Another day, another opinion poll

Yesterday Rupert Murdoch's Sun paid MORI to survey British opinion and MORI announced a 10% Tory lead.  Today, Murdoch's Times has paid Populus to examine voting intentions and the Tories only enjoy a 3% lead over Labour.

Q. What should we believe?   

A. Not too much this far from a General Election.  ConservativeHome is more inclined to trust Populus given MORI's volatility.  But ConservativeHome's poll of polls is probably most useful of all as it crudely weighs the last five polls - one each from BPIX, ICM, MORI, Populus and YouGov.  That weighting process gives David Cameron's Conservatives a 5.2% lead over a Labour party led by Tony Blair.

Peter Riddell sums it up in this paragraph for today's Times:

"After the turmoil a month ago, the polls have stabilised, with the Tories clearly ahead of Labour, and the Lib Dems squeezed. The Cameron effect (the rise in Tory support in the past six months since he became leader) is worth about four points, with the losses split between Labour and the Lib Dems."

Comments

[A H Matlock]

Probably slightly more realistic than MORI's figures from yesterday, but I agree that the truth is probably somewhere in between, as illustrated by the 'poll of polls.'

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

I think the encouraging thing from this poll is that whilst the Labour vote share has risen it is not at our expense.

[A H Matlock]

Quite right, Iain. The poll is certainly worrying for the Lib Dems, who find themselves losing ground in all recent surveys, irrespective of the firm conducting them.

[Goldie]

It's all meaningless.

Blair will not lead the Labour party. The new leader of the Labour party, whether Alan Johnson or Gordon Brown, will enjoy something of a honeymoon and a certain freshness. It a sense the government will be reborn. The media, in any case, will give the new prime minister a tremendous boost.

The LibDems, in all likelihood, will force Ming out before the next elections. He has simply been a disaster. The LibDems are not suicidal. They will coronate Nick Clegg in time. The LibDems will defy the national picture; they will outperform their national numbers in the seats where it matters.

Despite the optimistic polls, unless there is a serious economic downturn, a fourth term for Labour or a Lab/Lib coalition is still considerably more likely that a Cameron government.

This is in no small part because the Cameron Project is simply too "Southern/"hip"/cosmopolitan" to appeal to Scotland, Wales and the North of England. As long as Labour can win seats without any meaningful competition, it's virtually impossible for the Conservatives to win an outright majority. A Con/Lib coalition won't happen unless the Tories are willing to give the LibDems PR. And if they do that, England as we know it's over, and there is likely to be mushy, continental style bland "consensus" style politics for decades to come.

[A H Matlock]

All of the same polls have shown Gordon Brown doing even worse against David Cameron than Tony Blair, Goldie. There is all to play for.

[John Hustings]

"All of the same polls have shown Gordon Brown doing even worse against David Cameron than Tony Blair, Goldie. There is all to play for. "

Yes, I've not worked out why this is and what's changed. Just before the last general election, Gordon Brown was alot more popular then Blair (and indeed had to be dragged in to accompany Blair in all public appearances). What's changed? Has Brown's economic and public service record finally fallen to pieces??

[Chad]

No, perhaps it was just the comparison base. Blair was deeply unpopular, so Brown was seen as more popular/less unpopular.

Being compared to a new fresh-faced leader, both Brown and Blair look tired.

[Sean Fear]

But as I've said before Alistair, it's still important the Lib Dems poll around 20% or so. It makes our job a good deal easier.

[william]

Small parties are sitting on 11%. In 2001 they were around 7%. They are starting to become a significant factor and yet few commentators are yet admitting it.

Polls are produced for a market - e.g. newspapers want a story such as 'Tories have 10% lead' because the headline sells newspapers.

Unless there is an election in the offing which might embarrass them, they can say more or less what they or their customers want.

[Ben Jeffreys]

Anyone who has been in a sports club knows that a good teasurer often makes a bad chairman. Treasurers are often grumpy and their job is perceived as telling everyone they cannot have any money for anything. Brown may have been well regarded as a Chancellor (although not by anyone who has been paying the steady tax increases) but his grumpiness makes him an unappealing PM. I think he was wheeled out to stand next to Tony Blair to remind everyone how much worse things could have been with a different leader. In a recent meeting with his backbenchers, Tony Blair claimed that his legacy to Labour would be a fourth term in office. I think Tony is desperate to delay his departure until he can find an alternative to Gordon Brown as his successor - he probably doesn't want his "project" derailed by a successor with no charisma. Mind you, it could be worse - there are some nice croquet lawns at Chequers...

[Jack Stone]

William if thst is true the consensus must be that the people want a David Cameron lead Conservative Government.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>The LibDems will defy the national picture; they will outperform their national numbers in the seats where it matters.<<<<
Labour's main loss of support from 1997 to 2005 has been to the Liberal Democrats, since 2003 Labour's vote has started to firm up and many who switched to the Liberal Democrats are starting to return and there has been the beginning of a reversal in Liberal Democrat gains of Conservative supporters since 1992, the Liberal Democrats in taking support off Labour had been making the prospect of Labour losing it's majority more likely, with them going down the Conservative Party will make a major recovery but Labour is liable to restore it's support over the next 10 years, however it means a return to 2 party politics for the next 25 years or so although of course other parties may emerge to win the odd seat such as UKIP and possibly the Green Party.

When Labour eventually lose power - I think 2024 is a likely date then they will argue about why they lost and tear each other apart and be unelectable for decades.

[malcolm]

You had better hope that nobody who works for MORI reads your post William.You could be sued for a comment like that.

[James Burdett]

"When Labour eventually lose power - I think 2024 is a likely date"

Labour being in power for just shy of 30 years. I really don't think thats feasible.

[comstock]

Labour being in power for just shy of 30 years. I really don't think thats feasible.

Well the Social Democrats in Sweden were in for a fair while-but lets worry about the 2009 election first-thats still a way off yet!

[Selsdon Man]

The Lib Dems are in trouble because they have a Minging Leader. He will last a year at most if these poll ratings continue.

The Conservatives have much to fear if Nick Clegg leads the Lib Dems into the next election.

[TimC]

"When Labour eventually lose power - I think 2024 is a likely date"

The sad fact was that people voted tactically against us in the last 3 elections. This, along with the boundaries, distorted the results to Labour's advantage. After all, we received the most votes in England last time.

If things continue in the same manner, there is a good chance that people will vote tactically against Labour at the next election. We also need to ensure that the boundaries are drawn up in a much fairer manner.

[Andrew Cooper]

The key difference to note when looking at political polls is that, of those regularly producing published polls, four companies (ICM, YouGov, NOP and Populus) model their raw data - applying political and other weights to try to ensure samples are representative and consistent - and one (MORI) does not. This makes MORI polls very prone to volatility.

There is very little difference indeed between the average figures for Conservative & Labour support between Populus, YouGov and ICM. The only polls to have put the Conservatives at 40% or higher in this Parliament have all been MORI polls.

And never forget that all polls - however robustly conducted - are fairly blunt instruments, not precision measuring devices. The most perfectly constructed and weighted poll is still subject to quite a big margin of error (+/-2.5% in the case of the Populus poll) - which is merely a function of the laws of statistics. The Populus poll today indicates that if it were possible to interview every single adult in Britain who has a telephone, we would find that the Conservatives are somewhere between 34.5% and 39.5%, Labour somewhere between 31.5% and 36.5%. Polls can't be more accurate than that; much of the banter about poll figures that takes place on blogs and in the press involves heated debate about meaningless differences!

[J.W.Tozer]

The poll itself is not as interesting as the accompanying piece, by one of the more perceptive political commentators, Peter Riddell. Riddell is always worth reading, which is more than you can say for Mogg/Anderson, and some others I could mention.

Some of the contributors to this site should also curb their 'Dan Brown' imaginations. Three years possibly four to the next general elections: anything can happen!

[A H Matlock]

Sean Fear @ 07.42 - You're quite right, Sean. Labour do seem to have been the beneficiary of the Lib Dem decline seen in this poll. Having said that however, I do find it difficult to imagine the Lib Dems substantially improving their standing under their current undynamic leadership and one wonders whether they have the bottle for another leadership challenge this side of a general election.

[EML]

I think Cameron's appeal is slowly gathering momentum (despite the 1% drop in this poll). As long as Blair and Sir Ming hang on for another six months, Cameron may well be seen as the natural successor prime minister, even with a Clegg or Johnson coming to the fore.

[matt wright]

Goldie has fallen prey to Labours spin that the "north" inherently won't vote Conservative. Labour are desperately trying to motivate their own workers with this spin at the moment when the truth is they know that parts of the North and Wales are very vulnerable.

Matt

[Old Hack]

Do I get the feeling there are a few Mingers (I mean Lib Dems) posting here?

Yes these polls are encouraging and they ARE relevant.

What they say is that whilst progress is being made and a page has been turned - we are no longer flat-lining folks - we are not yet at the tipping point when we look, feel and appear to be a government in waiting.

'Call me Dave' has yet to appear truly statesmanlike or demonstrate the grip and authority that people expect from a Prime Minister.

It's not impossible that he will some day command the nation's respect, but at the moment it could all so easily be a case of mid term blues for Labour as the electorate grumbles, then in the General Election reluctantly decides to vote for the devil they know...

By this time next year I suspect we'll know more of the likely outcome of the next General. If we are still only 5% ahead in May '07 we may well have have blown it.

[comstock]

Putting party politicing aside for a moment, Mr Murdoch must have more money than sense!
Two days, two different polls......

Don't the two parts of his empire talk to each other?

It's not impossible that he will some day command the nation's respect, but at the moment it could all so easily be a case of mid term blues for Labour as the electorate grumbles, then in the General Election reluctantly decides to vote for the devil they know...

I'd have thought Labour would be vefy happy to be only three points behind at this stage, with the Conservatives having played their trump card (a new leader) and Labour keeping theirs back......

[Richard]

Out of interest, what happened to Gallup?

[David Scott]

This is fabulous news for Labour given their torrid few weeks.

[Yet Another Anon]

weighted poll is still subject to quite a big margin of error
And even the calculated possible margin of ever is very crude, people don't always answer opinion polls and many lie either out of sheer bloody mindedness, or to distort the poll in some way, or because they are embarrased to say how they are really going to vote. It is interesting to note that on many occasions more people seem to say they are certain to vote than actually end up voting in total despite many who think they probably will or probably won't vote who still vote.

In fact a poll on the eve of a General election showing the Conservative Party ahead could motivate Labour voters to turn out, there is no doubt that the prospect of the Conservative Government being possibly replaced by a Labour or coalition government in 1992 encouraged a lot of people who didn't normally vote to turn out and vote Conservative.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Labour being in power for just shy of 30 years. I really don't think thats feasible.<<<<
Parties can be in power a very long time, if the Conservative Party had narrowly won the 1964 General Election it would have been quite possible for them to have remained continuosly in government until now, after a long time with one party in power they can become entrenched until they bring themselves down - after all in Japan the same party has been in Government since 1950 and shows no sign of losing, Japan could have the same government as now in a century's time, New Zealand had a long spell of one party rule as well didn't it?

I just think that the Labour rank and file will probably be very loyal to Gordon Brown but start to turn on each other once he's finished his proposed 10 years as leader.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>The Conservatives have much to fear if Nick Clegg leads the Lib Dems into the next election.<<<<
most of the public have never heard of Nick Clegg, it seems unlikely they'd make him leader, actually I don't think the Liberal Democrats will bring down Menzies Campbell because it reflects badly on them if they are seen to show poor judgement in picking their leader and pick people unsuitable but Menzies Campbell might stand down himself if he feels that he isn't making any progress.