Voters unenthusiastic about "absolutely stupid" Brown

David Cameron's Conservative Party now enjoys an 8% lead over Labour according to a new YouGov poll for today's Telegraph.  The poll has been taken during the last 48 hours and so it will have captured voters' immediate reactions to turmoil inside the Government.  The 7% Tory lead in the ConservativeHome poll of polls is the largest Tory advantage since the series began.

Commenting on the poll, Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report doesn't find much comfort in the poll for Gordon Brown:

"There is little confidence that Gordon Brown will be an improvement on Tony Blair. Only 20% of people think he will be better than Blair, with 22% thinking he will be worse. Overall 30% of people think Brown will prove a good Prime Minister, with 38% thinking he will be a bad one. Only a third now think that Brown has done a good job as Chancellor, only a fifth think him honest and only a sixth like him. That said, he still has no serious challenger for the position - amongst Labour supporters he is first choice of over 50%, with John Reid second on just 9%."

Gordon Brown seeks to improve his standing in a page two article for today's Sun:

• "Between justice and evil, humanity and barbarism, democracy and tyranny, no one can afford to be neutral or disengaged."  This is close to plagiarism!  George W Bush in 2001 said: "Freedom and fear, justice and cruelty, have always been at war, and we know that God is not neutral between them."
• "I have already doubled the money we spend on security since 9/11 to £2billion per year, and I guarantee we will continue to spend whatever it takes to meet the new security demands we face, and our military commitments abroad."  Whatever it takes?  Try telling that to our under-equipped troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• "Alongside the national ID card scheme, our next step must be the introduction of biometrics in new passports and visas, and the screening of all passengers."  Is that the ID card scheme that is 'set to fail'?
• "My aim as Chancellor has since 1997 been a Britain strong in economic stability. In the years ahead, all our aims must be a Britain strong in stability, strong in security, and strong in the world: a Britain truly safe and secure in our hands."  Strong.  Strong.  Strong.   Mr Brown will wisely abandon trying to compete with David Cameron
  by talking, for example, about the Arctic Monkeys.  His best hope against the Tory leader is to contrast his strength and experience with David Cameron's untested inexperience.  It's vital that David Cameron addresses this risk by constant attention to his own homeland security credentials (as he did last month).

There's more trouble this morning for Brown with Charles Clarke questioning his behaviour over the last few days.  The former Home Secretary describes Mr Brown's behaviour as "absolutely stupid".  This may be the beginning of a concerted effort by Blairites to undermine Gordon Brown's hopes of succession and a preparation for the Blears-Reid-Johnson ticket...

Comments

[Prodicus]

67 per cent of Londoners don't want Brown as PM, according to a straw poll at the London Evening Standard online.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/londonnews/

[Serf]

67 per cent of Londoners don't want Brown as PM

Well here's to hoping that the Labour Party are stupid enough to pick him.

[EML]

Brown may well miss his chance. If, somehow, Blair manages to hold on to power until spring next year, Labour will be forced to pick someone the public actually likes.

Well done Blair for keeping Brown in the sidelines for so long, but oh boy did he look a drawn, withered, past-it figure during his speech yesterday. I almost felt sorry for him. Almost.

How anyone on this site can scoff at an eight-point lead at 40% in the polls is beyond me. Sure, Cameron isn't the perfect conservative leader, but he's good enough for me so far. And, most importantly, he looks to be on the way to being good enough for the country. Rather centre-Right than centre-Left.

[David Walker]

If I were the Labour party election co-ordinator in 2009 I would have a TV advert that shows DC talking about the Artic Monkeys, then cutting to Brown delivering a budget or making a policy driven speech, then cut to DC again making inane comments etc etc.
At the end a simple message about needing a country run by men not boys. I think that would be powerful, compelling stuff.

[changetowin]

David,

Trouble is it was Gordon Brown who talked about the Arctic Monkeys NOT David Cameron. So your PPB would hardly be compelling!

As Conservatives we should accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative and not design PPBs for the Labour Party!!!

[Lord Haw Haw]

Ed
Why not do a poll to determine how many of your regular posters actually want Cameron to win the next General Election? Judging from the gloomy posts which appear as each poll puts us ahead with Cameron, I suspect the results could be quite revealing!

[David Walker]

changetowin you are right and I apologise. Which band is it that 'Call me Dave' continues to mumble about loving?

Whatewver the detail we all know that DC is a vacuous mess while Brown has actually spent 9 years at the treasury ensuring that the British people have been able to live recession free. For all his other faults that will be a pretty strong message to take to the country.

DC justs talks about chocolate oranges, kiddies tops and how he worries about Globalisation. Who is advising him? My 80 year old Grandmother moans and worries, but she isn't trying to run the country. She would, however, make a better Tory leader than DC.

[Opinicus]

No one on this site apart from a few trolls who have wandered in from other parties doesnt't want Dave to be the next PM. The debate is over how great a PM he will be. He can be all soundbites and metropolitan spin but no substance and be Tony II or he can enunciate some policies/legislation based on Tory values that will change Britain out of its high tax wasted public expenditure, failing industry, culturally unsure, landscape damaged and over built current state. There is no current evidence for the latter, which as he gets nearer to the former, is causing some of us to despair early. CCHQ cant see any further than the election because that is their job. The rest of us are assuming (the triumph of hope over experience), with the self implosion of the Labour govt, that they might yet be up to their job and are more interested in what comes next.

If Dave is going to settle for being Tony 2, then there is a cogent and coherent argument that it would be better that he fail to become PM so that our hands were clean of the current state of the nation and that a new Leader or a new Party could do what needs to be done.

[christina speight]

Jonathan - So you dismiss Conservatives who disagree with you as "trolls". How long have you worked for the party ??

Cameron is despised by many who voted for him. A Tory who agrees with the Cameron critics on this blog has just written to me - - -

"Slowly but surely, the phoney Cameron will be exposed. I remember a feeling of dread I had just before the leadership ballot. I was sat in a restaurant with 12 of our most active members. All good right-wingers. Every single one of them (bar me) had voted for Cameron. I saw the same group last Saturday, and 9 of them had changed their mind and said they had been mistaken."

What's the point in swapping this failed government for a clone who supports their policies? The country need a clean break and someone who will reverse Gordon Brown and Blair's disastrous policies.

Meanwhile the YouGov poll gives the Tory lead of 8% points. BUT Labour's support has actually RISEN. On the present showing and with Labour at rock bottom there might not even be a Tory overall majority. That lead will dwindle as Labour gets its act together. WHY? Because Cameron has given nobody any vision or beliefs to fight FOR. If he went at the same time as Blair few would care or notice.

The party unfortunately is now taken over by Maude, Kenneth Clarke and the entire Tory Euro Network gang, Curry, Gummer, Taylor, Hurd, Howe, Britain, et al who have hi-jacked the party once again. This is the origin of the EPP betrayal.

I am a Conservative and have been all my life. But tragically I cannot see myself voting for them now.

[malcolm]

Absolutely disagree with you Jonathan. I admit to being more Cameron than anti but I also recognise that DCs view does not reflect that of the whole Conservative party and the views of others within the party will have to be reflected were we to gain power. Remember Tony Blair has only been able to adopt his presidential approach to politics on the back of the massive majorities of his first two administrations.Even with a healthy majority 66 as now you can see the wheels falling off. The chances of Cameron coming to power with anything like those majorities are practically nil so he will have to adopt a much more collegiate approach to governing than Blair ever has. I therefore have every confidence a Cameron government will be more 'Conservative' than it might appear now.

[malcolm]

Should have inserted the word 'pro' before Cameron

[Joe Mooney]

My friends,

Nearly everyone who phoned in to R5 this morning thought Gordon Brown was a back stabber.

I think as Mr Lawson said that it was DCs position in the polls that caused all the recent problems in the Government. That Gordon grin will be the undoing of him and this government. Old Gordon has blown his chances of becomming PM. In short he is a back stabber and the British people dont vote for back stabbers. Remember old Hezza.

[Chris]

Baxter for YouGov:
CON 338
LAB 268
LIB 13
CON Maj 26

Baxter for PoP:
CON 308
LAB 274
LIB 35
CON Short 18

Obviously with the YouGov figures the Lib Dems wouldn't lose as many seats as Baxter is showing. We'd probably end up with us being just 1 or 2 seats short of a majority in an actual election. All in all though, good showing, especially with us having done nothing to aid the Labour self destruction!

[Graham D'Amiral]

The yougov poll is very encouraging both in terms of the 8 point lead it gives the conservative party and that it shows dumping Tony Blair is unlikely to improve Labour's position much if at all.

Labour have had a week described by Bill Rammell as "A moment of madness" which does rather understate the situation. That the Prime minister felt the need to apologize to the country on behalf of the labour party shows the extent of the crisis and how he has failed to stamp his authority on the party.

We should not underestimate the role of David Cameron in this affair, it is because labour believe it is entirely possible the conservatives might win the next general election, that they are in this state of extreme panic. Many in the Labour party believe without urgent action the tories are going to walk back in to government. Tony Blair has been the greatest electoral asset the labour party has ever had, but now he is seen by his colleagues as their main electoral liability and what we have seen this week is a pretty ugly and undignified attempt to bundle a serving Prime minister out of downing street.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

I have to say, I found Charles Clarke's intervention this morning a bit baffling.

Having spent his time in government as an avowed Blairite, he then began sticking the knife into Blair and blatantly sucking up to Brown almost immediately after Blair sacked him, but now he's reverted to attacking Brown while talking up the leadership potential of Alan Milburn.

The man is about as consistent as service station gravy!

[G Wild]

Long live Cameron! The fact of the matter is, he has made us electable again by not banging on about the same old 'tory issues' from the dark days of IDS and Hague. He's a credit to our party and our country.
However, im sure he'll get round to it. Its all good PR, and my O' my did us Tories need good PR.

[George Hinton]

Not surprising that people are unenthusiastic for Brown, we can of course recall the smash and grab raid he made on pensions netting £5bn per annum. That has affected every individual and created the pensions crisis that has seen so many final salary schemes curtailed.
Indeed the only scheme that gained was that of MP's.
Blair and Brown are equally culpable of the mess that they have created, economic and social and the disarray of our laws.
A pox on the pair of them.
The Conservatives need to continue putting the boot into this lame duck PM and his equally hapless government.

[David Walker]

Before we start talking about too much backstabbing let us remember 'Dave' voted against IDS in 2003 and probably sent in a letter of no confidence. He is a backstabber too.

The public sense Blair's time is up; they don't want him to remain. Just because Brown is hastening his departure it doesn't take away his political skills or achievements. You overestimate Dave, and underestimate Gordon.

If we had a real conservative as leader (Davis, Fox, Howard, Lilley, Redwood....) then we would be 15 points ahead in the polls.

[steppenwolff]

Yet another positive poll thread hijacked by bickering between "pro" and "anti" Cameron people. Why can't you just be happy that yet another poll puts us at 40%? Why not leave in the past the divisions and in-perty bickering that nearly destroyed us post-Thatcher?

[Andrew]

"If we had a real conservative as leader (Davis, Fox, Howard, Lilley, Redwood....) then we would be 15 points ahead in the polls"

I seem to recall being 8 points behind under Howard a year ago, despite the focus on Iraq being even greater than it is now.

[David Belchamber]

A Telegraph Leader on Thursday complimented IDS for having produced a report on marriage that it described as "a model of most conservative positions: the empirical evidence turns out to back up what has always been the common-sense view".

If the majority of policies emanating from the review groups are based on the same fundamental principle, we can be confident that DC's leadership in the country will be backed up by principled and thought-out policies, which will make a very refreshing change to what we have had to put up with over the last 9 years.
That should take us well above 40% in the polls.

[John]

The truth is that the British political system can't cope with a PM winning a third term. There is something almost un-natural about it! Mrs Thatcher did it, her party turned on her, TB has done it ditto. The difference between the two is that Mrs Thatcher was still popular with the party membership, it was the MP's that wanted her out. Blair has reached the end of the line with the party in parliament and the country.
The amazing thing is that Labour has a poll rating of 32%. The Conservatives in a similar position under Major slumped to 24% in some polls. I know this is a half empty/half full argument, but I would be worried that the government in its third term, with all its problems still commands 32%. With a general election three years away, its still an open book, nothing has been decided!

[Denis Cooper]

Some talk of Alexander, and some of Hercules
Of Hector and Lysander, and such great names as these.
But of all the world's great heroes, there's none that can compare.
With a tow, row, row, row, row, row, to ... David Cameron?

[Oberon Houston]

There was something in what Blair said the other day that seemed strange.

"We cannot treat the public as irrelevant by-standers in something as important as who is their Prime Minister."

Was this a threat to Brown to call an Election on the issue?

[Chris]

The amazing thing is that Labour has a poll rating of 32%. The Conservatives in a similar position under Major slumped to 24% in some polls. I know this is a half empty/half full argument, but I would be worried that the government in its third term, with all its problems still commands 32%. With a general election three years away, its still an open book, nothing has been decided!
I'm thinking that it's largely due to how Labour has a reasonably solid core vote which will always vote Labour, come what may, in comparison our core vote is far smaller. Let us not forget in 1997 when we got "thrashed" we only polled 2 points less than Labour are polling now, and the Lib Dems were a minute force.

The position we are in currently is brilliant when compared to last years election. It's just a shame that Labour can get a healthy majority with just 35% of the vote whilst we have to be breaching 40% before even contemplating the slimmest of majorities.

If we had a real conservative as leader (Davis, Fox, Howard, Lilley, Redwood....) then we would be 15 points ahead in the polls.
Ah the joys of completely unfounded statistics. Have you been taking lessons from the Liberal Democrat economics team?

[christina speight]

Andrew -
"I seem to recall being 8 points behind under Howard a year ago"

Yes and Labour wasn't tearing itself to pieces. AND Labour IMPROVED its share in the YouGov poll despite the turmoil. Wake up! Cameron's done nothing - Blair's done it all for him. What does Cameron believe in? Do tell me somebody, please!

[Jon Gale]

A) Wait for the policy review groups and the actual policies to be announced before we scream and panic and stab DC in the back.

B) Read Built to Last - the new version has many more specifics than the original.

C) Realise that the Nasty Party image is holding us back and we need to erase that before anyone will give us a chance.

D) Remember that "Sharing the proceeds of growth between public services and tax cuts" involves tax cuts. It also explains the statement for a "comittment public services".

E) Look at this poll of how the public perceive Right-Left positions:

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2006/02/left_and_right.html#comments

D) Revel in Labour's collapse.

[Jon Gale]

F)

[Jack Stone]

If Lilly or Redwood were leader we would be about twenty points behind in the polls and if Davis or Fox were about half that.
No one in the parlimentary party would do as good a job for the party as David Cameron is doing. He as made the party electable again and its about time we recognised that and stopped this madness of all this silly childish moaning and carping about him.
We as Conservatives should have a spring in our step, a smile on our face and be working hard for victory.

[James Maskell]

A, the policy reviews dont report till after the next round of local elections. Camerons been in charge 9 months now and we should have the foundations of a policy platform.

b, Havent got a ballot but have read it, its not good enough.

C, Who says we are the Nasty Party?

D, Given what policy announcements have already announced, I have no faith that Cameron genuinely means that tax cuts will happen. I suspect its another red herring to keep the right wing onside.

E, That poll was done way back in February... I doubt the poll findings are the same today.

F, Happy to do so! There are concerns about what will replace Labour eventually, thats what many of us are worried about.

[NigelC]

I with Jon Gale and Jack Stone on this one; especially A)

[Oberon Houston]

This happens every time we get good news, abuse is hurled at Cameron. What a bunch, honestly.

[Ted]

Christina

Firstly there have been a few troll visits lately. Identifiable by the stirring and inconsistency of their comments.
Secondly the huge poll leads you keep referring to were polls that showed Conservatives below or just above 20% and LibDems in low teens. These figures were not reflected in elections (local or general). Polling organisations have worked hard to try to overcome the volatility and improve the confidence in their polling - Mori remains volatile.

The interesting bit is to compare a tired Conservative Government after its 4th poll victory with the Labour Party after its third. Using Guardian ICM (recognised as a good one as it hasn't changed much) in September 1993 (same time since previous election, after ERM etc.) C 29%, L 40%, LDs 26%. Compare that to this months ICM, C 40%, Labour 31, LDs 22%.

Cameron has done a great job re-positioning us. Now he needs to pull off the trick Blair & Brown managed of really hitting the Government with its record of incompetence and exposing its divisions. Add to that compelling policies, well thought through out of the policy groups (a big if on leaks so far but I think that the kite flying will help bring these back to reality) and I don't doubt we will see leads in excess of 10%.

[Denis Cooper]

If the Cameron fan club piped down, they wouldn't provoke such a reaction. The more they try to set him up on a pedestal to be worshipped as a young god, the more the unruly mob will be tempted to throw rotten tomatoes at him. Obvious.

[G Wild]

But he is a young god.

[Jon Gale]

James,

We seemed to do OK in the latest round of local elections.

[Yet Another Anon]

The Conservatives in a similar position under Major slumped to 24% in some polls. I know this is a half empty/half full argument, but I would be worried that the government in its third term, with all its problems still commands 32%.
In Autumn 1998 the Conservative Party was actually doing considerably better than in 1987, Labour were only doing marginally better, the same was true in 1960, in 1972 and 1980 Labour supposedly had huge leads and yet slipped back considerably only winning in 1974 because of how badly the Conservatives did, after 1980 Labour's position went badly wrong, in the mid 1970's Labour was hugely unpopular and yet if there had been a 1978 General Election almost certainly Labour would have increased it's vote and increased it's majority.

[Oberon Houston]

Half heard his "British" speech this lunchtime. Very dull, he didn't have anything to say, just rolled out some meaningless statistics and rolled out a bland assessment of the merits of the Union.

I've got to say, his attempts to look like 'Prime Minister' material are pretty clumsy, I’m a 'British' fan, I’m 'Tough on Terror', Lets talk about Foreign Policy - its just sound bites and more spin, he must think the Public are very stupid if that’s his idea of paving the way to power.

One thing that did irritate me very much was the suggestion that our position on the West Lothian Question made us less British. What a cheek, after all it was his Devolution plan that has led to this - a sneaky ploy to retain power north of the border even after Labour defeat at Westminster which is now back-firing badly.

I really try to remain objective about criticism of Brown, but he really does have a malicious streak in him that worries me.

[EML]

Nice statistics, Ted.

The earliest Gordon Brown, or whoever is leader of the Labour party, could plausibly hold an election is 16 months away (it is inconceivable, surely, that a GE could be called next summer?).

This leaves plenty of time. I am sensing that Phase One, rebranding/decontamination, is nearing completion. I suppose Phase Two is something along the lines of padding out the message about GWB and fraternity. The broad outlines have been drawn by Cameron's speeches and that interesting article by Danny Kruger (which I haven't read fully, I admit).

[christina speight]

The only person who called us the "Nasty Party" was a Cameroon - Theresa May then Chairwoman.

Jack Stone asks us to wait and trust Cameron - WHAT? After his EPP broken promise? Built to Last is platitudinous and where specific not inspiring - neo-Blairism.

and "Revel in Labour's collapse " ??? They went UP in the latest poll at a time of apparent disaster. And when they've got a new leader they'll probably pull back the miniscule Tory lead.

Only a fool like Cameron could have alienated so many Tories without convincing many Labour. NOTE: The polls do NOT show the Don't Knows though they suggest only 49% certain to vote

[Wallenstein]

Too true Christina.

I can see Cameron splitting this party long before the next general election.

[christina speight]

Just seen- - - -

***
Spectator 9th September

Diary of a Notting Hill Nobody
Tamzin Lightwater

Monday
Oh dear. Mr Letwin has locked himself in the safe room and won’t come out. - - - - - - - - -

Tuesday
Totally disgraced myself at morning meeting. Asked why everyone getting so upset about Tony Blair being on the ropes; surely this is what we want, etc. Jed exploded. ‘Because, you silly girl (harassment grounds
surely?), if Blair is going in May, Gordon is arriving in May. And you know what that means don’t you?’ Er... ‘We are going to win the next election. So we better have some firm policies, yes? We need concrete
proposals. Actual ideas. Now!’ Then we all launched into most frenzied session of brainstorming have ever known. Was really exciting.
Conclusion: Dave needs to erect solar panels on his constituency home as a matter of urgency; new haircut an absolute priority (something edgy, Colin Farrell?); more glacier moments essential; visit to
birthplace of Martin Luther King? Mr Letwin finally emerged with strange look on his face and started wandering about making a nuisance of himself. He sidled up to my desk, leaned v. close to me and said in
a conspiratorial whisper: ‘I know everything.’ Noticed he was not
wearing shoes. This cannot be good

[Oberon Houston]

Christina, I admire the energy you dedicate to critisising Cameron, and its healthy to have people challenging the direction Cameron is taking, but for heavens sake you need to be reasonable - to assert that we are imploding underhis leadership midst steadily and markedly improving poll results is - err very strange. Take a deep breath and try to think of three things you could like about the guy, that might moderate your posts to something that folks can relate to. Who knows, I'm waiting aprehensively for your reply (please down explode).

eek.

[Oberon Houston]

HURRAH! The amature dramatic society are back in town....

"I think Cameron is an idiot"

"I'm a true Tory, not like Cameron, who is, err, a troglodite"

"Real Conservatives like me hate Cameron, and he is ruining the party all for the ridiculous reason that we need to be 'electable', what a loooser! - I'm off to UKIP so there; at least they are a principled unelectable bunch of damm your eye don't care if nobody is listening ideologues - ahh home sweet home."

[Richard Willis]

Oberon - Christina has become a caricature of herself. Her over the top postings of how Cameron is dooming the party are so laughable as to best be ignored.

Every poll that shows a higher Tory rating seems to get her goat even more.

"EPP betrayal" - WHO CARES? The voters certainly dont. We will be out of the EPP-ED group in 2009 and good riddance but it is hardly a cause celebre to keep the voters awake at night!

[Jack Stone]

Christine. Firtly it won`t be Cameron and his supporters who split the party. If anyone splits the party it will be silly, euro fanatics like yourself who talk about the EPP as if its somthing the whole country is talking about it. As an issue it doesn`t even register with ordinary voters.
After ten years out of power now is the first time where we have a good chance of winning and getting back into power.It would be a great tragedy for the party and our country if our chances were ruined by silly, idiotic extremists like yourself who`s hearts are more with the nuters in UKIP than they are with us in the Conservative Party.

[James Maskell]

Guys...and gals, please calm it down. By all means lets argue about it like reasonable adults but the country's media is watching, and so is the Editor...

[malcolm]

I think Oberon, asking Christina Speight to be reasonable about DC is like asking me to cheer on the sweaties against England at Murrayfield. It ain't going to happen.
Remember politics is the art of the possible.

[a-tracy]

Richard do you honesty believe that Christina is in such a small minority that she can be ignored?

What are you all going to prescribe next that CH bloggers don't engage with her, ignore her posts and take your ball away. I think that's silly, there are plenty of people I talk to that hold views similar to Christine and these people will need answers if you want them to go out and vote for you.

[Sean Fear]

I think Christina goes over the top, but it would be a huge mistake to believe that there are not grave reservations about what David Cameron is doing among Conservative members.

[Richard Willis]

a-tracy - i do think that Christina is in a minority with her obsession about "EPP Betrayal" and her overwhelming hatred of all things Cameron. Debating with her is pointless and it would be better that this site did not become a forum to answer Christina Speight's latest outpouring every day!

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Comical Christina is the anti-Cameron brigade's version of Jack, and she's probably as much of an embarrassment to them as she is tiresome to the rest of us, incapable as she is of posting anything new or original to make a change from the usual bilious Hefferesque rants.

At least the likes of the lesser-spotted James Hellyer and John Hustings are able to present that side of the argument with logic and reason, rather than spouting the same 'I hate Cameron, we're all doomed, so there' nonsense over and over again, although the fact they haven't posted here much recently could possibly be taken as another indicator of how well David Cameron is doing as leader.

[a-tracy]

I can't speak for her but I feel that Christina is becoming very frustrated, unlike unhappy Labour supporters that have always had the Lib Dems to fall back on, her section of conservative voters (which I believe is larger than many of you think) really don't have an alternative and some of the bloggers on this site let readers know that in no uncertain terms.

[a-tracy]

"although the fact they haven't posted here much recently could possibly be taken as another indicator of how well David Cameron is doing as leader."

Daniel I hope James and John read that and reply, I miss their contributions to debates and I believe they give the pro-Cameron project a way to test out their assertions to a sceptical but conservative audience.

[James Maskell]

Im sure they are both busy doing other things. Normal play will resume shortly. I know the break has happened before with James Hellyer.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

On that note, can I say it's a pleasure to see you back Tracy?

[a-tracy]

Thank you Daniel, I wanted to sharpen my wits again!

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

ITV News has just featured a report from the key marginal of Stevenage. Members of the public being interviewed were lukewarm towards to David Cameron but were laying into Gordon Brown mercilessly.

[Monday Clubber]

It's a brave woman (or man) who sets about Cameron while he's enjoying the first period of relative popularity the Tories have enjoyed for years.

Personally I prefer to keep my powder dry. Cameron has a number of good qualities, although I'm not 100% sure that Conservativism us one of them.

But if Cameron can attract this level of Tory opprobrium when he's doing well, just wait and see who comes out of the woodwork when the pendulum swings back the other way.

[David Walker]

I do not hold contempt for DC over the EPP fiasco. Europe is not an issue that I get upset over. My arguements are based on the actual interpretation of Conservatism, that is how freedom and responsibility are natural to the human race.

Gordon Brown has raised tax; he has got away with this because of the lack of a recession. The Conservative party has consistently opposed the tax rises but now we are making sounds about how we will not cut them at all.

Public Services are essential to the health and welfare of the public; however we need small public services that provide a clearly defined task at a minimum cost; we do not need to keep inflating them because of peripheral failures.

However I will admit the 2 areas about the current party 'policy' that vex me are the Priority List and recent comments about Globalisation.

I am not a "troll". I AM a Conservative but I do not think we are going in the right direction, I will never be so tribal as to rubber stamp everything a Tory leader does in order to appear united.

Let us debate the issues, not name call. Name calling and dragon slaying is part of the reason Maude, May and Cameron are in trouble with plenty of the grassroots.

[Monday Clubber]

Perhaps we could have a working definition of "Troll".

From what I can see it encompasses every poster who does not agree that - in the words of one of the Cameroons - that Dave is a Demigod.

[tapestry]

Murdoch is operating in support of Gordon Brown, and against David Cameron. Cameron's success is clearly worrying someone, and that someone has coralled Murdoch into action to stop Cameron, and back Brown.

Blair will try to slide in a contender against Brown, but whoever it is will have Murdoch up against them. The BBC are playing a more open game trying to expose a weak flank, but fear will probably push them into line with Brown before long.

Cameron will have a much tougher time with the media from now on. It's the price of success. The anti-EU bloggers like Christina should realise that the power games are far more subtle than they appear. Cameron will need a lot more support from within his own ranks if he is to survive a Murdoch onslaught as the push to establish Brown as a longterm Prime Minister takes hold.

[John]

Well you looks at your poll and makes your choice. Ted chose an ICM poll to make a comparison, fine so will I. Nov 1994 Con 31 (fine) Lab 49 or perhaps we could try ICM March 1995 Con 27% Lab 52%. You could go through the entire ICM archive for those years and find something to fit your argument. The truth is that the Conservatives are doing better than they were, well by now they should be, but they are not doing well enough to guarantee victory. When they see poll readings similar to above, they can start putting the champagne on ice.

[Ted]

John
I specifically looked at like for like - September 06 v September 93 and made point that Labour then really started opposing and revealing the incompetence of Major's government. We didn't get much in way of policies other than Clause 4 and Tony being a y'know good guy. If DC & co fail to exploit the next few months then while I think Labour could well lose their majority we will probably not be the largest party.

IMHO for quite some time after an election people still keep faith with who they voted for - even after ERM fiasco (or in my eyes the ERM blessed release) it was quite some time before the Conservatives were really hurt in the polls. Better and immediate action within days of the exit could well have stopped the rot - the flailing around for months exposed the weaknesses.

It looks like Cameron & co are now presented with the same opportunity. An ex-Home Sectretary saying the main contender is fearful and not up to the job, the PM hounded by his backbenchers, all the pieces are there Dave - get to it.

p.s. welcome back a-Tracy

[Chris Palmer]

How predicable this thread has become - though it was punctuated by a couple of humerous comments (Daniel Vince-Archer in particular!)

While some people are clearly not happy with everything David Cameron and the Conservatives have been doing so far, I would say this; whatever he did, he would have upset someone. He can't be all things to all men (Blair tried that and failed.)

I must admit some of the latest decisions have not been particularly amusing or agreeable - for example the A-List in general and Rehman Chishti getting onto it so easily. However, the majority of the Conservatives' policies are yet to come, with the earliest policy groups supposedly reporting back this Autumn.

I would say, as I have said on this website before, that is worth waiting until the policy groups have announced their findings and suggestions and see what David Cameron does and adopts. Despite what people (a-tracy, Christina) have said above, the mood within the Conservative grassroots is mainly of satifsfaction with Mr Cameron. Of course there are some misgivings but no major concerns with the party as a whole.

[James Edwards]

I want to like DC, but we're living in a new and dangerous world post 9/11, and we need leaders who can make tough choices and go against the ideological vested interests. All of DC's outpourings seem patronising and fluffy - or even wholly misguided, suh as his recent remarks about wanting to decrease links with Europe and the US in order to increase them with Asia (read increased outsourcing and undercutting of British businesses, and even more immigration). If that's consevatism, include me out.

[christina speight]

I see the Cameroons are out in force belittling the EPP betrayal. The fact that it doesn't register with the voters is irrelevant. The fact is it proves that CAMERON CANNOT BE TRUSTED. Isn't that enough to make you unprincipled bunch quake - that your leader, whom you adore, is untrustworthy. Shame on the lot of you.

Nobody has risen to my earlier challenge of - Tell me one thing that Cameron believes in. If I get an answer to that I will try and answer Oberon's challenge to find 3 things I like about the guy - so far I cannot think of ONE. Anybody who gets elected on a LIE and betrays a promise and has never done a day's honest work in his life doesn't rate at all with me. And he's NOT been successful either. Blair has handed a temporary lead in the polls to him.

Do the rest of you like such an empty dishonest vessel?

[christina speight]

Chris Palmer "the mood within the Conservative grassroots is mainly of satisfaction with Mr Cameron."

If that were so why have subs / donations dried up; why are branch officers resigning (I have given chapter and verse here) and why did half the Tory vote sit on its hands in Bromley?

And What does Cameron actually believe in? I keep asking and nobody tells me - because nobody knows.

[Jack Stone]

Christian one thing I think David does believe in and that is is not handing yet another election victory to the Labour Party which you and your like would do if they were running the party!

[Wallenstein]

The memsahib still belongs to the poor old Tory mob and I get reports from time to time. Mostly doom and gloom and a huge local row over some naughty councillor caught flashing in a toilet.

Sounds like business as usual.

I have no idea whether or not they like Cameron, but either way they seem to be going nowhere fast.

Difficult to believe it's much different anywhere else.

[Tony Barton]

James Edwards says he wants to like Cameron. Well I certainly don't like the man. He sold us out on the EPP and I don't want to like him either. He is no Tory.

He has the manner of a dodgy second-hand car salesman.

Cameron is a Socialist and a Liar. The sooner he goes the better.

[Cardinal Pirelli]

Excellent polls, labour blowing up, what could be better?

As for the anti-Cameron brigade, I ignore them. Why don't they just go back to UKIP where they belong with all the other 'fruitcakes'?

[a-tracy]

Chris P "Despite what people (a-tracy, Christina) have said above, the mood within the Conservative grassroots is mainly of satifsfaction with Mr Cameron"

I want to make it clear that I don't know what the people's views from within the party grassroots are, other than ConHome's satisfaction ratings.

When I said "there are plenty of people I talk to that hold views similar to Christine" I was referring to my colleagues, friends and extended family.

In previous elections we've always been led to believe that in order to win back a majority sufficient to govern effectively that we need to convince the swing voters in key constituencies, these people aren't necessarily Tories.

The Conservative Party existed before Cameron arrived and will exist after he leaves, to me the party isn't just about the one man - don't you think that's where Labour went wrong?

The thing with Brown is that you may not like him but you know what he stands for and what you're going to get.

[Martin Cole]

Perhaps I am a Troll, surely so if that is one who wishes a return to those principles for which Conservatives once stood. Therefore my thoughts:

Michael Howard, who many longstanding Conservatives such as Christina Speight, greatly admired, appointed George Osborne Shadow Chancellor and thereby paved the way for the election of David Cameron which he only achieved based on a clear lie, namely withdrawal from the EPP, which his more honest but therefore defeated opponents knew was a practical impossibility.

Cameron consciously opted for that dishonest strategy in order to outflank Fox and Davis on EU Scepticism. He must have known withdrawal was an impossibility and therefore relied on the scruples of his opponents to gain victory for himself. All very fine if that is what the party now feels it wants in a Leader.

I have argued with Christina Speight on the subject of the EPP over many months on comment threads such as this and can confirm that she knows the real facts - as do both William Hague and Roger Helmer MEP.

David Cameron deliberately misled his party membership (electorate) over EPP withdrawal and must be, therefore, in most honest people's view, unfit to lead any main opposition party.

If the Tories keep David Cameron as leader they deserve what they will almost surely get, namely something less than a hung parliament at the next election.

[James Maskell]

Wallenstein, Im not a Councillor and they cant prove anything! It was under duress! :)

[christina speight]

Jack Stone again "one thing I think David does believe in and that is is not handing yet another election victory to the Labour Party"

Quite ! That's all he does believe in - winning another election by breaking his promises. According to Jack S: he doesn't want to win to DO something for Britain but just winning for its own sake. Pretty cheap I'd say.

BTW Martin Cole - I didn't "Greatly admire" Michael Howard but I thought him sufficiently good to support and the best around. HE was no Blair-clone!!

[Ted]

a-Tracy

Welcome back but the thing about Brown is you don't know what he stands for or what you will get. I can think of no front line poitician that has revealed less of what he would really do than Gordon.
He has rarely ventured out of his annual set pieces - Budget, Lord Mayors Dinner, IMF. OK we know he's big on aid to Africa, apprently has been a secret England Soccer fan, wakes up to the Arctic Monkeys and is BRITISH. Iraq? Global Warming? Palestine? the EU Consitution? Localism? More or less private investment in SkoolsnHospitals?
Today he revealed he's pro 90 day detention, ID cards and other Blair authoritarianism, tha's not what was rumoured (Gordon will kill ID cards etc.)

[Graham D'Amiral]

The yougov poll shows that the Conservative party is enjoying its best poll ratings for many years, partly that is down to to the terrible state of the Labour government, but it also shows that frankly people like David Cameron and are attracted to voting conservative under his leadership.

None of this means we are certain to win the next election, things in politics can change rapidly and much work remains to be done. But there is a real sense in which politics has changed in the last few months, the political pendulum is showing signs of swinging and we must make the full use of that opportunity.

[tapestry]

Gordon Brown's history. He's over. It was all an illusion. When Blair goes, so will Gordon. Make way for the new era.

[Chris]

Anyone climing that Cameron was elected leader purely because of the EPP promise is clearly either mad or severely intoxicated (Which I myself am at present!). Cameron was elected on his change agenda, he might have mentioned the EPP pledge but it was not what won him the election. Labour won in 1997 promising to implement PR, Blair has clearly reneged on that promise, yet no one claims that he only won in 1997 due to it.

I like many was dissapointed that withdrawa from the EPP wasn't immediate, but I only wanted it if we could do it in an organised and diginified manner. Yes, we could have left the EPP immediately after DC became leader and become independents, but our MEPs would have been useless due to lack of funding and lack of influence. Politics is all about compromise, DC simply realised that immeidiate withdrawal was impractical, and that remaining in the EPP wren't viable options, and so chpse to take the middle road where we withdrew fom the EPP following the next euro elections.

Once again, many apologies for any mispellings or gramtical errors brought about by alcohol

[Ian Olive]

Brown has to go down. He's too intrinsically dangerous to have in No 10. He would metamorphose into a total meglamaniac if he ever made it next door. Blair should sack him now, remove the source of all the plotting and intrigue and get on with his life. I am no supportyer of Blair, but he's there and he ain't going anywhere soon. Certainly not whilst there's the slightest chance of the raving lunatic next door becoming leader of the Labour Party and thereby PM.

I'm glad I live in France...

[Casual Observer]

Brown is toast.

[Wallenstein]

>>Anyone climing that Cameron was elected leader purely because of the EPP promise is clearly either mad or severely intoxicated<<

Strange that Chris, because its the only promise he ever made and he's broken it.

Like I said, a dodgy car dealer who can't be trusted.

I let my party membership run out after Cameron came in. I'll rejoin the day he leaves - probably in tears.

Pip Pip.

[a-tracy]

Thanks Ted, just to clarify my comment about Brown is that we feel that we know we're going to get taxed, burdened with more red tape, and over-regulated. He says he empathises with Business people and the middle classes but we know he doesn't because his roots are with the traditional labour, we have no illusions as to what lies behind the fake smile.

I also don't believe Brown will automatically get the labour leadership I can feel the knives coming out for him now - on pensions and the like on tv last night - I would suggest to Brown that he looks over his shoulder as DD never saw DC coming!

From my perspective I prefer people to do what they say they're going to do before you elect them, than elect people who can't say what they're going to do. Some of the people on this blog are very confident we are going to be told what we'll get with a DC government closer to the time which is great. Only time will tell. His priorities at the moment aren't mine but I'm prepared to wait and see.

[Yet Another Anon]

but they are not doing well enough to guarantee victory
Oppositions can never guarantee victory, even in the days prior to the polls opening in May 1997 it was conceivable that Labour would have faltered and ended up failing to win a majority because people are much more jittery about Opposition parties and very capable of deciding that they doubt that replacing the government would put anything better in place and in the event that people think that things will probably be no better they are likely to go with the Status Quo, in addition the government controls the legislative agenda and can timetable releases of news and leave the best bits until before the General election and effectively the Prime Minister decides when the next General Election is although the monarch has the power to hold an election at any time they chose.

[tapestry]

It was Hague that bollocksed up the EPP. Hague has shown himself incapable of taking on anything real in politics over and over. He's a weak force with nil power-broking ability.

Cameron is not ready to take on the Ken Clarke diehard Eurocompliant wing yet. Hague had his chance to move things forwards a step and as usual blew it. This has exposed the split on Europe once more, but Cameron is not ready to deal with it - especially while Labour need all the exposure we can give them.

Hague needs to go and write that Biography of William Wilberforce. It will be an excellent read, and it will get him out of the way. Hague is not the right guy. Cameron needs someone who can sort shit.

Taking on Ken Clarke, Channel 4, Rupert Murdoch, who are all dug in to protect Britain's armlock by the EU, will take Cameron time. Brown is Murdoch's horse for the new Labour crown, followed by Johnson as his next alternative. But what if it went to a non-Murdoch head for once?

Cameron has not received the Murdoch badge of approval becasue he is refusing to do Murdoch deals, as did IDS. If labour also look toward a post-Murdoch era, with say Charles Clarke as the new leader, power would flood back to Parliament, and rule by the media - started by John Major and continued by Blair will be over.

Charles Clarke at 66-1 looks a very good bet to me. And I'm £30 lighter on the strength of it.

[malcolm]

I think your bet on Charlers Clarke is as absolutely mad as most of your other conspiracy theories Henry.

[changetowin]

Another fantastic poll rating, a government falling apart and what do some people on this blog do? Attack our party leader! The right had its chance in 2001 and 2005 and flunked it. All those who want a Conservative government should back the Conservative party. And when you disagree then disagree in a reasoned and reasonable way. The way Christina and her ilk write about fellow Conservatives, using hateful language, won't get us anywhere.

[Ed]

The test for Cameron is whether he can hold these figures for another six months or so...in the hope that they become self-fullfilling.

I agree with the previous post...the sort of introspection that we have seen over the last week in the Labour party is not something we should try to emulate.

In any case your efforts are wasted in this petty criticism. The argument that we should return to the core vote approach is one for the intellectually destitute.

What worries me is that you seem quite numerous. But you lot tend to be more vocal than sensible Conservatives.

Cameron is only going to win the marginals that we need by appealing to a broader audience and to an extent that is what the Green agenda is about...making the Conservative party politically audible again.

Opposition is about conversion as much as it is about consolidation. If you don't get it, then by all means give your vote away to some lunatic party on the fringe of normal discourse.

If on the other hand you want a centre right alternative, then you'll do the decent thing a support our most successful leader in nearly a generation.

Another encouraging result.

[James Edwards]

Ed says "If on the other hand you want a centre right alternative, then you'll do the decent thing a support our most successful leader in nearly a generation". The problem with the present party hierarchy is that it isn't centre right. In all honesty, what is the difference between DC's worldview and that of Blair or Brown or whichever dittohead happens to be leading Labour come next election? As far as I can see, a Cameron prime ministership would differ only in degree from another Blair one. On a wide range of topics - the EU, immigration, crime, health, education, trade, politically correct threats to free speech and now even taxation - DC and TB are almost interchangeable. DC seems a nice bloke, but it's not enough.

[tapestry]

Who would you back, Malcolm? Brown's odds are a waste of time, and he won't make it anyway. Clarke should be 10-1 not 66-1. He's the only voice showing any clarity in the middle of Labour's shit-slinging contest. Nice to see you've not lost your touch as a bestower of compliments. I was getting worried!

[Wallenstein]

>>All those who want a Conservative government should back the Conservative party<<

Really?

The way my old party has been going lately under the stewardship of "Dave" I would suggest it's unlikely to produce anything remotely resembling a CONSERVATIVE government.

With Labour in its present shambles its not surprising they're lagging. If we had elected David Davis to be our leader we'd now be forging ahead.

[Jack Stone]

If we had elected David Davis we would still be on the core vote of thirty two per cent.
Davis and his right-wing cronies held the answers to the question of why we were defeated not how we are to win.

[Monday Clubber]

"Davis and his right-wing cronies held the answers to the question of why we were defeated"

To hold those answers should be something of an advantage, I would say, although one doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to know what those reasons were.

Incompetence, sleaze, sleaze, and yet more sleaze.

[malcolm]

If I wanted to bet Henry I'd probably put a pound or two on Alan Johnson.I certainly wouldn't bet on a man who in such a short period of time managed to alienate the electorate during his tenure at the Home Office and then pull off the remarkable feat of turning off both the Blairite and Brownite wings of the Labour party at almost the same time.Amazing that! Prescott has more chance of leading the Labour Party than Clarke in my opinion.

[Ed]

The right wing nutters that post ridiculous comments on this blog often have as their catch phrase, in response to why we lost the 1997 Election, 'Tony Bliar stole our clothes!'....To all you lot I would say that you seem reluctant to grab them back. Instead you would prefer to wander around naked in the political wilderness.

Get real.

In any case there's nothing you lot can do. The majority of us made up our minds back in December of last year. Mr Cameron is our leader. David Davis is not.

Back our man or back off.

[Wallenstein]

>>In any case there's nothing you lot can do. The majority of us made up our minds back in December of last year. Mr Cameron is our leader. David Davis is not.<<

Yeah right, Ed me old chum. That's the big problem with the party as I see it.

I'm not a member of any party at the moment so I'm not obliged to support the Boy Wonder. Actually, it's because of him that I let my membership lapse.

The day Cameron steps down I'll be sending in my usual cheque for £100. If Davis stands and becomes leader (as he should have done last time) I'll double it.

Pip! Pip!

[malcolm]

I think Wallenstein,the party will be happy to do without your £100. Pip pip!

[Richard Carey]

I'm not a member of any party at the moment so I'm not obliged to support the Boy Wonder. Actually, it's because of him that I let my membership lapse. The day Cameron steps down I'll be sending in my usual cheque for £100. If Davis stands and becomes leader (as he should have done last time) I'll double it.

The problem as I see it is with friends like that. "I didn't get what I voted for, so the rattle's going out of the pram." DC won. If you're not mature to accept a democratic result from, oh, last December, you probably weren't going to do us much good anyway.

And don't worry - the Party won't feel the pinch. I've already written your "double it" cheque to provide seed money for real grassroots campaigning in my local branch.

[Ed]

Quite right. The Party will attract more investment if these nutters go elsewhere. Comments like that act as a positive advertisement for the party, the views remain an obvious indictment against the state of the party pre-Cameron.

The more you complain the more it will become patently obvious to those swing voters in those marginal constituencies that the Tory Party is changing.

So keep going. That's your real value.