The Sun spins for Brown

Yesterday we learnt of an unlikely 1% Labour lead from a MORI survey.  A YouGov survey for today's Sun - taken before Clare Short's outburst - is more in line with recent opinion polls - giving the Tories a 7% lead.  The Tories enjoy a 5.8% lead in the ConservativeHome poll of polls.

The most interesting aspect of The Sun's coverage of their YouGov poll is the newspaper's willingness to put the most positive pro-Brown spin on the poll's more detailed findings...

"Gordon Brown is well on the way to redeeming himself in the wake of the Tony Blair coup affair, a Sun poll reveals today.  His public support for the Prime Minister in the last few days has restored the public’s faith in him, according to our exclusive survey...

The YouGov survey gave a further boost to Mr Brown with a massive 84 per cent of Labour voters saying he has done a “good job” running the economy...

Even better, he is a crushing 13 points — a country mile in political terms — ahead of nearest rival John Reid in the race to succeed the PM and an astonishing 21 points ahead of “golden boy” Alan Johnson..."

The Sun still appears open to back Gordon Brown and in the Sun Says column is downbeat about the Tory performance: "While Labour was in the middle of a war of words, the Tory Party’s lead over Labour went DOWN, not UP."

Another way of reading Gordon Brown's interventions of the last two days - describing Tony Blair as his friend and his new willingness to talk about his baby's tragic death - is to see the Brown camp panicking at the rise of Alan Johnson following the Brownites' plotting of last week.

Comments

[Ted]

It really is a pro-Brown reading of the poll
"crushing 13 points" is Sun take on Question - which of these Labour MPs do you think would make the best PM - which had Don't know 44% Gordon Brown 28%. Not I would say the most crushing support for the best known contender and PM designate for nearly a decade.
Best PM? David Cameron 43% Gordon Brown 34%

[Andrew Woodman]

84 per cent of Labour voters saying he has done a “good job” running the economy...

Well they would wouldn't they. I do wonder how long the Sun will persist in backing a vote loser like Brown.

[Richard]

Why are the Sun so pro-Brown? Do they secretly hope he'll lose Labour the election? Are they afraid someone more left-wing might get in if he doesn't? What is Murdoch's agenda here?

Ah yes, sucking up to the (probable) next PM.

[Wallenstein]

Murdoch is pro-Labour just as he has been for years. So what's new?

No need to come over all hurt about it.

We need the type of leader who can talk Murdoch's language. A man who has a real chance of getting The Sun on our side.

Looks like it aint going to happen till after the next election.

Pip!Pip!

[Alexander Drake]

Ted, that preferred PM figure is amazing given Brown has been Chancellor much longer than Cameron has been in Parliament.

His preferred Labour leader figure is amazingly low too. If I were John Reid or Alan Johnson I'd have a spring in my step - it's still wide, wide open.

[NickB]

"We need the type of leader who can talk Murdoch's language. A man who has a real chance of getting The Sun on our side."

No, we need the type of leader who has the balls to tell the likes of Murdoch where to get off. The perceived influence of the Murdoch press on how people vote is no more than a product of his own very successful propaganda. Cameron does not depend on the Sun (or the Times for that matter) to get his message across, and a willingness to break a few eggs in Wapping will contrast favourably in the eyes of many voters to NuLab's manic obsession with tomorrow's headlines over the past nine years.

[Max]

It would certainly be helpful to have the Murdoch press on board but at the same time I doubt they have the same level of influence they used to so it's not as crucial as it once was/

I also wonder if the poll leads are sustained for six months to a year we might see a change in heart. Murdoch doesn't like a loser.

[tapestry]

Murdoch does deals with the EU to back politicians or sack them - IDS e.g. Brown has acquired an EU seal of approval somehow. I wondered if he has secretly agreed to push Britain into the Euro. A journalist asked him last week, and he denied this.

[tapestry]

Cameron has decided to go for power without the Murdoch seal of approval - i.e.unlike Blair, he has done no deals with Murdoch or the EU. That is probably one reason why he ducked the EPP decision. Murdoch and others would have used it as an opportunity to portray him as a little englander, and push him backwards.

What's happened to Jack Straw lately? Surely he has enough stature to enter the Labour fray.

[david]

In the interest of political balance. Some of us can remember when the Sun was staunchly pro-Tory. When the Sun run stories about the Labour party which where blatently un-true. After all it was the Sun 'what won it' for the Tories, with its picture of Kinnock's head as a light bulb, and its headline, 'Will the last person to leave Britain please switch out the light' did anyone complain then?

[David Belchamber]

"Others" still amount to 14% - only 4% behind the Lib Dems - so there are a lot of votes to be picked up on the fringes by any party with an attractive manifesto.

[Nigel Seymour]

If the Sun continues to back Brown it could be the first time in a long time that the Sun backs a loser. It is clear some sort of deals have been struck as the interpretation of this poll is with brown tinted glasses. Check out a much fairer interpretation at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php

The blog's author Anthony Wells concludes...
"... but for a poll that shows Brown falling further behind Cameron than last week, shows the proportion of people who think he will be a bad Prime Minister rising and shows the proportion of people who want to see him as the next Labour dropping, it’s a somewhat unusual interpretation…"

Taxi for Mr Brown?

[malcolm]

I'm happy for the Sun to back Brown at the moment.I want him to beat Johnson in a leadership contest as I really believe that we will be able to pick up a swathe of English constituencies with him as leader.
As for Murdoch,he has always both here and abroad been amazingly consistent.He backs those he think will win, his business interests have always been more important to him than politics.If he thinks DC will win shortly before an election most of News Internationals papers will back him,nothing more sure.

[christina speight]

David Belchamber - "Others" still amount to 14% - only 4% behind the Lib Dems - so there are a lot of votes to be picked up on the fringes"

When a large part of that 14% is accounted for by SNP, Plaid Cymru and Ulster parties there is little left for the "picking up"!

What no poll tells us is the percentage of Don't Knows which are EXcluded from all reports

[Richard Bailey]

This is not pro- Brown, this is traditional media tactics of stoking a jolly good fire so that the story stays alight. Murdoch will give Johnson just as much space when he asks for it - as he surely will.
They just want to host a long running battle.

On a human level, I sypathise with the Browns. Losing a child must be devastating. But I'm still not going to vote for him.

[Wallenstein]

Personally I find the anti-Scots racism implicit in Malcolm's post above (and several others) utterly nauseating.

As Mr Brown has said in today's paper, he is a Briton, and that is what matters. I wonder whether the Cameron clique would make similar criticisms if he were a Briton of Asian or African descent.

Seems like that scary poll result is prompting them to scrape the bottom of the far-right barrel.

[George Hinton]

Spin, spin, spin.
The usual mendacious claptrap from NuLab, talking up Gordon as the successor to B-Liar.
NuLab don't want an election for Tony's replacement, as they know it will be highly divisive and allow the old guard left to get back into control. Like all despots Tony favours the anoint a successor syndrome, rather than a democratic process.
We are seeing the NuLab smoke and mirrors strategy go into overdrive. I feel sorry for the Sun readers who are being short changed.

[christina speight]

Everybody concentrates on the Sun's support for Brown but the important thing is the Cameronian Conservative party is stuck (if not slipping) at a level which would produce a Labour victory.

Will those on this list please realise that Cameron is not winning the hearts and minds of the electorate and if he stays there without showing some mettle - or "bottom" as it was once called - the party is heading for a fourth defeat .

Everything that happens reinforces the feeling that the party's leadership has no idea whatsoever where it is going. It harps on about change but doesn't say WHAT it wants to change. or TO what ! For instance what is this childish scribble of a logo meant to convey - incompetence? slovenliness? . The torch at least implied that we should get off our backsides and fight.

[Wat Tyler]

You can't knock Murdoch- he didn't get as rich as he is by misreading the public.

But given all his dosh, I'm disappointed he doesn't give us right-thinking types a bit more meat. In the States, he not only funds Fox News (now a money spinner, but not initially), but he also funds the Weekly Standard, which certainly doesn't make money (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Weekly_Standard )

Still, the internet has vastly reduced the value of his platform ownership anyway.

Roll on Tim Telly.

[Jon Gale]

Malcolm is right, we WANT Gordon Brown to be Labour leader, (though more because he is a charisma-free zone than because he's Scottish), so everybody keep quiet!

[Northerner]

Brown may be dull, but he'll still beat Cameron at the next general election. Brown has controlled the economy perfectly over the last nine years - what has Cameron done? Nothing. Experience and policies will beat personality and spin.

[JimJam]

Northener - what has Brown done compared to Maggie Thatch ? Nothing. So MT for PM next time ?

[milburntrumpsshadowcabinet]

Milburn has unfortunately set out more good ideas in one speech than the entire Shadow Cabinet has this year.

The TPA is right to draw attention to it - will the Party? Im afraid Im not holding my breath, but if Milburn and co seize this agenda, we will be behind the curve for another ten years...

http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/news/individual_blog.php?post_id=342

[malcolm]

Northerner-'Brown has controlled the economy perfectly',I trust you are joking! He did well for 2 years when he followed Tory spending plans but I'm sure you might have noticed the both unemployment and inflation are at 6 and 7 year highs. The less said about pensions,investment and economic competitiveness the better. The only thing he has going for him is that interest rates are still low nbut for how much longer?
Oh and Wallenstein you might have guessed from my name that my family are Scottish!

[Andrew]

Shock horror: "Murdoch rag lies to suit owners' needs". Whatever next?

[Jonathan M Scott]

Malcolm - absolutely spot on. Brown has created many many public sector jobs to try to offset the loss of private sector employment - particularly in so-called labour heartlands such as the North, Scotland and parts of the Midlands. London & SE is overheating and Labour are even going to build 100,000s of new homes there. There are many other elements of Brown's policies as Chancellor (such as his tax on the pension funds, increasing National Insurance, etc) that indicate he has not been so wonderful.

People might think Brown would make a good PM but when they see him in action, and when they see the shining alternative (David Cameron), and when they go to the polling booth (or not as the case may be) many of them will vote otherwise.

hence at the next general election we will see something along the lines of:

CON - 43-45%
LAB - 31-33%

[David Belchamber]

Thank you, Christina at 10:21:
"What no poll tells us is the percentage of Don't Knows which are EXcluded from all reports".

I got that wrong but it seems likely that there are a great number of "Don't knows" and "Don't cares" out there at the moment, while, given a strong manifesto, we could pick up a lot of voters who would otherwise vote for the one-issue or fringe parties.

[G-MaN Wild]

Northaner - If the econamy is doing so well, how come no one has got any money? Brown has spent and spent, though he says invest, he has not invested in an aweful lot just thrown our money at the problems we face. Without results.

[tapestry]

Murdoch picks winners? Cameron's a winner if the polls are anything to be believed, but Murdoch doesn't rate him.

If you look at all the people Murdoch has backed, they've all been willing to agree to signing EU Treaties - Thatcher, Major, Blair and no doubt Brown has. Anyone who stood up against the EU, IDS e.g., and Thatcher once the reality of the EU had dawned on her, was assassinated.

Cameron has not committed himself on the EU and so gets no Murdoch support. If Labour picked a leader who was unwilling to trade with the EU, then they too would receive no support.

The EU and Murdoch have an agreement to back Brown so he's obviously offered to payback - we don't know how but we suspect it might be to do with the Euro. They will fight like mad to keep Brown in the No 1 slot if they can. That's what's happening now.

I am not in agreement with Conservatives who would like to see Brown as PM. He would sell the country down the river. An alternative outsider - even a left wing one - would be far safer as regards preserving what little is left of our independence. Brown is clearly a danger to Britain as he is getting such powerful support from Murdoch.

[MH]

Thank you Johnathon M Scott for a real laugh. The Conservatives at 43-45%: priceless. Think you may find a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party and the Conservatives making limited headway as their core voters desert or stay at home - leaving Princess Dave with some explaining to do.

[Andrew]

"The EU and Murdoch have an agreement to back Brown...."

When was this announced?

[Yet Another Anon]

What's happened to Jack Straw lately? Surely he has enough stature to enter the Labour fray.
He said he was backing Gordon Brown for the leadership and left it at that, he probably sees no advantage in causing any kind of a ruckus.

So far as Clare Short goes, I think that really either she was going to stand against Gordon Brown for the leadership and stand for the Deputy Leadership or she was going to bow out and either switch parties (maybe the Liberal Democrats, although who knows? She might have been well positioned to seize the leadership of the Respect Party) to another or stand down as an MP, the only surprising thing is that she has handed an opportunity to Labour's Whip to remove the whip which means she would lose her right to vote in the MP's section of the coming Leadership and Deputy Leadership elections.

If she wanted to increase the chances of a hung parliament as she said and PR then I woulod have thought if she had decided to bow out then the most logical thing would have been to stand down as an MP sooner causing a by election which at this moment probably the Liberal Democrats would have snapped up.

It is amazing that someone as naive and politically simple minded as Clare Short should ever have emerged as a leading political figure. There is no chance that either Labour or the Conservatives even in a Hung Parliament situation will go for some full PR system, even if the leaders do then their own MP's will go against them, the Conservatives are now reviving and Labour even if it lost it's majority in 2009 will have just been in for 12 years, if Labour had failed to get a majority at the 1997 General Election it is quite probable that there would have been PR as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats by a party that would perhaps feel that after 18 years without a majority carrying on past 20 years and perhaps having been unable to get 40%+ of the vote since 1970 might have decided it was in their interest.

[tapestry]

By me Andrew on CH. No one takes the trouble of informing us what really goes on so we have to work it out.

If you accept Lance Price's evidence that Blair was not able to alter Labour policy on Europe without letting Murdoch know first, that suggests that Murdoch's primary political interest is the EU, and the reason could well be self interest.

The EU could use Competition Rules to reduce Murdoch's dominance of British sport, TV and media - especially the Premier League where he makes big money worldwide.

His ability to lever into and out of power any politican he likes, is used not to advance any political causes for their own sake but with his business interests in mind. It's the way the Murdoch family business has been built - ever since Keith Murdoch played media ball with Lloyd George in WW1.

Other than that, we know that Murdoch has been singing Gordon Brown's praises a long time. Now Brown's in trouble, Murdoch's out there in force to rescue him.

If you don't weant to put 2 and 2 together, don't. If you do, Brown is the EU's preferred next PM, so he gets Murdoch. What Brown might have offered the EU, we don't know, but it won't be miniscule. Could it be the Euro?

[Ted]

MH - the view when we voted last December was that the best we could hope for next election was a small Labour majority or hung parliament because of the huge swing required to take Tories into majority. Most commentators thought it would take two elections with Tory advance in both to get a majority.
At the time Mr Blair had let his house out on a lease till 2008 (his intended departure date) and Labour was continuing to poll at its election share or higher.
Our advance in the polls after DCs election, David Davis & co's dogged destruction of Charles Clarke matched with DCs astutue widening of the Blair/Party split through principled opposition, and happily Prescott's own self imposed scandal pushed Labour down and caused the panic that led to the botched coup and Blairs decision to go early.
I think "Princess" Dave has reason to be happy.

[Andrew]

"If you don't weant to put 2 and 2 together, don't. If you do, Brown is the EU's preferred next PM, so he gets Murdoch. What Brown might have offered the EU, we don't know, but it won't be miniscule. Could it be the Euro?"

No offence, but you're letting your imagination run riot. 2 and 2 together make 4, not 4000.

Note that the Sun is taking a pro-Brown line, but the other MMM (Murdochmoronmedia) isn't. If there was a concerted campaign, it wouldn't just be the Sun.

As for the rest, you've absolutely no link to the EU whatsoever, just pure speculation.