Tebbit: Bedrock Tories are unhappy at Project Cameron and floaters are unconvinced

Accusing the Conservative Party of clutching favourable opinion polls like a baby grasps for a dummy, Lord Tebbit issues his strongest warning yet to David Cameron in this week's Spectator (not yet online).  Describing the Bromley & Chislehurst result as humiliating for the Conservative Party the former Tory Chairman calls for David Cameron to be more worried about the increasing number of stay-at-home voters - the 'none of the aboves'.  The rise of 'floating non-voters' was recently analysed by YouGov's Stephan Shakespeare on ConservativeHome.

Noting declining turnout at elections Lord Tebbit writes:

"It has not been the fringe parties, or even to any great extent the Liberal Democrats, who have been piling up the votes. It is ‘None of the Above’ whose supporters are swelling in numbers. They first broke through the 10 million barrier in 1970, and in the last three elections have averaged 16 million. For all sorts of reasons, something like 7 million electors opt out of the political process, but the other 9 million are neither apathetic, nor stupid nor uninterested in what is happening to their country."

Norman Tebbit estimates that both Tories and Labour have a bedrock support of about 8.5 million voters each and they then can win up to 5.5 or so million floating voters.  The present Conservative strategy, he believes "is eroding its ultra-loyalist bedrock vote, while doing nothing to entice back its thoughtful erstwhile supporters":

"They want to know if Mr Cameron has bought into the Blairite, ever-expanding, ever more costly, interfering nanny state, or whether he has proposals to strengthen family life, restore discipline in schools, combat crime, deal with the now almost universally recognised dangers of multiculturalism and the unlimited immigration of unassimilable minorities, raise standards in schools and the NHS, and bring back home powers lost to Brussels."

Lord Tebbit goes on to attack the A-list.  Cameron's Conservatives give the impression, he writes, "that respectable working- and lower-middle-class supporters in the suburbs, country towns and villages are not quite good enough for the new ‘A’ list, Notting Hill party":

"Bromley suggests that while Conservative voters do believe that the new Conservative party is unlike the one they used to support, Mr Cameron’s target Labour and Liberal voters do not, and the Tories are in danger of missing the electoral opportunity of a lifetime. The Blair government is failing on every front. Like a victim of Ebola fever, the vital organs of government are ceasing to function. It can tax and it can spend — but it is unable to deliver. There is a deep longing for something better, but it has to be a lot better than what is on offer today."

Another Thatcherite Lord Bell is also unhappy with David Cameron.  The London Evening Standard quotes Mrs Thatcher's advertising guru as saying: "David Cameron has convinced the public that he is different to their normal expectation of a Tory leader, brilliantly done... [But] he has not changed the Conservative Party, the party is exactly the same as it was."  The Standard goes on to suggest that Labour is planning a summer offensive against David Cameron.  ConservativeHome spotlighted the likely contours of that campaign earlier today.

Comments

[MH]

Spot on Norman. Unless there is a radical change from the lad Dave, I shall be staying at home for the first time since 1988 when I became eligible to vote.

[Jaz]

When will Tebbit understand like all the rest of the old-cabinet tories that their time is up. They did good work, we understand this, but a new age is upon us, an age of blogs, rumours and personality warfare.

Because of the thatcherite stubbornness that Tebbit is displaying, the public hated us for a decade, Cameron HAS to take this line because of people like Tebbit who continually keep on spouting that Tories should cut taxes to the lowest levels, scrap the NHS and hence spending all around. This isn't an election winner.

The new generation of Tories, like myself will succeed in getting to power, and people continually barking at Cameron will not help achieve this goal.

It's a tough road, and the Conservative party KNEW that electing D.C. as leader would mean hard measures and softening of right-wing policies that were deeply unpopular.

[Martin Curtis]

Actually part of Dave's plan is to target non-voters, to reinvigorate them to get out and vote Conservative, it has been repeated by a number of Shadow Ministers so Norman Tebbit may be wrong on that one.

His comments about the A-List are spot on however. I accept the reasons for the A-List, but it has failed to address one of the biggest negative perceptions of the party. First time in about 10 years I have agreed with Norman Tebbit about anything!!

[changetowin]

Has Tebbit been watching politics since 1997? The solutions he cites - school discipline, limiting migration etc. - are what he have tried to death. Hague, IDS and Howard all went down this road. The simple fact was that we were much more right wing than the general public. This caused us to be a rump party flatlining at around 30%. In December last year our members, fed up with losing, mandated our leader to change the party. In the space of six months our fortunes have been transformed. Where once our prospects of winning an election were seen as slight, we are now seriously talked about as general election winners. We're consistently ahead in the polls and won 40% in the local government elections. Tebbit may grumble, but people across the country are looking at the Conservatives afresh. At our best we're a broad and generous party. I'm behind the leader and believe that our party's best days are ahead. Don't fall for eloquently worded pleas to take us back to 1997-2005.

[Chad]

"When will Tebbit understand like all the rest of the old-cabinet tories that their time is up"

To be fair, that's only true for eurosceptics. Cameron has made a point of bringing back all the 'old-cabinet' europhiles.

[leon]

"Describing the Bromley & Chislehurst result as humiliating for the Conservative Party the former Tory Chairman calls for David Cameron to be more worried about the increasing number of stay-at-home voters - the 'none of the aboves'."

Interesting he says that because it could be argued that if the local association had chosen an 'A Lister' they might have fared better against the Lib Dems given their choice of candidate...

In a way the Bromley & Chislehurst marginal victory was a victory for the A List, if only the local Tories would but realise it (and choose more wisely in future).

[TimC]

Although it doesn't do a lot to give an impression of unity, Cameron can be assured that if Heffer and Tebbit are sniping, he is likely to be on the right track.

[Gareth]

Tebbit showing the same loyalty he's shown to every leader since Thatcher. As I recall he even turned against IDS. If Tebbit thinks we're on the wrong track, we must be doing something right.

[William Norton]

Leon: Interesting he says that because it could be argued that if the local association had chosen an 'A Lister' they might have fared better against the Lib Dems given their choice of candidate...
In a way the Bromley & Chislehurst marginal victory was a victory for the A List, if only the local Tories would but realise it (and choose more wisely in future).

I've no axe to grind one way or the other on this point, and I'm agnostic on the A List but I'd disagree with this comment.

My impression from spending a fair amount of time in Bromley during the campaign is that Lib Dems got traction from 2 points: the non-campaign by Labour which gave them a massive boost from all left-of-centre voters; and the damaging attack line on the "three jobs" angle. The localness or otherwise of the Tory candidate was not as significant as those two. If we'd put in an A Lister it would have given the Lib Dems a third angle (Tories parachute in an obvious outsider) and they'd have got the other 700 votes to win.

[Chad]

"Tebbit showing the same loyalty he's shown to every leader since Thatcher. As I recall he even turned against IDS. If Tebbit thinks we're on the wrong track, we must be doing something right. "

Well to be fair agaon, only one of the past 5 Tory leaders has actually won a general election, so maybe Tebbitt just has high standards!

[malcolm]

Like Peter Lilley, John Redwood and IDS Chad?The party seems well balanced to me.I do have some sympathy with Tebbits view and he's unarguably right about the 'stay at homes'.Almost a third of our populations seem to have absolutely no interest in any political party.I do wonder that if politics was more straightfoward and less concerened with spin some of these people might become enthused by politics again.
Cameron has nevetheless succeeded in making the Tory brand less toxic than it was and many people of my acqaintance are proud to advertise their support of the Conservative party for the first time in years.

[Primrose League Player]

Odd to go on about immigration - We can now get our cars cleaned and have better service generally because of the massive influx of European workers. The majority of the voters are delighted by this development, it is about time Tories started extolling the benefits of a free market.

[Prodicus]

The project has to be to bring over those who vote for 'none of the above', which they (now) would not, under the Tebbit electoral strategies. Cameron will probably attract more of those than Brown (or whoever) given that Labour's time is, more or less, up. Those votes, plus those of people who do vote but take Cameron simply to be 'a better Blair'... 'give him a chance' etc... would swing it. The old guard will vote anything but Labour and, numerically, that's enough to give us the win. Softlee, softlee...

[John Hustings]

"As I recall he even turned against IDS. If Tebbit thinks we're on the wrong track, we must be doing something right."

To take these two sentences to their logical conclusion, you must believe that every leader since Thatcher was "doing something right".

Is that what you think, Gareth?

[Stephen Tolkinghorne]

"In a way the Bromley & Chislehurst marginal victory was a victory for the A List, if only the local Tories would but realise it (and choose more wisely in future)."

The Tories did so well previously in Chislehurst because Eric Forth was so well liked and respected as an excellent MP, a maverick who was honest, spoke his mind, a genuine conservative of the old school variety, and acted in the interests of his constituents. Bob Neill was simply an outsider, with no roots in the area, who had nothing of any interest to say, and to whom people were indifferent. A-listers are anything but that which Eric Forth was, and if you'd have planted in an A-lister, people would simply have been turned off even more. We'd now be looking at the latest smug, grinning Lib-Dem toadie being inaugurated into Parliament.

[Gareth]

Not at all John. That is to ascribe a logic and consistency to Tebbit's criticisms that they certainly do not warrant.

[Caroline Best]

It's worth remembering that we lost heavily in 1997 because of our own perceived (and real in cases) incompetence and sleaze together with New Labour's neutered appeal.

We did not lose because we were perceived to be 'too right wing', but were simply a discredited political force, worn down by length of time in office, scandals etc.

Frankly the same was true in 2001 and there was little we could say to reconnect with the electorate.

Of course we need to broaden our appeal, but whilst it's sensible to sound moderate and considered, we shouldn't be afraid of our own shadow.

[leon]

@ William Norton, fair comment and probably right, I was giving the impression an (non Tory) outsider might get.;)

[Chris Hughes]

Lord Tebbit feels Cameron's strategy will alienate the "ultra-loyalist bedrock vote" but I'm not all that convinced it will. The "Tory Right" knows this is their party, and will be patient with David Cameron because they want power back, they believe in loyality, they do want some degree of change, and finally they are not ignorant to the fact that DC was voted in with a large majority and so deserves a chance.

Lord Bell however complains that Cameron "has not changed the Conservative Party, the party is exactly the same as it was.". This is where the offense lies, because it contradicts all that I've just said. The Conservative party has always been a big tent with many factions and it should always remain so. The Tory Right will remain quiet and loyal if all they face is the backbenches. It is when you try and purge them, and tell them that this isn't their party any more, that trouble will start

[Really]

When will Tebbitt come out of the last century into this? David Cameron is reaching out to those stay at homes you will never vote for us while we continue to pick holes in each other. We all have skills and experience which we bring to the aid of the party. The A list is only a screening process which highlights the plus points of a number of good candidates. People will elect those who they feel will represent them well. Wider inclusion of supporters in selection can only improve matters.

[Oberon Houston]

Yawn. Tebbit is behaving more like Grandpa Simpson every day. When will the media reaslise that his views are of little interest to most party members, and almost none of the general public at large other than to underline the positive aspects of Project Cameron.

[Francis]

I hope Norman reads this blog, he might learn alot. As a young person who could be considered to be on the right of the Liberal Democrats or on the left on the Conservative party the election of David Cameron helped me to realise that this was "my" party. If Norman reads this blog perhaps he could comment on the fact we tried the above the last time against an unpopular government and failed miserably. We know the Conservative party is "tough on crime," perhaps he should realise that we want to know what you are going to do about other issues such as the Environment. Maybe he should tell us what he would do on this issue and others like poverty? Why do the Tory right consider immigration such a big deal anyway?

[David Belchamber]

It is immensely encouraging to hear Francis say: "As a young person....the election of David Cameron helped me to realise that this was "my" party".
There is no doubt that, whatever his perceived faults, DC is getting through to a whole raft of new voters.
However, I see no reason why, in so doing, it appears necessary to antagonise the traditional tory core voters. They have votes as well and surely all one has to do is periodically to promise them that policies on the core issues will be made public at the proper time.
I fully accept the argument that Nulab will pinch any good idea and claim it as their own; this is why I keep on suggesting that the tories promise competence in management, knowing full well that is one thing Nulab is incapable of pinching.

[Michael McGowan]

The "positive aspects of Project Cameron" look as if they will amount to no more than perpetuating the wasteful authoritarian failures of Labour. Cameron has little or nothing to offer that Labour isn't already offering and like Blair, he talks out of both sides of his mouth at once. The people who will be WORST affected by his brand of Toryism are those at the bottom of the pile because he is in thrall to vested interests in the public services and the media. I certainly wouldn't vote Labour but I have no enthusiasm for seeing a Harold MacMillanesque charlatan take Blair's place.

[Andrew Woodman]

Before we go painting lord Tebbit as the antichrist, it might be worth considering a few of his views. Is our rise in the polls due entirely to Labour switching or an increasing Labour no vote without switching. Are we small state or going to follow the Blair line of telling people what lifestyle to lead.

Lord Tebbit has supported some Cameron announcements such as hug a hoodie so he's not instinctively against everything Cameron comes out with. He is merely warning that the right can't be taken the granted like Labour took the left for granted. I don't know whether Lord Tebbit is right or not but I think it's all too easy to dismiss everything he says, because he's seen as the right wing target to upset to show you've changed.

[Richard]

"They want to know if Mr Cameron has bought into the Blairite, ever-expanding, ever more costly, interfering nanny state, or whether he has proposals to strengthen family life, restore discipline in schools, combat crime, deal with the now almost universally recognised dangers of multiculturalism and the unlimited immigration of unassimilable minorities, raise standards in schools and the NHS, and bring back home powers lost to Brussels."

Could modernisers really disagree with this?

"The simple fact was that we were much more right wing than the general public."

On immigration and law and order the Tories had an opinion poll lead. Their problem was that they focussed too much on these issues.

"The majority of the voters are delighted by this development, it is about time Tories started extolling the benefits of a free market."

The majority of voters remain opposed to mass immigration if the polls are anything to go by.

[Esbonio]

I agree that Norman Tebbit is spot on. Both the Tory Party and the country owe him a great deal. The almost casual lack of respect some appear to have for him is both revealing and disturbing.

[Michael McGowan]

Richard, you ask "Could the modernisers really disagree with this?" This isn't, as you think, a rhetorical question. They do disagree with this.....vehemently. Read Portillo's columns in the Sunday Times. If I were Brown, I would call Dave's bluff over "stability before tax cuts". I would announce substantial tax rises on the pretext that they are needed to balance the books and dare Cameron to oppose them. He couldn't do so credibly of course because he has rejected tax cutting as a means of stimulating growth; and has refused to countenance any reduction in public spending. So Brown can just carry on putting up taxes and spending and Cameron has no credible comeback against him.

[Tam Large]

Absolutely right Norman. Thank God there is still at least one real Conservative left.

As for Cameron pitching to get the votes of the floaters by his current antics: they haven't voted for Blairism, so why should they vote for a soppy look-alike in the form of the Cameron Party. (I no longer refer to the current lot as the Conservative Party - it is something else entirely.)

[Godwinson]

Norman Tebbit is of course, as usual right on the button. It is devestating to read all these liberal comments and to realise that we are all hell bent on a Blairite Mark II program. Cameron has the disadvantage of a Scots name in a mounting anti-Scots era, add to this the Nanny factor, a blithe neglect of market realities, and the dedication to information/propaganda/disinformation manipulation and the Blair Mark II machine emerges.
The whole population is sick of shadow play and phantasms and longs for real leaders. The play for the hoodies, state clients, and ruling elite political metropolitan luvies will end in tears. The EUphiliacs seem to be in the ascendant along with the Blairite love of celebrities
I am a supporter of the "None of the above" party and will remain so until Westminster and the ruling elite are reformed, along with this ruined Constitution, education, legal system, law enforcement and immigration control look like being managed for the people, and not the politicos.

[Esbonio]

Well said Michael, Tam and Godwinson.

I cannot see how any so called Conservative who lived through the 70s and 80s could justify distancing the party from not only from what the Thatcher administration achieved in those years but also what it stood for (freedom, enterprise, opportunity for all, and law and order to name but a few things). If this distancing is merely an electoral pose it is not only hypocritical but is unlikely to work. If however Project Cameron really is a break and rejection of the past (which is the only conclusion I can draw from its ardent supporters here and elsewhere) then I see little or no reason to vote for it.

[Chris Ryder]

I'm with Godwinson on this as I to was once a 'younger voter' when Blair came to power and I can say with a few more years under my belt I am damned if I'll elect another Blair clone of a government that turns out as shallow and media spun as this one were presently lumbered with, but I am shocked and surprised at the dissmisive manner Lord Tebbit is being regarded by his own party which only makes me question what the Conservatives really are these days, that they seem bent on trashing the views of anyone who doesn't fit the 'new' age Tory agenda.

[Matt Wright]

Although I admire and respect Lord Tebbit I do not agree with much of his analysis. Voters did not like our shrill aproach and times have moved on. I get around everyday talking to a good cros section of people and there has been a marked improvement in the ordinary voters reponse. DC has had a positive impact. However to be evenly balanced in my analysis I do think that our party needs to reach beyond Blair style spin and understand there is a vein of "anti-politics politics" nowadays. Sometimes our good messages, as a renewed party, are being lost because of spin. As to the Bromley result I do not agree with Leon that this means we should have chosen an A-lister. I strongly suspect we would have lost the seat if we had!

Matt

[e]

Chris

I was at Oxford in the early 80s. My experience then was that most undergraduates (including myself as a Tory voter) were at best embarrassed and at worst suspicious of those who took politics too seriously. My point is that I suspect Lord Tebbit's views are more likely to be in tune with the generaltiy than the minority of supporters. Either that or Turkeys really do vote for Xmas.

[Alex]

I have huge respect for Norman Tebbit. BUT... It was only a few months ago that DC was elected overwhelmingly to be the new Tory leader. He had a clear strategy ('Change to win'), and since then he has been developing his themes carefully as he pledged he would. There's a long way to go, so quite rightly he is keeping details of policy rather non-specific until nearer the next general election.

Can't the old guard (Tebbit, Tim Bell, etc) just be a little more supportive (ie quieter) and let DC get on with his strategy (ie what he was elected to do)? No leader is perfect, and it's certainly a testing position for anyone - but he is doing a pretty good job so far, I would say. What we don't need is noises off which give Labour the ammunition and the encouragement they otherwise wouldn't have.

In other words, Norman, Tim etc - get with the programme!

[Stephen Tolkinghorne]

"I have huge respect for Norman Tebbit. BUT... It was only a few months ago that DC was elected overwhelmingly to be the new Tory leader. He had a clear strategy ('Change to win'), and since then he has been developing his themes carefully as he pledged he would."

Sorry to drag the discussion back to 'old' topics, but does his clear strategy involve the immediate withdrawal from the EPP, which is what he told those who actually turned up to the hustings debates were told ? Unfortunately he didn't have any policies in the leadership contest ("It's too early to make detailed policy commitments"(Cameron, 2005), and he's making it up as he goes along. Oh, and reneging on the only one he did make.

[Aaron]

Lord Tebbit is a champion of the Tory Right, was a wonderful minister and so much could be learnt from his honest and robust approach. BUT, this is a new era, and I like the touchy feely Cameron Party - so do the public. Change must go further, deeper (not faster) and Conservatives should feel obliged to have faith in the new direction of the Party. Time has told us that the message of the last 9years has been fundementally wrong and unwanted - only time will tell us if Cameron is on the right path. I think his greatest challenge will be on policy and of course dragging all sides of the party with him. He is the party's elected leader, Norman Tebbitt does make good points, but this is 2006 and Conservative MUST develop and alter it's direction if we are to acheive power - just as it has done throughout the 20th Century. Remember, Mrs Thatcher was no old school, tough the line Tory.

[Richard]

"In other words, Norman, Tim etc - get with the programme!"

To be fair, as someone mentioned above, Tebbit did back Cameron on the hoody issue. This shows that he isn't being oppositional for the sake of it.

[es]

I was surprised by the latitude Lord Tebbit gave Cameron over his Alice in Wonderland hoodie speech. Violent crime is getting worse and worse throughout our country. I may have mentioned this before but it bears repeating becuase I was so shocked when I heard the news. I will not provide all the gory details of how awful life is in parts of this country today but recently the placid child of a friend of mine was brutally attacked by a gang of youths. As I said I will not give you the full details, but I suspect the person in question will never fully recover from the experience.

[LondonTory06]

I only wish Norman would use his not inconsiderable skills for the benefit of the Party. He knows only too well the potential damage that this kind of article will do just at the start of the silly season. He was a brilliant Party Chairman and had a great feel for the right phrase that connected with the electorate. But that was in the 1980s... and he was up against Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock not Tony Blair.

None of the above means that Norman could not use his skills to support the Party - or at least those aspects of the current approach that he does back - but this constant belittlement of every leader since Lady Thatcher is frankly embarrassing. I think many people have their doubts about how the A list process has worked out in practice but very few (including sadly Norman T) doubt that something has to be done to alter the balance of our Parliamentarians.

[Donal Blaney]

While I don't dispute that DC said he would change the Party's image and the way it selected its candidates, where did he say in his campaign or manifesto that he would change the Party's policies and principles on issues such as health/education vouchers, environmental policy and so on. I worry that a mantra is chanted back at those uncomfortable with some of DC's moves that he was elected on a mandate of change to win and therefore if he is criticised, then he is being criticised improperly...

[Jonathan Sheppard]

For those who didnt get chance - have a listen to Lord Tebbit at www.toryradio.com - some of the things he mentions in the artcile are also covered in the interview.

[Chris Ryder]

Aaron you say..
this is a new era, and I like the touchy feely Cameron Party - so do the public

So do you really believe Aaron this will continue should DC get into number ten, or will it get as I suspect a good kick through the back window into the Rose Garden the moment the real pressure of hard decisions have to be made?, plus on this thing of the public up for the 'touchy feely thing' I myself being a member of the public don't recall saying anything such thing, plus I'm not likely to either.

Alex you say...

Can't the old guard (Tebbit, Tim Bell, etc) just be a little more supportive (ie quieter) and let DC get on with his strategy (ie what he was elected to do)? No leader is perfect, and it's certainly a testing position for anyone - but he is doing a pretty good job so far, I would say. What we don't need is noises off which give Labour the ammunition and the encouragement they otherwise wouldn't have.

Alex I was told the Tories are a 'broad church' of individuals and if so, why shouldn't Lord Tebbit not be able to have his say, for better or worse, or should all the 'old guard Tories' be muzzled up now case they 'dare' to step out of line and question the modern Cameron Party?

[Chad]

..but back in reality, have the party really moved forward in the eyes of the public?

Look at YouGov poll for July 2006.

When asked, if on balance, Labour had been honest and trustworthy only 19% said yes. Phew, good.

However, in the follow up question, only 21% believed that a Conservative government would be honest and trustworthy.

Pretty much the same in that only 1 in 5 people think either Labour or the Tories are trustworthy.

Despite all the sleaze, all the corruption, voters don't see the Tories as any more trustworthy than Labour.

Clearly, the Tories have not benefitted in the eyes of the public from all this Labour sleaze.

[sean dunne]

Lord Tebbit wrote:
"They want to know if Mr Cameron has bought into the Blairite, ever-expanding, ever more costly, interfering nanny state, or whether he has proposals to strengthen family life, restore discipline in schools, combat crime, deal with the now almost universally recognised dangers of multiculturalism and the unlimited immigration of unassimilable minorities, raise standards in schools and the NHS, and bring back home powers lost to Brussels."

That sounds perfectly reasonable to me and very much reflects what the bloke on the back of the Clapham omnibus (and every pub I visit) is saying every day.
Just what are Cameron’s policies on these matters - apart from ‘hugging a hoody’.

[Matt Davis]

"The new generation of Tories, like myself will succeed in getting to power" - Jaz

Errr how exactly Jaz? You may hate Lord Tebbit and want the Conservatives to simply be New Labour with a Blue rosette but Tebbit is correct when he points out that electorally so far that strategy is not working. Cameron is blithely presuming that the activist base and core vote of the party will either go along with him just to see a Conservative Govt, even if that govt isn't actually conservative at all, whilst he merrily picks up all of the floating voters and disillusioned New Labour ones. The electoral evidence so far is that that is just not happening and that our core vote are staying at home or voting UKIP or even, god help them, BNP. At the same time despite the opinion polls, which are not very accurate it would seem, the floating voters are not coming our way at all. The Conservatives are a party of the right and of tax cuts and a small state. If we cease to be those things then we will cease to have any unique selling point to a wary electorate and they will view us accordingly.

[Opinicus]

I think Tebbit's analysis is correct. To win the next election Dave needs to win not the floating voters of the last 2 elections but the stay at homes. These are voters put off by sleaze and spin, who do not see any improvement in public services for the huge rise in taxes, who have given up on politics. These voters do not want a Blair clone; they want a straight talker who will energise them with the possibility that something genuinely can be done to make Britain better. The situation is quite analogous to Lady T's win in 1979 after years of Heath/Wilson incompetence. This is a time for political courage and forthrightness not for PC policies and PC candidates. Dave has got to 38% by being nice and pink of cheek. To get to 42% he is going to need to lead his Party into policies that offer the prospect of improvement.

[Jaz]

Matt, the strategy will work, 6 months of being leader there has been massive progress. To remove a leader like Tony Blair, which people have much trust in is a difficult task, Cameron out-polls tony Blair and his supposed successor Gordon Brown.

I do not believe David Davis, or any other conservative leader would have been able to pull of the "softening" required to win an election. Normal people think that a Tory party is better than a Labour party, and that is a success. (see the latest ICM poll)

DC cannot, should not and probably won't talk immigration for another year or so, to do will mean one thing, "old tory". The old tory aka Thatcherite brand is almost poison and it's an achievement to remove that Stigma.

Sleeze and Spin, I agree, Cameron needs to do more, act less slippery, but lets be honest, in no way has it meant an increase In voting New Labour or LD, rather just people still staying at home.

UKIP/BNP issues will be dealt with closer to the election, we only need one good immigration policy, one good European policy to make these people come back as always with extremist mid-term issues.

[roy]

Just like to add my name to those supporting Norman's views 100%. It is depressing to see the people who keep saying "we need to change", "its a different era" etc. If they like the present state of play so much, then forget it and just vote Blair back in again. That's why its been a different era for the last eight years. Its time to get back to the true Tory values - and frankly, if the public dont want to vote for them, then its their loss (and ours too, I admit).

[Chris Ryder]

Dead right Jonathan spot on!, the PC and spin nonsense has to go, but what DC offers has to be robustly carried through with sound policys and not just end up being a leader of a party as Matt Davis says, New Labour with a Blue rosette.

[Ted]

If I was just a bit of a sceptic I might consider Tebbit is being a bit Machiavellian here.
Labour are planning a summer offensive against Cameron on basis he is "lipstick on a pig"; that he is true blue conservative in blue/green clothing. What better time for Tebbit to come out attacking him and in doing so undermining Gordons latest attacks?

We've just gone up in the latest ICM polls to 39% from 36% last time so DC is doing well, especially attracting back our female support. Tebbit has never accepted the coup against the Lady and has a good point in the way Major's government in part went tooo much over to the Heseltine/Hurd/Clarke agenda (especially as he supported JMs leadership campaign). But it is nearly two decades since he left front line politics and while he remains a voice for some in the party he is less and less relevant to the real day in day out political battle.

[Chris Ryder]

Ted, amongst all these wonderful poll figures here there and everywhere(which Lord T deals with) those who's he remains a voice for are believe it or not ordinary people just like me the voter!, so by your assumption I guess that must mean I'm equally less relevant by agreeing with him? ..well we'll see come GE day!

[provincial thicko]

Norman Tebbit is saying the obvious and the sooner the smart, metroploitan PR spivs realise it, the better for the state of politics in our country. At the moment, nobody living in the real world outwith the M25 believes a word spoken in Westminster, and that is very dangerous. DC needs to present an honest face to the electorate and he won't do that by being Blair Mk 2!

[Ted]

Chris Ryder

I recognise he is a voice for some in our party, and maybe more than I'd expect, but he has been detached from the daily grind of government and trying to build a strong centre-right coalition since 1987. We have a strong core vote, but members voted for change by quite a large margin, so not as wedded to the "core conservatism" as many thought. David Davis was a strong candidate, I liked Liam Fox but I hoped that in chooosing someone from a new generation we could finally after two decades of internicine warfare move on from the political battles of the 1970's & 80's.

I don't agree with all that DC proposes, I am still concerned about the competence of CCHQ but I'm willing to wait for the outcome of our two year re-build and the judgement of the electorate. I am one who doubts we can win next time and think its a two election strategy we need so a competent young leader that can take us forward at next election and stays on to win the next is preferable to the merrry-go-round we have had since 1997.

[christina speight]

Jaz wrote "people like Tebbit who continually keep on spouting that Tories should cut taxes to the lowest levels, scrap the NHS and hence spending all around"

That's plain untruths. The wet wishy washy Camerooons who have made the running on this thread will ensure another Labour government because like many I shall abandon the Conservatives and, as someone points, out - NOT VOTe or VOTE UKIP or VOTE BNP.

Immigration DOES matter. It's causing the housing shortage for a start; it's overwhelming the NHS; it's causing social unrest

[Chris]

"The simple fact was that we were much more right wing than the general public."

On immigration and law and order the Tories had an opinion poll lead. Their problem was that they focussed too much on these issues.

"The majority of the voters are delighted by this development, it is about time Tories started extolling the benefits of a free market."

The majority of voters remain opposed to mass immigration if the polls are anything to go by.
Richard, and I haven't seen any indication that we are moving away from our stance of being tough on crime and mass immigration. So far not much on immigration (besides Damian Green saying Reid isn't doing enough), but on crime not only have we had "hug a hoodie" but we've pledged to build more prisons and to scrap automatic parole.

[Chris Palmer]

There seems to be some confusion once again over why we lost the last election (and the two previous.) It was not because of policy but imagine and campaigning tactics.

[Chris Palmer]

Sorry, appauling spelling once again. Should read "but image and campaigning" above.

[Chris Ryder]

Ted, he may well be detached from the daily grind of government, but that sure doesn't make his opinions no 'less relevant' as you implied, as here's a man a former chairman of your party as well as former Minister of the crown, so he's been there and done it all and to dismiss him will be the Tories own mistake, so I find it astonishing that someone of his high standing within your party is being all but sidelined of his opinions simply because as I see it what he says doesn't sit or fit nicely with this new cameron era, when in all reality I'm afraid Lord T, does at the end of the day truely and accurately reflect the views of voters like me! I'm not saying that the Tories should not move on into a new era but it's the method by which it's heading that doesn't feel right, it resembles to much like 'Blair repackaged' and that bothers me and I'm just not convinced it will succeed to get you a Tory government of tomorrow.

[Anon]

Lord Tebbitt has interesting views, but he left the House of Commons 19 years ago. The world has moved on. He is of the same generational difference to Cameron as Churchill or Eden were to Thatcher. Listen to him with respect, by all means, but do not take his work as gospel.

[Richard]

"Richard, and I haven't seen any indication that we are moving away from our stance of being tough on crime and mass immigration."

Neither have I. I was just just countering the views of modernisers who think we should.

[changetowin]

"Its time to get back to the true Tory values - and frankly, if the public dont want to vote for them, then its their loss (and ours too, I admit)."

Roy - you've summed up the position of the 'last century Tories'.

[Rog]

Can I just agree with Norman Tebbit?

People are desperate for a straight-talking, believable, honest alternative to Blair: someone who will stop the wholesale acceleration of the country into the abyss.

Cameron just 'aint it.

He's a near carbon-copy of Blair, and that's exactly what people don't want!

With the right leader, the Conservatives (complete with old-fashioned, non-trendy values) would not be merely a few points ahead of NuLab, but absolutely wiping the floor with them.

I fear the next general election is going to be a tragically missed opportunity.

[Chris]

With the right leader, the Conservatives (complete with old-fashioned, non-trendy values) would not be merely a few points ahead of NuLab, but absolutely wiping the floor with them.
What is it that makes you think its simply a case of "one more push"? We've tried focussing on just core values for 3 elections now and have been slaughtered each time, something tells me doing more of the same isn't going to help.

One thing people forget when reading opinion polls is how few youths are actually questioned (I know I'm the only one out of everyone my own age with a yougov account for a start, and even I don't regularly answer the surveys). In my personal experience the youth vote is turning Tory, and its is this volte which we need to be most concerned with. Last year the majority of people I spoke to supported the Lib Dems or were ok with the status quo, now everyone is a supporter of Cameron. I can tell you that I'd be highly suprised if even one person has been asked a voting intention question by a polling group.

I voted for Cameron in the leadership election because I knew he would reach out and gain us supporters outside of our traditional scope. Sorry to put it bluntly, but people from Norman Tebbit's generation aren't going to be around for ever, its better that we lose a few core voters now and gain the youth vote than we rely on votes nearing their expiry date. Thats why issues important to youths should be top of the agenda, and topics such as the environment are important to many people.

[Denis Cooper]

Primrose League Player -

"Odd to go on about immigration - We can now get our cars cleaned and have better service generally because of the massive influx of European workers. The majority of the voters are delighted by this development, it is about time Tories started extolling the benefits of a free market."

It's about time Tories started recognising how many of our own people are not just getting extremely annoyed about uncontrolled mass immigration in theory, but are actually being hurt by it in practice.

There was an important article in yesterday's Telegraph:

"Immigration - how New Labour got the numbers completely wrong"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/26/ccjeff26.xml

"Adding insult to injury, the Prime Minister and his diminishing band of allies still seek to justify their negligence (it cannot be dignified as a policy) with bogus assertions about immigration's economic benefits, the validity of which not even a D-grade GCSE student would have trouble demolishing."

"But the idea that everybody benefits from mass immigration is a fallacy. Research by Professor George Borjas at Harvard University shows that in the long run it transfers wealth from grubby bedsits to swanky penthouses.

By lowering wages, migrants enable the middle classes to hire more home-caterers, dog-walkers, house-cleaners and hedge-trimmers for less cost than before. Very nice, if you're an investment banker in Kensington. Not so hot, if the last job you had was polishing his Bentley."

There's no shortage of Conservative voters in Kensington; it's in less affluent areas that people don't believe that the Tories will ever be on their side.

[Esbonio]

Chris's statement that "people from Norman Tebbit's generation aren't going to be around for ever" is undeniable. Clearly there is to some extent a generational issue at play. And of course no generation has a monopoly on wisdom although older generations by definition have more experience. However I think it would be a mistake to assume (if that is being implied) that the younger generation will somehow automatically prefer Project Cameron for presentational reasons or otherwise.

[Oberon Houston]

Here’s one test for Norman – compared to the last three elections (NOT Cameron):

1. Out of all the young voters who haven’t entertained the thought of voting for us before, how many would readily identify with Tebit’s key areas of policy and positioning and be tempted to switch or make a new vote if he were in charge?

2. Out of a group of mothers who previously voted Lib/Lab or not at all, how many would consider switching to the Tories if you were leader.

3. Out of a group of working age men who voted Lib-Lab before or not at all how many would vote Tory if he or his policies and direction were in charge?

4. How many pensioners who have NOT previously voted for us would do so?

Right, add all these up and subtract those ‘core voters’ who DIDN’T vote last time when WE WERE following the Tebbit line, but would if he were in charge of strategy.

The mans argument is back to front thinking – and what makes politics so interesting. I was once in a debating competition with the “This house would ban obese people wearing leggings ” and was unlucky enough to get the ‘against the house’ draw. I’d rather argue that corner than Tebit’s one on this.

[CJC]

Jaz - "The new generation of Tories, like myself will succeed in getting to power, and people continually barking at Cameron will not help achieve this goal."

And what, precisely, will you DO with this power when and if you get it? That has been the Blairite mantra, hasn't it - power for power's sake. And no idea what to do once in charge.

No wonder the 'none of the above' party is so successsful, faced with Blair Mark 1 and now Blair Mark 2...

[Jack Stone]

Far too much of the comments above are about yesteryear when they should be about tommorrow.
We need a party that reflects Britain here and now and as the answers to today`s problems not a party that reflects a Britain of twenty years ago and is still fighting battles long won or forgotten.
Norman Tebbitt and those who were with him at the top of the party in the eighties had the answers back then, they do not have them anymore. Time as moved on to another generation of leaders, born in another age with differant ideas. We need to back theses leaders and give them the opportunities that were give to Tebbitt and his generation to bring our country and our party the sucess they brought us.

[MH]

There is a certain arrogance and naiviety to some of these posts. Look, I don't like Dave and I don't like what he is doing to turn the Conservative Party into New Labour mark II. There are clearly very many Conservatives like me who are very disilliusioned. If we are ignored, we may well stay at home. Dave needs to do a much better job of balancing the competing tensions or he will flat on his face.

And I say that not as an old crusty, but a 35 year old who works in the City. Trust me, if you think people in the diehard areas are turned on by what's going on, you are very much mistaken. Our Association membership is down from 1250 to 950 year on year. Explain that.

[malcolm]

Bad chairman?Moribund executive?Not welcoming members? I heard recently that we had gained more than 25,000 members nationally since Camerons' election.Perhaps your ex- Associations problems are self created.

[Chris]

Malcolm, you also have to factor in how much easier it is to join through CCHQ than your local association. The only time you ever hear about joining the party from our local association is at election time, meanwhile you can simply point your browser at conservatives.com and join in a couple of minutes.

[James Maskell]

Tebbits right of course. Camerons ignoring the right wing. His hoodies speech went down like a lead balloon down here. The polls may be increasing but the only poll I care about right now is the one next year down here in Thanet. Cameron ignoring the right does not help us down in Thanet, especially not here in Cliftonville, one of the most deprived parts of the South East. Its not like the leadership havent seen Thanet for themselves. Davis and Maude have come down here. In fact Michael Howard came down here during last years election.

Places like Thanet need conservative Conservative policies. For the love of all things holy, Cameron, beef up the policies.

[Michael McGowan]

Sorry, MH, but even if you are 35 and work in the City, you must be a "crusty colonel" because you don't agree with the modernisers (aka really hip and happening people like Francis Maude). How dare you dissent from the new orthodoxy? What ever gave you the impression that this party believes in open debate and meritocracy? They haven't yet accused you of being racist, sexist and homophobic but give them time. Given their lack of "different ideas" from Tony Blair, they only have one option left: play the man, not the ball.

[MH]

Michael, how true.

[David Banks]

Glad to see Tebbit is playing the game , by stirring up some (non)controversy he gives the impression that the Tories are really changing. This reassures the public that Cameron is distancing us from images of the past and taking us into a bright new shiny future. Well done , Norman - most of the chattering classes will be thick enough to swallow this one whole.

[Conservative-man]

Interesting to see how the left of the party is adamant that we have tried all the old right wing policies - and given they have failed, we need to stop talking about immigration, law and order etc. Well, given we also advocated paltry tax cuts at the last election, I assume they will be wanting to ditch that policy in favour of change as well ...

[Chris]

Interesting to see how the left of the party is adamant that we have tried all the old right wing policies - and given they have failed, we need to stop talking about immigration, law and order etc. Well, given we also advocated paltry tax cuts at the last election, I assume they will be wanting to ditch that policy in favour of change as well ...
I wouldn't say thats the case at all, no one is advocating the scrapping of policies. I for one am pleased with what DC has done so far with making the party acceptable to the public again, and I trust that when the policy groups report (and they will be reporting right wing solutions) that he will adopt their suggestions.

As Tim is always keen to point out, the "AND theory" is critical to ensuring that our policies really are balanced. So far we've only been seeing the "AND" parts to our policies, which has made us look a bit soft. If you were however to presume that the majority of our 2005 manifesto pledges will remain alongside these new ideas then we would in fact have quite a moderate centre right program planned.

[Alex]

" With the right leader, the Conservatives (complete with old-fashioned, non-trendy values) would not be merely a few points ahead of NuLab, but absolutely wiping the floor with them."

Anyone in mind? Theodore Roosevelt, Maggie Thatcher and Winston Churchill are currently unavailable, I believe. Know anyone else on the Tory benches who would be doing better then DC right now? Not if you read (and believe) any of the opinion polls of the last six months.

The reality is that DC is the man. He was elected on a platform and he is doing it. Right here, right now and on Planet Earth! So give him some support - he may just succeed.

Chris Ryder - yes of course, it's a free country, and anyone should say whatever they like, including Norman Tebbit - or particularly Norman Tebbit! Healthy debate is excellent, eg this blog. But the main mission is to get a Tory government again, so senior Tories should be careful not to give NuLab too much ammunition about Tory splits etc. Blair loves to quote dissenters at DC during PMQs, so why give him the quotes?

[Rog]

But what use is a Conservative government, if it's almost indistinguishable from a NuLab one?

Can we have straightforward policies, without pandering to the doctrine of PC please? That's what's killing our country.

[deborah]

Primrose League Player -

"Odd to go on about immigration - We can now get our cars cleaned and have better service generally because of the massive influx of European workers. The majority of the voters are delighted by this development...."

Oh yes? I think not.
Actually, I think most people still clean their own cars and the people I speak to and are getting seriously worried about housing and the competition for work.

[Annabel Herriott]

I agree with Alex completely. At least the whinging is on CH and not "in public" where it would give the impression of a divided party. Nulab is divided enough for both of us.

[Phil]

I think Lord Tebbit has a point. We cannot afford to lose our core vote to the “Stay at Home” party or UKIP (if it were not for UKIP, I reckon we could have won another 30 seats at the last general election). The problem with trying to be liberal is that liberal voters are unconvinced and vote for the real thing anyway – the Lib Dems!

On the other hand, I have met people who previously seemed a bit antipathetic towards us who are now open to us because of Mr Cameron. But this doesn’t seem enough to win if we lose our core vote.

So perhaps the answer is to be right-wing on issues where voters tend to be right-wing, and more centrist where they are more centrist. That is, modernise by sharing and addressing voters' concerns about the environment and public services, and it is good DC talks about general well-being over mere financial gain, while being right-wing on social issues such as crime and law & order, and firmly Eurosceptic.

On being “right-wing”, we may need to stand up to the liberal elite and win the argument in public opinion, which must be possible as most people have at least some sense of right and wrong. “Hug a hoodie” while probably making some valid points, may have been a PR disaster, when we need to be tough on crime, and be on the side of those who do what is right. What about punishments that deter? To use some of Lord Tebbit’s questions, we need proposals “to strengthen family life, restore discipline in schools, combat crime….. and bring back home powers lost to Brussels"

[Jack Stone]

Cristine you say you may vote for the BNP. Therefore you must be a racist.You have no business being part of the Conservative Party if this is so.

[Chris Ryder]

Alex, I expect had Lord Tebbit made glowing remarks or references about Cameron and the 'new era conservative party' he would be your dearest bossom pal not batting an eyelid at his remarks, but as he points out a few facts which voters like me happen to agree with, he is to be kept in his box, just as you gave me the impression of in your intial comments!, even though 'now' (as were a democracy ..well almost) you suggest to me he should have his say except when teflon Tony and his cronies isn't looking or listening that is!, the idea that he has 'had his day' in conservative politics I'd imagine is extremely insulting given his long service to YOUR party, I think he deserves as all members do, to at least be listened to and comments to be duely taken on board which 'just' might help you see the error of your ways to win an election again, for me I'm just a humble voter so it matters not one fig to me whether the conservatives listens to critcism or not it'll be your election funeral not mine! ..oh and finally just so you know I am a 'younger' voter to!, the people who DC is trying to appeal to and as of yet he ain't chiming it with me!, so you tell me if the old guard can't or don't have an impact in todays politics!!

[Leslie Dellow]

In the 1980's the Conservatives won four elections in a row, not because they were wildly popular, but because Labour had made itself unelectable. The right wing of the Tory party seems to be so grateful to them for that, that now they want to return the favour.

If somebody has escaped from their home country because they are in fear of their lives, who wants to hear that they are going to get themselves sent straight back so that they can get themselves slaughtered? I am sure they will be eternally grateful to Norman Tebbit for the oppurtunity to do their little bit in helping him appear "tough on immigration". And if the Conservatives are going to cut taxes, where is the money going to come from? Either they will have to cut into something like the health service, or, because even the Conservatives know that is not eactly a vote winner, they will go for that old favourite defence spending - at the very moment that British troops are posted, under resourced, on every point of the globe. Still, I suppose they have always that hoary old one about cutting waste.

I don't particularly want Labour to win the next election, because any party which wins four elections on the trot becomes too arrogant for their own good. Like the Tories in their third term, Labour are already beginning to show signs of it. Nevertheless, unless the Conservatives find themselves a different hymn sheet, win they will.

[Sheila Fowler]

From a senior citizen/grandmother living in rural Herefordshire:-
Please,please Mr Tebbit take over as leader of Conservative party. You are the only man who has the right experience to get this country back on it's feet.