Sean Fear: How did the parties perform last night?

"As I write, at least 13 councils are still waiting to count (and I am completely exhausted).  Any comment on the outcome has to be provisional and impressionistic.  It looks at this stage as if Labour will lose around 300 seats, the Conservatives will gain about 250, and the Liberal Democrats will roughly stand still.

This is a good result for the Conservatives, certainly at the upper end of most peoples’ expectations.  The BBC has projected a national vote share of 40%, the highest share won by the Conservatives since 1992.  It is important to note, however, that this is simply a projection, based on a minority of wards contested.  The vote share won by minor parties in this projection is almost certainly an underestimate.   Turnout has been high, perhaps as much as 40%.

On the ground, the Conservatives have advanced strongly in London (with a net gain of six councils), in the South (winning councils such as Winchester, Hastings and Crawley) and the West Midlands, winning overall control of Coventry for the first time since the late 1970s.  In the North, Bolton, Chorley and Bury have shown encouraging Conservative results, but elsewhere they have performed less well.  Wirral and Sefton once  Conservative strongholds, have shown no Conservative gains, and once again, they have failed to make any breakthrough in Manchester or Newcastle.

There have been some striking exceptions to this good performance however.  Richmond was lost to the Liberal Democrats, and Gosport to No Overall Control.  In addition, the Conservatives came close to losing Enfield (where the Save Chase Farm Hospital campaigners ate into their vote), and lost ground in Brent, Waltham Forest, and Barking and Dagenham.

In general, the regions that the Conservatives did well in last night, are the regions they did well in at the General Election (with the exception of the West Midlands).  Southern voters are clearly turning from Labour to the Conservatives;  Northern voters are, in general, more sceptical.

Labour did badly, but given the events of the past fortnight, are probably relieved not to have done worse.  They have lost at least half their London boroughs, and are projected to have polled 26% of the vote nationwide, at least 7% down on 2002.  In next year’s round of local elections, they will probably poll well below 25% of the vote.  They have however won Lambeth, and have come close to winning back Islington.  More importantly for them, they have performed strongly against the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield and Manchester.

For the Liberal Democrats, it’s a case of one step forward, one step back.  Gains in Richmond were offset by losses in Sutton and Kingston. Strong performances in Brent, Camden, Haringey and Oldham, were matched by weak performances in Harrow, Tower Hamlets, Solihull and Bolton. They will be disappointed not to have done better, but compared to their position in January, they have done very well indeed.

Among the minor parties, Respect, British National Party, and Greens have all performed well.  Respect will have at least 11 seats on Tower Hamlets, one in Birmingham, and doubtless several in Newham.  Both the Greens and the British National Party will have made gains of twenty five or more seats nationwide by the end of today.  With 11 or 12 wins in Barking and Dagenham, it seems clear that the BNP would have taken control of that council if they had fielded a full slate of candidates.

What is striking is the sheer oddness of so many results.  Not only did neighbouring boroughs move in different directions, but neighbouring wards moved differently.  What explains the Conservatives winning all three seats in Gospel Oak for example, while losing all three in Belsize?  Or Labour gaining two out of three seats in Tokyngton, while losing all three in Queensbury?

The electorate is restless, and as well as punishing the government, is happy to punish incumbent councils, and councillors."

Sean Fear stood for the Conservative Party in the Brent local elections.

Comments

[malcolm]

Interesting analysis Sean.I heard you were standing how did you get on?

[Jonathan Sheppard]

At one point the Conservative representation was down to 6 councillors in Bassetlaw - its now 28 with Labour on 14. Some great results outside of London - which goes to show the party is alive and kicking outside of the M25.

[Sean Fear]

I polled 1,233 votes, but Labour still won all three seats in Fryent. We pushed up the Tory vote by 300-350 compared with four years ago, but Labour pushed up their vote by a similar amount.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

Sean - I was with a friend who won - but at his third attempt So keep up the good work as it will pay off!

[matt wright]

Sean, you have this initial analysis right in many respects. The key issue that is emerging more and more is that voters are more volatile and will punish incumbents. Primarily so in the case of Blairs labour. They are looking very much at which person or party is best positioned to remove a weak incumbent. This will help us in most parliamentary seats where we are the 2nd place main contenders. It also explains the diffuclties in getting a foothold in some Northern areas in some cases where the Lib Dems are the main 2nd place contenders. These generalities can be overruled where the council as a whole is poor,

Matt

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Respect will have at least 11 seats on Tower Hamlets<<<<
It's really what would be expected, if Respect couldn't do well in Tower Hamlets then they wouldn't hqave any prospects at all.

[Andrew Milne]

The Tories have 7 now in Tower Hamlets. 3 in Millwall showing what local activism can do in a real labour heartland, 3 in the Isle of Dogs and 1 in Wapping.

[wasp]

I think the most interesting point is that there has been a straight shift from Lab to Con. The Liberals barely moving, a weird result considering the Lib Dems usually benefit from Labour defeats.

[Jonathan Sheppard]

The surreal alternative really must be questioning the wisdom on electing Ming.

[Richard Allen]

Labour will be fairly happy with these results. Outside London their heartland vote has remained solid. In the 4 South Yorkshire Borough's they have made a net gain of 4 councillors and still hold 3 of the councils. It isn't the meltdown that they feared and it's no where near what we suffered in 95 and 96.

[Chris Palmer]

"The surreal alternative really must be questioning the wisdom on electing Ming." - Jonathan Sheppard

I had been thinking the same thing Jonathan.

BBC News now says Conservative have a net gain of 276 councillors.

[Paul Kennedy]

Labour lost overall control of Warrington, losing four seats to the Lib Dems, but remain the largest party by one. The Conservatives retained the 2 seats that were being contested, (with a superb result by Fiona Bruce in Penketh, who fought off a vicious Labour campaign and increased her majority) and remain on 6. Interesting times as to who will do a deal with whom.

[Rob Largan]

I am very suprised about what has happened in Manchester. In my student campus ward, the incumbent Lib Dem worked the ward hard, leafleting us around 5 times in the last 2 months, but has lost spectacularly, despite a lot more students turning out to vote because of the good weather. Manchester Lib Dems were talking about taking control of Manchester, and they have made some very bad loses, they mus be wondering what went wrong.

This doesnt fit in with voters punishing the incumbent council either.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Labour will be fairly happy with these results. Outside London their heartland vote has remained solid. In the 4 South Yorkshire Borough's they have made a net gain of 4 councillors and still hold 3 of the councils. It isn't the meltdown that they feared and it's no where near what we suffered in 95 and 96.<<<<
I doubt they will, their total vote is the same as it was a year after the Iraq War - they are not likely to do better in the coming 2 years Local Council Elections - this leaves them with the prospect of losing countrol of large numbers of councils, although it isn't all a story of Labour losses and they have made gains in some places in terms of councillors mostly in Northern England.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>This doesnt fit in with voters punishing the incumbent council either.<<<<
But it does fit in with the recovery of many Labour supporters who switched to the Liberal Democrats in 2003 & 2004 and after a weakening of the effect of the Iraq war on Labour support started and will continue for a number of years.

[Richard]

Last time I looked we had 12 net gains didn't we (BBC now says 11)? I also thought we'd won Harrogate. Does my memory fail me?

[Yet Another Anon]

Labour's main losses in support in these Local Elections has been among Middle Class voters and chavs, if anything it seems their support among minority ethnic groups has been recovering slowly.

[Richard]

If it's any consolation the BNP lost one seat in West Yorkshire.

[Nelson, Norfolk]

I do hope that DC will have a look at why we lost some seats and councils that we should not have lost.

It can only be put down to bad campaiging. It looks like that the ones that one are the ones that delivered their leaflets and knocked on the doors etc.

The opposition wins seats from us not because of their policies but because we let them win. All Associations must learn how to win and the sooner the the better.

Come on DC take note. Get CCO to action this point.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Last time I looked we had 12 net gains didn't we (BBC now says 11)? I also thought we'd won Harrogate. Does my memory fail me?<<<<
Harrogate went from Conservative to No Overall Control, the Conservatives lost 2 seats but remained the largest party and the Liberal Democrats gained a single seat.

The 2002 elections were being held before the War in Iraq and before the main body of support that Labour lost to the Liberal Democrats between General Elections.

[passing leftie]

Labour have regained Lambeth from the LibCons. That's what comes of positive discrimination (a councillor candidate school for BEMs) and hard-nosed campaigning against LibDem dirty tricks.

[James Maskell]

1,233! In the ward Im looking to stand in thats the equivalent of 3 candidates!

[Richard Allen]

Just to add to the point about Labour retaining it's heartland support. They made a net gain of 8 seats accross West Yorkshire. The North/South political divide is more evident than ever before.

[Andrew Milne]

Though admittedely it should be pointed that Labour currently holds no councils in West Yorkshire. The Tories though need to look at what is going on in the North particularly in Yorkshire where we seem to be continually struggling. At least in Lancashire some slow progress is being made as seen in Bury, Bolton and Chorley last night but none seems to be happening in Yorkshire.

[kingbongo]

I thought Sean was a bit soft on the LDs, they had the worst performance of the night in my opinion and in London they were rescued by the Richmond result.

I said I would be very happy with vote share above 38% and evidence of progress outside the M25 and that has happened. It's also clear we have a long way to go. I wish the Hackney result would come in!

James M - are you going to stand as a Conservative or an independent?

[sbjme19]

I agree that movements seem to follow the General Election 2005. The seats in West London where the tories have won the councils showed strong swings to them compared with very disappointing results in Yorkshire eg Selby, Elmet.

[James Maskell]

It will have to be as an Independent, though I lean towards the Conservatives locally.

[Ted]

I just re-read through a few archived threads on politicalbetting & others and the "informed opinion" a few days ago was that Labour losses over 250 would be disaster - well it looks like thats been achieved. The Conservatives achieving over 200 a triumph; well thats been achieved. Conservatives at around 40% a triumph; that's been achieved.

The LDs were expecting great things wheras it looks like there has been a significant tactical unwind with Labour recovering LD votes in Northern heartlands. In South a mixed picture but no advance (regained Richmond but held on to Kingston by a handful of votes in a couple of seats).

The Tory Party has played this well - satisfaction but no overblown triumphalism. We do have more to do in the urban North, though suburban North West is encouraging and the Midlands & Essex give hopes.

I'm not sure how much this is DC's changes - perhaps subliminally they make us more attractive and the positive campaigning was well positioned. But in the end its Government's that lose and NuLab sleaze is helping us there.

The bar though has been raised for our performance in the next, then the next, then the next locals - now the hard work starts.

[Paul Kennedy]

James, make sure you have a big local issue to go with, or a big Christmas card list, or you might not get your £500 back. I speak from experience having stood last year in Warrington South as a Right of Centre Independent.

[kingbongo]

Paul - I don't think there are deposits in local elections only GEs.

James - I trust, in the spirit of trying to encourage back to your natural home, that the local party won't put a candidate up against you.

[Andy Stidwill]

Although Labour has done quite badly, the fact thay they've actually picked up seats in places like Lambeth, Islington, Great Yarmouth, Manchester means that the results can't be compared to the wipeout that we experienced in the dying days of John Major's government in the 1990s.

I'm disappointed that Labour managed to do better than expected in some areas like those mentioned above.

[Chris Palmer]

"James - I trust, in the spirit of trying to encourage back to your natural home, that the local party won't put a candidate up against you." - kingbongo

Why? Why have a halfling when you could have the real thing?

[Paul Kennedy]

Paul - I don't think there are deposits in local elections only GEs. 15:28

You are right, I thought James was talking about a GE as an Ind as he said he is a Conservative supporter in the locals

[Paul Kennedy]

In their heart of hearts, I would have said the Lib Dems must be feeling the most disappointed. Despite their jubilations at taking 4 seats off Labour in Warrington, I doubt if they will be "at the top table". Mind you maybe the Conservatives should let them, just to show the electorate what a bunch of shockers the Lib Dems are.

[Andy Stidwill]

It's true that the Lib Dems were expecting to win Solihull. They must be pretty surprised by their failure to take it.

[James Maskell]

There are big issues in the ward, and both the Conservatives and Labour suffer from the issue of having weak Councillors there at the moment. Im also very young and have worked in that ward (in a newsagents) for the last 3 years. Im well known by people for trying to do something about the issues and getting answers. I have good hopes for this.

As for what the Tories' plans are for the elections, I honestly dont know. I hope they wont put up two candidates (its a 2 Cllr ward) but they are defending the Council and Labour wants back in rather badly. Theres no bad blood between me and the Association and I still plan on helping them out in other wards as I am a conservative and dont want Labour in power (I wont be able to get anywhere as Labour knows me too well from last years elections...). But if the Tories put up two candidates they will have to expect one candidate not to make it because I plan on fighting very hard indeed and the campaign starts soon.

[Dick Wishart]

What an excellent result for DC and Conservatives in general, just one thing though, where on earth are the whingers are they hiding or do they only come out after dark.

[James Maskell]

Whingers? I think we are actually core supporters of the Party being forced out by poorly thought out policies... I was here reasonably early!

[Chris Palmer]

2 more councils just declared. Labour have neared 300 losses.

[christina]

I suppose I qualify as a whinger and I have mixed feelings. locally I backed the Tories (a) because we had 3 LibDem councillors; (b) I wanted to make certain we didn't get Livingston e's Tram .-.-.- now all 3 boroughs from shepherds Bush to Uxbridge are against it!!

We'd have done better - IMHO - with someone harder than the wet Cameron. If Camrerons visit oop t'north had dealt with the wandering hordes of foreign murderers and rapists and left the Green-Blue irrelevance to a more appropriate time

On a more general note I think the etnic vote has resumed its support of Labour which had the effect of hiding its losses of native voters.

[True Blue]

Whingers? I think we are actually core supporters of the Party being forced out by poorly thought out policies... I was here reasonably early!

Bloody-nosed and cowed, the usual suspects return to the field of battle after the election truce. We hold out the the hand of friendship in the hope of that they put their foolishness aside and join the blue-clad warriors of conservatism, instead of sloping away to engage in their usual behind-the-lines insurgency. Be the Change, my friends.

[James Maskell]

What makes you think that us rebels are joining the "blue clad warriors of conservatism" and that its not the other way round? I reject the hand of friendship with the Conservative Party that Cameron leads as the direction is wrong on sdeveral counts. Cameron is leading the Party of Platitudes, not the Party of the People.

[Mark Fulford]

We'd have done better - IMHO - with someone harder than the wet Cameron. If Camrerons visit oop t'north had dealt with the wandering hordes of foreign murderers and rapists and left the Green-Blue irrelevance to a more appropriate time

Your tactic would have delivered Ming a happier day.

On a more general note I think the etnic vote has resumed its support of Labour which had the effect of hiding its losses of native voters.

Is this gut feeling or have you seen something to back it up?

[malcolm]

Is that it now?Have all council results been declared?

[Ted]

"In a more general note I think the etnic vote has resumed its support of Labour which had the effect of hiding its losses of native voters."

I understand from beter informed posts on politicalbetting that there is evidence to the oppsite in West London where an Asian conservative vote might be appearing. If we want to win in urban Britain attracting conservative minded voters of all groups seems the way ahead.

[kingbongo]

Blimey, when I guesstimated 301 gains I didn't expect to be so close (I thought 260 tops).

Can I have a mug anyway Ed? I mean I was pretty damned near and I promise to use it in my college staffroom, at great risk of being ostracised by some of the more unreconstructed elements in Further Education!

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

With one council left to declare (according to the BBC website), we've made 300 gains.

A splendid result, albeit a little South-heavy.

[Andrew]

Just keeps getting better. 250-275 would have been good progress, but this is well beyond that.

[spot the ood one ouy]

Hammersmith and Fulham:

Stephen Greenhalgh, the Tory group leader on the council, said: "Tonight we have heard the death knell of New Labour in our capital city. We campaigned as tax-cutting Conservatives and we will run this council as tax-cutting Conservatives."

Not a Cameron supporter I take it? A pretty pointed reference to tax cutting rather than tree hugging. Vive Madam T.

[Chris Palmer]

Limp Dims current have a net gain of 1 councillor! Hurray!

[James Maskell]

Damn straight Stephen Greenhalgh.

[William]

What is striking is the sheer oddness of so many results, writes Sean.

Not so odd if you believe as I do that election fraud is now standard practice in all UK elections. Why does the government allow an unaudited postal voting system known to be fraud-faciltating to continue? Mmmmmmmmmmmmmm...............

[Rob Largan]

I think possibly apart from the fading issue of Iraq, and Ming being a dud, the Lib Dems might have been affected by the BNP, in the sense that their appearence on the ballet paper could have frightened ethnic minority voters back into the Labour fold, out of fear that the BNP might slip in if the vote is split. Well, its a theory anyway.

[H&Fite]

Stephen Greenhalgh, the Tory group leader on the council, said: "Tonight we have heard the death knell of New Labour in our capital city. We campaigned as tax-cutting Conservatives and we will run this council as tax-cutting Conservatives."

Halfway through the (ex) Labour leader, (ex) Cllr Stephen Burke accused Greenhalgh of planning a "Secret budget, containing £50 million worth of cuts".

Greenhalgh told him there was nothing secret about it and it was £55 million of dead wood that would be removed. The man is a legend.

[Nicholas Slide]

Is it just Newham, my borough, to declare now? The Labour Mayor was re-elected with a pretty clear majority. I'd imagine Respect are the only party with a chance on the council. Rather Labour than them.

[Andrew]

"Not so odd if you believe as I do that election fraud is now standard practice in all UK elections"

A fiddled electoral system across so many thousands of council wards, that somehow all the newspapers/bloggers missed, and yet only delivered 26% for the ruling party?

Hrrrrm.

[Annabel Herriott]

Colne valley held two, won one and lost one by 50 votes. The BNP have done well here. Our problem is lack of foot soldiers, so difficult to get a lot of literature out. This will again be a problem at the next GE where a PPC with a LOT of friends/family would be a bonus!! Its anno domini that does for us, ie over 60 years of age. There you have it. Any ideas??

[Richard]

At the moment the BBC website says we made 299 gains. Which was my guess :D.

But it says one more result to be declared.

[True Blue]

What makes you think that us rebels are joining the "blue clad warriors of conservatism" and that its not the other way round? I reject the hand of friendship with the Conservative Party that Cameron leads as the direction is wrong on sdeveral counts. Cameron is leading the Party of Platitudes, not the Party of the People.

The offer of Armistice rejected, we pause for tea and garibaldis, then reluctantly stand watch at the machine gun nests, all the while looking over our shoulders for more treachery.

[Mark Fulford]

You may stand watch at the machine gun nest - I go home very, very happy and David Cameron deserves a great deal of the credit.

Lib Dems were gifted with exactly the same 9 days of Labour sleaze - but could make nothing from it. When Sarah Tether told us last night that she was confident of gains, I don't think that three councillors (or 0.3%) was what she had in mind.

[William]

Re BNP

NB that they polled 19% of all the votes cast in BIrmingham, and 16/17% of all votes cast in West Midlands.

The polls give them 6/7% last week. maybe an underestimate I would think.

[William]

There are reports of multiple incidents of postal vote fraud in Birmingham and London.

If Labour got 25%, maybe they would have got 20% without the fraud. Let's face it. No one wants them any more, but they still won the general election a year ago. Fraud is so easy to do, and the investigation process is puny.

[Richard]

"We'd have done better - IMHO - with someone harder than the wet Cameron. If Camrerons visit oop t'north had dealt with the wandering hordes of foreign murderers and rapists and left the Green-Blue irrelevance to a more appropriate time "

While Cameron's strategy undoubtedly went well down south there may be a case to be made that it doesn't resonate as much up north. Would be interesting if we did some in-dpeth analysis of reasons behind our failure in Manchester etc.

"Be the Change, my friends."

Your speech was fine until that ghastly cliche :p.

I shall continue on the course I've always been on - supporting Cameron in general but speaking up when I believe he's making a mistake.

[Sean Fear]

The interesting thing is that David Cameron's strategy didn't win over that many of the sort of people it was aimed at. The Lib Dems still won Richmond, and still hit the jackpot in places like Camden, Brent East, Haringey and Lewisham; Islington returned not a single Conservative councillor (again).

But - it clearly did not repel core Conservatives either. The Conservatives polled most strongly in the sort of areas where they have been historically strong; solidly bourgeois parts of London, the South, and affluent parts of the Midlands.

[Richard]

"But - it clearly did not repel core Conservatives either."

I expect a lot of core Conservatives like the idea of a pleasant local environment. Whether they're as keen on "the environment" in an international context remains to be seen. The fact that we ran a positive campaign that emphasised the strengths of Conservative councils probably helped a lot too.

[James Maskell]

The only treachery in your army is the treachery shown by the leadership which has turned its back on the core support. I and other critics of Cameron stand against the image-driven Conservative Party thats been created. We're looking for real substance and not just the ones that Cameron may or not have been involved in during his "normal university experience".

Calling for Clarke to resign does not say what the Tories will do, it simply criticises what exists. Cameron talks of the positive campaign on national radio, specifically mentioning crime. The only policy Ive heard during the campaign is about saving the environment, which isnt going to reduce their tax bills or get their waste collected any quicker. The local election campaign wasnt aiming to talk about crime until Clarke screwed up and even then it wasnt proposing anything.

We watch your machine gun nest and laugh. Lions led by donkeys!

[Jaz]

James, 2 years from now, the policies will come, at the moment its a rebranding excerise which has worked brilliantly. 300+ seats without a real national agenda but the environment goes to show we ARE electable.

The core vote is still there. This is brilliant news, hate for labour is fuelling the core vote to go out there and vote for us, and a calculation at CCHQ defintely paidoff well.

On course for a hung parliament in 2009.

[H&Fite]

What I'm hearing is that most of the successful inner-city Conservative campaigns focussed on tax cuts, refocussing police priorities and efficient provision of basic concil services. I think the line that won it for us here in H&F was "We will cut council tax to Wandsworth levels within two terms".

I voted for Davis but have disagreed with Cameron less than I thought I would. He still needs to refine his approach to cities. The inner city is not Notting Hill, it is Hammersmith Broadway, White City and Shepherds Bush.

[Richard]

Final result in and we've lost our only seat in Newham. The Christian People's Alliance gained two though. Are they a centre-right party?

[Sean Fear]

CPA can't really be defined in left or right terms. They have a high degree of support among Black and Asian Christians in London.

[Richard Allen]

Someone in this thread asked if there was any evidence to support an assertion that muslim voters were going back to Labour.

Here in Birmingham there was certainly some evidence of this and even more evidence that they are fed up with the Lib Dem's. In at least 5 heavily muslim wards in the inner city the Lib Dem's suffered poor results. They failed to gain Springfield (where they hold the other two seats), they failed to gain Washwood Heath (a split ward where they topped the poll in 2004), they went backwards in Nechells (narrowly lost in 2004), they lost Aston (had held all 3 seets ) and their vote crumbled in Sparkbrook (another split ward) as Respect took the seat from Labour.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>I think possibly apart from the fading issue of Iraq, and Ming being a dud, the Lib Dems might have been affected by the BNP, in the sense that their appearence on the ballet paper could have frightened ethnic minority voters back into the Labour fold, out of fear that the BNP might slip in if the vote is split. Well, its a theory anyway.<<<<
A surprising proportion among minority ethnic groups seem to be falling for the BNP's claim that they are no longer a racist party, there's no doubt some of it is people posing online as being from minority ethnic groups but when people appear on tv and radio and say they are voting for the BNP and you can tell by their appearance and accents that they aren't what the BNP would consider to be their people that they are genuine, obviously the BNP is encouraging them to go on and say this - obviously the percentage would be lower than for people not considered to be from minority ethnic groups but there is no doubt that the BNP is managing to set minority ethnic groups against each other to some extent as a means of getting their votes and now Asians are complaining about Somalis and Polish Plumbers, and then there is the Sikh\Christian\Hindu vs Muslim agenda that the BNP is pushing.