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Looks like a free paper, so most people will have voted by the time they see it anyway...

1. The Tory majority will be 5,009 (as against Eric Forth's 13,342)
2. 42.4% (Eric's 51.1)
3. Yes UKIP will come third.
4. Labour will win BG back.

Tory majority 2000
Share: 39%
UKIP: 3rd
Labour: lose deposit
Blanaeu Gwent: Independents win

1. 6,897
2. 45.6%
3. UKIP will be 4th
4. For westminster yes, for Assembley yes (but only by a small margin)

1.Conservative majority 4,000.
2.39-40% of vote.
4.Sadly yes Labour will win.
Bob Neill should have resigned his assembly seat and from the Health Authority.It has taken the gloss off what could and should have been a fine campaign.The Conservative party must always strive for the moral high ground.

Not going to predict 1)-depends on turn out
2) 47.1%
3) No, but Lib Dems will take second from us
4) Yes, good chance of taking back BG (first case of a sitting govt making a by-election gain since the early 80's!) but the assembly seat may be closer due to 'sympathy factor'

1. Tory majority 6,000
2. 49%
3. Yes
4. No, and No.

1. 1743
2. 39.6
3. Yes
4. Yes

The fiasco with Bob Neill's nomination paper was sloppy and incompetent. Bob Neill, no matter how he tries to get round it, made a false declaration on his nomination paper. He is lucky that the Quango is being abolished. It might just save the election from being voided. Also lucky that no-one appears to have notified "Votes Thrown Away" or he may even have seen the seat being awarded to the second place candidate - undoubtedly the Lib Dem.

Malcolm is quite right, the gloss will have been taken from the victory completely.

As for the idiot independent - he can moan to the Action Returning Officer all he likes. The only way to have a declaration declared null is through an election petition. The RO has no legal ability to do this.

1. 13,000
2. 47%
3. Yes
4. Yes

1 7,000
2 50.5%
3 Yes
4 No Westminster, No assembly

4 Yes Westminster is more a hope than prediction - think some Lab supporters might still want to give Blair a bloody nose and in privacy of booth might just do so.

If B&C had chosen one of final two A lister's my personal view is majority would have been bigger (though perhaps a few more discontented might have voted UKIP so share much the same)

So does this campaign prove that picking a 'local' over an a-lister was a good or bad thing?

The sub-editor on the Bromley Times appears to be a bit sloppy if their front-page spelling of pageant is anything to go by...

Too close to call on low turnout.

Liberals 3rd, Labour 4th!

stab in the dark time...

1. 3,500
2. 38%
3. No
4. Yes for Westminster, no for Cardiff Bay

1. 250,000
2. 86%
(because: I'm sure Bromleyites are too sensible to be fussed about either the shenanigans of another LibDem loser or a local paper desperately seeking publicity (well done them i say!)
3. What was the 3rd question? With their fellow traveller Chad, surely UKIP will be aiming for 2nd let alone 3rd place.
4. DVA, All the Way, yaa-ay. (ie Cardiff Bay no).

4)Yes Westminster, No Cardiff

The Ben Abbotts story is awful, shame it broke so late. Anyone know if we are using this against him outside polling stations or whether we are playing nice? one thinsg for certain is that if a re-run is needed Ben Abbotts will get slaughtered if we use this...

Yes & Yes

I'll have some of what you've been having this afternoon Mr Archer!

@Chris: what is Ben Abbott's story?

Just might though Chad - wondered if perhaps he'd rushed down to Bromley to finish the job Mr Abbott so signally failed to do and inhaled a few too many fumes....

Just might though? maybe it's something catching?

Just my thought too Chad... that's better.

Looked again at the Bromley Times frontpage -- "Voters may face second election", according to the layout, because "the Motor Pagent [sic] Revs Up". Is this another Iron Triangle thing that I can't understand, except more of an iron line?

Greetings from an old iron in Hackney.

Graeme, A blogger in Bromley by the name of Jaj has discovered something interesting about the images used in ben Abbotts literature. You can read about it Here. This comes after Iain Dale had uncovered the truth about ben helping the orphans...

Graeme - see Guido & link.

1. Conservative Majority 11,500
2. 48.8%
3. UKIP 4th (just)
4. No

1) 2250
2) 40.5%
3) No
4) Yes

1. 1200 max - it will be very very close.
2. 44%
3. Yes
4. Yes

1. 11,000
2. 55%
3. Yes
4. Labour shut out of both seats

1. 7000
2. 54%
3. UKIP 4th
4. No

i. Will be much closer than 2005.

ii. Postal votes apparently OK but turnout is lower than at Borough Elections.

iii. Some Tories swayed by Lib Dem tricks.

iv.Bromley Times is always anti-Tory and Duncan Borrowman seems to write some of the stories.

v. UKIP - 3rd
Lab or Green 4th
NF - 6th
Hemming-Clark (Ind) - 7th
English Democrats - 8th
Monster Raving Loonies - 9th
Nick whatshisgreekname - 10th
Money Reform - 11th

Conservative 13,000 (34.2%); UKIP 12,000 (31.5%); Liberal Democrat 9,000 (23.7%); Green 2,000 (5.3%); Labour 1,000 (2.6%) (as their supporters vote with their asses and stay away); other parties - various none more than 500. So a 1,000 majority but even possibly a UKIP win.

Trish Law will win very narrowly in the Assembly Election in Blanaeu Gwent but Labour will beat Dai Davies narrowly in the Westminster vote, Labour will have a major recovery in their vote but the Liberal Democrats will pick up a lot of the Independent votes and potentially be a future challenger to Labour there. Next Welsh Assembly Elections - Labour will regain the seat.

Cons lose - end of story

Me at 18:46
If you believe that suggest you quickly visit Betfair or go to Guido Fawkes site where he'll offer you odds of 3:1. Money for nothing if you really believe it.

Bromley Times is always anti-Tory and Duncan Borrowman seems to write some of the stories.

You flatter me :-)

Though occassionally I give them some good material (but not in this election).

I have just returned from Bromley having spent the day knocking up.

Apathy from the core Conservative vote who feel disenfranchised with a poor campaign and the confusion over "3 Jobs Bob" and the validity of his nomination. LibDems active.

I posted my predictions yesterday:


Conservative majority of below 10%. I will stick by it.

I hope you are wrong and I know you have reservations over Cameron's Conservatives but if majority falls isn't this a judgement on what I think of (probably unfairly) as the Home Counties Golf Club Constituency Party?

We should achieve a rise in our vote share since last year in view of Labours failings and the LibDems recent poor showing - and I still hope we do and that my reservations are proved pessimistic - but this selection has been dogged from the start by the local party trying to prove its independence from the CamCons & from what I've read using the same old tactics and messages.

I must admit that having looked at Bromley Councils record on things like civil partnerships perhaps the electors are happier with a traditional Tory. So hopefully Bob will win and win handsomely.

1. 12,000.
2. 50%.
3. Yes.
4. No.

I'm hoping the votes for all the other minor candidates will reduce the Labour and Lib Dem share.

"Conservative 13,000 (34.2%); UKIP 12,000 (31.5%); Liberal Democrat 9,000 (23.7%); Green 2,000 (5.3%); Labour 1,000 (2.6%) (as their supporters vote with their asses and stay away); other parties - various none more than 500. So a 1,000 majority but even possibly a UKIP win."

Too low for Labour, but too high for the LibDems (they weren't raising anyones pulse, on the doorstep at least). The top too close to call. A truly terrible Tory candidate. Seems neo-trad but in reality post-modern.

I'm hoping the votes for all the other minor candidates will reduce the Labour and Lib Dem share.
Labour can't win Bromley & Chislehurst this parliament anyway, or in a General Election, the only situation they could possibly take such a seat is one in which there is a Conservative Government in a state of collapse and them at a high point and even then it would be a tough seat to take, 1995 maybe they would have taken it.

Blaenau Gwent - am told that at the opening of postal votes it looked as if Trish Law was ahead of Labour. Labour strongly tipped to win the Westminster seat. The Assembly seat is more immediately important - if Labour win it, they regain their absolute majority in the Assembly.

Bromley - Bob by 4000

1. 23,000
2. 73%
3. No, the fruitcakes will lose their deposit.
4. Dave's appeal across the length and breadth of the land, coupled with a below the radar telephone canvassing campaign will lead to surprise Conservative victories in both Westminster and Assembly seats, defeating New Labour and Old Labour in one go.

if Labour win it, they regain their absolute majority in the Assembly.
It will make some difference in terms of debates and composition of committees, but then again they have the advantage of being so close to a majority as to make no odds and yet that they don't quite have a majority probably rather releases them from being perceived as being totally in control and there are some advantages of that for them, probably keeps Labour voters in Wales on their toes a bit without causing complacency and people expect less of a Minority Administration. Fixed Term Assemblies lets them out from any sense of constantly having to scrabble to achieve a majority because everyone knows that really on a Labour administration in Wales is practical with the current Assembly makeup.

Good luck to Bob! Whatever the result he has been supported by a fantastic team who should be proud. My hunch is a 4,000 majority and the headline to be Labour recieving a kicking in Wales.

Unless turnout is low, a 4,000 majority would IMO be a poor result, not only in light of the opinion polls, but the local election results in Bromley as well. We haven't yet had the result, however if we get anywhere near to losing the seat then CCHQ has got to re-organise/get a grip on its by-election campaigning. I am getting fed up of seeing a succession of poor by-election results due to poor/inept campaiging.

Would it really be CCHQ's fault though, Andrew? My understanding is that this campaign has largely been left to the local association per their wishes.

Best of luck to Bob, though the distinct lack of support to the Association is to be noted. As to whether they wanted the help or not, I doubt Cameron would have been bending over backwards to even offer it since his beloved A-Listers missed out on the shot. Oh, dont we love a private hissy fit!

That's preposterous, James. I'm sure David Cameron would have made available whatever help the local association wanted. He, unlike others, would need no reminders that we are all supposed to be pulling on the same rope.

Alastair - I wouldn't (for once!) say it was CCHQ's fault. However I think something does need to be done about our by-election campaiging in general - our results in Moray, Cheadle and maybe even Dunfermline were worse than what they should have been.

Cue Bob Neill to romp home :)

I noticed that Electoral Calculus has a problem handling Independent held seats - no matter what figures you enter for the 3 main parties it shows Blanaeu Gwent as being held by an Independent by the same percentage vote, so if Labour wins it back or appears to have moved to a position where they will win it back at the next election that all your figures you are tapping in will still show it as being Independent.

Andrew, on that we certainly agree. We could learn a few lessons from the Lib Dems in this regard though I hope we would make more of an effort to keep our noses clean.

CCHQ can blame the local Association for a bad result in Bromley if they wish.

But is to blame for Moray ? £92,000 spent for 6,000 votes polled. I expect that is the fault of Mary Scanlon.

I guess we could blame the sympathy factor for our poor showing in Livingston.

Not quite sure who is responsible for Dunfermline & West Fife.

So VFSW, would you support CCHQ & the centre treating by-elections outside of normal procedure and for the next deciding who the shortlist is, assuming no selected candidate, and forming a specialist by election team (as our opponents do)?

Andrew Kennedy - fair points. What do you suggest to remedy this situation?

Betfair is indicating that Labour will fail to win back either of the Blaenau Gwent seats.

Follow the money, always follow the money.

Just returned home from campaigning, looks to me that Bob will win by 2-3,500 votes. Labour still 3rd (just!).

Not quite sure who is responsible for Dunfermline & West Fife.
mainly that the Liberal Democrats or SNP were the only parties that could take the seat off Labour and that the more votes the Conservatives gained then the more likely that Labour would hold it and if they didn't then that the SNP would take it off them, indeed the Labour Party will have great reason to hope to regain it in 2009 and the Conservatives taking votes off the Liberal Democrats would help them in this, the Liberal Democrats hold it by a very small margin.

Not quite sure who is responsible for Dunfermline & West Fife.
Should have been in italics.

Labour still 3rd
Labour was actually 2nd narrowly ahead of the Liberal Democrats in 2005.

Andrew Neil has just reported on This Week that the word from BG is that Labour have failed to win back both Assembly & HoC seats.

Failure to win back the HOC seat in BG would be a big disappointment, but we shall see. I still say Labour by a nose

Surprised there's not more live blogging on here. PB.com appears to be the place to be...

Iain - I wonder if you would be good enough to email me on the address linked to my name? Many thanks.

Idiotic that the media keep referring to the by elections as 2 by-elections when in fact it's 3.


Early indications from Bromley and Chislehurst suggest Conservative 48%, Liberal Democrats 38%, Labour lost deposit.

"Early indications from Bromley and Chislehurst suggest Conservative 48%, Liberal Democrats 38%, Labour lost deposit"

Oh dear.Result never in doubt but from 2nd to lost deposit in a year. I shall have to put this one down to tactical voting.

If Labour can't get 5% to save a deposit it might be a bumpy ride in BG too.

Labour have conceded defeat in both by-elections in Blaenau Gwent.

I have just heard a report of a 600 (six hundred) Conservative majority in B&C. Not confirmed.

Looking like a massively reduced majority for B Neill: either the core vote took the result for granted or the more traditional constituents of E Forth wanted to send a message to CCHQ??!!

The Lib's have called a recount as the the margin between them and the Tories is in the hundreds!!
Very surprising, perhaps the local newspaper headlines and the opposition parties negative coverage of B Neill may have hit home with the voters??!!

Not suprising at all Neil. I predicted a 16% swing to the LibDems on this site yesterday.

What did you base this on Andrew?? Did either of the two factors I mentioned above come into it??

Yes - both of them !
I posted my thoughts on B&C on my blog when I returned from Knocking-up earlier tonight. Please feel free to read:


Good insight there Andrew Thank you!!
I fancy the jobs issue certainly took it's tole, and the Euro views will certainly not have helped!!

Just watching BBC News 24 live and it seems the apology in Wales did not have the desired effect!! The independant winners speech was a real throwback to the days of the British disease!!

11,629: B Neill scrapes in!!
Now the inquest begins!!

11,629: B Neill scrapes in!!
Now the inquest begins!!

Fantastic barrage against the Lib Dems by Bob Neill. Well done for having the guts!!

Fantastic barrage against the Lib Dems by Bob Neill. Well done for having the guts!!

I agree. Glad Bob got that off his chest. I certainly don't dispute any of it.

His barrage made him look very small in my eyes.

I think Bob Neill needed to expose the personal onslaught against him by the arrogant lib dem candidate!!
His reaction I think was completely spontaneous and refreshing to see in this era of stage managed politics!!
As a replacement for Eric Forth, an independent minded M.P. we Tories should be proud!! The raw emotion of the speech was evident and great to see.
Congratulations Bob Neill M.P.

There is nothing to be proud about reducing a massive majority to 633! If we're pround of that we'll keep losing.

Kamall was a suitable replacement to replace Forth, having the same beliefs.

The Lib Dems only gained another 1000 or so votes, we lost over 10, 000! Conservative voters stayed at home.

PS It is great to see raw emotion when it expressed on behalf of the people the winning candidate is representing. Having a hissy fit about Bob Neill being insulted is not great.

I think Bob hit the nail on the head in his post match interview when he said many core voters took the result for granted.
Having experienced the Lib Dem campaigning in the North of England I am very proud of the way Bob voiced what all of us Tory activists know to be the truth, concerning their lack of integrity and honesty in campaigning!!

P.S. The hissy fit concerns the integrity of the Conservative Candidate, who was voted in on behalf of a majority of the people to represent their views in Parliament, so it could be argued that he was expressing raw emotion on behalf of them!!
Yes, the majority is very disapointing, but by elections have a habit of throwing up sporadic results!!

Yes Neil, Neill's hissy fit could be argued that he was arguing on behalf of his new constituents. That is known as spin.

And what did you make of the losing Lib Dem's speech, Christina? I suppose it was a model of grace and virtue?

Lets hope that this is just a feak by-election result. A majority of this size, in a seat that we should waltz through, against the limp dems is pretty poor.
Hardly a ringing endorsement of DC is it?
Tory voters stayed at home? Lets hope thats true, but we need them to get out and vote.

"And what did you make of the losing Lib Dem's speech, Christina? I suppose it was a model of grace and virtue?"

It was an appropriate and rather funny response to Bob's Alan Partridge cringeworthy speech. If he can't stand the heat he should get out of the kitchen.

voted in on behalf of a majority of the people

Really ? So turnout was 100% then ?

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