46% to 33% prefer Cameron to Brown

The ConservativeHome poll of polls and a new survey for The Daily Telegraph from YouGov both give the Tories a 7% lead over Labour.

The most encouraging finding for David Cameron's office, however, is YouGov's discovery that 46% of voters would prefer a government led by David Cameron to 33% preferring a government led by Gordon Brown.

Friday morning (8.45am) update
New Telegraph Editor tilts newspaper towards David Cameron

A fortnight or so ago ConservativeHome speculated as to whether the new Editor of The Daily Telegraph would tilt the newspaper's attitude towards David Cameron in a more friendly direction.  It appears that the answer to that question is 'yes'.  Back in July The Telegraph/ YouGov poll had the Tories 5% ahead and The Telegraph chose a 'Support for Cameron begins to cool' headline.  Today - with the Tories 7% ahead - the newspaper chooses a 'Tory leader surges ahead of Brown as voters' choice' headline for its front page.  Last week The Telegraph was quite gentle with the Tories on tax.  Today's Telegraph leading article still thinks David Cameron has more to do but contrast today with July's assessment by Anthony King, the newspaper's polling expert:

KING IN JULY: "The Conservative Party increasingly resembles a tired runner panting along in sweltering heat. He is ahead in the race but only because his main rival is even more exhausted.  According to YouGov's latest monthly survey for The Daily Telegraph, 38 per cent of voters now say they would back the Conservatives in an early general election. That represents a decline of one point since last month and only a modest improvement - five points - since the Tories' poor showing in the general election last year.  The Conservatives have been shuffling along with between 32 and 38 per cent support for most of the past three years. They have occasionally attained 40 per cent but it is more than a decade since they last exceeded 40 per cent.  The Tories today are no better off than they were under William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard.  David Cameron's election as Tory leader last December has so far made remarkably little difference. An initial tick upwards has been followed by several ticks downwards.  Voters still seem not to know who the Tories are or what they stand for."  Today Professor King is preferring to emphasise that the Conservative lead (although virtually identical) has been sustained.

THE TELEGRAPH LEADER TODAY: "As for Mr Cameron, he has put the Tories back in the game. For the first time since Black Wednesday in 1992, they have opened a consistent — if hardly convincing — opinion poll lead. Now comes the tough part. Mr Cameron must turn his party into a ruthlessly effective opposition — for, when Mr Brown finally take the reins, he will strain every sinew to demonstrate that it is not just Tony Blair who can hammer the Tories. It promises to be quite a fight."

Comments

[Andrew Woodman]

Looks like the Labour and Brown lead poll was a freak then. Always trust Yougov the most and this is very encouraging.

[Fraser]

This poll seems to back up the ICM poll earlier in the week. Must be a good sign.

[Northerntory]

This poll is in line with the ICM and Communicate research polls announced earlier this week, as usual Mori seems distinctly out of touch.
It is not yet a majority winning figure but after 15 years in the wilderness it feels good to be well in front of Labour.
Those who seek to rubbish the poll findings with references to the leads that labour enjoyed pre 97' should investigate the new weightings applied to present day polls.

[Chris]

This is simply proof that MORI aren't to be trusted (and the withdrawal of their results from the poll of polls is welcomed).

As for the other results this week I doubt we can say much more, other than we need more of the same! Really appreciate the talk about tax in a manner which isn't committal/reckless.

[CDM]

Highly encouraging, and I'm sure Labour have even further to fall before they hit rock bottom.

What was the lowest figure the Major government polled?

[Stuart Raven]

Down goes the "Cameron lead" by 3% from the last Guardian poll but of course the Cameroonies and their faithful sockpuppets are still dancing in the street.

I've got bad news for them.

Not one of these polls - even the most wildly optimistic - indicates anything better than a hung parliament.

Personally I anticipate - sadly - another Labour victory but a hung parliament would actually be the best result for Britain.

The price of LibDem support for Nulabour will be PR. It will be an exciting move that will spell the end for the ridiculous coalition of incompatibles that is today's Tory Party.

The slimmed-down party likely to emerge uder PR will no longer offer a home for liberal/socialist careerists.

So sad.

[Alexander Drake]

What then is your alternative, Stuart? You can't deny Cameron's made enormous electoral progress in a short period of time. Perhaps a healthy dose of expectation management is in order on everyone's part, including yours. I'd say knocking on the door of 40% after almost a year as leader is reasonable progress, don't you?

Or don't you want to see Team Tory in No. 10?

[Zhukov]

All heartening news.

The Lib Dem vote continues to bob around - it would be great if one of the pollsters would do a big regional survey.

It would be very interesting to see how the Lib vote is holding up in the South-West in comparison to the North.

[hf]

Very encouraging picture in the polls, we could do with the Lib Dems staying below 20% which will cause them major internal problems.

Getting the Telegraph back would be very welcome.

[Martin Cole]

Has George Jones also been instructed to confuse? I raised the following query on the 'Ukip Uncovered' blog this morning:

"Something strange in Telegraph's YouGov poll report

The headline predicting Cameron could now easily beat Brown in this morning's coverage of the latest YouGov poll, linked here, seems to sit oddly with this statement in the article by George Jones:

Disaffected voters appear increasingly ready to look at alternatives such as the UK Independence Party or the Greens. Support for the minor parties totals 13 per cent, higher than at any time in recent history.

Looking at the poll result illustration minor parties are in fact shown as steady at 13 per cent, the same result as reported in September!

Could it be that it is one particular minor party that has surged - a fact that the Telegraph might not wish to trumpet as it could then easily be seen to make their headline a nonsense?

The full result of an earlier poll by YouGov on what Conservative Party members actually make of Cameron sampled at the end of September, may be found in pdf format from *this link."

*Visit the blog for the active link.

[Old Hack]

I concur with today Torygraph leader. The hard bit is yet to come.

Under emphasised but equally interesting is the rise of the 'others' in this poll. It is they who are causing the Lib Dems and Labour as much as we are. Political disaffection perhaps, but it is clearly not the greater realignment to the Conservatives we need to avoid a hung Parliament.

'Change' as a mantra isn't going to win over the disaffected and disillusioned types who may take a more sceptical view of public school educated Conservative politicians.

There's got to be some damn good reasons put forward to vote Conservative rather than the rag-tag and bobtail of UKIP, BNP, the Greens or even the Monsters. All of these parties suck in precious votes that may make a crucial difference in key seats.

In the absence of policies on tax, immigration and every other Conservative initiative deemed illiberal by the Independent newspaper and the BBC, what are we going to do to close the deal with these voters?

[Mark Wadsworth]

Seems like spurious accuracy to me.

For all Cameron's faults, 100% of me prefers Cameron to Brown.

[George Hinton]

Well no surprises there then, people realise that Gordo has lead one of the most audacious raids on their pockets for many a decade.
If anything this poll will reinforce many prejudices within the Labour Party that they need to do away with NuLab and return to the grass roots of socialism, which will see many fancied runners and riders being unseated.
All good news for the Cons, David needs to keep pounding away at B-Liar and to show up his mendacity and failure, which are his legacy.

[ratbag]

Alexander Drake asks "Or don't you want to see Team Tory in No. 10?" Now the short answer from me is "NO" . Why not? Firstly I don't trust them, having broken a vital promise already; secondly they seem to be more Blairite than Conservative, and thirdly Brown's legacy is going to be a be a near economic disaster and I don't want him to go until this is fully understood by the general public.

Sure the punters prefer Cameron to Brown. But the voting intention figures are what matter, since the preferential choice is not the one given at an election. And, anyway, note the rise in the Don't Knows from 17 to 21% in the Brown v Cameron beauty contest and also note the great increase in "Others"

The main "lead" indicator is still only 7% which is not enough and the Labour backers rose by 1% as well as the Conservatives.

The devil - as usual - is in the small print.

(I deplore bloggers' dismisal of MORI because it seems to be less favourable and I also think it a crying shame that the blog itself has done what no pollster would ever do, made an editorial judgment in place of reporting facts!!)

[EML]

Good bye Sir Ming?!

[Opinicus]

At the risk of beginning to sound like the elder Cato -
What is the strategy to get to the 43% necessary to win the next GE.

I will be voting UKIP at present - the first time I have ever not voted Conservative in a GE. I am one of the 13%.

@Alexander Drake
The problem you at CCHQ have is that the answer to your question "Dont you want TeamTory to win" is not necessarily. Following the A List, "TeamTory" is a self perpetuating oligarchy of metropolitan 30 somethings, many of whom have joined the Party very recently and who have junked much of the philosophy that the rest of us believe in. Cameron's lack of loyalty to his membership is increasingly reflected in their lack of loyalty to him.

[More to the Point]

You're taking your Telegraph Kremlinology just a bit too far. As the old adage has it - headlines fit pages, nothing else.

[Annabel Herriott]

I agree with Ratbag that Labour should be made to clear up its own chicken slurry, and Oh Boy! Is that chicken house getting full. Standing room only already.
Anyway, hung parliament should do for them nicely, have to go back to the country , tout de suite, then DC goes to No 10 around 2011/12. Sounds feasible. Read the Runes!!!!

[Henry Cook]

"I will be voting UKIP at present - the first time I have ever not voted Conservative in a GE. I am one of the 13%."

I will be voting Conservative at present - sticking with the party who I supported through the tough times. I am one of the 39% (God it feels good to say that!!)

[Cardinal Pirelli]

Jonathan@30

You inadvertently hit on the Cameron strategy and it involves losing voters like you to UKIP in order that greater numbers of voters from the liberal democrats and labour feel able to switch their vote to us.

It is clear that those late and unlamented on here, and those who remain, are perfectly happy to be pure and powerless, as such you can still be comfortable in your purity and powerlessness in the future, albeit outside the conservative party.

[Opinicus]

@Cardinal
It was hardly inadvertent as Dave's strategy is crystal clear (about the only aspect of his intentions which is but never mind). The issue is whether his strategy is correct. The polls suggest that it might not be. With others including me at 13% and no policies or tax cuts to persuade the 2005 non voters to turn out next time, he is going to find it very difficult to reach 43% without a collapse in the Liberal vote.

As it says in the good book "What profiteth it a man if he gain the whole world but lose his soul". But to lose it for 39%.

Besides even if he pulls it off in what sense will he be powerful. In office certainly, in ermine later, in a Jaguar meanwhile. But if he is too scared of the Independent or too hamstrung by pre-election promises to enact anything Conservative, in what sense will he be in power. Unless your pseudonym conceals an A lister or a current MP, in what sense will you have anything other than powerlessness and impurity.

[Sean Fear]

"Or don't you want to see Team Tory in No. 10?"

I want to see Labour hammered, which is not quite the same thing.

I would very much like to see the Team Tory of 1979-97 in No.10. I would hate to see the Team Tory of 1970-74 in No.10.

I'm not sure yet, which type of Team Tory is on offer.

[Phelps]

"I'm not sure yet, which type of Team Tory is on offer."

Sucha pity some people only see things in terms of the 1970s / new vs old / right and left. Team Cameron is about today's and tomorrow's challenges and in the best Conservative spirit all the answers point to the State backing off people and allowing people to make their own choices. Thatcher would not have implemented the same policies today as she did in 1979. Not that she wouldn't have made a good PM in 2006 but because she would have seen the problems are different. Having cleared up the mess of the 1970s we're now faced with the legacy of the late 1990s and early 00s. People have got to get their heads round the fact that yesterday's battles have already been fought, it's time to move on. And if Cameron made a few errors in allowing some mediocre people on to the A List well done to the local associations who still picked the best of the bunch. Either get with the project or get off the boat, there's no room for dinosaurs.

[Sean Fear]

Sorry, but I don't think you've answered my point.

I don't know yet whether a Conservative government led by David Cameron would be an effective one, such as the 1979-97 government, or a useless one, such as the 1970-74 government.

So far, most of what I've heard from our front bench is the very opposite of the "State backing off and allowing people to make their own choices."

[Andy Stidwill]

If I remember correctly, the lowest figure polled by the Major government was 26% in about 1995.

[John O]

Sean Fear - You won't be able to provide an answer until there is a Conservative government.

But the question is whether you actually wish a Cameron-led Conservative party to win the next election. And you must be about the only Chairman of a Constituency Asociation in the country about whom legitimate uncertainty exists on that point.

[Rob]

Sean, the jury may still be out, but it worries me that my instinct is telling me Team Tory '70-74. Phelps, this is not about being a 'dinosaur' fighting y/day's battles, but about who can offer the resolve to fight back for the liberal economic philosophy that can go a long way to solving the structural problems this country still suffers from in welfare/healthcare/pensions/education etc. There is no point in offering 'watered down' compromises to suit various focus groups. Where has the debate/arguements and the art of political persuasion gone?

[DavidDPB]

I'm not quite sure why anyone in 2006+ would want to vote for a party aimed at fixing the problems of 1979-1997.

[Sean Fear]

Again, you miss my point.

My point is that I want a successful Conservative government, not a useless one. By any yardstick, Ted Heath's government was worse than the one it succeeded.

[Northerntory]

Sean, I want a successful conservative government rather than a useless one. In fact I would say the just about everyone who votes wants one thing in it's government COMPETENCE, in fact with disillusionment of politicians so high it is vital.
How many people thought that either Mrs T or Tony Blair would win 3 GE's before they were elected PM. I sometimes feel that David Cameron is being written off by some before he even fights a GE.
This Labour government has not been honest or competent so why have people stopped voting rather than turn to the conservative opposition over the last 10 years? Its been the conservative party from 97-2005 which we need to avoid returning too.
Ask me to compare a David Cameron led government with that of previous conservative administrations when he has been PM for 4 years.

[ratbag]

Northerntory "David Cameron is being written off by some before he even fights a GE"

It's because he's broken a promise he made to get elected. It's because his policies are "spinning" rather than new thinking. It's because his Green leanings are half-baked based on dubious science. It's because - - -
The current Private Eye, to quote:

NEW WORDS:

OPPOSITION (n) body of persons who agree with the Government. Example:
"Her Majesty's Opposition is committed to wholehearted support of Mr Blair's excellent administration on all issues" (D. Cameron, Hansard 2006)

LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION: (n.in-substantive) person who is even more in agreement with the government than his colleagues. Example: "I want to be the new Blair." (D. Cameron, dinner party 2006).

GENERAL: (n) person who now fulfills role of Leader of the Opposition.
Example: "The government's policy has totally failed, says General."
(Sarah Sands, Daily Mail, 2006)

[Richard]

Yougov tend to be very reliable so this poll should encourage us.

[Mark Wadsworth]

Sean Fear 12.45

If we can choose our favorite cabinet from history, can I go for Major, Clarke, Hurd and Howard circa 1994-97?

No wars, no strikes, "green shoots", cheap housing, Sunday trading, pubs open in the afternoon, 800,000 civil servants turfed out and 1m new jobs in private sector, tax system stable, crime rate falling, a couple of embarrassing back benchers but no forced resignations at Cabinet level. And a bit of top totty in the shape of Edwina Currie and Virginia Bottomly.

All humming along nicely, nothing exciting to report, can somebody remind me why they got kicked out again?

[Cardinal Pirelli]

"And a bit of top totty in the shape of Edwina Currie and Virginia Bottomly."

I was with you all the way until that bit!

[Mark Wadsworth]

Does Your Grace prefer Beckett, Harman, Jowell?

No, I thought not!

[Right wingery]

Perhaps the REAL reason for such a good set of opinion polls (YouGov and ICM) is the publication of the Forsyth Tax Commission.

People are foaming at the mouth for just a glimmer of a prospect of some tax reduction.

Perhaps establishing these commissions, which are chaired by people who are going to publish some really popular policies without necessarily holding the party to implement them, is the masterstroke we have been overlooking??

[Teapastry]

There must be some mistake. Gordon Brown was promised by Blair in 1994 that one day he would be the most popular politician in Britain. Blair is welching on the deal. The unions have been bribed, Labour MP's threatened, but still the pollsters don't understand the facts - Brown is the best - the best I tell you. He's a master of economics, selling gold for $250 an ounce. He hit the lowest point in the market for 40 years. No hedge fund would come close. He's destroyed the pension industry, and condemned millions to poverty in old age. He's even stopped all exloration in the North Sea singlehanded, by taxing the oil companies to a standstill, making Britain dependent on foreign energy for the first time in a generation.

Pollsters what is your problem? You can have 100% final salary pensions for life if you want, seats in the House of Lords, a chance to meet Gordon's children even, but for Gord's sake, get your bloody facts right. I mean, Rupert Murdoch's backing Gordon Brown, Paul Dacre of the Daily Mail. These people are media demi-gods, so powerful and influential that it only takes a month or two of soft puffs for Gordon and he'll leave Cameron for dust. These people can turn round the tide of public opinion with their dead tree slices.

What part of 'Gordon's a genius' don't the British public understand? Don't they enjoy being the highest taxed nation in the world?

[Mark Wadsworth]

Teapastry!

Let me sum up in simple terms (at the risk of being barred like Monday Clubber or Christina Speight)

Shit is brown and Brown is shit.

[Sean Fear]

Mark, I'd agree with much of that, with the exception of Edwina Currie.

[Stuart Raven]

"And a bit of top totty in the shape of Edwina Currie and Virginia Bottomly."

If Mark Wadsworth thinks Edwina Currie and Virginia Bottomly are "top totty" he is either registerd blind or around 80 years old.

Which I suppose is about the average age for the English Tory membership these days. Makes me feel pleasurably young.

Sorry, but Team Kameron isn't about "The Future" ; it's about Bluelabour bullshit.

Sure I want to see a Tory in No 10.

Note carefully the word "Tory".

[Stuart Raven]

"Perhaps the REAL reason for such a good set of opinion polls (YouGov and ICM) is the publication of the Forsyth Tax Commission."

Agree 100%

Cameron was lagging in the polls as he pushed out the same old meaningless "we're changing" drivel.

Along comes Michael's excellent and challenging commission report recommending tax cuts and we're pulling into the lead again.

Cause and effect...sadly not for long

[Anatole]

"Perhaps the REAL reason for such a good set of opinion polls (YouGov and ICM) is the publication of the Forsyth Tax Commission."

and then

"Cause and effect"

Er ... or perhaps not. Are you guys for real? No-one on the streets has had the first clue about our tax policies, so it is probably just Cameron being savvy.

[James Maskell]

Having been cut from the internet for the past few days, Ive not been able to read the speeches and whatnot going on in Tory circles. Interesting proposal to withdraw from the Social Chapter...

So we have a poll saying that Cameron is preferred to Brown by 13 per cent. With another 21 percent undecided/dont know/whatever, the polls not as clear as it looks.

I see we are going through the same arguments too. The "are you a Tory?" question's been asked of someone critical of the Party, as happened to me a couple of days ago on this site. Its kind of childish really. We are all Tories, just some of us differ on the direction more than others. It doesnt make us any less Tory. Its pretty slack debating if you resort to that sort of questioning rather than looking at why these objections are around to begin with.

As for the most recent comment, if my local rags letters page is anything to go by, I must disagree with you. A letter points out the proposal to cut taxes on share options, ignoring all other options...well done Osborne for leading with a policy which makes us look like we support the rich!

[Northerntory]

"well done Osborne for leading with a policy which makes us look like we support the rich!"
Here we go, doom and gloom. James look at the ICM and Yougov polls rating for the conservatives, and try smiling at the fact that we are doing well after 12 years of abysmal ratings. Pretty churlish to use a few letter's in your local rag as an excuse to still complain about the present leadership and the progress we are making.
As to the rest of your argument it would help if I did not think that you would still find something to moan about even on the day David Cameron walked into No10 with a landslide. I can hear the words " we should have done better" coming to mind.