Tory lead down to 4%

For more see here.

Comments

[Jack Stone]

These changes are within the margin of error and so insgnificent they are not worth commenting about.

[James Maskell]

Jack loves it when the polls are showing 40% but when they are falling, he dismisses it off hand...cant guess why...

The problem is Jack, the trend is that the Tories are slowly falling and Labour are rising.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

This result AFTER the LibDim conference and before the Labour conference - When will Tories wake up Vapid CommieRon's weak, insipid pandering WILL lose the next election.
If there was a snap election last week Labour would have won with less voters and a higher percentage.
Time for a Learer who didn't have to lie to get the job - a leader who starts to tell the truth and inform the public that they have no say over crime, borders, NHS, defence, industry, commerce, education until we GET BRITAIN BACK.
To win tell the truth and reclaim the 5,000,000 who want to vote Tory but like me won't with no leadership, Vapid CommieRon and lies.
Please wake up and smell the coffee. Please don't follow the Whiggs into insipid oblivion.
Regards,
Greg L-W.

[Richard]

Yougov polls tend to be very accurate which is why this ought to be of some concern. That said this is more to do with Labour (somehow) regaining popularity than the Tories losing popularity.

[Matthew Sinclair]

I think we're paying the price for the long period of policy formation with the commissions. Back before the local elections I thought that the lack of policy might be a short term pain in this regard.

My guess is that the slight downturn in the polls is a result of this. However, it is a price well worth paying for taking some serious time doing some thinking about the direction of conservative policy. So long as the polls remain healthy enough that Cameron remains secure in his position and a media poster boy (the Independent's output suggests that is not in danger) it'll cause little lasting damage.

[Matthew Sinclair]

Another possibility is that it is a result of popular sympathy for Blair (they think he's being ill treated) denting their hatred of him. This is particularly useful for the Tories as it will screw up the Brown honeymoon.

[James Maskell]

Interesting Express front page article. Cameron hasnt put this proposal forward as we all know. If anything, he doesnt want it. Its articles which make it seem the promise is Camerons which will hurt us dearly. The truth being that its his Commissions which are proposing this and that Cameron would rather not say seeing as we prefer stability before tax cuts...

[Andrew]

Might be the media focus on Labour's internal troubles is not harming them in the short-term, but other polling evidence suggests it's creating a lot of harm (eg creating divided party image). When the campaigns start, all that personal bitterness that's been building up for a decade will come out, and I suspect negative perceptions now being fed into the public mind will result in a polling hit.

Essentially: any publicity is good publicity. The focus is on Labour now, concentrating their supporters' minds. Cameron's gamble is that keeping a low profile will keep the leadership feeding frenzy going as long as possible, and ultimately poison the succession.

[Anonymous]

You should check out this new blog below.

www.disillusionedandbored.blogspot.com

[christina speight]

Day by day and despite every possible advantage the Tory lead slips further. "So long as the polls remain healthy enough" (Andrew)- - - But they're not healthy. This is a clear majority for Labour figure!!!

Please wake up you Cameroons. The ineffectual leader is handing a 4th victory for Labour to them on a plate.

[Jack Stone]

Polls will go up and polls will go down.The main thing is that we are in the lead and we have the most popular leader of any of the parties. This is a firm foundation for victory.
As for others on the thread they thought we were dong badly when we were at forty per cent so I am not surpried by there comments. There are some here who would be calling for David`s head if we were on eighty per cent. They have there own agenda. An agenda that s lead to defeat in the last two elections.

[sbjme19]

Exactly Jack I agree. Like... we were always so far ahead with the other leaders!

[John]

With possibly three years to go to the GE, commenting on polls is a little bit pointless, but of course that won't stop us.
What the yougov poll shows is what I've always suspected, the Labour vote is very strong, it is not showing the sort of collapse that it did back in 1983, or the Conservatives did in 1997. The Libdems too are holding their vote in the high teens or low twenties, enough if it came to it, to prevent either party having a majority.
For the Conservatives this is dissappointing, (despite what Jack thinks) Cameron in particular is getting a 'good press' the liberal papers, (Guardian, Independent) being particularly supportive, perhaps that's putting off some Conservative core voters, those core voters perhaps 2/3% may be going to UKIP, its difficult to say. Cameron has a difficult balancing act to perform, keep the centrists happy, keep the rightists on board.

[Andy P]

No recovery for the Lib Dems - excellent. Keep up the good work Ming you have our full support.

[James Maskell]

"There are some here who would be calling for David`s head if we were on eighty per cent".

Come on now, Jack, lets not over-react... If polls were showing 80% for the Tories, Im pretty sure there would be riots in Britain at the scale of Hungary, if not worse.

[Cllr Bruce Mackie]

There is a problem and that is with the Labour Gov in such a mess and the Lib Dems a shambles,we should be climbing in the polls but we are not! We have to take a good look at what we are about and stop apologising for our past successes and start promoting a different style from Blair.People in the real world are sick to the teeth of spin and potitical correctness and are crying out for a direction which recognises merit, We should put to bed this A List and once more adopt Conservative Values, in that Merit should be the only measurement which should apply in choosing Candidates and not looking at quotas.A little more of listening to those who have real experience at the sharp end of Politics would not go amiss. I am willing to help as a Tory Cllr for 41 years but there again the young ones don't really want to hear from us. What I do know,is that this is not the way.

[Richard]

"Like... we were always so far ahead with the other leaders!"

Actually if you look at the Yougov poll archives we were ahead by around 4% under both IDS and Howard during some periods.

Cameron seems to be more consistently ahead and by larger margins but it remains to see how long this will last.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

Hi,

Jack Stone opines:
>"There are some here who would be calling for David`s head if we were on eighty per cent."<

Sadly he seems not to realise it is called principle. Vapid CommieRon has said nothing since he lied about the EU to steal the leadership that has done anything to attract the 5,000,000 Tory voters who have abandoned the populist fashion led isiotic lack of leadership of the New Tory party with its pandering rather than policy leading.

If the price of 8 or 80% lead and gaining government is a continued sell out of ethics, values and principles then let us hope the 5,000,000 still care enough to criticise but one must realise just howmany Millions of qualified British citizens have emmigrated since we have been directly ruled by the EUropean soviet.

One is tempted to wonder at times if these United Kingdoms are worth saving - even the Tory leadership will prostitute values, integrity and principle for power!

It is sad to see the British peoples so betrayed for lack of leadership but it does explain the falling turnouts to vote and the 5,000,000 Tory voters that they are failing to attract back.

Regards,
Greg L-W.

[Yet Another Anon]

If anything it looks like the next 2 years will be quite bumpy for the government as you would expect in mid term especially in a third successive term and various opposition parties will claim credit for it and at the end labour will re-elected possibly with a slightly increased majority, but probably both main parties votes having recovered a lot and probably with some more Conservative MP's, probably enough of an advance for David Cameron to continue as leader - It's only 1.5 years into the parliament, in 1959-64 term at this stage the then Conservative government in late 1960 looked on course to be re-elected, in late 1967 equally Labour hadn't hit it's main unpopularity, in late 1971 there was no reason to suppose the Conservatives wouldn't win a 2nd term and in late 1975 if anything the government appeared to be over it's main difficulties, in late 1984 and late 1988 it looked rather as if the Conservatives could only increase their majority and would govern forever, I am somewhat sceptical about opinion polls especially probably over 2 years out from a General Election but at most all the figures show is Labour recovering to where it was just before the Local Elections still below where it was early this year, it has to be said that all 3 main parties are in something of a mess and have been for a long time.

[Cllr Bruce Mackie]

I would have thought that my reasonable point of view in my last post,would have at least elicited some more comment. I am becoming more than a little disillusioned by the sort of student politics emanating from CCHQ. The place must be populated by people who have never earned a living outside CCHQ since they left Uni.I suspect that lazy politicians are alowing them to promote these ideas.Take heed otherwise matters will get to the stage where they cannot be turned round,politics are not like that>

[Editor]

Greg L-W: There is something very childish about using expressions like Vapid CommieRon. If you can't contribute to a grown-up discussion please don't post here.

[Zhukov]

I don't even understand what Vapid CommieRon means.

I normally agree with Jack Stone but I am getting a little twitchy about the Cameron project.

Someone who was very enthusiatic about him only last month said to me "Cameron will do anything for a round of applause" which left me a little shaken. The upcoming Conference will be an excellent opportunity to give the Party a bit more bite, more direction.

A few policy commitments, not necessarily specific, that rattle a few cages other than the tory right could set things in train again - in short, substance.

[Ben Redsell]

I am really disappointed in today's YouGov poll, especially as it appears to back up the ICM poll from Friday. But then if you look at the news from the last week, there was very little from the Conservatives. Maybe CCHQ are keeping the powder dry for the Conference, but Labour and the Lib Dems have dominated the headlines. This will have affected our poll rating, because many of the people who are switchers are 'inclined' to say Tory because it's fashionable, but when we're out of the news there will always be a slight dip. Equally Labour have been in the news a lot, and have recovered well from their attempted coup.

I would like to say something positive about all this, but I don't think I can. The most positive aspect I can see is that we are still ahead, and once the policies start rolling out hopefully it will solidify.

Does anyone think it might be because we suddenly started arguing about tax cuts and the Spectator report on Forsyth's report and people started to think 'same old Tories' or is that hokum?

Christina, I'm not surprised you use this as an oust Cameron article. But if you think the way to increase our lead is have another leadership election you are a long way from the truth. Get out on the street, go to a council estate and talk to some voters. Not just some middle class housewives.

Cllr Mackie, I'm sorry to sound patronising, because I have the greatest respect for a fellow councillor, especially one of such long standing. However I am fed up of people saying 'that's not how we used to do it' No it's not. The world has moved on. In Ipswich they campaigned in the same way for 25 years against a Labour council. Then they changed and all of a sudden we have a Tory council. We don't go shopping how we used to, we don't find a wife like we used to, we don't work how we used to, we don't write letters how we used to, why should we decide how to vote how we used to? People have changed, the party needs to reflect that.

[Voice from the South West]

This poll is rather worrying. Let’s hope something is planned for conference; Blair always used to turn the screw in during the 90s, I suspect now is the time for us to do the same.

[John Coles]

I think that change must be in the air, Mr Redsell. I have spent the whole day not wearing a tie. Is there anything else I should be doing?

[Wallenstein]

"Cameron will do anything for a round of applause"

Too true, Zhukov.

That's why he thinks it's smart to keep trashing Maggie. It's a tactical error, because in the end even people who hated her are being turned off by this blatant show of disloyalty.

The "Tory lead" is falling off at a rate which will see LABOUR at 80% the way it is going!!! ;-)

And isn't it hilarious the way "the usual suspects" have been blasted into a state of shellshock by this poll?

Last week they were treating any measured analysis of Yougov results as a sin against the Holy Ghost

These changes are within the margin of error and so insgnificent they are not worth commenting about.- Jack Stone

So why have you then proceeded to comment on them, Jack?

I hate to say "I told you so", but...

[christina speight]

Ben Redsell - If you think that having been a very successful businesswoman (in a man's world) and a political editor and a member of the Party for umpteen years that my contacts are middle class housewives then you're soooo wrong!

I have a list of e-mail contacts from my editorial days of several hundred and their playback is largely what I report here.

To summarise Cameron can only win courtesy of Blair-Brown. If he does win and being far from a Conservative - as he admits - then not only will he wreck the party's immediate future but as Conservatives will nobody to vote for - they won't vote!

So change him and have a chance or keep him and wreck the party.

The salient thing about the polls is not the absolute lead but the DIRECTION they are all moving in.

[Umbongo]

As usual Christina Speight hits the nail on the head. And yes, polls taken at least 2 years before a general election may not be an accurate forecast of what might happen. However, against this government NOW, a 4% lead is a good indication that the Conservatives are doing something very wrong indeed.

Francis Maude - and lots of contributors to this thread - would say quicker and deeper "modernisation", more green politics, more arm-twisting of local parties to adopt "acceptable" candidates etc are what is needed. However, maybe just maybe, dumping the traditional "core" conservatives (along with their core beliefs) could have been a mistake. It's worth thinking about. It's painful I know but when the facts change (or, as in this case, the facts or polls - don't change) opinions should change. It would be hard, after all, for a Cameroon to admit that David Cameron is leading us all (Conservatives and the rest of the country) into an abyss of either a fourth outright Labour victory or a Labour-LibDem coalition - but that's what the polls are saying. Apart from one blip showing the Conservatives 10% ahead, the default lead is 4% and shrinking.

[Wallenstein]

As ever, Christina, you are right on the ball.

We need to adopt a policy of "wait and see". If Labour takes a lead and maintains it, we Tories will need a timetable for action.

There's plenty of time before the next election. Plenty of time to arrange a civilised and dignified handover of power to Davis or Fox.

It's not time to move yet. But it's suely time to start thinking about it.

[houndtang]

If the core vote is such an election winner, why did the party perform so dismally in 2001 and 2005 when it banged a right-wing drum relentlessly?

[Wallenstein]

Because people didn't trust the Tories to deliver any of those "right wing" policies, or anything else for that matter.

Research has shown that the public liked those policies but were turned off when they were told they were Tory policies.

[Umbongo]

houndtang

I would say that the Conservatives lost in 1997, 2001 and 2005 because no-one wanted to listen to anything we were saying. It's only now that people see what Labour has led us into (crap schools, crap NHS, crap "law and order", crap everything) that the electorate is open to a change. And what do they get? The three major parties all singing the same tune. Of course the Conservatives are not going to pull dramatically away from Labour in the polls if they are saying, basically, it will be "steady as we go" when Cameron enters Downing Street (as if!): and, guess what, they haven't pulled away.

Anyway, I'm afraid that the Maude nostrums and appeals to a spurious loyalty to Cameron are not an answer to a dismal performance in the polls. In the light of the only consistent and current facts I can go on - the polls - I'm suggesting a re-think.

[Jack Stone]

God some people on this thread make me laugh. If you think the party can survive as a serious political force if it changed leader this side of the general election you are completly off your head.
The party would become a complete laughing stock and would be out of power for decades. In fact the now fanciful hope of the Lib/Dems to become the second party would be more than wishful thinking it would be a realistic hope.
Also this rubbish about saying that David Cameron isn`t a Conservative because he stated he was a Liberal/Conservative. What the hell do you think Winston Churchill was!

[Cllr Bruce Mackie]

Your opinion of course Ben. But of course,I have been fighting against Labour,The Nats and Lib Dems for all these years and one thing does not change and that is the way people think when they hear of another lot of spin with no substance.We have all had enough of that sort of thing and get down to the basics of Tory Policy. I am the first to adopt new measures and stood down as a Constituency chairman to allow a younger breed take over but thankfully they are all Tories.

[malcolm]

A bit worrying this. We haven't treally seen any bounce in our voting share since Labour really started to fight with itself. I personally believe many shadow ministers are adopting too low a profile.Intentionally?
Our conference should I hope address this but it does seem that we cannot rely on Labour to throw the next election away even if some of their leading members appear to want to help us as much as they can!

[Afleitch]

A 'quick handover of power to Davis or Fox' Are you serious? If we had a 20 point lead the usual culprits would still moan. Some of us actually want the party to win the next general election and we can do that while the rest of you engage in plots and a collectivey hissy fit.

[Monday Clubber]

"Some of us actually want the party to win the next general election"

So do I Afleitch. The difference is that I want us to win with true Conservative policies, not poor counterfeits of what Blair is offering.

In our local last week a (Labour) friend described David Cameron's lead to me as a "dead cat bounce".

I fear he may be proved right.

[Editor]

Any talk of a change of Tory leader is silly nonsense. David Cameron will be the party's leader at the next election and my only hope is that he combines his welcome emphases on conservation and compassion with more attention to the issues of tax, crime and national security. We need a balanced ticket at the next election - both in terms of personnel and platform - and I'm still hopeful that we'll get that from David Cameron.

[christina speight]

Jack Stone asks :" What the hell do you think Winston Churchill was?"

I'll tell you because I fought for his reelection at Central Office (and once had a brief chat with him!) . He was above all else a believer in small government, in getting the state off people's backs, in low taxation, strong defences, and the defence of liberty and the importance of our country. ALL of those I agree with today. He was returned to office with the slogan - "Set the People Free"

And before anyone says he had been a Liberal, just take note of the fact that Liberals THEN were totally different animals from the Liberal-Democrats today 80 years later.

[christina speight]

Just received the latest Calculus: General Election Prediction up to polls to 20/9/06 - -

Con 275 seats; Lab 305 seats; LibDem 38 + Others 29.

[eugene]

I dislike Labour with a passion. I felt however that Blair had been badly mistreated and if I had any leaning towards them at all, I would have switched to Blair in the last two weeks- because it helps undermine his enemies within. This Labour bounce is a Blair bounce and he is history- this bounce may well be history too.

[Monday Clubber]

I think many of us "Right-wing Tories" might have been Liberals in the days when Winston was a Liberal, Christina.

Jack and his fellow-travellers would have been Socialists, and indeed very little has changed there.

"Set the People Free" is a slogan that can inspire us today. If only Cameron would grasp this opportunity.

No wonder the "Torch of Freedom" is to be extinguished.

[Mark Senior]

Christina , the rather more accurate Anthony Wells swingometer gives Con 266 Lab 302 LibDem 50 Others 32 on the same figures .

[Chad]

"I personally believe many shadow ministers are adopting too low a profile.Intentionally?"

I agree entirely Malcolm. There were a few noises initially from Liam Fox, but now a deafening silence.

I can obviously appreciate why Tim etc hope Cameron pulls it out of the bag, but we know he needed to fuse the trad with the modern from the very beginning and his failure to do so, set his path to failure,imho.

However, don't be too glum. Clearly a change of image was the essential first step and Cameron was the right choice to deliver that but kind of briefly hit equilibirum then kept heading left to create a different kind of imbalance.

It's wishful thinking to believe that Cameron can backtrack to a more balanced ticket now. He has set his direction and embraced the left-wing approach so fully, any backtracking will look like more flipflopping weakness and fail to retain the new floaters he has attracted or win over the trads that he so ignored previously.

But Tim is right, you've got Cameron until the general election and in a brief moment of party politics, that makes me very happy indeed! :-)

[sandbagger]

What might help would be a few street fighters on the candidates list.That is people who have already fought and been proved to have had the mettle for a political fight.

[cityunslicker]

What do these polls matter until Brown has been PM for a year?

The whole scene will be very different in a year and events will change things (mainly the outcome of the labour change of leadership and how dirty that is); not by conservatives policy ideas.

Change Cameron? This is simple madness, really worked when we changed IDS? I think not. Also going Right leads nowhere, please note the results of the last 3 GE's. Not just Tories either, Lib Dems have increased their vote often at our expense, this is hardly due to their hard right policies.

Just vote UKIP like you want to, you won't be missed in the 21st century.

[malcolm]

You never give up do you Chad? To suggest that Cameron has adopted 'a left-wing approach' is as I'm sure you're fully aware ludicrous,and I do believe he will give us a balanced ticket will ensure we win.
Not rally that interested in playing politics with you but as you started it I would say that I'm much much more confident that DC can attract many new voters to us in a way that Nigel Farage will not.Dear Nigel may attract the committed Eurosceptic who believes that the EU is by far the most issue facing the country but he will attract NO ONE ELSE.

[Voice from the South West]

I actually think that if these figures were repeated at a general election then we would end up as the largest party despite what the electoral predictors say. However I am equally confident that we would not win an overall majority either. If we were to win an overall majority at a GE then we would have to poll 40%+ to be sure.

[Andrew]

If you want to engage in predictions, the most accurate tool we have are the exchanges - predicting based on polling evidence this far ahead is rather pointless, because there are so many factors we just don't understand.

At the moment, betfair has the Tories 1.8 to have the most seats, Labour 2.26, LD 75.0 (LD genuine price obviously more, but that always happens with longshots on betfair due to the small bankrolls of those laying odds).

In other words, the market estimates a 55% chance we'll have the most seats in the next parliament, Labour 44%, LD <1%.

[Andrew]

Oh, and forgot to mention: that % is the highest it's been since Betfair was founded. It's dropped a lot since Cameron become leader, and only stagnated recently.

This far out, we'd probably need a 15%+ poll lead to see odds of 1.5 or so.

[Matt Wright]

I think we had to present a new image as people weren't listening to our messages. DC has attracted a new set of middle/swing voters. The plan should move into a new phase to map out our approach on the main issues poeople vote on ie health, law & order, education, economy. These should be used to begin to frame what we stand for in the 21st Century,

Matt

[Chad]

"To suggest that Cameron has adopted 'a left-wing approach' is as I'm sure you're fully aware ludicrous,"

Malcolm, would you deny that LibDems are left wing? Would you deny that Cameron has set a strategy to woo LibDems? CLUE: Think, um, LibDems4Cameron.com.

Cameron has been deliberately and clearly moving to the left.

"Dear Nigel may attract the committed Eurosceptic who believes that the EU is by far the most issue facing the country but he will attract NO ONE ELSE."
That's fine by me. You are supporting a war-voting, high-taxing, non-selection, pro-state funding leader.

You claim to oppose all of those things, but are happy to vote against your supposed principles. And you have a go at me??!!

[malcolm]

Chad, I'm supporting someone who can win and make this country a better place. I don't like the fact that Cameron voted for the Iraq war but I'll live with it because on balance I think a Britain under Cameron will be better and have a better foreign policy than it does now.
You on the other hand are wasting time following someone who whilst sincere leads a party of how can I put this kindly, not serious political people who I really really believe are utterly incapable of winning even one Parliamentary seat.
It's been said that politics without power is just a conversation.Playing politics with UKIP does with all respect seems to me to be a conversation and an utterly pointless one at that. Goodnight.

[Chad]

You're anti Iraq war, low tax, anti state funding, pro-grammar,etc,etc but you think someone who you admit is doing the exact opposite in those areas will make Britain better.

OK. So you have no real values, you just want the blues to win. That's clear enough and fair enough, but don't pretend to have any values.

[Fred Baker]

IDS got further ahead than this.

[Solon]

Right.

Long term, our relationship with the EU is the most important issue facing this country. We know that, the EU knows that, but Joe Public doesn't think it is, because he thinks about things such as how he is going to pay his council tax and when his mother is getting her hip fixed.

Christina et al - what we must do is finesse this issue. I want us out of Europe, but to make it the centrepiece of an election campaign would be madness. We would make it simplicity itself for our opponents, both in the other parties and in the media, to portray us (unfairly, of course) as obsessive nutters who hate foreigners.

I voted for Davis, and am genuinely in two minds about Cameron. On the one hand, I can see that the Party's "brand" needs to be rehabilitated, and can see how he is trying to go about that. On the other hand, he is giving altogether too much free reign to those on the left of the Party who see it as an opportunity to be revenged upon the Right. Most dangerous of all is the Big Lie circulating that we lost three elections because we were "too right-wing".

Nonsense. We lost in 1997 because the behaviour of the parliamentary party was so disgusting that people refused to vote for us. We lost in 2001 and 2005 simply because the economy was doing OK.

The state of the economy is the single most important factor in deciding British elections - if we are at or past the "point of pinch", at which Joe Public is feeling it in his paypacket, the Government is inevitably doomed.

[Odessa Calling]

I agree with Solon's analysis of the last three elections.

[Afleitch]

IDS did not 'get us further ahead than this' as even a casual glance of polling data would show. The fact that under Cameron we have held a poll lead since the end of April. 5 months in fact, the first time this has happened since the early 90's appears to be lost on people

[Goldie]

It's clear that everything but the Cameron Camp has his tactics are for winning the last war. Unless he -radically- changes, Labour will win a fourth term.

[Dr Seb]

So UKIP are now anti-Iraq war? Is this offiical UKIP policy as I can't recall a single statement from UKIP againt the war in Iraq? Or is this just yet another band wagon for Chad and UKIP to jump on?

[Ben Redsell]

I held a Councillor surgery on Saturday in the centre of Woodbridge. Woodbridge is a small town in Suffolk, popn 8000. It is a classic Conservative/Liberal Democrat town, and I currently have the pleasure of representing it for the Conservatives.

The surgery I held on Saturday was in the main shopping street, and I spoke to about 80 people. The main message was quite clear - that nationally people wanted to see David Cameron as PM. This after a week of Ming's conference and no headlines for us. I spoke to people who voted for Blair in 97, but were really Tory voters, and who will be coming back now. Interesting for me, because I had begun to wonder if this group of voters actually existed. They never seem to show up in polls!

I believe the YouGov figures, because like many others I think YouGov are amongst the best pollsters. I think this accurately reflects the way in which the lead still needs some policies to back it up with. But I must remind people before they get too worried about things that 18months ago we lost a General Election, and we are now into our fifth month of leading in the polls. The ConHome poll of polls gives us a 4.2% lead. Due to margin of error this could be as little as 1.2%, or as high as 7.2%. Indeed a well known Liberal Democrat Blogger, Mark Senior, regularly states that he believes the true figures to be around C37 L31 LD 19. This would of course be perfectly possible within the MoE.

Chrisitina, I apologise to you for accusing you of getting your views from Middle Class housewives, it is clear you haven't from your earlier post. However the list of your e-mail contacts is a self selecting group. Why not contact your local Conservative office and go out canvassing for a couple of hours. Meet the electorate, from all backgrounds and all classes. See what they say about Cameron. And if you do go out, remember to keep an open mind. You'll surprise yourself. You could even report back to us how you got on. And how many new Tories you found.

Then again, if your posts on here are anything to go by, you'd probably persuade them all to go somewhere else. My point, badly made, is that the real voters in the streets are supportive of Cameron, because they see him as a safe alternative to Labour. They aren't as nice about the Conservatives, but we are still gaining. Brown will be the true dead cat bounce, and if we aren't seeing these lead reductions reversed after conference I'll be very surprised...

[Given Up]

Face it for the main opposition party to be "only" 4 % up, against a gu'mint that has messed up so comprehensively as this one, is tearing itself apart internaly and to all intents and purposes is now leaderless, is outright failure.

What such a weak performance may well be saying is that, yes some voters are returning, but others are walking away. The ones who are returning are by definition fickle, as they left and they may well go again. The ones who are walking are the hard core and they are leaving because of the idiotic non policies and the deliberate tactic of enraging them. They will not come back under this leadership.

[Martyn]

There does seem to be a small but noticeable shift back to Labour despite everything. Brown isn't even in office yet but a few ideas have been emanating from his camp that seem to have begun taking back the agenda from Cameron. They also seem to be slightly more substantial than Dave's PR and presentation but little else.
Cameron is playing particularly badly according to local reports with northern Tories and swing voters. He's not trusted, there is something about him which jars with northern sensibilities even amongst politically sympathetic groups.

Brown v Cameron is going to be framed as it develops as being dour substance from a man you may not like but who is a safe pair of hands versus this untested PR man who appears to be willing to say whatever it takes to get elected. The idea that "Middle Britain" will not get Brown may well prove to be exaggerated. Much of his approach to politics is conservative with a small "c".

That both the Blairites and the Cameroons resort to personal attacks on his personality to try and harm him speaks volumes about their shared political perspective. It is vacuous, empty and lacking substance,more concerned with PR than real politics. If the public have decided they want a break from style over substance, Cameron and his toadies will be punished.

[matt wright]

I have to agree with Ben on this. I'm also a councillor and in addition doing extensive survey work prior to the Welsh Assembly elections. A lot of swing voters like Cameron and the response is generally good. However like Ben I also detect an emerging feeling that they would like to know more and hear more beef from DC about what we stand for in this new Conservative dawn,

Matt

[Andrew]

PB has a Yougov from Monday's Telegraph, Com38, Lab31, LD 18.

They contrast this +7 with -8 in the same poll exactly a year ago (and -9/-10 in two others). I wonder what changed in the intervening period?

[Graham D'Amiral]

Most of the polling organisations have pointed to a conservative lead ever since March/April this year with the exception of this months mori poll. By way of contrast most polls taken from May-December 2005 showed not only a labour lead but a significant one.

Whilst during that time the Labour government has become more unpopular even David Cameron's strongest critics would have to concede that his election as leader has also had a positive impact.

Opinion polls are a useful snap shot of opinion, but you need to look carefully at long term trends not react to every single poll whether it is good or bad.

[ToMTom]

because he stated he was a Liberal/Conservative. What the hell do you think Winston Churchill was! M

He was an opportunist despised by the Conservative Party which is why Baldwin kept him out of office after 1931. It is why he never became Leader of the Conservative Party until after Neville Chamberlain died in November 1940.

He is a man who had a lucky break when Labour refused to serve under the King's choice of Lord Halifax in May 1940 and who would only serve under Churchill.

He was lucky that the Leader of the Conservative Party Neville Chamberlain agreed to serve under Winston Churchill in a coalition government.

Now what conclusions do you wish to draw from your comment Jack Stone ?

[Monday Clubber]

"The surgery I held on Saturday was in the main shopping street, and I spoke to about 80 people."

What an extraordinary surgery, Ben. Things may have changed radically since I was closely involved in such matters but we used to take the view that most attendees preferred to discuss their personal problems 1-to-1 in confidence.

A major problem with Cameron is not so much that he's "left-wing" but rather that he's so all over the place that he can't really be trusted on anything.

Of course some of his pronouncements on immigration and family matters go against the grain as far a mainstream Conservatives are concerned, but are they even genuine?

He not only backed the Iraq War but personally wrote the (so-called) "far right" manifesto for the last General Election, which he is now busy decrying. In the circumstances it's hardly surprising that our poll figure is in freefall.

Cameron has affected to show some interest in the environment and Third World poverty, both of which, as a Citizen of the World and a Christian, I welcome. Sadly he has shown no interest whatsoever in the Arts, an appalling deficiency in many Conservative politicians.

He selection on Desert Island Discs consisted of a bunch of moronic teenage pop numbers. The sole selection of merit (by
Mendelssohn) was chosen purely because it was played at his wedding.

A very bad sign of superficiality, I'm afraid.

[Godwinson]

An exerpt from Cameron's speech to the Scots
"Another aspect of English cultural insensitivity that rears its head in the media is the vexed question of sporting identity. Why is that Scottish sportsmen and women who win are habitually claimed by English media commentators as ‘British’ only to be promptly redesignated as ‘Scottish’ the moment they lose ?"

I, like most Englishmen take badly to this sort of cheap duplicity. Perhaps it explains Cameron's poor performance in the polls even when the government is seen as totally incompetent and sleezy. Cameron, as a Scot would be well advised to remember that there are few supporters in Scotland even as most of his support is from England.

[Bruce Mackie]

Funny Ben but at my Cllrs Surgeries, most people come in not to discuss National Politics but to raise issues of concern to themselves or the neighbourhood. All the everday things that concern the electorate. Perhaps my flock are different from yours but I have never heard anyone talking about any Tory Leader except when Maggie was there.

[James Maskell]

Wouldnt call it freefall. Its an adjustment, as the Treasury would call it. When policies come out, I think we can be more sure as to what the reasons behind it are, and whether its a hard or soft drop.