YouGov gives Tories a 6% lead

After today's poll from Populus (and an 8% Tory lead) a YouGov poll in tomorrow's Telegraph will show that David Cameron's Conservative Party has a 37% to 31% lead.  We'll publish more on this tomorrow...

7.45am update on 10th May

Some highlights from The Telegraph/ YouGov poll:

• 71% agree that last week's reshuffle was "a shambles";
• 61% think that John Prescott should have been sacked and 83% think it "outrageous" that he has kept his salary, residence and other perks following the loss of his departmental oversight;
• 66% agree that Tony Blair was right to sack Charles Clarke;
• 52% think worse of the Government because of the events of the last few weeks and 1% think better (who are those 1%!?);
• 19% think better of the Tories because of recent events and 9% think worse;
• The Tories are thought more united than divided by 44% to 27% whilst Labour is thought more divided than united by 83% to 6%.  Given the way that voters hate disunity this is one of this poll's most important findings.

There are also more interesting findings from The Times' Populus poll - the headline figure for which was revealed yesterday.  Click on the graphic to enlarge it.  Populus finds that Labour is thought to have done better than the Conservatives in only three of ten policy areas: tackling poverty; raising school standards and managing the economy well overall.  The biggest area of failure is "spending taxpayers' money efficiently" where 48% against 14% think that Labour have done worse than the Tories.

Comments

[Ted]

Good to see Labour below that 33% figure that Forecast UK report causes them to really suffer loss of seats! Just need to get some of those 15% others to take us above the 40% mark.

[Richard]

From the Ed Vaizey thread:

"The YouGov poll still shows a high level of BNP support at 6%"

How long is this above-normal support for the BNP going to last?

Good to see the Lib Dems down to 17% although part of me would like them to do better at the expense of Labour. We got our largest majorities in the 1980s when the Alliance polled in the 20s.

I wonder if the Tories would be polling better in this poll if gordon Brown were offered as an alternative like in the Populus poll.

[Richard]

By the way, I like the way that Cameron has a union jack behind him, Ming has a grey blur and Blair just has nothing (a bit like his convictions).

[Matthew Sinclair]

Great news. You know, it's funny, but I think the result of the council elections actually increased our support. Perhaps seeing us get so many votes convinced some waverers that being a Conservative is okay now.

[Serf]

it's funny, but I think the result of the council elections actually increased our support.

I think you are correct. Combined with positive media coverage, good election results can persuade voters to back a winner.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>You know, it's funny, but I think the result of the council elections actually increased our support.<<<<
Maybe it's more indicative of a preparedness of people who are voting Conservative to say that they would do so, after all for the Conservative Party to have got nearly 40% in England then Nationally at least at Local Elections Level support would have been closer to 38% or so.

[Chad]

I guess the important turning point in the past few weeks is that the Labour have acted in such a sleazy way, it has completely negated any lingering memories (ie Labour advantage) of Tory sleaze.

The areas for concern and therefore serious focus are that even at that even at the height of sleaze, people still put Labour in a clear lead for tackling poverty (supporting the poor)and managing the economy (keeping the middle classes content).

I'd say the Tories need to lead over Labour in one of these two to gain enough support to win, and I hope focus is clearly aimed in these two areas to show how the Tories can be trusted more,or at least as good as Labour.

[Andrew Woodman]

I expect we're going to be told by some that Cameron should be on 44% by now.

This is a great result. I always tend to trust Yougov more than the other pollsters. The figures agianst Brown would be interesting of course.

I wonder whether polls are still understating us. I don't think people have the shame they used to have to tell pollsters they are a Tory now.

[Will James]

Two good polls, but we have to sustain this over a longer period before we can truly claim to be making a comeback.
This has to be more than a exercise of making the best out of Labour's woes, this has to be the start of a trend. I hope it is.

[Chris Palmer]

"(who are those 1%!?)" - Tim

That would be all the criminals who were not deported and are also Labour supporters.

[Annabel Herriott]

The 1% would be the remaining inhabitants of the smoke filled rooms that the old union barons used to negotiate in.

[Sean Fear]

A good set of local elections can certainly push up poll ratings. Consider how our poll ratings rose after the May 2003 local elections.

They didn't after June 2004 because our success was overshadowed by UKIP.

[Biodun]

Is anyone else suffering from POLL FATIGUE?

[William Norton]

Matthew Sinclair:it's funny, but I think the result of the council elections actually increased our support.

I agree. In previous council elections where we have won more councillors than Labour I don't think there's been the same flow-through into the wider opinion polls (although Sean Fear and James Hellyer will correct me on this if I'm wrong).

However, for most of the 1980s Labour and the Lib Dems pulled off the same feat against us when we were in govmt. Some of our mid-term polling was atrocious. Long-term, the gradual elimination of the Conservative base in local government caused us to lose power at the national level - but it did take 15 yrs for it to happen. When it came to the crunch in 1983, 1987, and above all 1992 the voters compared the parties and for one reason or another preferred to trust the Tories, even though at previous local elections they had put their vote elsewhere.

So: grounds for optimism - we're certainly now on course to win the 2020 election - but what we don't yet know is whether we've made the breakthrough at parliamentary level. DC's own reaction to the results is looking increasingly the right one: good result, much more still to do.

We're solid on why voters should vote against Labour, still a bit weak on why people should vote for the Conservatives, still a bit weak on campaigning. Brown could still pull off a surprise 1992-style win from here.

[Richard North]

Biodun @10:06 asks "Is anyone else suffering from POLL FATIGUE?"

Ask Mr Knapman... whoops, sorry, I thought you wrote Poles!

[Andrew]

"Is anyone else suffering from POLL FATIGUE?"

Hard to be fatigued with these sorts of leads :-)

[Richard]

"Is anyone else suffering from POLL FATIGUE?"

Nope!

We need to get ahead of Labour on economic management if we are to have a stronger chance of winning the next election. If Gordon Brown becomes leader then who will become Chancellor? Will that person be as canny as Brown?

[True Blue]

If Gordon Brown becomes leader then who will become Chancellor? Will that person be as canny as Brown?

If Gordon Brown becomes leader, then the Chancellor will be ... Gordon Brown. Maybe not in name, but if you think Blair is a control freak, wait 'til Brown gets the keys to 10 and 11.

[G-MaN]

No Poll fatigue here either. Loving It! Cameron should just keep doing what he is doing. Brilliant!

[wasp]

Gladstone did actually appoint himself as chancellor at one point.

[William]

Poll Fatigue? Not really bothered by them.

There are a few 'Poll Results Junkies' however around these parts, who get a high as if a goal has been scored - or a corresponding low.

When you have a big poll e.g. the local election results or a general election, that provides enough data to actually have something worth measuring...except nowadays there is significant tampering from postal vote fraud, which clouds the issue.

Polls are just too wishy washy to mean very much in my humble opinion. They help to sell newspapers and give political commentary something to write about. You could always watch a soap on TV instead. If thje polls didn't exist, I don't think anything would change much.

[J.W.Tozer]

I don't think William should be allowed to write of the polls just like that.

Polls in fact give a much more accurate view of the political state of the country than local/european elections etc., as any analysis of the last six general elections show.

Negatives are much more likely to turn out to vote, the same attitude persists on radio phoneins. If you listen to any radio phonein you very rarely hear anyone praise the sitting government. Yet come the GE the vote then, does not reflect either local polls or expressed opinons.

The last three general elections went pretty much as the polls predicted, ok it wasn't that difficult.

If you look at the last GE in which the accuracy of the polls were questioned, when John Major won against the 'odds', most polls taken the Labour lead was within the margin of error 4%. I personally think that Labour were probably heading for largest party or small overall majority until the Sheffield Rally, Neil Kinnock's behaviour turned enough voters off Labour to give the Tories victory. Remember always have your victory rally, after victory.

Polls are not perfect, even when polls are being conducted, some issue can arise which can affect voting intentions re: the Falklands war.

The problem I see with the present situation, is the obvious one, reaction to the mess the government is in, may not last. The petrol crisis a few years ago sent the government into a spin. Foot and mouth, I can quote Janet Daley of the DT, at that time, "The countryside will rise up as one and drive this rotten government from office," didn't happen, the rural vote was hardly affected by either the foot and mouth issue or hunting!

There is no doubt, the present government is in a deep mess, most of it the result of its stupidity. It may not recover, but equally it may, there's everything to play for! A 6% lead for DC is good, but it guarantees you nothing, if we were talking 15% I'b be saying put the champagne on ice, but the Tories are a long way from that!

[CDM]

As a self-confessed "poll junky" this poll result warms my heart. However, it is vital that we continue to exert continuous pressure on this government to maintain our lead, and during the transition (which seems to be getting much closer) we must heap criticism on Gordon Brown, otherwise we may see a repeat of 1992 (with us on the loosing side).

[William]

Richard's question on the BNP.

In 2004 EU elections they polled 4.9% behind UKIP's 17%.

In the 2005 General Election, they polled 4.3% over 116 seats.

In the 2006 Council elections they polled 18% up from around 7% when they last fought similar seats in 2004.

This might suggest growth in support between 2004 and 2006 of around 2.5 times.

In London 25% of voters now say they would consider voting BNP. Nationally the figure is 17%.

From this I would have expected a BNP figure of nearer 10% than 6% for the current level of support. Given the known hatred for the BNP in the media and polling organisations, I suspect that pollsters will err on the side of caution when giving a BNP support figure.

The most significant thing about the BNP is the growth pattern they are currently achieving. If the same growth rate continues for another two years their support might be getting to the 20+% level and they could push out the Lib Dems as the party that could hold the balance of power in a hung Parliament.

The Party leader could be imprisoned in a month's time, and if so, this could in itself give the Party a boost, as imprisoning of politicians iwont to do.

[William]

I have to add this piece from the BNP website today, which shows just how stupid BNP's enemies are being in handing them propaganda coups at every turn - including rigging the election prcess....this from Kingstanding where there were two recounts which confirmed a BNP win, followed by this...

Continuing with the story of the ongoing saga of Birmingham Council's election night count scandal, Stephen Hughes, the returning officer for Birmingham and council chief executive, rejected BNP West Midlands Regional Organiser Simon Darby's allegations of a secret recount.

"What happened was that once everyone left, someone looked at the figures and they realised a wrong result had been declared. The ballots were not recounted but we have worked out what the right result should be."

There we have it! In other words council employees sat their with a pencil and a piece of paper in private, then decided to ' work out ' to some unknown formula of their own who was the winner of the election with no witnesses at all.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Another good poll result. Let's see if this progress can be sustained over the longer term.

With regards Gordon Brown's Chancellor, Ed Balls and Alistair Darling are the names most frequently mentioned? Darling as Chancellor would be the final nail in the coffin as far as the Tartan Takeover is concerned.

[Patsy Sergeant]

I absolutely agree with 'True Blue' @ 13.38, there is absolutely no way that Brown will be able to relinquish control of the money-collecting bureau - Chancellory.

He has spent ten years devising ever more devious ways to obtain money from the general public and business, and no one would deny he is fairly brilliant at it, but to release control of that to someone else and to spend all his time trying to get to grips with a large variety of totally different problems, and endless meetings, on topics that he has never had to bother himself with before, apart from having to meet many more foreign dignatories. Not just travelling to places that he chooses to in order to 'make a statement'.

He is going to get such a shock in the wide world, out from the protection of his numbers office!!

[Patsy Sergeant]

I absolutely agree with 'True Blue' @ 13.38, there is absolutely no way that Brown will be able to relinquish control of the money-collecting bureau - Chancellory.

He has spent ten years devising ever more devious ways to obtain money from the general public and business, and no one would deny he is fairly brilliant at it, but to release control of that to someone else and to spend all his time trying to get to grips with a large variety of totally different problems, and endless meetings, on topics that he has never had to bother himself with before, apart from having to meet many more foreign dignatories. Not just travelling to places that he chooses to in order to 'make a statement'.

He is going to get such a shock in the wide world, out from the protection of his numbers office!!

[SimonNewman]

BNP:
"The Party leader could be imprisoned in a month's time, and if so, this could in itself give the Party a boost, as imprisoning of politicians iwont to do."

Depends what they're imprisoned for - imprisonment for child sex or financial fraud would likely hurt them. Imprisonment for a comment many people (and all their potential supporters) agree with, and most of those who don't agree still think is well within the bounds of what should be free speech, can only help them. It's grotesque that the leader of a party which (judging by several statements on its website) aims to take total control of the media when it takes power has become a free speech martyr. The Labour government are entirely to blame for this travesty.

[SimonNewman]

"which shows just how stupid BNP's enemies are being in handing them propaganda coups at every turn - including rigging the election prcess."

I think they think they're protecting democracy by preventing the fascists from taking power. They don't understand that by apparently corrupting the electoral process they're doing far more harm to our democracy than the election of a BNP councillor would.

I think there are a few left-wingers who are genuinely trying to destroy democracy in Britain, but the vast majority I think mean well, they are just horribly horribly mistaken.

[matt wright]

This is very encouraging indeed and it is mirrored on the ground where many quite suprising people are telling me how they are warming to us, especially women. There is a "but" though. The support is a little bit soft still, some people are unsure. One of the very important findings is the shift on health where we are beginning to gain ground. I think this is an area we need to work hard on as it is at the core of peoples decision making because in addressing solutions to health a party has to get several issues just right. The issues being -showing we care, managing a major organisation, getting the funding right and the economy stable enough to support it, being practical and plausible about a subject at the top of peoples agenda (there are probably a few other reasons but you get the essence of what I am saying). Our approach before was not right. Hospital vouchers sounded like a gimmick waiting to go wrong and ranting on about just MRSA looked like we were avoiding the bigger issues underlying it. In the case of hospitals and schools people just want a decent local service. We need a thorough debate and well thought through realistic approach to health,

Matt

[SimonNewman]

On health - the most important people in hospital are the cleaners. Hospitals need to be clean, or people die. I've worked as a hospital cleaner - in Scotland in the '90s, where the health service is better funded and higher unemployment means there's more demand for hospital-cleaning jobs. Even there I saw some things I wasn't happy with, but nothing like the filth I see in London hospitals now. Hospital cleaning in the NHS is a shambles that would disgrace a third world country and is killing many thousands of people every year. It needs far more attention - much better paid and trained cleaning staff, far better supervision, medical staff (nurses & doctors) who'll help clean when necessary. The irony is that this can all be done for a relatively small amount of money, a tiny proportion of that wasted on doctors' new contracts.

[kingbongo]

Why are these numbers different to the ones reported on PoliticalBetting?

This confirms the overall message that DC is having a clear and sustained impact on people's willingness to listen to the COnservative message.

Still a long way to go but for me the best news is the fact that we have turned the tide against the LibDems. When the policy groups report I hope and trust we'll have some radical and exciting policies with which to take apart Labour.

Provided we can consistently poll above 40% on YouGov by next summer I think we have a chance to break every electoral record going at the next GE (except maybe John Major's for votes received).

[Richard]

Hold on a sec, half these posts are from May 10! Have 2 poll threads been merged?!

[kingbongo]

It sure looks that way Richard

These reuslts are from the YouGov survey of two weeks ago. Todays numbers are

Con 38 (+1)
Lab 32 (+1)
LD 16 (-1)

Ming Factor 8% see him as the best potential PM, demonstrating that even 1/2 the people claiming to be LD voters don't want their man to be running the country.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Hold on a sec, half these posts are from May 10! Have 2 poll threads been merged?!<<<<
Whoever put up the link put it up to an old article obviously, rather careless really.

[RichardShackleton]

Simon Newman is spot on.

Q: How many people have died in non-NHS hospitals from MRSA-related infections?

A: None

[SimonNewman]

"Simon Newman is spot on."

I do my best. :)