The slow death of the Blair premiership

Sky News is reporting that Tony Blair's meeting with Labour MPs went well.  There was lots of banging of parliamentary desks after Labour's leader elaborated on his promise to ensure an orderly transition to his successor.  The elaboration consisted of a commitment to give his successor enough time to bed into the job of being PM before the next General Election.  Earlier in the day, at a news conference, a sweaty Mr Blair insisted that Gordon Brown was still his preferred successor.

One of the reasons Mr B's encounter with Labour MPs "went well" was that no member of the left-wing Campaign Group of MPs was called to ask a question.  Perhaps the same New Labourites who silenced 82 year-old Walter Wolfgang at last year's Labour conference were in charge of tonight's proceedings?

Mr Blair may have secured a temporary easing of hostilities tonight but his premiership is slowly bleeding to death.  John Reid admitted earlier today that at least 150 foreign prisoners not considered for deportation had committed very serious offences - almost twice as many as originally admitted.  More revelations about John Prescott are in Fleet Street's pipeline, Scotland Yard is still investigating loans-for-peerages and Labour MPs are not going to keep quiet when Tony Blair brings forward further public service reforms.  ConservativeHome predicts that plans for a new generation of nuclear power stations may be the straw that breaks the back... 

Comments

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

Iain Dale is reporting that tomorrow's Populus poll has Con 38 Lab 30 LD 20 with the Conservative mark rising to 41 in the event of a Brown premiership.

[Henry Cook]

This poll is the best news since DC won the leadership. The honeymoon is over, as has been widely reported. Instead we have real, solid progress.

Labour down to 30% is incredible. Now we have to get above 40%.

[Chris Palmer]

If the media pressure on Labour continues, then this may well be true. However, after a time, I feel that it will go back to service as normal, or if Brown becomes PM - favourable coverage.

Also, a word of caution about the poll. Wasn't there a poll in the Sun a while back that put the Lib Dems on 25%? that nobody believed. This is one poll, and we all know that polls do not often reflect public opinion but are simply a means to sway it.

[Deputy Editor]

I haven't seen any evidence that Populus is trying to sway public opinion rather than reflect it, have you?

[Chris Palmer]

I was refering to opinion polls in general.

[Rob Largan]

This poll is very good news. Of course, without more polls, we dont know whether it is just a one off. Lets hope not.

But what is crucial is that we dont let all this recent success go to our heads, voters may now be ready to listen to what we have to say more than ever, what is important is that we say the right things in the right way to win them over.

I would like to see a lot more on said about Housing.

[Deputy Editor]

I was refering to opinion polls in general.
Such as?

Iain Dale is reporting that tomorrow's Populus poll has Con 38 Lab 30 LD 20 with the Conservative mark rising to 41 in the event of a Brown premiership.
UK Polling Report had the topline figures late afternoon.

[Anthony]

I must admit that I didn't - the clock on my blogging software is just wrong!

[CDM]

As several people have pointed out, we shouldn't get cocky about one opinion poll. However, it doesn't half help to raise morale in a party that has been unelectable for the past 3 elections!

As long as remember to talk about every area of policy and manage to avoid any huge embarrassment, the implosion of the government and Brown's lack of charisma should deliver us the next election.

[Chris Palmer]

Such as, Sam, the way opinion polls are used to manipulate viewers or newspaper readers. If enough people, for example, begin to see the Conservatives leading in the polls, then they are more likely to vote for them - therefore, the support has been created by the polls.

[Deputy Editor]

Sure, that's an inevitable effect they have - as with betting odds. Good example of groupthink, although the effect tends to hit the opinion formers which trickles down to the "average Joes".

They do still beget support from an initial rise in support rather than out of thin air, however. I'd like to emphasise the point that they don't in my opinion manipulate the public through their methodology, despite some methods favouring some parties more than others - which is what I mistakenly thought you were insinuating.

[Annabel Herriott]

The next general will be pretty well hung, just in case the late doris stokes wants to take the piss again! A very clever pal of mine wrote in april 2004 that in his 3rd term, blair would get more and more messianic, and the list of ex ministers will burgeon. All this has come to pass. 10 out of 10 for he! Also, the chickens come home to roost 2006/7, correct, they are, and blair will find himself out of a job 2007/8. Given the unpredictable energies flying around, he does not know how it will play out, but reckons blair will continue to give us "good theatre". This chap is apolitical, he just reads maps, except he is a darn sight better at it than I am. I have been just fascinated, getting this article out, and re-reading it. Every time, something has to be checked off. To cheer you all up, healso reckons brown will end up as tail-end charlie. I will watch and see how that pans out. NOW you can all scoff!!

[Richard]

I'm keener on Yougov polls but I think we can safely say that the Tories are, for now, more popular than the ramshackle crew of cretins on the government benches. Just goes to show we don't need the A List after all!

[Christina]

I find it interesting that as soon as we have a new Home Sec, John Reid, the figures of dangerous criminals released, doubles! What were they saying? Charles Clarke was the right man to sort things out! He's only gone because of the media, not because of inability.

[Oberon Houston]

The Blair re-shuffle was one of the worst cases of political jobbery I have ever seen. One can read the script...

Prescott - your fired... But... We all know you need money.... so if you can get me another 18months in office...£££.

..Yes Mr Bush, I know you cannot take unilateral action against Iran... yes I know I need to force through cabinet support.... Jack, can I have a quick word?

Right, what I would really like is two Communists in highest office, Reid to home please! (Brown has had a free hand in domestic policy for too long, Clarke can't stand up to him, but Reid will - and after years of neglect and allowing Brown to cause chaos, I've finally decided to take control, by proposing changes we demolished in 1997.

[Mike Christie]

"I find it interesting that as soon as we have a new Home Sec, John Reid, the figures of dangerous criminals released, doubles! What were they saying? Charles Clarke was the right man to sort things out! He's only gone because of the media, not because of inability."

Surely this just shows how clueless Clarke was, Reid has only been there a few days indeed, the report that the number has doubled doesn't mean all these prisoners were released over the weekend!!! It means that Charles Clarke didn't have a clue who had been released.