70% of Tory members expect David Cameron to be PM

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David Cameron's standing amongst the Tory grassroots rose again in the latest ConservativeHome monthly survey of the Tory grassroots.  After April's dip the number of people fairly satisfied (48%) and very satisfied (31%) rose for the second month in a row to 79%.  With the number fairly dissastisfied (6%) and very dissatisfied (14%) dropping to 20%, the Tory leader's net satisfaction rating increased to 59%.

70% of Tory members think it very or fairly likely that David Cameron will be Prime Minister after the next General Election.  20% think it fairly unlikely and 6% think it very unlikely.  These figures are down on the figures first collected after David Cameron was elected but only very modestly so.  They were compiled after the Bromley by-election result and after last Sunday's ICM poll which suggested a shrinking Tory lead.  A poll today - from BPIX - puts the Conservatives 10% ahead of Labour.

Tomorrow ConservativeHome will publish the more topical findings on attitudes to

(a) UK membership of the EU;
(b) Tory MEPs and the EPP; and
(c) the Scotland-England relationship.

* 1,519 members took part in the survey.  It was conducted on the 3rd to 6th July - a few days behind schedule.

Comments

[mattsimpson]

I think everyone is being a touch on the complacent side - there is still an absolute mountain to go in terms of the seats we actually have to win to get into Government.

[Jack Stone]

I would much rather have a party confident about its leadership and direction than one that is pessimistic and unsupportive of its leadership and the diection the party is heading.
I like the change that is happening that people are no longer afraid to stand up and say they are a Conservative.

[Paul Kennedy]

I'll second that Jack, although I'm not as clear in my mind regarding the direction of travel, although as the map becomes larger, I'm sure it will become more clear to me.;)

[Walaa Idris]

I like that we are finally coming out of hibernation. It feels great to be a Tory and I for one am very proud to be one. Lets be positive and optimistic "WE ARE GOING TO WIN THE NEXT ELECTION" lets together unite as one and work towards achieving that goal, possibly sooner than 2009.

[Old Hack]

Lets be positive and optimistic "WE ARE GOING TO WIN THE NEXT ELECTION" lets together unite as one and work towards achieving that goal, possibly sooner than 2009.

Agreed - so what about some decent policies then?

[Walaa Idris]

To Old Hack, in due time, timeing is everything, don't you agree!?

[Editor]

The italics are now off. Please (Old Hack!) preview your comment before posting to avoid distorting the thread and only I can correct a problem once it's started (Chris!). Thanks.

[Chris Palmer]

Someone forgot to turn off italics again!

I think that people in the Conservative party need to believe in, and support David Cameron's strategy. In the long term he is attempting to make the Conservative party re-electable - and he is right, the party must change (or at least be seen to have done so.)

[verulamgal]

He won't win if keeps on alienating his core voters.

[EML]

I think the so-called core voters should realise that the Conservative party needs to be a broad coalition in order to become a government in this country.

[MH]

I think we so-called core voters should be respected as having a right to our opinions and also to the opportunity to stay at home or vote for someone else.

[Jack Stone]

The core voters need to relise that vote Conservative and you will get some of what you want. Stay at home or vote for someone else you will get nothing of what you want, most of what you don`t and see your country continue down the road to disaster.

[MH]

Jack - we get some of what we want? No tax cuts. No education through selection (grammar schools). Attacks on the private sector. Politically correct candidates lists. Continuous abuse of the legacy that changed this country from 1979. With Cameron, you have Blue Labour rather than New Labour. Pull your head out of the sand and talk to a few party members who don't live in Norring Hill: the grass roots are getting increasingly uneasy.

[Walaa Idris]

Times are changing and so must we. Change is not always easy or smooth, but I trust Camron and belive that he will in time take us to number 10, and because we don't want then to be a weak goverment we must go there from a place of strenght, a place of unity and a place of one, to do that we need and must change.

[Jack Stone]

The grass roots may be restless but I don`t know what about. They knew when they elected David Cameron that he was going to change the party and he wasn`t going to fight the next election on the sort of right-wing platform that as lost us the last two elections.
They knew or should have that he was going to try to reach out to a wider electorate, moderate centre ground people who have seen the party to be too right-wing and obsessed by tax cuts, Europe and immigration.
David Cameron is doing just what he said he would do and change the party. I am afraid if people don`t like what his doing they can always get another leader but if they chose that option I can tell you they would also get another certain defeat and probably be sent into political oblivion for a generation.

[Ismail Keekeebhai]

It shows the number of Notting Hill Liberal Elitists toffs that view this website.

[Richard Carey]

the party must change (or at least be seen to have done so.)

I have to take issue with this comment - or at least try to clarify it!

I am guessing that you mean that we need to have genuinely re-applied our core principles to a new age. I am sure that you don't really mean that you want us to be "seen" to have changed without actually doing anything. However, in an age of unprecedented cynicism about politics, your comments could be seen in that way.

Change in the Party does need to go deeper into the Associations - at the very least, we need to embrace some changes in an operational sense, to ensure that campaigning activity in all our constituencies reaches the level of the very best.

[Matt Wright]

I think we do need to change. In fact to even have to argue this with some on here is rather worrying. I think it must be real change as people feel let down by politics and the spin that Blair has introduced into British life.

Matt

[Spencer]

I will never vote Conservative again as long as this spineless jelly fish is leading the party. He has alienated the core vote, he has failed to put policy on the table, he has failed with his A-list and he has failed to attract a meaningful amount of floating voters.

The party is now trendy, it’s cool to be a tory in truth we’re a laughing stock. Just look at the Bromley by election result, that formula will be repeated up and down the country.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5129524.stm

William Hague that’s who we need.