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Does anyone know which other Labour MPs would lose their seats?

Wonder how long it will take Christine to get on and say that this is yet another sign that the Conservative Party are headng for defeat at the next election!

Indeed Jack! It is truly amazing that this site for Conservatives is full of criticism of David Cameron and hardly any criticism of Labour/Libs/others!

Wonder how long it will take Christine to get on and say that this is yet another sign that the Conservative Party are headng for defeat at the next election!

No Jack. This doesn't quite seem to be sinking in with some people, but these figures are actually a mark of the state that Labour is in during the dying days of Blair.

By the time the next election comes round he'll be long gone and public opinion, fickle as ever, may well have swung right back again.

Of course we can simply sit on our backsides, congratulate ourselves on having no policies ('Built to Last' is a total joke) shut our eyes and keep our fingers crossed.

...and just keep hoping that Labour isn't going to get its act together.

Bit of a long shot. I wouldn't put any money on it but you go right ahead.

Without wish to be negative, doesn't this poll suggest that a lot of our national opinion poll gain have been in the South East. It would indicate there has been little movement in the north, where many of the key seats to win the next general election are.

Good point Andrew. It would be interesting to see the results of a similar poll in the Manchester/Liverpool/Newcastle/Birmingham etc equivalents. I imagine they would not make such positive reading.

And this Glasgow girl has not been able to countenance the Herald since well before 1997!

However winning back London is one step towards winning back power. Clearly there is much more to do but Cameron's team should be congratulated for the progress made thus far.

Andrew

I suspect that you are right about the North and Scotland etc. Previous polls have suggested that Cameron's appeal is strong in London and the Home counties but has failed to make much impression in the rest of the country. Big gains in London and the SE are progress indeed but not enough to be sure of winning the next election (yet)!

Sorry about the typos in my comment btw. Should have reread it.

"However winning back London is one step towards winning back power."

I hate to rain on your parade Lucy, but nothing at all has been won yet, and the only poll that will count will be the actual election.

I would put it to you that a population stupid enough to elect Livingstone - repeatedly - is a population which cannot be trusted.

''Does anyone know which other Labour MPs would lose their seats?''

From this, Battersea (Martin Linton), Finchley and Golders Green (Rudi Vis), Hendon (Andrew Dismore), Lewisham West and Penge (Jim Doud), Brentford and Isleworth (Ann Keen), Eltham (Clive Efford), Tooting (Sadiq Kahn), Westminster North (Karen Buck)should be the other eight. Although 2 or 3 of those are beyod belief- but that is what the figures say.

However, it looks like the LibDems will also lose 4 to us on this basis and only Kingston and Surbiton looks a long shot.

Monday Clubber - you are wrong! A lot of seats were won in London this May, supporting the evidence from this poll. In Sutton Borough we won 14 seats from the Lib Dems. So Lucy's parade is well and truly marching on!

Richard, when you've been around as long as I have you will learn that you win some, you lose some, and above all, what goes round comes round.

It's a long time till the next general election so I'd keep the champagne on ice for a while if I were you.

MOnday Clubber - oh purlease! That sort of patronising response does your argument no credit. Are we going to trade experience and membership cards now?! lol

I wonder how much of these regional discrepancies are to do with message, and how many are the result of the huge differences in the Party organisation across the country.

I'm sure some of our must-win target seats in the north would trade an arm and a leg for the organisation in some of our long-shot seats in London.

Well Richard I know experience can be an awful bore, but it has a sad habit of triumphing over youthful optimism.

My comment about Londoners and their odd voting habits holds all too good, I'm afraid.

As my old friend Peter Carter-Ruck once said to me 'You can never trust a London jury' The reason he gave for that learned judgment would have him in serious trouble with the PC police , I'm afraid.

Dont forget Wales, you know that bit thats on the left hand side of England, we have gone up 5% and with the equivalent of a Welsh General Election next year we should not be ignored.Our survey results show a marked improvement over last year, however, the biggest problem is apathy which I think will be common throughout the UK as a whole.

I'm surprised that neither Ealing North nor Ealing Central and Acton were in that list. Labour are not the flavour of the month there at the moment due to issues such as the West London Tram, as demonstrated by the elections this year.

I do hope Sadiq Kahn gets his comeupance. He's not the most endearing Labour MP.

I think the predictions for which seats would change hands were done on the basis of the old boundaries, not the new ones which will be in operation by the next election. Harrow West becomes much better for Labour, while Hampstead and Highgate is replaced by the three-way marginal of Hampstead and Kilburn which Brent East MP Sarah "the hamster" Teather has just opted out of.

Hooray for the potential return of Finchley to the Tory fold.

Let's hope that, just for once, the opinion polls actually reflect real outcomes on polling day, far too often they don't.

David- it appears new boundaries were used.I get 12 Labour loses (the 12 mentioned) on that reported swing.

Peter, those two Ealing seats will need a MASSIVE swing from the GE 2005 to fall- the council results of this year show however that it is not fantasy....I remember Labour being shocked (and us!) at the Conservatives losing Romford and Upminster in 1997.

Londoners don't do things by halves!

"I hate to rain on your parade Lucy..."

No you don't! I imagine you positively revelled in pouring scorn over my and Richard's comments in a particularly patronising manner. My mother used to tell me (in fact still does), if you don't have anything helpful to say, don't say anything at all.

Please don't attack each other!

Good work. I guess the test will be the London Mayoral election to see if the rising polls can actually be translated into real votes.

however, the biggest problem is apathy which I think will be common throughout the UK as a whole.
Labour has had a big problem since 1997 with apathy among it's own voters, it obviously contributed towards the Liberal Democrats taking some seats off Labour in 2001 and although Labour's support clearly is well down on 1997, continuing low turnout among Labour supporters obviously is distorting things a bit - if Labour were only to get the same vote next time it would actually signify a further weakening because in 2005 Labour's majority was sizeably down on 1997 and 2001 and many who hadn't voted thinking the election was in the bag for Labour are less likely to think that way next time around - 40% for Labour and 12 million votes or so would probably only suggest that their vote had held compared to 2005 with a higher turnout.

Great news although not unexpected.Now the task will be to get out the vote for our candidate in the Mayoral election. That's going to be quite tough I think as many Conservatives (including probably me )think the office of Mayor and definitely the GLA is a bit of a waste of money.However if we can win the mayorlty it will give us a good springboard for success in the next GE.
Monday Clubber if your patronising and dismissive posts are anything to go by it is pretty obvious why the Monday Club has so little (any?) influence within the Conservative party.

This poll is excellent news, as where London leads the provinces tend to follow.

Monday Clubber - sadly on this occasion you could have chosen your words better:

You said "hate to rain on your parade Lucy, but nothing at all has been won yet" - this is simply wrong. Hundreds of seats were won across London in May. As I indicated, here in Sutton we made sweeping gains and this was reflected in Boroughs across London.

In General Election terms a poll indicating that we are 8% up and the Lib Dems 5% down is mannah from Heaven. Of course it is not an actual result yet but it is a darn sight better than we have had in recent years.

I am delighted that you see me as so youthful (having turned 40) but I can assure you that I have a reasonable amount of campaigning experience and of reading polls!

Ealing North, in particular, is a bellwether constituency. It always follows the party that is in power. Whichever party represents the constituency, it tends to get a rather large majority. I remember Harry Greenway got 59% of the vote in 1987, for example.

I wouldn't get too hopeful about the mayoralty. For all his mistakes Livingstone is still very popular with Londoners, and there's no obvious Tory Londoner who would stand a chance.

Might it be better to concentrate our efforts on winning more GLA seats, so that he can be properly held to account?

I remember Labour being shocked (and us!) at the Conservatives losing Romford and Upminster in 1997.
Nationally the collapse of the Conservative vote in 1997 was surprising, most Labour supporters expected the final result to be more like that in the 1964 General Election with it coming down to quite a small majority, very few people who really thought about it (other than some of the Trots who always expect Labour landslides) expected the Conservative vote to drop below 35% nationally, or for Labour to sweep to victory in places such as Edinburgh Pentlands and the Conservatives to also lose Winchester and then the Liberal Democrats won a huge majority in the following by election in Winchester, and Labour nearly took seats in by elections off the Conservatives in 1997-99, it was a surreal time politically.

as where London leads the provinces tend to follow.
I assume you mean Scotland, Wales, Midlands, Northern England and South West England - they are not provinces of London and any party treating them as such risks not making much progress outside London and the so called "Home Counties".

Yes Yet Another Anon- they were dreadful days....sitting there waiting for a first Tory seat until about 1-30 in the morning!! and then a second , half an hour later. Dreadfully nostalgic.

Interesting for the number crunchers...our first and second hold of the night in 1997 were Solihull and Guidford (to lose Guidford in 2001 and Solihull in 2005!)- how is that for irony!

Harlow (just outside M25) should fall as Bill Rammell (Higher Education) has majority less than 100

CDM has a very good point on the London elections; Livingstone is going to be very hard to beat but if we could achieve an outright majority on the GLA then we could block his profligate budget(s) and perhaps even force him to get rid of his army of left wing hangers on & mates masquerading as advisors. It all depends upon whether we are interested in genuinely achieving something or just in the spin that would result from the, unlikely looking at this point, triumph of beating Red Ken.

I guess the test will be the London Mayoral election to see if the rising polls can actually be translated into real votes.

It will and we will still need to win on the first ballot or all the green/respect/mad socialist and 50% of the golden shower votes will go to Livingstone and wipe us out.

Eugene,awful night but considerably livened up by the grat Cecil Parkinson who made the quip when the 2nd Tory was elected 'at least we have enough for a leadership contest!'Made me smile through the pain.

"Hundreds of seats were won across London in May. As I indicated, here in Sutton we made sweeping gains and this was reflected in Boroughs across London."

Indeed, Richard, but sadly they were not parliamentary seats.

We have a very long time to go before the next general election. FYI I know a lady of 80+ who shares your "youthful" enthusiasm, but I would suggest that cooler heads are called for.

Euphoria has its place but, as I said, I would leave the champagne on ice for the time being.

If I were you I would focus on the underlying reasons for our current poll advantage, take stock, and act accordingly.

"Please don't attack each other!" - Editor

Your plee fell on deaf ears I think.

""as where London leads the provinces tend to follow.""
Don't count on it. Success inside the M25 is one thing, winning the country is another and much less likely thing with that sort of attitude in evidence.

as where London leads the provinces tend to follow.

Someones having a laugh there.

Most people in the provinces barely regard London as part of England these days.

Melanie Phillips. calls it "Londonistan"

This is a good result and it is completely wrong to say that its only the South East. I say this as someone who is neither a blind cheerleader of DC or a rabid critic. I have said what I think is true. There appears to be some who just want everything to be negative. The Built to Last document is good in my view. Perhaps a bit wordy but the right direction. As for claims that this is only about Labour being down and not about an improvement in our Parties appeal is also wrong. Of course we can and should do better but we are making good headway. My day to day interaction with voters indicate that many like DCs approach especially women. Lets give some credit where its due and not be just negative. Yes we could do with a bit more meat but it is starting to feed through with interim policy announcements,

Matt

I have to agree with expressing caution. This government is fronting a war, that while many here might support, is deeply unpopular. We hear of people dying each day. Violent cime is out control, as is immigration. Transport is a t a stand still. The government is publically fighting.

And yet, we only, only just have a 8 point lead in London - about the only place where people have warmed to cameron.

BTW folks (Christina et al) a new Populus poll tomorrow has:

Cons 42%
Lab 33%
LD 16%

Yes Richard that's very impressive.

Clap! Clap! Clap!

Care to tell us when you think the next General Election is likely to be?

Alex, ok can go along with a degree of caution but I don't think it is accurate to say that London is the only place that has warmed to Cameron. I do think people are tending to warm to him but would like to know more. I think this is where getting the balance and timing right is going to be key. There does appear to be interim policy announcements starting and soon we'll all be back from recess (from councillors to MPs) so things will hot up. We can't reveal policy deatil because Labour are shameless copycats (who can't deliver mind you),

Matt

Much of the comment re North v. South ignores the fact that we always look at London as a single entity and take the polling from across the city. You cannot do that in the likes of Liverpool or Manchester simply because they are the 'inner city' parts of bigger 'sub regions' to use DLGC terminology. If you use Greater Manchester (comprising all 10 authorities) or Merseyside (comprising five), the figures are much better than looking at the inner city bits in isolation. Although, not anywhere near as good as the figures for London unfortunately.

Malvolio, I'm guessing your a UKIP member or perhaps have some kind of depressive disorder which you are failing to take your medication for. I say this because you seem to dislike Conservatives doing well. Personally I want to put the days of flatlining at 28/30% behind us but you seem to seem almost nostalgic for it. Chad would dearly like somone to leave comments on his blog, maybe you'd feel more at home at UKIP home.

To come back on topic the poll shows that with the right candidate we can win the Mayoralty. And i'd say we don't have to have a big name if we select early as they will have time to build their reputation across the capital.

If the primary ballot were tomorrow I'd be voting for Andrew Boff - I think he is very impressive.

"BTW folks (Christina et al) a new Populus poll tomorrow has:

Cons 42%
Lab 33%
LD 16%"

Great news Richard. Steady progress but progress nonetheless.

Malvolio - are you a troll? Because you seem disappointed when Tories do well - therefore presumably you are not a Conservative?

I can't imagine the depths of despair you must have reached prior to Cameron becoming leader.

lucy74 when I first ventured over here from PB.com I was confronted with Malvolio and Christina Speight in full flow, and all I had heard about the UKIP/BNP pretentions of posters here was borne out. I'm glad to say you and one or two others have brightened my week by reminding people we are all Conservatives!

I wish those who want a fourth term Labour government would just p*** off back to UKIP where they belong and let us get on with changing our party so it is ready for Government once again.

Another good poll showing the steady progess we have made under the new leadership. Some on this site seem to despair when the Conservative Party does well. As far as I am concerned, if they are members of the Monday Club and despair when we succeed then this is a good thing!!!

Odd that it needs to be said on this site but - I am Conservative and I am delighted that my party is topping polls again. I know that this is not enough to win an election. That is why I support further, wider, faster and deeper change.

lucy74 when I first ventured over here from PB.com I was confronted with Malvolio and Christina Speight in full flow, and all I had heard about the UKIP/BNP pretentions of posters here was borne out. I'm glad to say you and one or two others have brightened my week by reminding people we are all Conservatives!

Sometimes I worry that these haters are plants from the Labour Party out to harm our party. And then sometimes I think they might just be lonely and dispossessed. Perhaps they need a hug!!! ;-)

So many admirers. Well I'm flattered.

No Lucy. I'm not disillusioned at all that we are doing well, but I am concerned about premature crowing. Up there in Glasgow, North Britain, I think you can be forgiven for being a little out of touch though.

What we need is quiet unpretentions hard work - the sort of thing some of us have been doing for years - then we'll have the big celebration once we've won and not before.

So sorry to disappoint you but I'm not a member of UKIP or the Monday Club. The only pressure group I now belong to is Conservative Way Forward.

I can recommend it.

Lucy74:
Try Electoral Calculus
Click on 'Vulnerable seats' and 'Region by region'.

lucy74 when I first ventured over here from PB.com

What has Pitney-Bowes to do with this site ?


On the new boundaries, we'd gain (on these figures):-

Richmond Park
Sutton & Cheam
Carshalton from the Lib Dems

Hendon
Finchley
Croydon Central
Brentford & Isleworth
Hammersmith
Westminster North
Tooting
Battersea
Eltham
Harrow East
Ealing North
Hampstead & Kilburn from Labour.

Brent North, Harrow West, Poplar and Limehouse, Dulwich & Norwood and Feltham & Heston would all be close.


"Up there in Glasgow, North Britain, I think you can be forgiven for being a little out of touch though."


I have lived in England for 10 years, am a London councillor and work for an MP. So actually not that out of touch!

But I am so glad you have added an unpleasant anti-Scottish undertone to your posts - you can't be truly unpleasant without having a go at the Scots too I suppose!

Yay for Cameron! Our saviour! Indeed I agree with changetowin and lucy74. I just cant understand why some despair when another ground breaking poll emerges.
These pretenders are not Conservatives. But I dont know if theyre UKIP/BNP plants, or Labour plants.
We are finally a credible alternative after years of disarray and develish tourment. Britain is ready to vote Tory again.

This poll is very good for our Party and after only 8-9 months of a new leader.

We are now in a position to gain a swathe of London parliamentary seats at the next General Election. This is in London which in 1997 which was very anti Conservative Party. Yes, it is true that we have the organisation in these seats to 'GET OUT THE VOTE' (GOTV).

We will have new policy announcements next year and should be even further ahead in the polls then.

We also need to ensure that we sort out the organisation in key marginal seats, particularly in parts of the Midlands, the north and Scotland & Wales, by recruiting new members and re-energising our delivery networks and teams of activists. Rising in the polls, and looking as if we will win, should gain us members in these seats and all we will need to do is ask for their help. We need to rebuild in these seats so we can GOTV there too.

We will battle against an 'old guard' who really can't be a***d to get out and knock up on election day etc.

I was in a committee room entering telling results into a computer in a key ward in Wolverhampton S.W. on General Election day 2005, with a group of councillors and ward "activists" (zero active frankly) who really could not be bothered doing anything and were more interested in having Fish & Chips than knocking up. If 'members' can't be bothered going out to knock up, voters are hardly going to be bothered ... voting.

If we can revitalise our constituency associations in these seats and recruit more deliverers etc, we will ensure that being ahead in the polls really does translate into gains particularly where we need them.

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