Tories 8% ahead of faltering Labour party

A Populus poll for today's Times gives the Tories an 8% lead over a faltering Labour party.  The Prescott, Clarke and Hewitt triple whammy combined with the local election results and bloody reshuffle have sent Labour's rating tumbling to 30% - a 6% fall on the month and the party's lowest rating since 1992.  The Conservatives, meanwhile, are up by 4%.  A 2% Labour lead in April has become an 8% Tory lead in May.  Sir Menzies Campbell's LibDems are down 1% to 20%.

Labour MPs thinking that Tony Blair is the problem will find plenty of support from the Populus survey.  Half of the 1,509 people questioned by Populus wanted Blair gone by the end of the year.  But, the same Labour MPs will also learn that Gordon Brown may cause a deterioration in Labour's support: "If Labour do change their leader the situation may not improve for them. Populus also asked a hypothetical question about voting intention with Gordon Brown as the Labour leader and found the Conservatives on 41%" (UK Polling Report).  If these findings are repeated the prospects of a Reid-Johnson-Blears alternative to Brown are only likely to grow.

Mr Brown's best chance of victory may be going for a snap election during what he hopes will be a honeymoon period after he succeeds Tony Blair.  George Osborne told The Times that CCHQ has "contingency plans" if Gordon Brown tries such a thing:

"We are ready to go at any time. If Tony Blair goes early and Gordon Brown cuts and runs we will be ready.  We would draw together the work our policy groups have done together with ideas from the Shadow Cabinet into our manifesto.”

Comments

[Giffin Lorimer]

It's taken an enormously long time to translate dissatisfaction with Labour into support for the Conservatives. Given the mess that Labour has made, there should be no reason for those voters to backslide. Now it's up to our MP's to hound Labour out of office and for all of us to make sure people prefer Conservatives to Labour or LibDems.

[Deputy Editor]

It's worth noting that not only has the floating/minority-party vote gone up, but the Conservative gain over Brown comes from that vote with the other two party's votes staying static.

[Richard]

I'm keener on Yougov polls but I think we can safely say that the Tories are, for now, more popular than the ramshackle crew of cretins on the government benches. Just goes to show we don't need the A List after all!

[Antony Calvert]

I fully expect Chad Noble to come scurrying back with his disreputable tail between his legs if these polls continue to be positive.

Who knows, the scurrilous Peter Hitchens may consider being less acerbic in his rubbish newspaper column soon.

Doubt it though

[Andrew]

Who gives a monkeys what miserabilists like Hitchens say? After all, it's not like writing comedy we-hate-the-world pieces to order for tabloid rags is a real job.

Here's hoping the next polls keep the same momentum going - a few more weeks of this and the Labour backbenchers will find enough signatures they need to kickstart a leadership challenge :-) Then we watch and smirk as they self-destruct......

[Will]

After the couple of weeks Labour have had it any of this surprising ? I don't think is anything to do with Cameron just Labour imploading.

It isn't ' a leader on a sledge ' that is winning it.

[Christina]

If it was just Labour's failures, Will, then I would expect us to be sharing the gains with the Lib Dems. That isn't happening though, we are gaining, the Lib Dems are standing still.

[Oberon Houston]

I think the trick is to try and keep as much of this lead as possible, even (if) after some sort of stability returns to Labour. Yesterday I was praising one of our MPs, Grant Shapps, for a modest but important piece of work regarding the NHS. Today I was delighted to hear the Shadow Health Minister, Andrew Langsley on Today again, explaining to listeners how Hewitt has been pulling the wool over the electorates eyes regarding the deficit in the NHS. Both these guys came across very well, balanced and moderate, but well briefed and prepared for astute cross-questioning.

Now, I know this may seem like small beer, but far from it, if more of our MPs set a little time aside to get involved in opposition, it can and really will help us win the next election. The Today program is only one way to the electorate, but it goes to show that one can create ones own 'oxygen of publicity', you just need to do the work to earn it.

[William]

It has taken a sustained campaign in the media to demolish Labour's lead.

What occurs to me is that none of the scandals which have been broadcast about Prescott, released foreign prisoners and so on were unknown prior to the General Election. They could have come out then but they were held back.

These stories have all been coordinated to be released in quick succession now. It sets the mind wondering as to why these events happen in the order that they do.

It's as if every significant political event in Britain from the pushing forward of Cameron, the assassination of IDS and now the grubbing of Blair are all somehow created in the media in a noticeably coordinated manner.

Voters react to these media campaigns as you would expect - the power of propaganda is undoubted. But who decides when these attacks and moves are made?

The only theory I have which fits, is that the EU is in some way able to manipulate the party political events in Britain to ensure that the country complies with their requirements.

Cameron appears to be reliably Europhile - pushing EU agendas, and promoting Maude who was a co-signatory of Maastricht. Only now do the EU feel safe to get Blair moved on, with Cameron safely in place, and the Conservative Party ready to cooperate with EU power over Britain.

Cameron will be groomed by the media as the next PM, and Blair will be trashed. It's all a bit creepy in my opinion.

[Serf]

If it was just Labour's failures, Will, then I would expect us to be sharing the gains with the Lib Dems.

I agree. There is still much that we don't know about our shiny new leader, and he could still make big mistakes (like upsetting too many of us), but for now, his new image seems to be working.

[Christina]

I think the media are obsessed with grooming Brown as the next PM, William.

[Giffin Lorimer]

William: It could be media Darwinism. The media feed on the destruction of the famous and they are pack animals, they throng to wherever the blood is. That's why they love Big Brother and all those reality shows, it creates "snack-sized celebs" for them to devour. Every so often, there's an opportunity for a bigger meal; the press pack can dine for years on a wounded PM but they need the spice of a credible challenger to enhance the flavour.

Then again, there's always the personal element: how many of them have been burned by picking up and running a blatant lie dressed up as Labour spin? Revenge is sweet, but PM's are big beasts, so you bide your time until you're sure he's down and then it's time to give him the kicking you've been saving up for him.

Once they have finished devouring Blair in the Brown/Blair feast, they will want more blood. Brown/Cameron will provide 3 more years of media frenzy.

[Christina]

I also think that the news coverage of Cameron's driver was hardly grooming.

[Chris]

It's becomming increasingly clear that some people who post comments on this Blog are never going to be happy with DC's performance. First huge net gains in the local elections and now a poll (By Populus of all organisations!) is showing us literally thrashing labour on a national basis.

I'd like people to think about how the effects of Labour doing bad things has only just began to make us gain in vote percentage. If we didn't have DC now I wouldn't have been suprised if our vote shares had remained roughly the same and turnout had fallen even more, as thats whats happened since 1997.

Also no one still has an explanation as to why people are flocking just to us and not to the Lib Dems (The have a poor quality leader is not a valid reason!), the answer is simple, DC may not have any policies (yet) but he has managed to make the party acceptable as potential government material again.

Now I won't go as far as saying "return to your constituencies and prepare for government!" I do think its time we accept that DC is the real thing, and we should get be working towards an electoral victory in 2009/10 (or perhaps earlier if we get a snap-election).

[Ted]

Tony Blair didn't get his poll lead in early 90's primarily because of his New Labour project - it was John Major & the Conservative Gov'ts failures that made people look at the alternative and then because of the Project they found NuLab was an acceptable alternative.

DC & team now need to show they are the acceptable alternative and keep the high ground that NuLab have vacated through sleaze, incompetence and time.Labour won last year by default - only 36% of the vote but both opposition parties weren't a good enough choice. We are going to see lots of ups & downs in the polls but the direction is away from NuLab and a moderate, competent Conservative Party should be able to take the benefit. Time for a Change works against tired governments but it should be a tempered change (look at how Canadas Conservatives moved towards the centre and won).

[Sean Fear]

Also no one still has an explanation as to "why people are flocking just to us and not to the Lib Dems (The have a poor quality leader is not a valid reason!), the answer is simple,"

Prior to the local elections, polls were indeed showing people turning towards the Lib Dems and minor parties, rather than to us. Why not let's wait and see what the next few weeks polls bring?

[Christina]

Sean,

I'll have a stab at the explanation.

My background is working class and Labour supporting, but as I entered my 20's, Labour were too left wing, and the Tories (at the time of Thatcher) were too selfish in my eyes. I wanted something inbetween.

New Labour came about, and it was a perfect match, or so it seemed. They moved to the right, and I was happy.

I think a similar thing is happening with Cameron now. There are conservative people who are put off by a CP that is too harsh, too selfish, etc.

Just as Labour moving to the right with New Labour won me back at that time, so Cameron moving to centre and compassionate Conservatism is winning back the lost conservative voters.

Why no increase with the Lib Dems? Well, I think it is because we want to vote for a party that can be a Government, and the Lib Dems are not that. Their recent spate of debacles took away their illusory whiter than white image too.

My tuppence. :-)

[Henry Whitmarsh]

I for one am very happy. It looks as if the people who abandoned us in 97, 2001 and 2005 are considering voting Tory in large numbers, as are those Tory voters who stayed home and sat on their hands. I wonder who's going to be on the new list...

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Oh, and the BBC are reporting the poll, but only the fact that Labour have fallen to 30%, not the entirely Conservative gain.

[Jack Stone]

For god`s sake give credit where credit`s due. David Cameron in five short monthsa as took the party from the brink of destruction to looking like a government in waiting.
Those doom and gloom merchants who post on this site are not only cretins they have an agenda of their own. They want DC to fail because they see it as a way for the right to regain control of the party.
I have news for them. It ain`t going to happen!

[Christina]

Jack

It won't happen if we get into the habit of calling fellow party members - cretins. Labour is falling apart with internal fighting, let us not emulate them.

We can disagree without name calling.

[Ted]

Sean
Possible scenario is that when the polls were taken Labour "sleaze" was an issue but we didn't benefit because there was a bit of "they are all as bad as each other" so people looked at smaller parties as protest.
However the Black Wednesday before the election made a difference as people then looked more at the alternative government party rather than the protest vehicles.

[James Maskell]

The reason why the advantages are going to the Tories is because the Conservatives have always been the alternative to Labour, thus typically those people go back to the Conservatives (basically Christina's point). The thing these polls do not show however, is how much of the gains the Conservatives are making is on the back of Labours disintegration, and how much of it is due to changes made under Cameron. I would suspect the majority of it it on the former.

[changetowin]

What a bunch!!! Eight points ahead in the opinion polls, fantastic local election results and still they carp! There will be ups and downs but David Cameron's strategy has brought the Conservatives back from the brink. The divide on this blog is between those who want the Conservative Party to be an ideologically pure talking shop and those who want us to be an acceptable alternative government for a broad coalition of modern Britons.

[wasp]

James you still have to be in a position to capitalise. Under Michael Howard a collapse in the Labour vote only boosted the LibDems, expressed by the way that most Con gains in 2005 came from the left-vote splitting.

[Ted]

James

Cameron's changes matter because, to use the jargon, the narrative has changed. The media present Cameron's Conservatives as a realistic alternative in a way they wouldn't Howard's leadership. Without agreeing with conspiracy teories on media manipulation the dropping of policies, the A list, the new man image all work in the minds of opinion formers.

Then when Labour fails there is a revitalised opposition. The old saying hat oppositions don't win, Governments lose isn't quite true but an opposition that offers safe change can make voters happier about letting go of Nanny's hand.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

Actually Ted, the poor voter has been clobbered by change over the past nine years. Shouldn't the tories be offering a government which doesn't govern in the language of initiatives, crackdowns and roll outs?

It would be interesting to see whether voters see reform rather than massive spending increases as the way to provide better public services. They voted for Blair three times, the last time on a promise of reform..

[frank aylesford]

hmmmm - maybe the thirty pieces of silver are being paid. We'll have to wait six months to see though for sure. Someone said the other day that whatever happened my sort of argument was no lose (ie. if the tories do badly Cameron's modernisation hasn't succeeded; if they do well he is lacking in principle). The problem is that for all real conservatives it is actually no win - ie. we're not represented. And no this is not some Old Labour/pure Thatcherite talking shop we want - it's just a commitment to basic conservative things like low taxes and using the private sector where appropriate

[Christina]

"it's just a commitment to basic conservative things like low taxes and using the private sector where appropriate"

Frank,

Cameron is committed to low taxes by sharing the proceeds of growth. I know about Davis and his plan, but I think Cameron's strategy is like weaning people off milk with a promise of solid food, whereas Davis would provide solid food when the baby isn't ready for it. Or, it's like broken legs. Cameron wants the physiotherapy, where Davis wanted the injured to go jogging.

I believe in small State, but it is a process, not a sudden move, IMO. People are resistant to change, and too big a change will put too many people off.

It was different in Thatcher's time because people recognised drastic action was needed to curb the unions.

[Sean Fear]

If, as a result of moving to the centre, we go into the next election promising to maintain Labour's levels of tax and spending, to support the Common Fisheries Policy, and sharing Labour's belief in massive immigration, and political correctness, then any Conservative victory will be a pretty pyrrhic one.

[William]

Christina - I am not sure about your Cameron driver story being the equivalent of a media drubbing. On the contrary it is only making the fact that Cameron bikes to work more interesting as a news story, so more people take the story in. You must admit that he's had very soft media handling right from Day 1 at the Party conference.

The media campaigns that build up Cameron, and pull down Blair or IDS, might be self-motivated amongst the media, but I believe they are not. Whose is the invisible hand that controls or attempts to control our politics through the media?

Maybe the same organisation that seeks to have our parties funded by government, banned if they don't conform, and which is happy for our fraudulent postal voting system to be used to keep out opposition.

As Conservatives we should be happy that Cameron is being promoted as Blair is given the treatment. But actually I feel sickened that our lives are so easily ruled by such obvious propaganda.

[TimC]

One thing that is notable is that during the last Government, people were saying "It is a shame that there is no opposition when Labour are doing so badly".

That seems to have changed since Cameron became leader.

[James Maskell]

Disagreeing with David Cameron over changes brought by his leadership is not carping. Its bringing up genuine grievances to debate. Its disappointing that when we argue our case we get dismissed as carping or simply trying to cause trouble.

Why is it that when we argue that Camerons making the wrong decisions and coming up with the wrong policies, we get slapped down as troublemakers, even when we have a good point? Do the Cameronites not like those who hold alternate views?

[Richard]

"scurrilous Peter Hitchens may consider being less acerbic"

I think he's come to accept that the Tories might win but he doesn't think it will make any difference.

"Who gives a monkeys what miserabilists like Hitchens say?"

A lot of Daily Mail readers?

"Those doom and gloom merchants who post on this site are not only cretins they have an agenda of their own."

Are you sure you're not a UKIP supporter trying to stir things up?

Before celebrating too jubilantly (as I was last night) we perhaps ought to wait for the other polls. If this lead is sustained then we can get out the champagne corks. With Brown in power we won't have to worry about forming a coalition either. A Tory majority of 60 (which is what we'd get with 41%) ought to be enough to undo the New Labour project.

[Richard]

Get out the champagne corks?! What was I saying?!

[kingbongo]

James, you left the party and intend standing against it in a local election.

You are therefore not just trying to nudge the party towards your own views but actively working against it. We need to be a broad coalition and I would say so far DC has passed the tests rightly set for him. I don't mind people wanting to raise the bar and campaign for things they beleive the party should be doing more of but at some point everyone in a coalition has to agree the leadership's line. So far DC is proving himself and we are making good progress - you would do better to argue your case from within the party and learn to accept that nobody's agenda is going to get all the attention, we need to win voters away from minor parties, abstention and Labour, we won't do that by constantly banging on about issues we feel are vital but which don't resonate elsewhere in the elctorate.

[Richard]

"Disagreeing with David Cameron over changes brought by his leadership is not carping."

If the A List causes serious divisions within the party as I fear it will then our so-called carping is entirely legitimate because we fear it might undermine our lead in the polls. We do NOT want Cameron to fail. We just want him to avoid making foolish decisions.

[Chad]

Andrew cheekily wrote:
fully expect Chad Noble to come scurrying back with his disreputable tail between his legs if these polls continue to be positive.

It's good news Andrew, anything that gives Blair a kicking is good for me, but I won't be 'back' unless Cameron drops positive discrimination, drops state funding of political parties and completes the epp withdrawal.

If he does that, I'll happily lick his boots on the square outside parliament and you can hold me to that. I think my tongue is safe.

[James Maskell]

Can we have a contract on this one, Chad? We could sell tickets on ebay! Im sure we could get a good crowd. Not sure though that Cameron likes that sort of publicity though, "Commoner Cleans Cameron's Converses!"

[Chad]

I'd even wear a dress and flippers to complete the humiliation if Cameron is happy to deliver those three issues.

:-)

[kingbongo]

Chad - are you going to abandon the hordes of working class voters flocking to Imagine after seeing your ad on Guido? All just for the chance to wear a dress and flippers?!?

As you will probably get 1 out 3 (EPP withdrawal) would you settle for a Tory Radio interview, where you admit DC kept his promise and has improved the chances of conservative policies being enacted?

Obviously the dress would be optional, but a summer frock can be very liberating (according to my wife) :-)

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Unquestionably an excellent poll result, although it seems somewhat obvious, despite the hyperbole spouted by the likes of Jack, that this outcome will not be borne out at the next general election.

[Chad]

Hi KB,

No of course not, I can wear the dress and flippers any time. :-)

I don't believe it is going to happen, I was just seeking to highlight to Andrew that my support is not driven by polls but a set of core values.

Imagine is here to stay, and hopefully will help extend the conservative voice at Labour's expense.

[J.W.Tozer]

My, aren't the conspiracy theorists and wild scenario creators out today!

Remind ourselves, it is an undeniable fact that a third term is always the poisoned chalice. It does not matter what any government does, trouble arrives in battalions!

We are now in a period of 'churning' it is still not clear what the outcome will be.

In 1956, the Suez crisis, produced the downfall of a PM, a massive loss of confidence in the then government, Harold Macmillan took control of the situation, and led his party to a landslide victory eighteen months later.

Do not be overcome by euphoria, remember how the polls went in Labour's favour after the Westland affair, the Tories still had a convincing win eighteen months after that.!!

People are at the moment, reacting to a series of events, that are very unfavourable to the government. Polls (and I'm in the main, an admirer of how they are conducted and how their accuracy has improved) tend to over react to bad/good news for a government. There are three years to the next election, and if 'a week is a long time in politics' three years is an eon.

[Christina]

Chad,

Please don't take this as personal, I am questioning the Imagine Party.

You say:

"Imagine is here to stay, and hopefully will help extend the conservative voice at Labour's expense."

On the A-list thread you have stated that you are going to stand against Conservative candidates who have been chosen in a way which you disagree with. That being Cameron's way to increase numbers of women and ethnic minority candidates. Now, you are portraying the Imagine Party as being on our side, and opposing Labour, rather like buddies.

Which is it? Have you changed your mind about opposing women and ethnic minority Conservative candidates chosen in a way you disaprove of?

[William Norton]

Out of mild curiosity on a slow afternoon I have some questions about Imagine, and it's just possible Mr Noble may be reading this site:

(1) does Imagine actually have any members?
No names, just a hard number. A precise one would be appreciated (not 'somewhere between 0 and 10,000').

(2) has Imagine ever fielded any candidates?
Where did they stand? How did they fare?

(3) how fundamentalist is the opposition to 'state funding of political parties'?
Are you against Short Money for parliamentary researchers? Are you against salaries/pensions/travel expenses for MPs? Would you pay full commercial rates for party political broadcasts on the BBC? Would your party pay for the hire of schools closed on election day to act as polling stations? Would your party pay commercial rates for office space at Westminster? etc etc

(4) isn't it about time to admit you've had a good run, but you can take a joke too far and now is the time to knuckle down and start work to help return a Tory MP somewhere?

[Andrew Woodman]

A little off Topic but a rather good joke about John Prescott.

What does John Prescott and an MFI flat pack have in common ?

A few screws in the wrong place and the whole cabinet falls apart

[Christina]

William

I've already asked question 1 today on the A-list thread, you can read the Imagine Party's response there.

[Chad]

Hey,

I'm trying to discuss issues not keep going on about the party but in answer:

On the A-list thread you have stated that you are going to stand against Conservative candidates who have been chosen in a way which you disagree with

That's the second time you have deliberately misquoted my 8:08 post! Read it properly I stated:

I pledge that Imagine will put up a small c conservative local candidate in every seat that Cameron, or any party imposes an all-women, all-whatever list to give the electorate a fair choice.

William
(1) does Imagine actually have any members?
No names, just a hard number. A precise one would be appreciated (not 'somewhere between 0 and 10,000').
When the Tories are prepared to do the same, ie open their membership totals to independent vertification I will happily do the same.

I suspect the Tory figures are inflated, detail new numbers but ignoring natural wastage. Honesty starts at home William.

2) has Imagine ever fielded any candidates?
No, the next general election will be the first.

(3) how fundamentalist is the opposition to 'state funding of political parties'?
100% - not Short Money, but I would like that reduced, but the new proposals that seek to 'reward' parties for each vote.

Are you against Short Money for parliamentary researchers?
As above. Don't like it, but accept some money is needed for parliamentary role only.

Are you against salaries/pensions/travel expenses for MPs?
No.

Would you pay full commercial rates for party political broadcasts on the BBC?
I want to dramatically reduce to election spending to around £5million then as the BBC is already paid for by us, I would like a series of discussions involving the leaders of the parties, then the heads of health etc actually debating the issues head-to-head, taking direct questions from the audience instead of wasting money on spin in ads.

(4) isn't it about time to admit you've had a good run, but you can take a joke too far and now is the time to knuckle down and start work to help return a Tory MP somewhere?
No. Imagine candidates will be standing.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>I think the media are obsessed with grooming Brown as the next PM, William.<<<<
I think there are enough Labour members and backbench MP's and Trade Unionists who felt that it should have been Gordon Brown who should have succeeded John Smith and who feel that it is a last thing they can do for John Smith, that Gordon Brown is virtually certain to succeed Tony Blair as Labour leader and Prime Minister.

I rather suspect that the Media prefer Alan Milburn or David Milliband and are inclined to think that Gordon Brown as leader would generate far less in the way of material for sensational stories.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>I pledge that Imagine will put up a small c conservative local candidate in every seat that Cameron, or any party imposes an all-women, all-whatever list to give the electorate a fair choice.<<<<
And what are Imagine's policies? Bare in mind that even Robert Kilroy Silk's well known persona only took Veritas to 0.3% of the vote.

[Chad]

Best go to the forum. I'm seeking to discuss small c conservative issues, it is just that some people don't seem to want to let me, or any other non-Tory small c conservative do that for some reason....

[Jon Gale]

William,

Dammn right, its obviously an EU plot in alliance with the Freemasons, the Catholic Church the House of Windsor and the Illuminati!

[Christina]

Okay, Imagine Party founder, you will put up candidates against the Conservative Party and other parties, when candidates are chosen to address imbalances, such as shortage of women and ethnic minority candidates, in a way which you believe to be unfair.

Big difference! All I pointed out was that here you are giving the impression you are working with the Conservatives, whereas elsewhere you will oppose us in elections. I missed out that you will oppose other parties too.

You haven't retracted then, you will be opposing certain Conservative candidates at the next election.

William, I can tell you that when I was in ProgCon with Chad, he never answered questions about how many members we had. We had 4.

There are 14 forum members on his Imagine Party website forum, with very few posts by anyone but Chad.

[Chad]

Well stop worrying about it then Christina. You seem to have the same bee in your bonnet since you found out the ex-BNP are banned.

Yes, I tried to engage with those like yourself who drifted to the political extremes to try and bring you back into the centre. Hands up, it was a mistake. There is no place for ex-BNP, OK. Now let's move on.

Now, please, this is beginning to look more and more like a personal assault and this is not the place for an ex far-right member to be doing so.

[Christina]

You always defended me when I was attacked by Mike Smith, a UKIP candidate about being in the BNP a couple of months. You also refused my offer to resign from ProgCon for the good of ProgCon. You have acknowledged publicly that I have never been extreme as long as I have known you.

So, I believe you to be very hypocritical to keep using this Ad Hominem attack on me. Twice in one day, one here and one on the A-list thread.

Chad, I would resign from the CP if they wanted me to.

Chad, if you do well with Imagine and you oppose the CP as you have pledged, then I expect the Press and Media to carry headlines of how the Imagine Party is targetting women and ethnic minority candidates.

I would have done nothing, but you have been so hypocritical that now I will.

I will write to every newspaper and local media to expose you. I will be willing to appear on television, with witnesses, to share how some of your No Pref, No Prej were racist.

One of them was the banning of halal and kosher foods. I argued we should have a loose interpretation of NP, NP on that matter, you argued it had to be ABSOLUTE.

You would have Muslims and Jews have their meat banned.

[Christina]

PS For anyone concerned about me being in the BNP for a couple of months.

I am on record at the unofficial UKIP forum as arguing against the BNP, time and time again. I have even been doing it today, where someone was claiming that the BNP have been cheated in Birmingham. All people have to do is a search on my handle there 'Christina' and you can read all posts over the last several months.

My lack of judgement was an experience that I believe can be used for good, because I have first-hand experience of why some people fall for the lies of the BNP, and I act to expose them.

Now the BNP have had some success, I believe I can help by sharing my thoughts on the subject, from the perspective of one who was fooled.

[Geoff]

I'm glad I'm only in the office for the next half-hour, because this is getting a tiny bit too personal and tedious for my taste.

Nothing personal, Chad or Christina, but I'm missing the usual on-topic intelligent and stimulating debate here. Please go and have a pint together and hopefully sort this out between yourselves.

[Editor]

Chad, Christina: does EVERY thread have to end up as a disagreement between you two on almost exactly the same subject?

[Christina]

I would be happy to Geoff, but Chad has made personal attacks on me today about the BNP, and also his delusion that I only criticise him because I can't join his party.

His party is centre-left. I am a conservative, how can I join a centre-left party?

Anyhoo, that's enough.

[Richard]

"Dammn right, its obviously an EU plot in alliance with the Freemasons, the Catholic Church the House of Windsor and the Illuminati!"

Don't forget the giant lizards!

[clive elliot]

I think the mistake we all make is to suppose that opinion polls tell us something we didn't know already. Actually, the polls only every make a big change like they've done this week in the fallout from an election result - in this case the locals. No opinion poll gave tories 40% to Labour below 30% until the local election results did so, and after this they all will. Voters are like sheep - following a bandwagon till it tilts over!

[Chad]

Well I am happy to never respond in any form to any of Christina's posts ever again if she would just do the same.

Deal, Christina? Let's just ignore one another, please!

[James Maskell]

For Gods sake, you two, grow up and stop your bitching on this site. The only people who care about this is you.

Excuse the rude language but Im sick and tired of reading this.

[Editor]

Thank you Chad for agreeing to stop posting about your disagreements with Christina. Christina posted another load of the same stuff which I've deleted. I'm no longer willing to tolerate it.

Please continue to post Christina but on the subject of the threads in question.

Either one of you will be banned if you ever engage with each other again on historical differences.

[Christina]

Okay, now I'm assured that no one is interested, I will not respond again to things that provoke me, but I will respond with counter-arguments to anyone and stay on topic. Okay?

[Christina]

PS My apologies too. :-)

[Richard]

Perhaps we should have a "personal disputes" thread where those who are interested could observe the latest developments?

Back on topic, do we know when the next opinion polls are due out? We need confirmation that this is not a freak result. When we have a sustained and significant lead in all polls we can start to celebrate.

[TimC]

"There are three years to the next election"

Unless,

1. Blair bows to pressure and resigns.
2. After being elected by the unions, Brown calls a snap election to take advantage of his (very short) honymoon period.

[Jack Stone]

Those on this site who consistently attack the party`s leadership have there own agenda. They will only support the party if we have a Thatcher clone leading it and would rather see a Labour government in power than a Conservative one lead by someone who doesn`t support there out of date view of the country.

[malcolm]

Jack why don't you ever enter into a debate rather than making these unjustified comments?

[Sean Fear]

"Jack why don't you ever enter into a debate ..."

Because he doesn't know how to.

[Richard]

Re Mr Stone:

May I draw everyone's attention to this link again:

http://www.ukipforum.co.uk/about10602.html

[blogga]

William said:
"It's as if every significant political event in Britain from the pushing forward of Cameron, the assassination of IDS and now the grubbing of Blair are all somehow created in the media in a noticeably coordinated manner.

Voters react to these media campaigns as you would expect - the power of propaganda is undoubted. But who decides when these attacks and moves are made?"

It's interesting, I know that several of you have rubbished his later conclusion that the EU is behind it, quite rightly. But William is often quite perceptive, and he's hit the nail bang on the head again as far as the first half of his analysis goes.
I was at a Carlton Club dinner last night where Lord Butler (Butler report, the former cabinet secretary) was giving a speech and was saying that under Major, after number 10 briefings, the lobby would literally get into a circle and decide there and then the line that would be taken all accross the british media, regardless of the paper (generally trashing Major).
My conclusion is that we are definitely sometimes taken for complete cattle by the press lobby. It is intersting that Butler was saying that what he saw under Major is the reason why he doen't feel very sorry for the press when they get manipulated by new labour spin doctors.
William also made some really encisive remarks a few days ago.
But I do think the pro-EU thing, though there is undeniably a mechanical correlation, is a load of rubbish william, you've taken it too far!!!

[Forecast UK]

We are now forecasting that the tories will win more seats than Labour if a General Election happened this week. What is far more interesting in our analysis is that a general collapse in Labour seats seems to occur at around the 33% mark. With Labour in our forecast currently at 32.2%, even with minimal tactical voting there is a severe anti-labour swing chiefly in Scotland and the West Midlands. There is a more extensive post on the website.

[Goldie]

Oh dear.

I said after the locals that, if the polls would ever show a 40-26 lead for Cameron, I would stop criticizing the "Project"....

We're getting awefully close to those numbers. Hm.

[Henry Whitmarsh]

I want to know who's on the Gold List. It could help out polling data even more. I'm in an ultra marginal seat (Hereford) so I'd really like to find out!

[Andrew]

40-26? You're basically asking for a complete Labour wipeout :-)

A consistent 38/39 vs 31/31, that would be enough. Labour would self-destruct after a couple of months of that.

[Goldie]

Andrew: well, 40-26 was the outcome of the Locals only a few days ago that had everyone here he in such giddy mood, no?

[Andrew]

Sure, but the polls are national. Last week was England only, on top of which we've done better at locals than general elections for donkeys' years now. Labour getting <30% at a general election would be catastrophic, and 26% would be a wipeout to make Major's 1997 result look good.

[Goldie]

No, 40% was the BBC's "projected national share of the vote".

[Andrew]

OK, missed that. It's still only local election results though, versus polls which are meant to be applied to general election voting intentions. Even Cameron's wildest dreams won't have Labour <30% for any length of time, let alone 26%.

[Yet Another Anon]

I don't really reckon much to National Opinion Polls accuracy given the numbers of people refusing to respond or who feel reluctant to admit who they are voting for who they may think are seen as untrendy, but if they are to exist given how different voting patterns in England, Scotland and Wales (let alone Ulster) have been over the years - shouldn't there be seperate polls for the 4 Nations?

[Scott]

We had a similar situation here in Canada recently with the Liberal party. The internal warfare between the two factions was so fierce and divisive that it weakened and ultimately sent them to the opposition benches with no immediate hope of repair.

[Shaun Lee]

Blimey!! you tory boys (and ladies of course)do get excited easily dont you.
3 years before an election...dave (to his friends and any potential voter!!) is all the rage and fashion(remember fashion comes and goes)the Daily Mail is all happy cl about about the new conservative party and how its changed its values!!!!!!!!
Enjoy because as you know it wont last ..Labour is here to stay and to lead this country into even greater prosperity, a health service to be proud of, schools that are delivering real results...My kid is doing great at his brand new school ..just built you know!!and I imagine a certain Mr Brown to be leading it. Oh and by the way...A proper dialogue with the new ,vibrant, modern ,forward thinking Trade Union Movement that is doing very well at the moment (sorry maggie didnt win!!!!!) anyway bye for now.

[Andrew]

"Modern, forward-thinking trade union movement", rofl

As for the rest, growth rates are poor, the NHS is a total shambles (ask the nurses), and education is now driven by meaningless tests. These are aimed not at improving standards, but statistics for the media (pass rates up x%!) - school "qualifications" have become so devalued as to be worthless.

[matt wright]

Mr Shaun-Lee,
1 Delusion Avenue,
Planet Zog,
Parralel Universe.

[Shaun Lee]

OH Dear...I found some grumpy torys....Dave C(apparently I am a mate as I have a vote!)says that all will be well when he leads you to the promised land.

Yes The Trade Unions are modern,forward thinking and very relevant to the 7 million members and their families.
Obviously you have not yet reached Daves new world and are still stuck in 70s Britain..never mind ...we wont miss you!!!
Anyway I am sure you will have some inspirational words of wisdom for me..talk soon.
Mr Shaun-Lee,
1 Delusion Avenue,
Planet Zog,
Parralel Universe
ps...Dave C is my neighbour!!!!!!!

[Shaun Lee]

where has all the tory faithfull gone....hugging hoodies and talking to flowers and spreading love....Dave said that we must !!you tory boys and girls are turning into softies and aging hippies ...see you soon (ps Tony sends his love!)

[ANTHONY>HILL]

I will never ever vote Conservitive again.If a party is more afraid of Ken Clarke than voters,and supporters then have they a problem.A few per cent up on this rabble and they are shouting from the rooftops,who cares about the tories or labour,fill the country with forign armies,its good for the economy all parties agree.When is that going to stop.who cares about the English.Thats a dirty word,I have given up on the lot,but I.m still voting and they wont like who I vote for,they say they are extreem,in what? deceit,lies,false promises,spin,Iloath the lot of them. I come from the skilled working class who voted for Thatcher.

[MFEMF MFE]

Working Class....evil Thatcher voter!!!no wonder your misguided!!

Dont tell me from that little rant I assume your off to vote for the BNP...Come on you tories (and I mean the real ones that at least are committed to your principles.not Davids darlings!I do have time for those...even though I completely disagee with you)convince this person that he is very wrong...or do you agree with him.