Reviewing ConservativeHome's benchmarks

On Wednesday morning I set some benchmarks to judge last night's results.  Here is a back of the envelope look at those tests...

• Will Labour fall below 27%? Labour dropped to 26%;1% below Tony Blair's 2004 performance.  A grim result but not catastrophic.  There have been no surprise calls for Tony Blair to go.  The PM is now beginning a major overhaul of the Government.   It looks like Straw is on the move and that Charles Clarke will go.  Unbelievably John Reid appears to be playing musical chairs again, too.  Choosing such a big overhaul of Government is not what you would expect from a Prime Minister planning to step down soon.
• Can Tories become the biggest party in London?  Yes.  Very good results for the Tories in the capital (Richmond excepted).   Winning in Ealing was completely beyond Tory expectations.
• How will the Tories do in Manchester and Birmingham?  Tories made progress in Manchester but failed to win that one elusive seat.  Reports from the ground suggest that our organisation is being rebuilt there, however.  Modest gains in Birmingham.  Tories will stay in coalition with the LibDems.
• How will the Tories fare against the LibDems?  No knockout blows against the LibDems but modest progress.  Interestingly Francis Maude says that LibDems had worse night than Labour.  CCHQ understands the importance of the LibDem threat.  ConservativeHome will be focusing on the Tory-LibDem relationship throughout next week.
• What share of the vote will Tories get?  40%.  A very good result and at the top end of expectations.  Cameron enthusiasts will put this performance down to the party leader's likeability and green image.  Cameron sceptics will explain the 2% improvement on 2004 by pointing to Labour's dreadful ten days and the recent Tory emphasis on crime.  There is truth to the arguments of both camps.  ConservativeHome believes that David Cameron will make big change announcements before the summer recess.  He talked on the Today programme about "further and faster" change.  It is important that he also keeps his fire focused on crime.
• How will the fringe parties and independent candidates do?  Margaret Hodge's intervention hugely to blame for the BNP's Barking performance.   Performance of other smaller parties looks unspectacular but more data is required.

More results to come but the ConservativeHome crowd's prediction of 256 gains does look reasonably wise.

Comments

[Mr Eugenides]

This analysis seems pretty sound. Despite some of the more feverish predictions of 400+ gains for the Tories and 400+ losses for Labour, this has probably at least met expectations for DC and in some places exceeded them. Blair will be mildly relieved that it was not worse for his lot. And the Lib Dems are largely treading water. All in all a good night all round.

How far these results can be translated into material progress is largely down to what the leadership do next. A bit more putting the boot into the government and a bit less farting around on glaciers wouldn't go amiss.

You're green, Dave. We get it. Now go and kick Tony a bit harder, please.

[changetowin]

Triumph for David Cameron and a confirmation of his strategy. The first test for modern, compassionate Conservatism and it has triumphed. All those who voted to "change to win" should feel vindicated. My flammate who has been carping about the "vote Blue Go Green" strategy said that she at her words this morning. I think it's time that many on this site did the same!

[Andrew]

More important is Blair's response: the reshuffle. He's overdone it, and it will be seen as panic stations in the longer term. Sacking Clarke and weakening Prescott would have been proportionate, and responding to events. Sacking Straw will change perceptions from a moderate reshuffle after bad results, to a frantic attempt at saving dear leader.

[Ted]

Tony - it was the HOME office that needed splitting.

So Jack's comments on no force against Iran must have been too much for Tony (unless he's also been working too closely with Gordon and/or has a "prescott" history?)

It looks very like a "I'm here to stay so do you're worst" reshuffle targeted at his Labour critics and possibly Gordon.

[Rob L]

Yep agree these set of results are vindication of the Cameron strategy; still work to do in Manchester etc but we are moving decisively in the right direction. I think the Vote Blue:Go Green campaign was well executed and has gone a long way to reshaping the image of the party. It is the fact that the Lib Dems were largely nullified (apart from Richmond) that is the most encouraging. Cameron now needs to build on this success both with continuing to broaden our appeal but also showing the oppositional steel that he has recently shown against Blair over the deportations fiasco.

[True Blue]

I congratulate the usual suspects for having the wisdom to keep their mouths shut at this happy time.

Labour were down at their bedrock, and we still made gains. A good night.

[changetowin]

Sorry - my flatmate who had been carping about the change ATE her words this morning!!!

[RobC]

I would gibe the party a 'B' grade for that performance. Labour were always going to lose a lot of seats, the biggest positive is that they were, on the whole, gained by Tories.

Areas for development: cities in the North of Engalnd.

Word of warning: these were English elections, the Tories are stronger in England than in Wales and Scotland

[torylady]

This wisdom of crowds business is rather spooky.

I am now tempted to not make any decisions without the approval of Conservative Home!

Is anyone else having trouble getting work done what with the elation and the sunshine?

[malcolm]

You're right Tory lady.Haven't done much at all today except blog.

[Serf]

The first test for modern, compassionate Conservatism and it has triumphed.

If David Cameron's Change agenda had an impact here, it was on the incapability of Lib Dems to gain at Labour's expense. Labour's losses are mostly their own.

Its definitely a good move forward, but triumphed is a word we should save for the General Election. There is still a long way to go.

[James O'Shaughnessy]

A good night all round, esp with the LibDems flatlining. That's the best bit of news of the night for me. But we should remember that we've now got back to par, no more. We've got to do better, and all work TOGETHER to make sure we can, but now at least we can feel that victory in 2009 is a realistic possibility.

[the Prince]

What happened in the mayoral elections?

[Chris]

I'm saying a good day for us, there was complete euphoria at school this morning, and I get a real sense that the tables are turning. What I want now is a good westminster Labour marginal by-election for us to fight!

[Nigel C]

I would be interested to know how many councils with no overall control end up being led by Conservative coalitions with Lib Dems. How are we going to handle the relationship with the Lib Dems when we need to win Westminster seats back from them but could work together now to achieve our policies at local level? Harlow unitary is a prime example with nearly equal Conservative, Lib Dem and Labour seats but run by a Lib Dem / Labour adminstration and with a Labout MP who only held off Robert Halfon by less than 100 votes

[EdR]

A good sense of momentum with the Conservatives. Any number of caveats -- it's only a poll in (some of) England, there are large swathes of the country which are still Tory no-go areas, Blair has had a pretty torrid few weeks and 40% is still a fair way from suggesting an imminent fall of the government. But there's still a lot to be pleased about.

Strong gains, clear momentum, apparent progress on the ground even in areas where the councils aren't going blue. Labour's losses are directly benefitting Conservatives -- not the Liberal Democrats. It's given Cameron the shot in the arm of his first success with the electorate at large, and should muffle the volume of his critics as he continues with his reform programme. And besides, he's only been leader for five months!

I always liked the Vote Blue, Go Green campaign. I thought it was a smart, upbeat campaign that played to the strengths of Conservative councils and to the strengths of David Cameron personally. It was an important milestone in the 'rebranding' of the party: campaigning on an issue that nobody in UK politics had really colonised, an issue that shows long-term vision and the sort of laudable instincts that make people feel good about being Conservatives (in a way the dog-whistle immigration policies, however important, don't necessarily). I have always seen this election as being as much about laying foundations for the party to build on as being an indication of what we can expect in 2009.

It also elevated Cameron above the squabbles of Blair and company, giving them enough rope to hang themselves over Dave the Chameleon and sleaze/incompetence scandals without the need for an overtly negative campaign.

And it has given the party space to continue the development of policies in other important areas. Obviously green issues are no substitute for strong, long-term policies on 'day-to-day' issues like crime and hospitals and economic competitiveness, but many of these issues are more a matter for national government. I think David Cameron, quite unlike Blair, has an instinct for the long-term and I look forward to seeing how his party reform programme develops.

Congratulations to any new councillors on this blog, and to campaigners everywhere.

[Tom Greeves]

By any stretch of the imagination a very good performance by the Tories.

Labour have been exposed as decadent and lame duckish. It's all over for Blair, even if he stays in post.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>Interestingly Francis Maude says that LibDems had worse night than Labour.<<<<
The results are being compared with those in 2004 when those opposed to the War in Iraq were at their most hostile to the government, and at the same time as Labour only got 22% in the Euro Elections, it was the low point for Labour of the last parliament - while support will fluctuate it is likely that the next 2 years Local Elections will be the same or worse simply because it is going to be a time in which the government looks to get it's most unpopular legislation this term over as all governments tend to.

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>It's all over for Blair, even if he stays in post.<<<<
He's going anyway in 2008 or 2009, he can't go back on saying that he's going to stand down before the next General Election with time for a new leader to establish themselves, he's committed to it now.

[CDM]

A superb performance, my faith in the party has been restored. Now the question is whether we can make progress in the north and the Celtic periphery, as even token representation there would make it much easier to win a majority.

[Patsy Sergeant]

David Cameron has got what Blair will never, ever have again, and that is YOUTH and freshness, and if that sounds hard or catty - don't waste your sympathy, just remember the way he has behaved over 10-12yrs. What do they say? ... What goes around comes around. However as far as Blair's ever standing down, he will NEVER stand down before he has beaten Mrs. Thatcher's record, I don't gamble, but I would put money on that being his motivation. On could almost feel sorry for Brown.. if he wasn't the particular political animal that he is (I mean 'animal' in the general sense not as an insult!)

[Matthew Sinclair]

What vote did the Imagine Party get?

[James Maskell]

Matthew, why ask the question?

[Robl]

Also, shouldn't somebody conduct an investigation into the conduct of Newsnight and its 'Conservatives to lose seats research'. Scandalous journalism and shoddy research.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"What vote did the Imagine Party get?"

A nice, round number I imagine (no pun intended).

[Chad]

:-)

Well I got invited to an outside broadcast with Emily Maitlis until I noted that I won't be standing any candidates until the issue of state funding has been resolved!

So, it's good to be at least hitting the media radar before putting up a single candidate!

[Chad]

Do you think perhaps the media might sense a sensible small c conservative alternative protest vote that might take some crucial votes off those nasty Tories at the general election.... ;-)

(obviously the situation won't occur if Cameron drops the state funding plans)