they have not taken a chunk out of the Conservative support. Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting expected Labour to have a lead in these polls - they do not.

Next month's polls will be important, firstly to see what sort of Conference bounce the Conservative poll rating gets, and then a few weeks after that to see what the lasting effect of these Conferences has been.

[Thomas Hobbes]

We are possibly mid-Parliament and we cannont get a good lead going. The Electoral Calculus site shows us unable to form a government. Imagine what will happen when Labour gets its new leader. A spike in the polls may be hard to reverse. DC will no longer be the new boy and will have run out of stunts.

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

The Electoral Calculus site takes no account of differential swing in marginals, and their notional majorities are hideously off in most cases.

[John]

I've always found it amazing that political activists, always find a positive in polls even when it brings them bad or indifferent news. Still looking for a silver lining is what keeps most activists in their respective parties, it's what differentiates them from the rest of us.

First of all the comment, 'Labour was bound to improve its position, because of the media coverage' media coverage does not guarantee an increase in a party's poll rating, often the opposite. Cherie Blair's remarks you would have thought of as being a negative. What that is an admission of is that Labour had a positive conference. If so it should be worrying for the Conservatives that a party in its third term, with all of its recent problems, its leadership unresolved, should have got any sort of bounce at all. I'm beginning to wonder, what does Labour have to do too really slump in the polls!

[Denis Cooper]

An economic disaster would do the job, with thousands of businesses going bust across the country each month, leading to a couple of million people losing their jobs and then in many cases their houses. So far Labour has avoided that, while memories of the ERM are only just fading.

[Andrew]

"If so it should be worrying for the Conservatives that a party in its third term, with all of its recent problems, its leadership unresolved, should have got any sort of bounce at all."

Nah, exactly the same thing happened after the Lab conference last year. Only difference is now we're level/marginally ahead, whereas then we were 8/9/10% behind.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

It isn't the polls that matter it is the lack of leadership - Vapid Cameron just has no carisma, no talent, no style, no gravitas and can't lead - he is failing on all fronts to either impress or attract back the 5,000,000 who want to vote Conservative but with his wishy washy srell out of Conservatism the new pinko pleaase everyone Tory lack of leadrership and values are just sliding to oblivion.
What does Tory stand for - silly me I forget 'say anything to get elected' just as The Vapid one did to become leader - he lied about 80% of Westminster's work rubber stamping EU diktat - he lied to pretend he believed in Britain. Now no one believes him.
Remember David Rockerfeller? I am sure little Oliver will:
>""We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times,
Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have
attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion
for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to
develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the
lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more
sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government.
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world
bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination
practiced in past centuries." David Rockefeller... Baden-Baden, Germany 1991<
Until you address the EU you have no chance as however much you hide the facts no one will trust you on any of the rest.
Every phrase of The Marr interview is soft, weak, implausible and shows no spark of Conservatism just Vapid Tory wet.
The day The Conference starts and like UKIP you have no leader just a little man out of his depth who had to lie and cheat to get elected.
Do you realise for all the angst if both the liars and all their residual supporters were amalgamated you have both burned off so many activists in exchange for flatulent publicity of no lasting value or gravitas that even together you would not form a Government.
Do hurry up and smell the coffee dump your leadership and back your activists - fire the parasites, sychophants and puppet masters and back the genuine activists to get back the 5,000,000 who can't & won't vote for either Tory or their off shoots UKIP who have lost their way almost as clearly as has Vapid & the Tories.
Doubt me then look at the polls - with Labour in TOTAL disaray, immigration all but aflame, hospital squalour and the EU running Britain into the ground the New Tory + UKIP don't even make a majority!
For lack of sound leadership - two little boys, out of their depth, no bottom, no gravitas and founded on dishonesty!

[Monday Clubber]

"Another headline poll in the middle of conference season that tells us very little"

If the poll had shown an increased majority for Cameron I'm sure that the heading would have been exactly the same...

...not!

BTW, Cameron's decision to make two big speeches during the Conference is a crass error.

Doesn't he know that the leader remains shtum until the big moment at the end and then stands up and wows everybody?

Seems he's determined to learn nothing from Maggie.

[Thomas Hobbes]

Can't have it both ways - this site cries from the rooftops when a "headline" poll gives us good news, but poo-poos it when it clearly gives bad news. Labour are eating themselves alive - Mrs Blair is bitching about Brown, Prescott is bonking like a randy bulldog in a stetson, Blair is on the edge of some honours scandal and we are losing soldiers in Iraq - but we still cannot get a commanding lead. One poster on this page says he's happy we are not ten points behind - I can't believe that we are not polling into the 50s. But we will not do so until Trendy Dave does something that the public can relate to.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

Monday Clubber states | October 01, 2006 at 16:46:
>"BTW, Cameron's decision to make two big speeches during the Conference is a crass error."<

Who else could he trust not to outshine him? Tell the truth or make a speech of ANY consequence?

How could he risk David Davis, William Hague or even Michael Howard?

You saw how weak a speaker Little Oliver is both against/with Roger Helmer on a public platform organised by Harry Randal recently and in interview on TV where clearly he just doesn't cut it.

So who else? Francis Fraude - I think not he is reveilled by many in the Party, Clark - he has been consistently rejected by the Party, Berkow, Duncan, Osborne, Willets, need I go on - let's face it put them all together and they could not fill a paper sack with their personalities let alone a conference hall!

One only had to watch little Cameron being shepparded around by the pary bully Clarke acting as his minder, puppet master and prompt on TV to realise just how bereft of ability The Vapid one is as he does his washing up in double cuffed cufflinked shirt, clearly too inexperienced to load his own dishwasher!

I guess affiliation with the Trillions of Rothchild family money and the steerage of Astors there is little need for a spine!

There are 5 Million of us want to vote Conservative and back Britain - it just isn't going to happen with this effete little man.

[malcolm]

Can't you ever post without having to resort to childish abuse Greg L-W? It's not big and it's not clever.Grow up.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

Malcolm - do you think YOUR comment will attract back 5 Million voters?

I am flattered by your comment as clearly you can not fault the issues I raised.

Perhaps if there were Conservatives willing to tell the truth and determined to GET BRITAIN BACK - the uselessd might not have risen to the top.

Perhaps rather than childishly attacking me as the messenger you could actually grow up and deal with the message, whether you consider the message content childish is a point perhaps you could justify.

Break with Vapidity and address the content not the style.

Address the facts led however they may have been made!

[John Coles]

I agree, Malcolm, that Greg L-W is not strong on tact and, indeed, his argument would be more telling if he could master understatement. However, the unfortunate and unignorable fact about Greg's perorations is that there is a seam of truth beneath all that he says. There are many millions who could be galvanised to support the the Tory party if it were just that - Tory. Unfortunately Mr Cameron is coming over as some sort of liberal progressive and, I believe, that stance is repelling far more that it is attracting.
It is almost touching to see the good Councillor, Iain Lindley, looking for post-conference bounces - it's hardly the stuff of victory. Others more versed in politics than I am have made the point that seems utterly convincing: right now, in today's circumstances, we should be 10 points ahead. Today's soggy middle-ground policies, or non-policies, will not do.

[malcolm]

Don't be flatter yourself Greg please don't flatter yourself. In a sometimes crowded field your posts are amongst the most childish to appear on this site.
PS You don't raise any 'issues', just abuse.

[Thomas Hobbes]

Greg is right - who else is there at the top level. We are stuck with the Old Tories just like Labour in the 1980s was stuck with Old Labour. We have no new blood in the upper ranks - just a bunch of toffs and petty-businessmen. Labour, I fear will post a new front bench of the 1997 intake at the next election and we will counter them with a disjointed thin grey line of nonentities who look old and out of date. I can't help but worry that Cameron's webcast is our duffle coat moment.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

but Malcolm do try very hard to address the undeniable fact that what I say it fundamentally true - I am but a mere voter and to be attacked by you is just a childish oversight on your part. That I use lampoon and ridicule of people on high salaries and pedastals that make them look like pygmies on display is merely frustration after 60 years of awareness. Senility as an early onset perhaps but I am indeed flattered that the points I make you are clearly unable to address.
It is unfortunate that you resort to the childish abuse of the messenger merely as I choose to highlight a point as a voter - howsoever5 I may do it your response is clearly inadequate and childish.

[Monday Clubber]

"Don't be flatter yourself Greg please don't flatter yourself."

Labour troll! Labour troll!

But seriously, Malcolm, Greg has a point. How can one take seriously a man who claims to be a Conservative while churning out endless anti-conservative PC slogans and gimmicks.

I sense from your posts that you are not a member of the hard left of the party. You're actually uncomfortable with some of their utterances.

Perhaps it's time you opened your mind to some of the things that real people (as opposed to TRG sycophants) are saying about the Cameron Project.

And watching from home, far away from that ghastly, sweaty and unstylish hall in Bournemouth, doesn't it all look rather like a session of introverted petit-bourgeois navel-gazing?

Relax! You're among friends.

They're called Real Conservatives.

[Jack Stone]

Cameron will look out of date against Brown or Reid. Please lets have some sense on this site. The party is in the lead, not behind Labour. We also have the most popular leader who would beat Brown by an even greater margin than Blair.
When Cameron talks about optimism I presume he as been looking at this site where most make Frazier out of Dad`s Army look like the sunshine kid! Its about time you all listened to him and started to have a smile on your faces for a change.

[Fred Baker]

We will never progress as long as Liam Fox is a spokesman.
On today’s Evening News he blew an opportunity to castigate Labour Policy in Afghanistan.
This is what he should have said
“The Russians gave up on Afghanistan. A token British presence makes it a graveyard for our troops. A determined International Force is required.”

[Monday Clubber]

"Its about time you all listened to him and started to have a smile on your faces for a change."

Jack, every time I read one of your posts I have a bloody great grin on my face.

[John Coles]

I agree with Fred Baker, Liam Fox is an abysmal spokesman. There is much he should make of his brief, if only out of a sense of duty towards our Troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, but he seems not to dare criticise. I wonder whether he is aware of being critically overseen by CCHQ. In any event, thank God he didn't make Leader.

[malcolm]

Very sadly John Coles I'm inclined to agree with you.Liam has been a huge disappointment.He should be kicking the doors of the MOD and NATO in over the bungling of our mission in Afghanistan and what do we get? 'This mission cannot be allowed to fail' and then....nothing.
This mission is going to fail if our troops are not given sufficeint support.

[Thomas Hobbes]

Aye we are all doomed. The Tories are being run by Private Pike - all he needs is a scarf.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

There is hope for Conservatism and there is still a small window of opportunity to GET BRITAIN BACK but it can hardly bring a smile to any patriots face that The VERY best comment made on this thread about Vapid Cameron is that Liam Fox is worse!

Just think if Liam had lied like the Vapid one he could well be leader and doing the washing up on web cam!

The only smiles in politics at the moment are on the communist faces of Tiny Blur the brown smudge and their next leader as they watch the New Tories floundering rudderless as having sold out their principles, values and integrity to try to seize the centre ground at a time when the EU's project led forward by Presscot and his common purpose is failing - the smile on the face of Britain's enemies is relief; relief that Vapid Cameron would clearly struggle to lead a rubber duck on a string around his own conference hall but never mind Liam Fox is worse!

For heavens sake and for the sake of these United Kingdoms get a grip and find a leader of charisma, clarity, courage and integrity to replace the failed team that has failed to raise your poll figures, failed to consequentially attract the 5,000,000 people who want to vote for Conservatism and Britain free independent and sovereign when all the New Tories can do is lose members and particularly activists and pat themselves on the back that they aren't as bad as Liam!

Get a grip and get a leader NOW.

[Derek Bevan]

Hasnt the penny dropped yet! the 5m plus from the 50m(ish),are going to UKIP and ENGLISH DEMOCRATS.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

Derek Bevan commented:
>"Hasnt the penny dropped yet! the 5m plus from the 50m(ish),are going to UKIP and ENGLISH DEMOCRATS."<

UKIP is vanishing as a Party or even Pressure Group of any consequence, faster than snow in summer, with under 3,500 members voting for their leader despite lies, cheating, dishonesty and duplicitous smear campaigns in which he colluded - more people go to many classical concerts - they are now history and their only hope for the future is if someone overturns the corrupt leadership, which is unlikely as there are so few competent activists left that it is not worth the effort.

As for The English Democrats - well a quaint idea but underpinned with little political competence or real hope, well funded for a very few selected seats, and accidentally pandering to the EU's desire to smash these United Kingdoms, to Regionalise them and thereby force their will upon our politically betrayed peoples, denied self determination, democracy, Justice, independence and sovereignty - betrayed by British Politicians and corrupt Civil Servants.

The 5 Million, and growing, who desperately wish to vote Conservative will sit on their hands - partly from apathy but largely in disgust at the betrayal - is it any wonder 1,000 qualified British citizens a day are deserting this befouled island and its odious political self seekers.