Tony Blair confirms he'll be gone within 12 months

A paraphrasing of what Tony Blair has just said...

I apologise for the last week on behalf of the Labour Party - not our finest hour given what is going on in the world.

I would have preferred to do this in my own way but the next Party Conference will be my last as leader - the next TUC conference will be my last, too, and neither of us will mind that.

I am not going to set a precise date now.  The precise timetable has to be left open to me.

The Labour Party must understand that the public must come first.  We cannot treat the public as irrelevant bystanders in who is their Prime Minister.

Interesting that he said nothing about Gordon Brown.  My guess is that the Blairites might now seek to undermine Brown at every turn given the role of Brownites in recent days.

3.30pm: The BBC's verbatim transcript.

7pm update: David Cameron has issued the following statement: "We're in a situation that is frankly shambolic and deeply unsatisfactory. We’ve got a government whose senior members are questioning each others’ judgment and have been at war with each other effectively for a fortnight.  At a time when we’ve got British troops serving overseas; we’ve got terror threats at home; huge issues we need to deal with in our own country. What’s happened today isn’t going to end the uncertainty. I think it will probably only add to the paralysis. And frankly Britain deserves better than this.  What we need is not some ‘deal’ – we need a new Government that can have the vision and leadership for a strong future for this country.”

Comments

[malcolm]

Good for Blair.Hopefully we will have civil war in the Labour Party now.I think this is the first time in British history a PM has done this so the country will either have regicide(?) of a PM or a lame duck PM.Either will be good for the Conservative party.
Having said that Cameron will have to be a statesman and not just a tactically astute party leader.The country will demand it.

[Gildas]

They'll miss him when he's gone. And so will we as Nanny Brown will be truly appalling. Fortunately, Brown as PM should just about sew up the next election for us.

[Adam]

I think its fantastic that he is staying on for another 12 months as that gives Labour ample time to tear itself apart during this period. The plottings and back stabbings will continue unabated for a year and perhaps even longer. Its a shame Blair isn't staying on longer.

I hope Cameron takes this oppurtunity by the scruff of the neck and takes advantage. We won't get a better chance to ensure we are in a position to win the next election whenever it is called. Game on!!

[leon]

Two outcomes; this will either add fuel to the fire and force more division or placate and defer the whole thing. I wonder which Brown prefers?

[chrisblore]

Yet another weak and temporary diffusion of the conflict. Brown knows his time is running out before next year's local elections but will his supporters have to pull the trigger for him and force Blair out?

[Oberon Houston]

He is being very clever in avoiding giving Brown a clear target. If that was ever given, Brown would immediately bulldoze over Blair. By holding back, Brown is back to square one and he is notoriously indecisive when brave decisions political are required

[George Hinton]

Deep joy.
Another 12 months of bickering to really set alight the flames of factional in-fighting.
Interesting to see what happens at the next Labour Party conference and the role of the unions in power brokering now they are picking up the tabs.
In all your dreams you could not have scripted this.
Dave will have to use every opportunity to score, its an open goal.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Having completely ignored Alan Johnson in their summary of potential serious challengers to Brown the other day, the BBC have been doing their best to talk him up today.

Both Johnson and John Reid have been rather quiet during the troubles of recent days - letting Gordon Brown dig the hole in which they'll bury his leadership ambitions perhaps?

[Serf]

MacBrown:
Is this a Dagger I see before me?

Yes, and I suggest you use it before Reid or Johnson get their hands on it.

[Tom]

Rumours are that Brown was happy for Blair to stay on past May, but he had to be gone in July.
What does that tell us? That the last thing Gordon wants is to be in charge when Labour get decimated at the local and regional elections next May. He'd much rather Tony still be around to carry the can for that one before the great white whale...sorry, hope of the labour party comes riding to the rescue.

[tapestry]

we can't treat the public as irrelevant bystanders = the media aren't pushing this agenda, so I will ignore it.

[William Norton]

TICK TOCK TICK TOCK...Brown is running out of time. He should have knifed Blair by now.

Is it me, or has Blair just made the equivalent of Michael Howard's Putney announcement of a long leadership election to allow the widest field of candidates to emerge? Perhaps Gordon needs to start rehearsing his conference speech now.

[Jake]

Watching these Scotchmen wrangle over who is going to rule England - with the English mere spectators on their miserable , selfish , spiteful infightings - just brings home how defunct and alien the British constitution has become to England .

[EML]

Good point William Norton.

The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader.

I might just be far too pedantic, but Blair doesn't say the conference next year will be his last as Prime Minister.

Reading the transcript very carefully, he leaves himself a lot of possibilities, 'depending on the circumstances' etc. How about abolishing the party conference ...?

[JNB]

Good point about the Putney speech.

Though it felt more like David Davis summer 2005 when he came back from a long brooding summer holiday with ... nothing. Leadership chance killed by a badly-timed damp squib.

[knight of cydonia]

Well now we know that the next twelve months or so are going to be twelve months of sheer hell. They'll make the last nine years look like bliss in comparison.

[hf]

This is bad for Brown, because a long wait adds a year to his age and increases the chances of a rival. It is also bad for Blair, because he will not be able to get anything through that his Ministers do not want. It is very good for Conservatives as things are unresolved and will eat away at Labour's effectiveness.

And if Brown succeeds, he will only gain voters from the Lib Dems, but lose votes to us because he is too scottish and not Blair.
So our poll lead will grow and the Lib Dems will be squeezed.

Nick Robinson on BBC News24 now "my notebook is full of bile from Ministers over this, no timetable, no agreed process to work to". Nick says that little is settled and the matter festers away.

[G Wild]

Go on Blair, sock it to the socialists! I hope he goes on and on, and on....

[johnC]

'The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader.'

...or it could just mean that he's going to remain leader but he's not going to any more party conferences. 'Brighton,
Blackpool ? I prefer Barbados.'

[G Wild]

hahah love it JohnC! And the TUC - "Itll be my last, probably to the relief of us both" (or something to those words) - hell remain PM, but really will not talk to the TUC ever again. Maybe he's going to cross the floor of the house?

[chrisblore]

So it seems that Blair's ministers are not accepting this blindly as he expected them and the rest of the British public to do. Just who does he think he is if he believes that he can hold the public and even his own close colleagues in such contempt? I suppose we should have known better having experienced nearly ten years of lies, lies and more lies.

[Umbrella Man]

I love the civil war leader graphic. Brown has behaved so badly in the last few days. The Blair camp will want to taste revenge. IT COULD BE DELICIOUS FOR US!

[Mike Broadbridge]

IT COULD BE DELICIOUS FOR US!

Really?

And do you think, Umbrella Man, that these are sentiments worthy of the Conservative Party, as opposed to some yobbish rabble like the BNP?

You are possibly too young to recall the headline "100 Tory Yobs on the Rampage". I thought our party had grown out of that, but sadly the sentiments appear to have changed remarkably little over the years.

We are doing well at present and it behoves us to act with dignity and, above all, magnanimity.

[Richard]

Is it me or is there something pathetically childish about this whole debacle?

Brown: "It's not fair, you said you'd go by now"

Blair "Tough luck, I've changed my mind, nobody likes you"

Brown "Fine then, I'll just get five ministers to resign"

Blair "I'll make you for for this when you become PM"

[Richard]

*eight ministers

[Prodicus]

'my last conference as Leader... to the relief of both of us...'

Assuming 'us' means him and the Labour Party as opposed to him and Brown, this just illustrates that he knows that he, in fact, er, isn't the leader of his party. Choose from (a) Not Any More and (b) He Never Really Was Labour Anyway.

[James Hellyer]

I understand the "Anyone But Brown" tendency in the parliamentary Labour Party met last week and many of them thought they should let Brown run unchallenged.

They call it the "1983" strategy: let Brown lead Labour to defeat, so that Blairites can say that this is what happens when you depart from the one true path - the Tories get in.

[tapestry]

Brown should be asked where he stands on the Euro. It's three years since he last commented on it, when he said it would be at least four more years before it arrived in the UK. Will he now guarantee that Britain will not join the Euro for at least another ten years? If not, Brown's openness to the Euro must be a weakness, which an opponent could usefully exploit. Maybe McDonnell could start the bidding.

[David Walker]

I hope that Labour will elect a leader who can beat DC into submission for us; allow a new (real) Tory leader to take the job before collapsing under a sustained and logical (real) Tory fire.

If DC were ever let near number 10 the Tory party would be ruined forever. If we want to see UKIP slowly but surely growing in stature and eventually taking the not inconsiderable right wing vote then keeping DC as leader is the right way of doing that.

We should stop concentrating on Labour "renewing" in office and concentrate on our necrosis as a viable party while in opposition.

[kingbongo]

it behoves us to act with dignity and, above all, magnanimity.

why?

absolute drivel; nothing in this situation requires magnanimity.

As an ordinary party member whose had his private pension destroyed by Blair, had his armed forces sent out to fight without proper equipment or casus belli and witnessed a chaotic dismemberment of the constitution of my country I feel like dancing.

You might think it's better to appear above the fray but socialism is the enemy of ordinary working people and when socialism reverts to its natural state of bitchy infighting between egotistical maniacs then that's good entertainment for me and a sure sign that the leader of my party and his team are doing the right thing.

[christina speight]

G Wild - "Maybe he's going to cross the floor of the house?"

Well Cameron and Blair would get on well together. Both are treacherous and liars. BUT who would then be leader. Maybe a lunch in a Notting Hill restaurant looms?

[Mike Broadbridge]

You might think it's better to appear above the fray but socialism is the enemy of ordinary working people

Well if you regard Nulabour's politics as 'Socialism' then 'ordinary working people' aren't going to get much of a change with Dave's Bluelabour carbon copy, are they?

Your capers would be childish enough if we'd just won a General Election, but we haven't. All I see is a kind of tribal gloting which would repel the electorate (thankfully not present) even more than it repels me.

[wasp]

What I don't understand is why Brown hasn't moved today. He could have Blair finished by the end of the month if he wanted, sure it would be messy, but its already messy and for every week this continues he looks more and more like Macbeth anyway.

[kingbongo]

I am happy that the socialists are in trouble and my party is going to win the next election. I am tribal - unabashadly unashamedly. Any COnservative government will, on balance be better for England than any Labour government. As your sympathies might be more appropriate to UKIP you could pop over to UKIPhome and have a chat with the tumbleweed blowing through the site.

My 'capers' - and gloting (sic - we all make typos) ooh get you grandad. "These young tearaways with their cardigans and their Jazz music, things weren't like in my day oh no."

God bless CH for always digging out the wingnuts that other blogs can't find.

[Voice from the South West]

Peter Kellner on News 24 just spilled the beans of a poll in tomorrows Telegraph - Con 40%, Lab 32% - an eight point Tory lead, but Labour is barely unchanged, for the moment.

[Ian Williamson]

When -- if -- the Glower Behind The Throne becomes PM, he'll have two major problems for the Conservatives to exploit. First, he'll inherit the economic problems he's created and will not be able to micro-manage the Treasury any more: he's a control freak and the more overall power he gains, the less able he will be to directly manipulate. Secondly, he's been, in effect, the joint managing-director of the entire New Labour project. "Ten Years of Deceit" is a nice mantra that should make him -- or whoever -- feel nicely uncomfortable.

[Ted]

kingbongo

- there is a curious echo in the posts you responded to - remember how recently Tim had to block posts from someone who had already been banned under another username? Just don't feed them is the policy I think.

[spagbob]

this is great news for the conservatives - a labour party tearing itself. i reckon blair wont last past christmas now - 12 months will be too long for many brownites to wait. however, cameron is right, while it may be great for us to see these problems, its not great for this country - we need a strong government.

[Richard Carey]

I hope that Labour will elect a leader who can beat DC into submission for us; allow a new (real) Tory leader to take the job before collapsing under a sustained and logical (real) Tory fire.

There's always one. Hoping that my Conservative Party colleagues would join me in just getting on with the job and presenting a compentent face while watching Labour fall apart (pass the popcorn, please, this is kind of fun!) was obviously a bit too much to ask of you, wasn't it?

Heaven forbid we should work to win now... are you sure you landed on the right website?

[Mike Broadbridge]

As your sympathies might be more appropriate to UKIP you could pop over to UKIPhome and have a chat with the tumbleweed blowing through the site.

I did indeed vote for UKIP at the European elections and may well do so again.

I certainly have not yet made up my mind whether to vote for Cameron when the time comes. The geeky comments on this thread certainly don't dispose me towards the Cameron camp, but then I suppose he can't be blamed for the immaturity of some of his supporters.

[David Walker]

Unlike most of the sychophantic (and for the record it will do you no good) 'Cameroons' on here I AM a Conservative.

I want a Conservative party that actually stands for Conservative values, we haven't got that at the moment. We have a good looking boy in charge peddling rubbish to an electorate that will give him short shrift when it comes to the crunch.

I worked like a trojan for the party during the IDS and Howard years because I believed in the message I was helping to transmit. To denigrate my opinions now is a sharp reflection of the narrow minded, principle light party we are becoming under DC.

I shall keep my membership of the party so I can vote against DC as much as possible, however I will never vote for the 'Conservative' party while he is leader and shall certainly not wear out my shoe leather on his behalf.

The party is bigger than one individual, we must show DC this.

[James Maskell]

A lot of us worked our asses off. I didnt work as hard as a lot of others who put themselves through an awful lot. Its sad that our own Leadership doesnt recognise this. As Ive quoted before, Marland had criticsed the voluntary Party for supposedly leaving everything to the parliamentary party, an insult which I thought was ouot of order.

If we could have Cameron but with a beefed up policy platform supported with right wing policies, man, we could have just about the perfect political party. Sadly Cameron seems to think its one or the other and Im afraid Id prefer a right wing supported political platform...

[eugene]

Gives us a clue what kind of PM Brown will make. Blair gets elected saying he will not be there next time, says he will give the new one time to settle in.....and Brown allows his allies to stoke it up and demand Blair go now. It is completely unreasonable. Brown did not get his crowd under control.

It shows Brown to be disloyal, dishonest, manipulative, selfish and lacking leadership.

Blair should have sacked him....told his mates to support a motion of no confidence and vote with the Tories if they don't like it....and then lose a general election...PUT UP OR SHUT UP. Blair missed his opportunity.

Getting rid of Brown would have been good for Britain.

Aside...why is Brown so desperate to get away from his present job?.....fan, hit,about, s**t are four words that come to mind.

[matt wright]

Some of you are complete head bangers. Labour are in disarray. They have panicked because of the oncoming May elections. We are set to be 8 points ahead tomorrow in the polls and you are having a go at our leader. Completey mad!

Matt

[Gildas]

First, he'll inherit the economic problems he's created and will not be able to micro-manage the Treasury any more: he's a control freak and the more overall power he gains, the less able he will be to directly manipulate.

Agreed. And you KNOW he is going to quarrel with his Chancellor - even if his Chancellor is his creature at first.

[Og]

Christ what a sorry sight Blair made, gulping and hesitating and peeling onions just out of camera shot. A leader holed below the water line, confidence shot to hell, if ever there was one. A latter day Eden.

But, splendidly, he elects for the long drawn out dentistry rather than opting for the cotton and slamming door trick. Brown, ghastly though he is, lacks the necessary oomph to bring the whole Blair charade to a close within days. Brown the ultimate loser.

But what we realy talk about on this blog is Cameron. And Cameron, if he had a shred of common sense and conservatism about him, would realise that the holy grail of an election win, WHILST STANDING ON CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES, awaits him. But he is neither a Conservative by character nor intellectual honesty, so the conservative babies of principle will be thrown out with the bathwater of politically correct blather about high tax'n'spend, green ishoos and affirmative action in selection policy. God rot the the lot of the opportunist crumbs who purport to lead our party. Let them create a Whig party, and be elected or damned. Continued hijacking of the Tory party must cease.

There is a chance, on re-reading the above, that the Crozes-Hermitage 95 has had its effect tonight. But the sentiment remains true.

[Jaz]

Cameron is clever enough not to alienate a segment of society like Howard and Thatcher did. He understands the steps required to secure a long-term strategy to revive our party in deprived areas and ethnic minority areas.

I mean surely, 8 points ahead, current polling heading for a majority conservative government which was never even considered during the leadership election is a good sign.

Labour will continue in-fighting until the new leader is chosen, until then we should try hard in core-policy areas, health, security and foreign policy. What trust can the people of britain have in the labour party now?

[TimC]

Am I the only person who believes that Blair should stick to his word??

Prior to the election he promised to stay for a whole term.

It seems that everyone is so used to the new Labour lies that this doesn't even get mentioned.

[Monday Clubber]

"Cameron is clever enough not to alienate a segment of society like Howard and Thatcher did."

He seems to have alienated somewhere around 25% of the Conservative Party according to the poll which was on on this page.

However, despite my reservations about him, I must admit he has been very charming and conciliatory to my colleagues, which is more than you could say for one of his predecessors.

[Jack Stone]

The party is eight points clear in the polls, looking a good bet to be the next government and still we get the Euro-fanatics come on and say that they hope the party loses.
A David Cameron government will I suspct give everyone in the pary something to cheer about and support. A Brown lead government will give true Conservatives nothing to cheer about, plenty to oppose and will continue to ruin our country in the way Blair as done these last ten years.
If you back Cameron we will win, if you don`t not only will we lose the country will lose as well.

[James Maskell]

Jack, we are talking about Cameron and the Tories because if this Government goes into meltdown in the way it looks like it will, we need to know what position we will be in when it happens. At the moment, we are not ready. We are well behind. Cameron and co's jaunts around the world on holiday are meaningless without substantial policy which stands up to scrutiny. Weve had promises of what? More taxes... Weve been told that globalisation is harmful (even though the whole point of free trade is globalisation-its called capitalism Georgy). This is not stuff we can sell to the public.

[christina speight]

Matt and the other Cameroons here can't understand that for the sake of our country we must replace this disaster of a government with something, not just a bit better, but with a government of principle and which has goals which people can understand and fight for.

I, and others here, fear that we are a merely swapping one lot of meretricious spinners for another lot. If that is the case why bother? I am one of those whom Cameron "seems to have alienated somewhere around 25% of the Conservative Party" (Monday Clubber above -0649)

As another wrote to me this week after reading what I had written here:- "Slowly but surely, the phoney Cameron will be exposed. I remember a feeling of dread I had just before the leadership ballot. I was sat in a restaurant with 12 of our most active members. All good right-wingers. Every single one of them (bar me) had voted for Cameron. I saw the same group last Saturday, and 9 of them had changed their mind and said they had been mistaken."

OK, so Cameron has squeezed his lead up to 8pts (but WITHOUT Labour falling) and is in with a slim chance, provided the new Labour leader also makes a muck of it. Otherwise he'll lose because he has given us nothing to fight FOR.

[Yet Another Anon]

Interesting that he said nothing about Gordon Brown.
Not really, his position has always been that he is not involved in who is succeeding him (other than having votes himself as an MP and a party member), a lot of cabinet ministers are coming forward and openly backing Gordon Brown including David Miliband and Hilary Benn, Charles Clarke while critical of Gordon Brown strangely also endorsed him.

Tony Blair obviously doesn't want to be seen as being after his leaving as Prime Minister a "back seat driver".

[Jack Stone]

If its true that Cameron is losing support from the right he must be gaining support from somewhere to have this healthy lead in the polls. Could it be that he is actually gaining spport from the moderate, centre ground of voters where general elections are won and lost.
I`d rather see us get ten voters from the centre votng for us than five from the looney right!

[Matt Wright]

Christina, I am not a "Cameroon" as you call it. I have criticised the modernisers when I feel they have got it wrong and I have only supported them when it was deserved. We are 8% ahead in the polls (would be good to be more of course) and some of you are obsessively critising DC. Originally I had some sympathy with some of your comments (eg on EU) but they just get more and more obsessive and close minded. On balance that approach is more damaging to Conservatism and in fact to any attempt to reverse the damage that the EU is causing. What I would say though is at least you post under your actual name. I think the fascinating thing that emerges from many of the threads is that some of you belevce in some sort of purist ideological position (ironically in the same way that Socialism fails) that even Thatcher would not have attempted. In fact politics always has and always will be about pragmatic reality. It is about attempting to get things done in a non-pure world of human contradictions.

Matt

[blin]

the legacy: a comedy of terrors
The breathtaking novel that has the whole of Westminster twittering!
The tale chronicles the progress of unbridled governance, its demise and inevitable descent into hubris.
The work’s title, subject matter and it reasonance with the public are obvious, but it is absolutely bursting with handy quotables and chic wisdom as well.
Freeview. Please use recycled paper.
www.myspace.com/thelegacyacomedyofterrors
Grab you handy quotables and chic wisdom now!

Download my novel in pdf format. Go to:
www.geocities.com/andrewblinman